$ETH Trading Direction: Open Short
Execution Reason: Moving Average Pattern: Daily Level (3rd Chart): 5/10/20 moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, with prices continuously under pressure below the moving averages, indicating a bearish medium to long-term trend.
4-hour Level (1st Chart): Moving averages are intertwined, but the price has failed to stabilize above the 20 moving average (around 1,840), indicating insufficient short-term rebound momentum.
1-hour Level (2nd Chart): The price is repeatedly hindered around 1,797, the 5 moving average crosses below the 10 moving average forming a death cross, indicating a weakening short-term structure.
Support and Resistance: Key Resistance: 1,800-1,820 range at the 4-hour level (recent high point concentration), 1,850 at the daily level is strong resistance.
Key Support: 1-hour level 1,780 (recent low), breaking below may accelerate to 1,750.
Candlestick Signal: The 1-hour chart shows a continuous appearance of 'upper shadow' patterns (like multiple spikes and pullbacks around 1,797), indicating strong selling pressure.
Daily MACD continues to operate below the zero axis, 4-hour MACD histogram shrinks and then expands downwards again, enhancing bearish momentum.
Market Sentiment: Whale selling 30,000 ETH triggered a chain reaction, with a noticeable short-term capital outflow (depth chart shows sell orders accumulating above 1,800).
Trading volume shrinks during the rebound (2nd Chart), indicating insufficient bullish confidence.
Risk-Reward Ratio: Stop loss at 1,820 (above resistance), take profit at 1,750 (previous low support), risk-reward ratio of 1:3.5, meeting risk control requirements.
Position Handling: If currently holding long positions, it is recommended to go long near 1,800 during a rebound and then open a short position.
Confidence Level: 8
Stop Loss Price: 1,820
Take Profit Price: 1,750
Trailing Stop Percentage: 0.0006 (activated after the price breaks below 1,780, locking in 0.6% pullback profit).
Logical Supplement:
Trend Conflict: The main downward wave on the daily chart has not ended, the 4-hour rebound is weak, and after a failure in the 1-hour rebound forms a 'lower high', meeting conditions for bearish position addition.
Key Verification: If the price breaks through 1,820 with volume (daily 20 moving average), stop loss and wait; if it breaks below 1,780, you can add to short positions, targeting 1,720.
Market Environment: Macroeconomic liquidity tightening, coupled with ETH on-chain selling pressure (whale liquidation risk), technical and fundamental aspects resonate downwards.
Core Strategy: Trend-following short, utilizing the daily main trend and the exhaustion of the hourly rebound to capture the second wave of decline.