Macroeconomic interpretation: The Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting early this morning concluded with the benchmark interest rate remaining unchanged. Although the dot plot maintains expectations for two rate cuts within the year, internal dissent is increasing, and divisions are becoming public. Chairman Powell has clearly stated that rate cuts need to be based on a sustained decline in inflation; this "data-driven" hawkish tendency has instantly dampened the market's enthusiasm for a July rate cut, with expectations plummeting to around 10%. The policy balance is swaying between economic growth and inflation control, uncertainty is rampant, and risk assets are feeling the pressure.
The delay in the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting window and the widening internal rifts undoubtedly cast a shadow over short-term liquidity in the crypto market, making volatility management a top priority. However, historical patterns indicate that once a rate-cutting cycle is established, the massive liquidity released in a low-interest-rate environment will ultimately benefit high-risk assets like Bitcoin, which retains long-term attractiveness due to its ability to counteract the dilution of the dollar's purchasing power.
In response, in the short-term market performance, the Bitcoin price is trapped in narrow fluctuations around $105,000, with mainstream coins like ETH and SOL generally experiencing slight declines, and MEME coins seeing more significant drops. Market trading volume is concurrently shrinking, as investors, under the dual pressure of the Federal Reserve's cautious stance and escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East (rumors of possible U.S. involvement in the Israel conflict), have significantly heightened their risk aversion, leading to a marked drop in risk appetite.
However, on-chain data reveals a deeper resilience in the market. Fidelity Digital Assets' latest report highlights a key trend: "10-year Bitcoin"—Bitcoin that has not moved for at least ten years—is accumulating at an astonishing rate. Since April of this year, an average of 566 BTC has joined this "ultra-long-term holding" camp each day, surpassing the approximately 450 BTC added daily by miners to the circulating supply. Currently, the total amount of Bitcoin that has been dormant for over ten years has exceeded 3.4 million coins, accounting for more than 17% of the total BTC mined. Fidelity expects that as the new coin output continues to decline post-halving, this category of "fossil-grade" Bitcoin will exceed 20% by 2030. Even more intriguing is that CoinAnk data shows that whether it’s whales or retail investors, the willingness to transfer Bitcoin to exchanges has fallen to a cyclical low. Holders’ silence and reluctance to sell amid market turmoil have built a strong support base.
Meanwhile, a revolution regarding the future of currency forms is quietly gaining institutional endorsement. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen publicly expressed a shocking viewpoint: cryptocurrencies will not threaten the dollar's hegemony; instead, stablecoins may become a new tool to reinforce its global dominance. She stated that digital assets are one of the most important phenomena in today's world, criticized past governments for neglecting them, and emphasized that this administration will fully promote the U.S. as a center for digital asset innovation. This stance resonates with Trump's recent high-profile call for the House of Representatives to swiftly pass the (GENIUS Act). The shift in political winds has ignited market enthusiasm: the cryptocurrency sector of U.S. stocks has reacted vigorously, with the stablecoin giant Circle's stock soaring 33.8%, and Coinbase rising 16%. Analysts from Wall Street firms Bernstein and Barclays unanimously believe that if the bill is passed by the end of summer, stablecoins will leap from payment tools within the crypto ecosystem to "the monetary track of the internet," opening explosive revenue growth opportunities for core infrastructure companies like Circle and Coinbase.
Currently, one side of the market is the uncertainty of macro policies suppressing risk appetite, while the other side is the astonishing holding power and long-term faith demonstrated by on-chain data—millions of Bitcoins have fallen silent over time, and the locking of chips is continuously strengthening. The regulatory thaw, especially the dawn of stablecoin legalization and institutionalization represented by the (GENIUS Act), injects structural benefits into the industry. It may not only reshape the global payment landscape and consolidate the dollar's digital era hegemony but also bring in substantial incremental funds and a compliance development framework from the traditional financial world into the crypto market.
Therefore, despite the short-term constraints posed by the Federal Reserve's "wait-and-see" stance and geopolitical turbulence, the crypto market, especially Bitcoin, continues to be driven in the long term by two core engines: the definitive trend of the global liquidity cycle turning towards easing, and the leap in industry infrastructure and mainstream acceptance brought about by stablecoin regulation. Investors need to maintain strategic composure amid volatility; time will eventually prove that silent holding and regulatory breakthroughs are quietly laying the groundwork for the next round of value reassessment.
BTC data analysis:
CoinAnk data shows that the price has remained high, fluctuating between $100,000 and $110,000, but on-chain data shows that the BTC reserves in exchanges have dropped to their lowest levels in recent years. Whether large institutional investors (whales) or retail investors, the quantity of Bitcoin transferred to trading platforms has significantly decreased, indicating a strong reluctance to sell among holders in the context of price fluctuations and a firm willingness to hold positions.
From the market structure perspective, this change in supply and demand reflects investors' recognition of BTC's long-term value. The decrease in exchange balances directly exacerbates the scarcity in circulation, while the continuous accumulation behavior of whales (such as new whales entering the market in 2025 at record speeds) contrasts with the exit of retail investors, which may shift the market from retail sentiment dominance to institutional allocation phase. Historical data shows that when whales accumulate during a market pullback, it often indicates a price rebound. Currently, BTC's annual volatility has dropped to historic lows, and risk-adjusted returns still outperform traditional assets, further solidifying its position as a store of value. However, one must be wary of liquidity risks—if the off-exchange market cannot absorb selling pressure, it may trigger a short-term sharp decline (as warned by the support levels indicated by the 2024 model). Overall, the rising concentration of holdings and supply contraction may be building momentum for BTC to break through the $110,000 resistance level, but changes in the macro economy (such as expectations of a contraction in U.S. GDP) remain potential disruptive factors.
