Niko安安

📊April 10 Market Analysis
This week, global markets experienced significant volatility, especially with the "tariff suspension" event signaling a turning point.

U.S. President Trump suddenly announced a 90-day suspension of comprehensive tariffs, unifying existing tariffs at 10%, aiming to buy time for the resumption of trade negotiations between China and the U.S. This news was initially seen as positive, leading to a surge in the three major U.S. stock indices: the Nasdaq soared 12.16%, the S&P rose 9.51%, and the Dow increased nearly 8%. At the same time, Bitcoin also experienced a strong rebound, rapidly rising from around $74,500 to approximately $83,500.

However, it is important to note that while this policy delays impacts, it does not eliminate long-term risks. Currently, the market is likely only experiencing a temporary rebound, and the real bullish turning point has yet to be confirmed.

The Federal Reserve's stance is cautious:
The latest meeting minutes indicate that inflation may continue to exceed expectations, and most members believe that keeping interest rates unchanged is a safer option. Although the market has begun to bet on a possible series of rate cuts 4-5 times within the year, no substantial shift in Fed policy has yet been observed.

📊Technical Analysis
The daily candlestick chart forms a “single bearish and single bullish” pattern; despite a rapid decline, there are no consecutive bearish candles, indicating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. However, the price is still operating below the moving averages, and the technical trend remains bearish.

Short-term signals:
On the 4-hour chart, the double bottom formation is nearly complete, with the rebound facing resistance near the previous high of $83,500. The upper Bollinger Band is under significant pressure, increasing short-term pullback pressure.

Key support and resistance levels:
Support: $81,200 (intraday pullback support)
Resistance: $83,500 (previous breakout point), $85,000 (downward trend line)
If the price cannot effectively stabilize above $83,500 during the day, the rebound may struggle to continue.

Indicator overview:
MACD: Short-term momentum is recovering, but the fast and slow lines remain in a death cross structure;
RSI: Returning to neutral territory, momentum is gently rising;
Bollinger Bands: Candles are close to the upper band, with a potential for short-term pullback correction.

The current phase still belongs to the oversold rebound window and is not a confirmed trend reversal point.

🔍Risk Control Reminder: CPI data will be released tonight, which is a potential trigger point for significant volatility; be sure to manage your positions and stop-losses carefully.
$BTC

Trump, you old fool 🫠
If it weren't for your eight hundred ideas a day
I wouldn't be playing like this
Originally, it was so comfortable to go from 0.025 to 0.037
But I just can't hold on to it 🥲🥲🥲

Bought some Vine $VINE
The average price keeps rising🫠
Recently, the Musk effect seems to be gaining momentum, and BTC's second test of its rebound strength is still decent. Waiting for a wave of market movement🛫

📊 April 9 Market Analysis

The CEO of BlackRock has publicly stated that the market needs to be prepared for a 20% systemic correction and emphasized that this risk has been incorporated into their asset allocation considerations. He pointed out that an increasing number of corporate executives are already feeling early signs of economic recession in their actual operations. The U.S. is currently facing a "double whammy"—stubborn inflation + slowing economic growth, against this backdrop, the market trend is showing extreme instability.

Since the introduction of the new round of tariff strategies, global capital markets have experienced severe fluctuations, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield previously dropping to 3.9% before rapidly rising to 4.4%. Such a large fluctuation is extremely rare in history. Although gold and U.S. Treasuries have traditionally been viewed as safe-haven assets, hedge funds have recently continued to sell U.S. Treasuries, indicating that the market's risk-hedging logic is changing.

What is even more concerning is that the Federal Reserve may be forced to cut interest rates early and continuously due to the risks of market collapse and recession, with market predictions indicating that the likelihood of a rate cut in May has risen to 55%, and some analysts even believe that there could be 4-5 consecutive rate cuts.

📈 Technical Analysis
In the face of macro uncertainty, the crypto market has not been immune. Although there has been some capital entering to buy the dip in the short term, the overall situation remains in a weak oscillating pattern:

MACD Indicator: Still in the bearish zone, although the green momentum bars are gradually shrinking, the trend has not fully reversed;
RSI Indicator: Close to 30, indicating weak momentum;
Bollinger Bands: Current prices are supported near the lower band, and the hourly candlestick chart shows multiple bullish candles as bulls attempt to counterattack;
KDJ Indicator: Formed a golden cross, indicating short-term upward momentum.

