📊 April 9 Market Analysis
The CEO of BlackRock has publicly stated that the market needs to be prepared for a 20% systemic correction and emphasized that this risk has been incorporated into their asset allocation considerations. He pointed out that an increasing number of corporate executives are already feeling early signs of economic recession in their actual operations. The U.S. is currently facing a "double whammy"—stubborn inflation + slowing economic growth, against this backdrop, the market trend is showing extreme instability.
Since the introduction of the new round of tariff strategies, global capital markets have experienced severe fluctuations, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield previously dropping to 3.9% before rapidly rising to 4.4%. Such a large fluctuation is extremely rare in history. Although gold and U.S. Treasuries have traditionally been viewed as safe-haven assets, hedge funds have recently continued to sell U.S. Treasuries, indicating that the market's risk-hedging logic is changing.
What is even more concerning is that the Federal Reserve may be forced to cut interest rates early and continuously due to the risks of market collapse and recession, with market predictions indicating that the likelihood of a rate cut in May has risen to 55%, and some analysts even believe that there could be 4-5 consecutive rate cuts.
📈 Technical Analysis
In the face of macro uncertainty, the crypto market has not been immune. Although there has been some capital entering to buy the dip in the short term, the overall situation remains in a weak oscillating pattern:
MACD Indicator: Still in the bearish zone, although the green momentum bars are gradually shrinking, the trend has not fully reversed;
RSI Indicator: Close to 30, indicating weak momentum;
Bollinger Bands: Current prices are supported near the lower band, and the hourly candlestick chart shows multiple bullish candles as bulls attempt to counterattack;
KDJ Indicator: Formed a golden cross, indicating short-term upward momentum.
Short-term Support Levels: $75,750, $74,750, $73,500
Short-term Resistance Levels: $78,500, $79,500, $81,500
📍 Summary
Against the backdrop of giants like BlackRock issuing "systemic correction" warnings, market risk aversion sentiment continues to rise. Bitcoin has experienced a short-term rebound due to technical support, but the extent of the rebound is still constrained by overall macro pressure. Currently, it seems that the tug-of-war between bulls and bears will continue, and one should not hastily declare a reversal.
