Directory:
1. Large token unlocking data for this week;
2. Overview of the crypto market, a quick read on the weekly popular coins' price changes/fund flows;
3. Bitcoin spot #ETF dynamics;
4. #BTC Liquidation map data interpretation;
5. Key macro events of the week and key forecasts and interpretations for the crypto market.
1. Large token unlocking data for this week;
This week, several tokens will experience a one-time unlocking event. Ordered by unlocking value as follows:
MOVE will unlock 50 million tokens on May 9 at 8:00 PM, valued at approximately $8.22 million, accounting for 2% of circulation;
Solayer (LAYER) will unlock 27.02 million tokens on May 11 at 10:00 PM, valued at approximately $78.35 million, accounting for 12.87% of circulation;
Aptos (#APT ) will unlock 11.31 million tokens on May 13 at 2:00 AM, valued at approximately $5.587 million, accounting for 1.82% of circulation.
The unlocking situations of these projects may have varying degrees of impact on the related markets. The above is in UTC+8 time, and the data is from CoinAnk.
We believe that this week's large unlocking events for multiple tokens need to be assessed comprehensively based on their circulation ratio, project fundamentals, and market sentiment to evaluate their potential impact:
MOVE will unlock 50 million tokens on May 9 (accounting for 2% of circulation), valued at approximately $8.22 million. Although the first unlock may raise community concerns about selling pressure, the unlocked funds are clearly aimed at ecological development and community support. If the project can attract developers through the scalability of modular application chains (such as connecting the EVM and Move ecosystems' technical advantages), short-term selling pressure may be partially offset by market expectations of application implementation. However, the current low circulation and high FDV (fully diluted valuation) characteristics still require vigilance against long-term unlocking pressure on prices.
LAYER will unlock 27.02 million tokens on May 11, valued at $78.35 million, accounting for 12.87% of circulation, the highest proportion among the three. Such a large-scale concentrated release may significantly increase market supply; if the project lacks short-term positive factors (such as ecological progress or partnerships), the token price faces considerable downside risk. Additionally, in a high FDV context, investors should pay attention to whether the recipients of the unlocked tokens (such as teams or institutions) have motives to sell.
APT will unlock 11.31 million on May 13 (accounting for 1.82% of circulation), valued at $5.587 million. Although the absolute value of the unlock scale is relatively high, its circulation proportion is relatively low, and Aptos has recently seen daily on-chain transaction volume exceeding 300 million, indicating strong ecological activity. The unlocking recipients include core contributors, the community, and investors, and the movements of major holders should be observed. If the unlocked tokens are used for staking or ecological incentives rather than selling, the market impact may be limited. However, it should be noted that APT's price has fluctuated significantly after historical unlocks, and it is necessary to judge based on the overall market trend.
Market insight: Managing circulation becomes a key variable; token unlocking essentially represents a rebalancing of supply and demand. High circulation projects (such as APT) can control short-term fluctuations due to ample market liquidity; while low circulation projects (such as LAYER) are more susceptible to shocks due to weak liquidity. Furthermore, unlocks during a bull market may be interpreted by the market as 'good news fully priced in,' and if the project lacks practical value support, it may face correction pressure after unlocking. Investors should pay attention to the transparency of the token economic model and the purpose of the unlocked funds, being wary of circulation manipulation risks.
2. Overview of the crypto market, a quick read on the weekly popular coins' price changes/fund flows.
CoinAnk data shows that in the past week, the crypto market, categorized by concept sectors, has seen net inflows in the Avalanche ecosystem, Arbitrum ecosystem, Optimism ecosystem, Solana ecosystem, Binance Smart Contract, fan tokens, and Real World Assets.
In the past 7 days, the list of tokens with the highest price increases (selecting from the top 500 by market capitalization) includes #VRA , FX, ABT, KMNO, and FORM, which have relatively high increases, and strong tokens can continue to be prioritized for trading opportunities this week.
3. Bitcoin spot ETF fund dynamics.
CoinAnk data shows that last week, the cumulative net inflow of the US Bitcoin spot ETF was $1.8051 billion, with four trading days experiencing a net inflow of funds. Over the past week, US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs purchased approximately 18,644 Bitcoins. During the same period, considering the mining efficiency after the Bitcoin halving (approximately 450 a day), global miners produced only about 3,150 Bitcoins. This means that the purchase volume of the ETF was nearly six times the production volume of miners during the same time. The total net inflow of the Bitcoin ETF has once again exceeded $40 billion, reaching $40.207 billion. The highest point of total net inflow for the Bitcoin ETF occurred on February 7, reaching $40.78 billion.
We believe that the recent fund inflow data for the US Bitcoin spot ETF reveals a significant imbalance in market supply and demand structure and the dominant role of institutional investors. Data shows that last week, the cumulative net inflow of ETFs, converted to purchase volume, was nearly six times that of miner output. This gap highlights that market demand far exceeds new supply, potentially exacerbating expectations of Bitcoin's scarcity, thus providing price support.
