📊April 10 Market Analysis
This week, global markets experienced significant volatility, especially with the "tariff suspension" event signaling a turning point.
U.S. President Trump suddenly announced a 90-day suspension of comprehensive tariffs, unifying existing tariffs at 10%, aiming to buy time for the resumption of trade negotiations between China and the U.S. This news was initially seen as positive, leading to a surge in the three major U.S. stock indices: the Nasdaq soared 12.16%, the S&P rose 9.51%, and the Dow increased nearly 8%. At the same time, Bitcoin also experienced a strong rebound, rapidly rising from around $74,500 to approximately $83,500.
However, it is important to note that while this policy delays impacts, it does not eliminate long-term risks. Currently, the market is likely only experiencing a temporary rebound, and the real bullish turning point has yet to be confirmed.
The Federal Reserve's stance is cautious:
The latest meeting minutes indicate that inflation may continue to exceed expectations, and most members believe that keeping interest rates unchanged is a safer option. Although the market has begun to bet on a possible series of rate cuts 4-5 times within the year, no substantial shift in Fed policy has yet been observed.
📊Technical Analysis
The daily candlestick chart forms a “single bearish and single bullish” pattern; despite a rapid decline, there are no consecutive bearish candles, indicating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. However, the price is still operating below the moving averages, and the technical trend remains bearish.
Short-term signals:
On the 4-hour chart, the double bottom formation is nearly complete, with the rebound facing resistance near the previous high of $83,500. The upper Bollinger Band is under significant pressure, increasing short-term pullback pressure.
Key support and resistance levels:
Support: $81,200 (intraday pullback support)
Resistance: $83,500 (previous breakout point), $85,000 (downward trend line)
If the price cannot effectively stabilize above $83,500 during the day, the rebound may struggle to continue.
Indicator overview:
MACD: Short-term momentum is recovering, but the fast and slow lines remain in a death cross structure;
RSI: Returning to neutral territory, momentum is gently rising;
Bollinger Bands: Candles are close to the upper band, with a potential for short-term pullback correction.
The current phase still belongs to the oversold rebound window and is not a confirmed trend reversal point.
🔍Risk Control Reminder: CPI data will be released tonight, which is a potential trigger point for significant volatility; be sure to manage your positions and stop-losses carefully.