Trade Instructions
1. Trading Direction: Light Position Short
Opening Price Range: 1,805.00 - 1,810.00
2. Execution Reason
Moving Average and Price Pattern Verification
Moving Average Pressure: Current 5-day (1,795), 10-day (1,800), and 20-day (1,806) moving averages are aligned bearish, MA20 (1,806) and 24-hour high (1,828) forming a resonance resistance band. Price has tested the 1,805-1,810 range multiple times without success, showing bearish strength in this area.
Alligator Line Signal (Core of Chaos Trading Method): If the 5/10/20 moving averages are viewed as Alligator Lines (lips/teeth/jaw), the current price is below the jaw line (MA20), and the three lines are diverging downwards, in line with the 'Alligator Sleeping' state in chaos theory, indicating high trend continuation.
Momentum and Fractal Structure
Momentum Indicator: 4-hour MACD histogram converging below the zero axis (Chart 3), but no golden cross formed, RSI (45) and KDJ (K/D<40) show weak fluctuations, lacking reversal momentum.
Fractal Resistance: Recent price has formed multiple local highs in the 1,805-1,810 range, forming a fractal resistance band, consistent with the 'non-equilibrium point' logic of chaos trading, triggering bearish signals.
Market Sentiment and Capital Game
Funding Rate: Negative funding rate (-0.17%) shows bears have to pay fees, but the order book sell orders are densely accumulated between 1,810-1,828, indicating bears still control the liquidity gate.
Position Change: 24-hour position decreased (Chart 3 shows 'position volume' reduction), indicating some bears took profits, but no large-scale short squeeze was triggered; the market remains biased toward defensive layouts.
Risk Control and Risk-Reward Ratio Optimization
Stop-Loss Setting: 1,830.00 (trigger stop-loss after breaking 24-hour high of 1,828), covering false breakout risk.
Take Profit Logic: First target at 1,780 (mid-band support), second target at 1,742 (24-hour low), risk-reward ratio 1:3.2 (stop-loss 25 points, take profit 80 points).
Trailing Stop: 0.0005 (0.05%), activated when the price drops to 1,780, locking in profits.
3. Confidence Level: 6/10
(Bearish trend dominant but beware of liquidity traps in low-volatility markets, suggest position ≤3%)
4. Stop-Loss Price: 1,830.00
5. Take Profit Price: 1,742.00
6. Trailing Stop Percentage: 0.0005
Strategy Summary
Core Logic:
Technical Resonance: Price under pressure from moving average resistance band (1,805-1,810) and fractal structure, combined with Alligator line bearish signal, forming a high-probability short window.
Capital Verification: Negative funding rate and sell orders accumulation indicate bearish dominance, but caution is needed for short-term rebounds (strict stop-loss if price breaks 1,810).
Risk Management: Using 'light position + wide stop-loss' strategy in low-volatility markets to avoid being shaken out.
Operation Suggestion:
Opening Position: Enter when price rebounds to 1,805-1,810, position ≤3%.
Additional Position Conditions: If volume breaks below 1,780, can add 1% position, target 1,742.
Exit Signal: Price breaks 1,830 or daily close above 1,820, unconditional stop-loss required.
