📊April 11 Market Analysis

Recently, the U.S. announced a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs, pressing the 'pause button' on global trade friction. On the surface, this move provides breathing space for the market, but the 10% basic tariff is still in effect - this is four times the average tariff level in the U.S. for 2024, posing substantial cost pressure on corporate production and multinational trade.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve still maintains a high interest rate policy, its cautious stance indicates that monetary policy has not yet 'turned dovish'. On the balance of inflation and growth, the Federal Reserve is performing a precise balancing act.

💵'Danger signals' behind falling inflation:

The U.S. CPI data released last night seems favorable on the surface, but actually hides concerns.

The annualized CPI inflation rate is lower than expected, giving the market a brief sigh of relief;

But more importantly, the CPI monthly rate unexpectedly recorded a negative value, indicating that the U.S. economy may have already started sliding towards deflation.

The signs of deflation are not a good omen - it can suppress consumption, hurt investment, leading to declining corporate profits, weak employment, and ultimately dragging down overall economic vitality. This is something the Federal Reserve will not ignore.

Current inflation is low, but it has not reached a sustainable 'soft landing' state. The market's focus is gradually shifting from 'whether to cut interest rates' to 'when to confirm a recession.'

🔍Macroeconomic signals: The shadow of recession is approaching.

U.S. stocks plummeted, with the Dow down 3.5% and the Nasdaq down as much as 5.2%;

In March, CPI year-on-year only grew by 2.4%, slightly lower than expected, but exposing weak end demand;

The dollar index fell to a nearly 7-month low, the renminbi also weakened, while the euro unexpectedly strengthened, indicating that Europe may gain a temporary 'arbitrage window' in the global economic adjustment.

These signals are gradually pointing to a possible approaching reality - the risk of the U.S. economy entering a recession is sharply increasing.

📈Technical Analysis:

Daily level:

Yesterday's large bullish line broke through the neckline and is currently testing the support area;

4-hour level:

It has not broken the key support level of $77,300, short-term rebound space still exists;

First resistance: $81,200

Second target: $81,700

Strong resistance range: $83,000 - $83,500

💡USDT market share:

Although it has not broken the trend support, it is still 'highly volatile', indicating that the market has not yet entered a true risk preference stage, and is still in a period of consolidation.