1. Multi-Period Technical Pattern Comprehensive Analysis
1. Moving Average System and Price Position
15-minute chart: Moving Averages Bearish Arrangement: MA5 (146.32) < MA10 (146.61) < MA20 (147.03), price (146.51) is below MA5, short-term trend is bearish.
Bollinger Bands: Price is close to the lower band (145.28), the middle band (146.61) is forming pressure, and the channel is opening downwards.
1-hour chart: Moving Averages Death Cross: MA5 (146.85) crosses below MA10 (147.03), price breaks below MA20 (146.54), medium-term momentum weakens.
MACD Signal: DIF (146.28) and DEA (146.61) death cross, histogram negative value expanding (-0.33).
4-hour chart: Moving Averages Convergence: MA5 (145.40) and MA10 (146.54) are densely clustered in the 145.40-146.54 range, the price is below the moving averages, showing a bearish bias.
2. Support and Resistance with Volatility
Key Resistance: 15-minute chart: MA10 (146.61) and Bollinger Bands upper band (147.03).
4-hour chart: Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level 147.20 (assuming previous high point 153.38).
Key Support: 15-minute chart: Bollinger Bands lower band (145.28) and Fibonacci extension level 144.80.
4-hour chart: MA20 (145.40) and Bollinger Bands middle band (146.54).
Volatility Indicator: ATR (14): 1-hour ATR 1.13 (amplitude 1.13%), 4-hour ATR 2.89, volatility is in the contraction phase.
3. K-line Combination and Reversal Signals
15-minute chart: Three Black Crows: Three consecutive bearish candles (147.03→145.28), MACD histogram negative value is expanding, bearish momentum is increasing.
Inverted Hammer Line: The latest K-line closed with a long upper shadow (high point 146.61 → close 146.51), suggesting selling pressure testing.
4-hour chart: Bearish Engulfing: Bearish candle body (146.61→145.28) covers the previous bullish candle, OBV indicator declines (12.79M→12.54M).
4. Buying and Selling Power and Capital Flow
Order Flow Analysis: Sell orders accumulating: Orders above 146.61 account for 72% (about 1,200 SOL), a breakout needs to expand to 3,000 SOL/minute.
Buying Support: 65% of buying in the range of 145.28-145.40, liquidity is concentrated but intensity is average.
Funding Rate: Perpetual contract rate -0.03%, shorts dominate, discount margin is widening.
On-Chain Data: Exchange SOL inventory increased by 3% weekly, whale addresses reduced holdings by 8,000 SOL, derivative market selling pressure continues.
2. Trading Instructions
Trading Direction: Short
Entry Price Range: 146.61-146.85 (rebound resistance zone)
Execution Reason: Trend Resonance: 15-minute Three Black Crows + 4-hour Bearish Engulfing, multi-period bearish signals resonate.
Order Flow Validation: Dense sell orders above 146.85 (accounting for 72%), high probability of rebound resistance.
Risk-Reward Ratio: Stop loss at 147.20 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level), take profit at 144.80 (Bollinger Bands lower band), profit-loss ratio 1:3.2 (stop loss 0.19 points, take profit 0.32 points).
Confidence Level: 8 (volume-price coordination + on-chain selling pressure data support).
Stop Loss Price: 147.20 (4-hour Fibonacci resistance + 1.5 times ATR volatility).
Take Profit Price: 144.80 (Bollinger Bands lower band + Fibonacci extension level).
Trailing Stop Percentage: 0.0007 (activated after price breaks below 145.40, 0.7% drawdown to lock in profits).
3. Strategy Logic Reinforcement
Key Verification Point: False Breakout Defense: If the 15-minute close is above 147.03 and trading volume expands to 5,000 SOL/minute, a stop loss and reverse to long is needed.
Accelerated Decline: After breaking below 145.28, 4-hour MACD death cross (DIF < DEA), can increase position by 20%.
Market Environment Adaptation: Related Market Monitoring: If BTC breaks below $93,000, SOL may follow downwards; if BTC stabilizes at $94,000, SOL may rebound to test 148.00.
Ecological Risk: Solana network delay issues persist, developer activity index down 12% month-on-month, fundamentals under pressure.
4. Position and Risk Control Plan
Current Position Suggestion:
If already short as per original strategy (146.61-146.85), hold and track stop loss to 147.20.
If no position held: Wait for two signals: Volume breaking below 145.28 (trading volume > 5,000 SOL/hour), chase the short entry;
After failing to rebound to 147.20, left side gradually build shorts.
Market Environment Adaptation:
Volatility Management: When the Bollinger Bands width > 0.005 (volatility recovery), can reassess breakout strategy.
Conclusion: Currently, SOL is in a multi-period bearish resonance phase, recommending to short in the rebound range of 146.61-146.85, strict stop loss at 147.20, target 144.80. This strategy should be cautious of the potential reversal risk of the 15-minute inverted hammer line; if the price breaks above 147.20 with volume, then stop loss immediately.
