This week's token unlock analysis:

Cheelee (#CHEEL ) will unlock approximately 20.81 million tokens at 8:00 AM on April 13, worth about $161 million;

Aptos (#APT ) will unlock approximately 11.31 million tokens at 4:00 PM on April 12, accounting for 1.87% of the current circulation, worth about $53.7 million;

Saga (#SAGA ) will unlock approximately 133 million tokens at 4:00 PM on April 9, accounting for 118.54% of the current circulation, worth about $35.1 million;

Axie Infinity (#AXS ) will unlock approximately 9.09 million tokens at 9:10 PM on April 12, accounting for 5.68% of the current circulation, worth about $24.5 million;

Movement (#MOVE ) will unlock approximately 50 million tokens at 8:00 PM on April 9, accounting for 2.04% of the current circulation, worth about $18.5 million.

The unlocking situation of these projects may have varying degrees of impact on the related market. The above times are in UTC+8. This week, pay attention to the negative effects brought by token unlocks, avoid spot trading, and seek shorting opportunities in contracts. The chart is from coinank data.

We believe that the large token unlocks of multiple projects this week may put significant pressure on short-term prices. First, the scale of the unlock and its ratio to circulation are core observation indicators. For example, the unlock volume of SAGA tokens accounts for 118.54% of the current circulation, far exceeding the market's normal absorption capacity, which can easily trigger a sell-off. Secondly, although tokens like APT, AXS have lower unlock ratios (1.87%-5.68%), the absolute amounts exceed ten million dollars. Coupled with the currently tight market liquidity macro environment, this may amplify price volatility.

The impact of token unlocks on the market has a characteristic of expectation. Evidence shows that about 90% of unlock events lead to price declines within 14 days, especially for team unlock categories, where the average decline can reach 25%. Among the unlocking projects this time, both Cheelee and Aptos involve the release of shares for early investors, and historical data shows that the short-term negative impact of such unlocks is particularly significant.

For projects with high circulation ratios (like SAGA), the risk-reward ratio for shorting is relatively reasonable, but investors should be wary of some project parties potentially mitigating selling pressure through price manipulation. It is recommended that investors pay close attention to changes in on-chain chip distribution before and after the unlock, especially the movements of large addresses, rather than solely relying on the unlock values themselves. In the medium to long term, the market will return to project fundamentals, but in the short term, price corrections caused by supply and demand imbalances are difficult to avoid.