Short-term Support Levels: $75,750, $74,750, $73,500
Short-term Resistance Levels: $78,500, $79,500, $81,500

📍 Summary
Against the backdrop of giants like BlackRock issuing "systemic correction" warnings, market risk aversion sentiment continues to rise. Bitcoin has experienced a short-term rebound due to technical support, but the extent of the rebound is still constrained by overall macro pressure. Currently, it seems that the tug-of-war between bulls and bears will continue, and one should not hastily declare a reversal.

#美国加征关税
#行情预测

Yesterday, Bitcoin quickly rebounded after testing the support at 96500, breaking through the key resistance level of 97500, and reached a high of around 98900. From the trend, market bullish sentiment is relatively strong, but in the short term, attention should still be paid to the strength of the pullback support. If Bitcoin pulls back and stabilizes in the range of 97500-98000, consider gradually building long positions, with a short-term target looking towards 99000 or even the round number of 100000. If it breaks below the support of 97500, caution is advised, and it is not suitable to blindly chase long positions; wait for clearer rebound signals. At the same time, today is Saturday, and the market is relatively quiet, with a higher probability of fluctuations, so avoid chasing highs and cutting losses.

As Bitcoin approaches the 99000 mark, altcoins are starting to show significant recovery, and market sentiment is gradually becoming more active. In particular, the meme sector is performing outstandingly, and yesterday's prediction that "altcoins are ushering in a recovery opportunity" has been validated. From the flow of market funds, some mid-to-small market cap coins are attracting capital inflow, and there may be further upside potential in the short term.

Currently, bullish sentiment dominates the market, but weekend capital activity is limited, so overall patience is needed to wait for a breakthrough at critical levels. If Bitcoin can successfully break through the 99000 mark, it will bring further upward momentum to other mainstream coins and altcoins, and the market may welcome a new round of correlated trends.
Daily focus
Support levels
97500 96000

Bitcoin Weekend Market Analysis: Bears in Control, Focus on Key Support
In the past two days, Bitcoin has generally maintained a range-bound fluctuation, with the 4-hour chart showing prices under pressure at the middle Bollinger Band, continuously operating in the middle-lower band area, reflecting the current weakness of bullish momentum. Currently, bearish forces dominate, and the short-term trend remains weak, but there is mysterious capital defending around 93000.
Technical Analysis:
The key resistance level above is still near last week's high, and the downward trend of the moving average system exerts pressure on prices, making the probability of a significant rebound in the short term low.
The 60-day moving average near 92500 is currently an important support. Once it is breached, it may trigger a new round of decline, and the market will face greater adjustment risks.
Market Opportunities: Altcoins Shine
Bitcoin's market share is gradually weakening, and bearish pressure provides more opportunities for altcoins. It is expected that around New Year's Day, market sentiment may improve or a new round of altcoin trends may begin. Key Focus:
ETH and its Ecosystem: Recent net inflows into Ethereum ETFs have started to increase, which may lead to a significant surge.
RWA Sector: Tokenization of Real-World Assets (RWA) is a recent hot narrative and is expected to become a focus of capital chasing.
MEME Sector: Led by DOGE, MEME coins may see good gains after being dormant for over a month.
Strategic Suggestions:
If Bitcoin fails to break through the upper resistance, it is recommended to shift the focus of layout to hot sectors. For BTC, if it pulls back to the key support of 92500 and stabilizes, short-term positioning can be attempted, but close attention should be paid to changes in trading volume and market sentiment.
Summary:
In the short term, Bitcoin is operating under a weak trend, and altcoins are expected to take over and perform. The operation should focus on flexibly responding to market rhythms, seizing local opportunities, and managing risks well.

Intra-Day Focus
Support Levels
92500 87200

At present, the Bitcoin market still maintains a wide range of intraday fluctuations, and the price fluctuates around 98,000. From the market point of view, the market has entered a short-term repair and consolidation stage. Although the intraday fluctuation range reaches thousands of points, the overall trend has not deviated from the fluctuation range.

Short-term market analysis:
The trend of Bitcoin is currently showing a slight pressure, mainly subject to the pressure of the 100,000 mark. This price range is considered to be the core area of ​​the market's long and short game. If the price can effectively break through and stand firm at the 100,000 mark, the market is expected to usher in a strong wave of rising prices. If it fails to break through, the suppression of this mark may cause the price to fall further.

