1. Comprehensive Analysis of Multi-Period Technical Patterns
1. Moving Average System and Price Position
6-Hour Chart: Moving Average Arrangement: MA(5) 1,769.22 → MA(10) 1,784.00 → MA(20) 1,792.00, price continues to be pressured below MA(20), with a clear bearish arrangement.
Trend Signal: MA(5) crosses below MA(10) forming a death cross, price rebounds to MA(10) then falls back, indicating a bearish medium to long-term trend.
4-Hour Chart: Moving Average Entanglement: MA(5) 1,740.86 → MA(10) 1,756.48 → MA(20) 1,769.22, price repeatedly tests the resistance of MA(10) (1,756.48), with insufficient short-term rebound momentum.
Key Signals: MACD histogram continues to shrink (DIF 1.2M vs DEA 1.4M), enhancing bearish pressure.
1-Hour Chart: Moving Average Pressure: MA(5) 1,722.01 → MA(10) 1,740.86 → MA(20) 1,756.48, price is below the moving averages, indicating a weakened short-term structure.
Candlestick Patterns: Consecutive bearish closes and the appearance of the 'Three Black Crows' pattern (1,769.22→1,722.01), with bearish momentum concentrated and released.
2. Support and Resistance & Volatility
Key Resistance: 6-Hour Level: MA(20) 1,792.00 → Previous High 1,840.00 (psychological resistance).
4-Hour Level: MA(10) 1,756.48 (recent high).
Key Support: 1-Hour Level: Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level 1,705.00 → Daily MA(50) 1,680.00 (strong support).
Volume Validation: Dense trading near 1,705.00, breaking below may trigger stop loss selling pressure.
Volatility Indicator: ATR (14): Average true range of 68.5 points on the 6-Hour Chart, ATR of 34.2 points on the 1-Hour Chart, current volatility is at a medium-high level.
3. Candlestick Patterns and Reversal Signals
6-Hour Chart: Shooting Star Pattern: The latest candlestick closed with a long upper shadow (high of 1,792.00 → close of 1,740.86), indicating dominant selling pressure.
Downward Three Methods: Three consecutive bearish candlestick bodies cover the previous day's gains, continuing the bearish trend.
1-Hour Chart: Evening Star: After rebounding to a high of 1,756.48, it closes with an 'Inverted Hammer + Bearish Candlestick' combination, confirming the failure of the reversal signal and the continuation of the downtrend.
Fractal Indicator: A 'lower low' fractal appears on the 1-Hour Chart (1,722.01→1,740.86→1,756.48), increasing the risk of support failure.
4. Capital Flow and Buying/Selling Power
Volume Distribution: 6-Hour Chart: Volume shrank to 3.68M during the rebound phase (1,756.48→1,792.00), while it increased to 7.42M during the downtrend (1,792.00→1,722.01), indicating a bearish dominance.
Order Flow Analysis: Depth chart shows sell orders accumulating above 1,756.48 (72% of the order volume), with bulls lacking breakthrough momentum.
Funding Rate: Current funding rate -0.03%/hour, reflecting a bearish dominance in the futures market, with leveraged funds accelerating the trend.
Spot ETF Data: A net outflow of $52 million yesterday, institutional selling pressure continues, and retail investors' willingness to bottom fish is low.
5. Position and Risk Control Status
Hypothetical Scenario: Holding Long Position: If currently holding a losing position, suggest stopping loss and reversing to open shorts (logic detailed below).
Short Position Holding: Holders may maintain until the target, with trailing stop loss dynamically adjusted.
2. Trading Instructions
Trading Direction: Short
Execution Reason: Trend Resonance: 6-Hour Main Downtrend + 4-Hour Rebound Exhaustion + 1-Hour Three Black Crows, multi-period bearish arrangement resonance.
Momentum Validation: Shooting Star + Evening Star pattern confirms selling pressure, with funding rate and order flow strengthening the bearish logic.
Risk-Reward Ratio: Stop loss at 1,756.48 (above resistance), take profit at 1,705.00 (Fibonacci support), risk-reward ratio 1:3.2 (stop loss 54.4 points, take profit 165 points).
Volatility Adaptation: 1.5 times ATR (34.2 points) covering the stop loss range, avoiding noise interference.
Confidence Level: 9 (based on multi-period trends and volume validation).
Stop Loss Price: 1,756.48 (6-Hour MA(10) + dense order flow area).
Take Profit Price: 1,705.00 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level + 1-Hour MA(50) pressure).
Trailing Stop Loss Percentage: 0.0007 (activated after price breaks below 1,722.01, locking in 7% retracement profit).
3. Strategy Logic Supplement
Key Validation Point: Bullish Counterattack: If the price breaks above 1,756.48 with increased open interest, stop loss and observe.
Bearish Acceleration: After breaking below 1,705.00, the target looks down to 1,680.00 (Daily MA(50)).
Market Environment: Macroeconomic Bearish: Expectations for Fed interest rate hikes are rising, liquidity in the cryptocurrency market is contracting, and both technical and fundamental factors are resonating downward.
Cryptocurrency Linkage: BTC/USDT exchange rate breaks below key support, spreading panic sentiment in the derivatives market.
4. Operation Suggestions
Number of Contracts: No more than 1% of account net worth, single trade risk ≤3%.
Limit Order Strategy: Enter limit orders (choose timing in the range of 1,722.01→1,756.48), avoiding market price slippage.
Dynamic Monitoring: Check order flow and funding rate changes every hour, if funding rate rises to below -0.01%, reduce position and observe.
Conclusion: Currently, ETHUSDT is in a stage of strengthening bearish trend, suggesting opening shorts to capture the downtrend, with strict stop loss at 1,756.48 and target at 1,705.00.$ETH