Bitcoin Market Analysis and Trading Strategy on April 14, 2025

One, Weekly Level Key Pattern Verification

Currently, Bitcoin has formed a 'pin bar new low followed by a rebound' doji pattern for 5 consecutive weeks on the weekly chart, similar to the bottom oscillation after the '519 crash' in 2021 (which opened a bull market after 2 months). From on-chain data, the $78,000-$80,000 range is a concentrated accumulation area for institutions; if the price can hold this support, it may replicate historical trends in the mid-term and form a reversal structure.

Two, Daily Level Bull-Bear Game Focus

1. Technical Pattern Analysis

• Trendline Breakout Confirmation: The daily line has broken the descending trendline near $86,100, and the MACD double lines are close to the zero line; if a golden cross forms and the histogram turns red, it will confirm the return of bulls.

• Moving Average System Resistance: The current price is under pressure from MA60 (about $85,500) and MA120 ($88,000-$90,000), needing to focus on breakout momentum. If it breaks above MA120 with volume, the target could be $93,000 (Fibonacci extension level + 2024 high).

• Key Support: The daily level must hold above $81,300-$82,800 (weekly chip center + EMA120); if it breaks, it may retreat to the institutional cost area of $78,000-$80,000.

2. Market Signal Verification

• On-Chain Selling Pressure: Miners' selling volume has decreased to an average of 12,000 BTC per day over the past week, but there is a net outflow of $300 million from exchanges, indicating that long-term holders are still accumulating.

• ETF Capital Flow: Spot ETFs like IBIT continue to see net inflows, but GBTC experiences continuous outflows creating a hedge, indicating short-term funding still has divergences.

Three, 4-hour Level Short-Term Operation Logic

1. Dynamic Adjustment of Support and Resistance

• Short-term Support:

◦ First Defense Line: $82,800 (4-hour EMA30 + concentrated chip area)

◦ Second Defense Line: $81,300 (Daily MA7 + trendline pullback level)

◦ Extreme Situation: If it breaks below $81,300 with volume, beware of a waterfall market triggered by leverage liquidation.

• Rebound Pressure:

◦ Preliminary Resistance: $87,300 (4-hour MA200 + previous high conversion level)

◦ Core Resistance: $93,000 (MA120 + historical psychological level)

2. Volume-Price Divergence Risk

Currently, the 4-hour level shows a MACD top divergence (price new high but momentum weakens); if it rebounds to around $87,300 without a single hour buying more than 5,000 BTC, beware of false breakouts.

Four, Multi-Cycle Resonance Trading Strategy

1. Bullish Opportunity

• Steady Long: If the price stabilizes after a pullback to $82,800-$81,300 (4-hour closing price must be above EMA7), build a light position, stop loss at $80,500, target $87,300-$93,000.

• Breakout Long: If the daily volume expands (single-day trading volume ≥ $25 billion) and breaks above $88,000, a pullback to $85,500 can be used to go long, target $93,000, with a trailing stop loss for protection.

2. Bearish Opportunity

• Rebound Short: If the price tests $87,300 and shows signs of stagnation (such as a long upper shadow + RSI overbought), establish a short position, stop loss at $89,000, target $82,800-$80,000.

• Breakout Short: If the 4-hour candlestick breaks below $81,300, short on the rebound at $82,500, target $78,000, stop loss at $83,800.

Five, Extreme Market Conditions Warning and Risk Control

• Key Event Disturbance: The U.S. March retail sales data will be released tonight; if the actual value exceeds the expected 5.8%, it may strengthen rate hike expectations, triggering a correlated downturn in the cryptocurrency market.

• Position Management: It is recommended to keep total positions below 50%, with additional positions not exceeding 20% when breaking key levels, and strictly enforce a 3% loss limit.

Summary

Bitcoin is currently in a weekly level trend reversal window, and after breaking the descending trendline on the daily chart, it needs to validate the strength of MA120 resistance. Proposed action:

• Short-term: Use $82,800 as the dividing line for long and short, and buy low and sell high within the range;

• Mid-term: Focus on long-term value layout opportunities between $78,000-$80,000.

Beware of black swan events such as stock market volatility and regulatory policies.