Subsequent focus:
Breakthrough of the 11,000 mark: This key point is both a psychological barrier and a technical pressure point. The breakthrough of the market requires the cooperation of trading volume.
2. Continuation of the fluctuation range: In the absence of major news or capital inflows, Bitcoin may continue to maintain a wide range of fluctuations in the short term. Investors need to focus on whether the support area below is stable.
3. Changes in market sentiment: At present, the overall market sentiment is cautious, and both long and short sides are waiting for clearer direction signals.

The recent Grayscale Selection craze has begun to cool down, and the prices of some altcoins have gradually returned to the level after the plunge last Friday. As I said yesterday, don't chase high prices at this time, especially for currencies with high short-term speculation risks. The current stage may be an opportunity for some high-quality projects to bottom out again. For the medium and long term, this is actually a good time to re-arrange.

Intraday focus
Support level
97800 95000

In yesterday's market analysis, I reminded of the daily level reversal of the big cake. I didn't expect that the big cake had not officially started, and the cottage had already collapsed. The main reason was that the number of initial unemployment claims for the week ending November 9 was 217,000, which was lower than the expected 223,000, showing the resilience of the job market. Although the data is good for the economy, it also reduces the need for the Fed to cut interest rates, which is one of the reasons why Powell subsequently made hawkish remarks. From a macro perspective, the strong performance of employment data may continue the tight monetary policy and affect the capital flow in the crypto market. Crypto assets may face short-term volatility pressure.
It's almost the weekend again. When liquidity is low, the dog dealer can play freely, but this week I personally prefer to have a strong cottage performance. When it's not my turn to hold a position, I still have to watch more and do less to avoid making things worse. At the same time, the opportunity to lay out the cottage is coming soon, and the appropriate target will be synchronized in time.
Focus on
Support level
86300 81300

$ACT I don't want to talk about you anymore

Bitcoin reached 89,000 this morning, continuing to set new highs. From a technical perspective, there are no resistance levels above Bitcoin; currently, how high it can rise depends entirely on market sentiment. However, short-term indicators show a very high divergence rate, indicating an expectation of small-scale pullbacks; any rapid pullback is an opportunity to buy the dip.

Key Focus

Support Levels

86,600 83,800

The current cryptocurrency market is experiencing a surge in heat, with the asset size of spot Bitcoin ETFs reaching 84 billion USD, and trading volume hitting its highest point since March, reflecting investors' high attention and demand for Bitcoin. However, investors should be cautious of the accompanying risks. The rapid rise in Bitcoin's price brings considerable returns, but also comes with high valuation pressure and short-term speculative sentiment, which may lead to increased price volatility.

Currently, one can only look for opportunities in strong altcoins, as the meme king Dogecoin continues to dance, driving the zoo market. Friends who don’t understand chart analysis can pay more attention to some correlated altcoins.

doge-shib-mask

floki-token

neiro-NEIROETH

popcat-wif

The Federal Reserve's interest rate adjustment at three in the morning was expected, and Bitcoin began to correct after reaching 76800, currently fluctuating around 76000. It is anticipated that Bitcoin will continue to oscillate at high levels; those holding it will not sell, and those without it do not dare to buy. Therefore, we only need to pay attention to the cumulative open contract quantity of Bitcoin and wait for a significant correction before positioning ourselves.

Today's strong performance of Ethereum and SOL has led to a flourishing ecosystem. In terms of performance alone, the SOL series is outperforming that on Ethereum. Currently, we can focus on the lower market cap SOL ecosystems listed on Binance, such as: FIDA, TNSR, etc. The weekend market will also revolve around strong altcoins, and we can participate in short-term trading after a correction.

After Trump won the election yesterday, looking back at his crypto-friendly statements at the Bitcoin Conference, it can be expected that his inauguration will bring a series of major benefits to the crypto industry. His earlier promised policies indicate that he will be committed to ending regulatory pressure on the crypto industry, so we can only say that the industry may usher in a wonderful four years.

