Trade Direction: Open Short
Opening Price Range: 93,889.2-93,934.5 (Rebound Resistance Zone)
Execution Reason: Trend Resonance: Bearish engulfing on 1-hour + three crows on 4-hour, multi-period bearish signals resonate.
Order Flow Verification: Dense sell orders above 93,934.5 (accounting for 78%), difficult to break through.
Risk-Reward Ratio: Stop loss at 93,958 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level), take profit at 92,400 (Fibonacci extension level), profit-loss ratio 1:2.8 (stop loss 608 points, take profit 1,000 points).
Confidence Level: 8 (need to confirm the validity of the 1-hour engulfing pattern).
Stop Loss Price: 93,958 (4-hour MA20 + 1.5 times ATR volatility).
Take Profit Price: 92,400 (4-hour MA40 + Fibonacci target).
Trailing Stop Loss Percentage: 0.0007 (activated after price breaks 93,840.5, 0.7% drawdown locks in profit).
Strategy Logic Strengthening
Key Verification Point: Bullish Counterattack: If the 1-hour close stands above 93,934.5 (MA20) with volume expanding to 6,000 BTC, need to stop loss and exit.
Accelerated Decline: After breaking 93,840.5, 4-hour MACD death cross (DIF < DEA), can add 20% position.
Market Environment Adaptation: Macro Risk: Bitcoin spot ETF net inflow has slowed to $120 million, and weekend liquidity shortages may exacerbate volatility.
On-chain Warning: Bitcoin network active addresses decreased by 8% weekly, developer activity index decreased by 10% monthly, fundamentals under pressure.
$Position Management Plan
First Position: Place orders in the range of 93,889.2-93,934.5 (60% position), stop loss at 93,958.
Add Position: Chase the position after breaking 93,840.5 (30%), stop loss moves down to 93,889.2.
Take Profit Stages: First target 93,840.5: Close 40% (1-hour Bollinger Band lower limit).
Second Target 92,400: Close 50% (Fibonacci target).
Tail Position: Use moving average line tracking (MA40 dynamic suppression).
Conclusion: Currently, BTCUSDT is in a multi-period bearish resonance phase. It is recommended to open a short position in the rebound range of 93,889.2-93,934.5, with a strict stop loss at 93,958 and a target of 92,400. This strategy needs to be cautious of false signals from the 1-hour bearish engulfing pattern. If the price breaks through 93,934.5 with volume, stop loss immediately.