In terms of fund scale, the total net inflow of Bitcoin ETFs has exceeded $40.2 billion, approaching the historical peak (of $40.78 billion on February 7, 2025). BlackRock's IBIT fund continues to lead, reflecting the increasing tendency of institutional investors to allocate Bitcoin through compliant channels. It is noteworthy that the continuous net inflow of ETFs and the disparity with miner output may raise concerns about mid- to long-term liquidity in the market. If demand remains high while supply is constrained by inefficient mining post-halving (daily output of about 450 Bitcoins), the supply-demand conflict may further escalate.
However, the actual impact of ETFs on prices is limited. Although the total amount of Bitcoin held by ETFs has exceeded 5% of circulation, historical data shows that fund inflows do not necessarily drive prices to break previous highs. For example, in June 2024, when ETFs had continuous net inflows for 18 days, Bitcoin prices were still constrained by macro policies and geopolitical risks. Furthermore, some funds may originate from arbitrage strategies (such as spot long and futures premium trading) rather than pure bullish expectations. Therefore, the fund dynamics of ETFs need to be assessed in conjunction with macroeconomic cycles (such as Federal Reserve interest rate policies) and market structures (such as selling pressure from long-term holders).
The activity of Bitcoin ETFs confirms the rising recognition of it as a mainstream asset class, but the market needs to be wary of short-term fund-driven volatility risks and liquidity challenges under supply-demand imbalances. In the future, if ETF fund inflows continue to exceed miner output, combined with the initiation of an interest rate cut cycle, it may provide more solid support for Bitcoin prices to break through.
4. BTC liquidation map data.
CoinAnk liquidation map data shows that if BTC breaks $97,900, the cumulative short liquidation intensity on mainstream CEX will reach $4.389 billion. Conversely, if Bitcoin falls below $89,480, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on mainstream CEX will reach $4.636 billion.
We believe that based on market data and liquidation mechanisms, Bitcoin is currently facing significant liquidity risks in key price ranges. If BTC breaks $97,900, it could lead to cumulative short liquidation intensity on major exchanges reaching $4.389 billion, reflecting concentrated leveraged positions above that price. A breach could trigger concentrated short covering, pushing prices further upward. Conversely, if the price falls below $89,480, the long liquidation intensity will reach $4.636 billion, indicating that longs have accumulated high-risk positions below this support level, which could trigger a chain liquidation and exacerbate the downward trend.
Mechanically, liquidation intensity is not an absolute value but reflects the market vulnerability within a specific price range. High liquidation intensity indicates that the liquidity distribution near that point is more concentrated, and price breaches are likely to trigger a 'cascade effect.' For example, when shorts are forcefully liquidated at high positions, they must buy to cover, potentially creating a positive feedback loop; while forced selling by longs may amplify downward volatility. Current data also shows that as Bitcoin approaches historical highs, the leverage game between longs and shorts has entered a white-hot stage, and the defense and offense at critical points will directly affect the short-term market direction. It is worth noting that differences in data across different periods (e.g., discrepancies from threshold values in the problem) indicate that market risk structures dynamically adjust with price fluctuations and should be analyzed in conjunction with real-time position distribution.
5. Key macro events of the week and key forecasts and interpretations for the crypto market.
Monday: US April ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI;
Tuesday: The European Central Bank is holding a central bank forum until May 7;
Thursday: The Federal Reserve FOMC will announce the interest rate decision at 2:00 PM; Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference at 2:30 PM (UTC+8);
Friday: Permanent voting member, New York Fed President Williams will deliver a keynote speech at the 2025 Reykjavik Economic Conference; Federal Reserve Governor Cook will speak; 2025 FOMC voting member, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will give a welcoming and opening speech at a Federal Reserve event; Federal Reserve Governor Barr will speak.
We believe that the core of this week's macro events lies in the game between the Federal Reserve's policy signals and economic data, which may exacerbate volatility in the crypto market. Firstly, the US April ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.6, a two-year high, indicating that the service sector's expansion exceeded expectations, and the price index jumped to 65.1, suggesting rising inflation pressure. This data may reinforce the necessity for the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance, suppressing market bets on interest rate cuts, thereby creating short-term pressure on crypto assets.
Thursday's FOMC interest rate decision and Powell's press conference are particularly crucial. Historical experience indicates that Powell's dovish or hawkish tendencies directly influence market sentiment. For instance, in 2024, after he released signals for interest rate cuts, crypto assets surged significantly in a single day, while hawkish statements triggered sell-offs. If this meeting raises concerns about inflation stickiness or delays interest rate cut signals, it may lead to a correction in the crypto market. Conversely, if risks of economic slowdown are mentioned or liquidity tightening expectations are eased, it may become a short-term bullish factor.
In addition, multiple Fed officials speaking on Friday may convey signals of divergence. If Williams and other 'permanent voters' lean toward tightening, it may offset Powell's possible dovish remarks, leading to confusion in market expectations. Currently, the crypto market is strongly correlated with US stocks, and changes in liquidity expectations may amplify volatility.
Overall, strong PMI data has provided support for the Federal Reserve's 'higher for longer' interest rate policy, and the crypto market may face short-term correction pressure. However, if Powell unexpectedly releases dovish signals, it may trigger short covering. It is advisable to pay attention to subtle changes in policy language and real-time shifts in market sentiment indicators.