But even if the ending is good, the process is definitely tortuous. In the early morning, the big cake hit the historical high of 76,400 and then started to fluctuate and step back. The current price is around 74,500. A reversal signal appeared at the 4-hour level. At present, it will fluctuate at a high level. It is not ruled out that it will start to pull back after the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting at 3 a.m. tonight. Combined with the low liquidity on the weekend, it is recommended not to chase high intraday operations and pay attention to strong cottages

Focus

Support level 73,400 71,100

This week's big events⬇️
Recently, the fluctuations have been really large, control your hands and avoid opening positions to outperform 80% of people🫴🏻

Bitcoin started to pull back after the PCE data was released last week, dropping to around 67,500 over the weekend, nearly a 10% retracement from the peak. Currently, it seems that many funds are fleeing due to significant events in the past few days, with even investment guru Warren Buffett gradually selling assets and reducing his holdings in U.S. stocks, resulting in a historical high in cash reserves, which has triggered panic and led to a very poor market situation. During this period, the only strategy is to wait for a downward spike to position some spot trades, and the rest is to patiently await the bloom.

Key Focus

Resistance Levels 69,500 70,500

Support Levels 68,200 67,000

To be honest, I think SHIB is very strong

At 8:30 tonight, Beijing time, the United States will release October unemployment rate and seasonally adjusted non-farm employment data. This is key data before the election and the next Fed interest rate cut meeting, and has attracted much market attention. The market expects the unemployment rate to remain at 4.1% in October, and non-agricultural employment growth is expected to be 113,000, significantly lower than the previous value of 254,000.

The actual performance of unemployment and non-farm data will have a profound impact on the economic outlook, monetary policy direction, and the crypto market. If the unemployment rate is higher than expected and non-agricultural growth is lower, this may indicate that the labor market is gradually slowing down, thereby exacerbating market concerns about an economic slowdown and increasing expectations for the Federal Reserve to shift to easing policies.

If this expectation is strengthened, it will help promote the recovery of risk asset prices, and the crypto market may have a positive reaction, as it is particularly sensitive to loose policies. On the contrary, if the unemployment rate remains at or lower than expected and the number of non-farm payrolls significantly exceeds expectations, it will show that the labor market remains stable and inflationary pressures may continue, which may strengthen the Fed's cautious attitude in cutting interest rates. This will cool down easing expectations, which may put pressure on risky assets, and crypto market volatility may rise accordingly.

After Bitcoin dropped to around 71400 yesterday, it started to rebound. Early this morning, it made another attempt to reach a new high but only touched 72900 before pulling back. The current price is around 72300. Looking at the intraday situation, Bitcoin is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Today is also the last day of October, and the monthly line will close tomorrow. The strong performance in October has already reversed the trend, and we are looking forward to the market in November. Today's operation will still focus on low long positions.

Key Points of Attention

Support Levels 71700 70800

Key Insights

(At 8:30 PM Beijing time tonight, the US will announce the year-on-year core PCE price index for September (expected to be 2.6%) and the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending October 26 (expected to be 230,000). If the core PCE exceeds expectations, it will indicate that inflation pressure remains significant, potentially triggering market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike, which would support the dollar and put pressure on the stock market and gold; conversely, if it is below expectations, it may indicate a moderation in inflation, supporting the stock market and applying pressure on the dollar.

Similarly, if the initial jobless claims exceed 230,000, it may suggest a weakening labor market, alleviating market worries about interest rate hikes; on the other hand, employment data that is below expectations will indicate market resilience, possibly leading the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance, thereby boosting the dollar and negatively impacting risk assets.

Yesterday, Bitcoin touched a low of 69,760 in the early session, then began to oscillate upwards, reaching a high of 73,620 in the early morning before pulling back, currently priced around 72,400. Review analysis shows that the larger trend remains in a bullish position, with the 70,000 round number likely to break through. The 4-hour chart has not shown signs of upward exhaustion, so continuing to hold a bullish view aligns with this judgment.

Currently, Bitcoin is in a bullish state, and the intraday operation suggests considering low buys during minor pullbacks; chasing highs is not recommended.

At the same time, at 8:15 PM tonight, the United States will announce the October ADP employment figures, with a previous value of 143,000 and an expectation of 115,000. The ADP employment figures are an important indicator of new jobs added in the private sector of the United States, usually released two days before the Department of Labor announces the non-farm employment data. It’s worth paying attention to the release of the few important data points for October, as this will affect next month's interest rate reduction meeting.