📊 April 14 Market Analysis

Last week, the latest CPI and PPI data released in the U.S. were both below market expectations, signaling a short-term decline in inflation. However, the minutes from the Fed's March monetary policy meeting conveyed a more cautious tone, with most officials believing that 'inflation may be more persistent,' which weakened the market's optimism for rapid rate cuts.

💵 According to CME's 'Fed Watch,' as of now, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in May has risen to 39.8%, while the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is 60.2%. This indicates that while the market expects easing, consensus has yet to be reached.

In this context, this week will focus on the European Central Bank's interest rate decision and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech, which may provide more clues for the next phase direction of the market.

📈 Technical Analysis

Bitcoin rebounded today to $85,590, strongly approaching the short-term key resistance range ($86,141 - $88,770). This area is a densely traded range from previous highs, with significant pressure from trapped positions, becoming an important point of divergence in the market.

From a structural perspective, the current market has entered a high-level oscillation range, and the technical indicators show that bullish momentum is gradually weakening. If it cannot break through the upper pressure with volume, the rebound may face a phase-ending.

Key Position Analysis:

Resistance range: $86,141 - $88,770

This range is a densely traded area from previous highs, accumulating a large amount of selling pressure.

If BTC cannot break through with volume, it is likely to trigger profit-taking by bulls and a counterattack by bears.

Support level: $81,250

This is the starting point for the current rebound and also a watershed for bullish and bearish sentiment.

If it stabilizes after a pullback, it may form a potential 'double bottom' structure, continuing the rebound.

If it breaks below this level, it may trigger a deeper adjustment.

RSI Indicator (4-hour level): Approaching the overbought area (above 70), indicating short-term pullback pressure.

Volume: As prices rise, the volume shows a shrinking trend, indicating insufficient momentum for chasing prices, making breakthroughs more difficult.

Structural Form: The daily level shows a clear oscillation structure. If it cannot break through the previous high subsequently, it will form a 'secondary high,' intensifying bearish expectations in the market.

📍 Summary

Currently, BTC is in a key decision area, and the short-term contest between bulls and bears will revolve around the 86,000-88,000 range. If a strong breakthrough of the resistance area cannot be achieved, one should be wary of the risk of a pullback after a rise.

With the European Central Bank's decision and Powell's speech approaching this week, volatility may increase. It is recommended to closely monitor policy trends and changes in capital sentiment.