April 10, 2025 Bitcoin Market Analysis and Trading Strategy

I. Key Signal Analysis at Daily Level

1. Long and Short Game and Support Resistance Verification

Yesterday, Bitcoin on the daily chart strongly rebounded from a low of $74,600 to $83,600, closing at $82,650, showing short-term rebound momentum. The current price is contesting around MA7 ($82,000-$79,250). If it effectively breaks this support, it may pull back to $79,250 (weekly chip center + previous low conversion point); if it holds, it is expected to test MA30 ($84,500-$85,000), and breaking through may open up space above $85,000.

• MACD Signal: The daily MACD shows bearish contraction, and the DIF and DEA lines are close to convergence, indicating potential momentum for a golden cross, but confirmation of trend reversal requires volume support.

2. Institutional Behavior and Market Sentiment

Recently, institutions have continued to accumulate in the range of $76,000-$90,000, indicating that the long-term value logic remains unchanged. However, on-chain data shows miners sold 24,000 BTC (approximately $1.85 billion) in a single day, indicating short-term supply pressure still exists.

II. 4-Hour Level Technical Patterns

1. Short-term Support and Resistance Game

The 4-hour chart shows that the price has formed short-term support near $81,300 (EMA7 + chip accumulation area). If it breaks below, it may test MA30 ($78,500-$79,200); the strong resistance above is at MA200 ($84,000-$84,500), resonating with the daily resistance.

• MACD Signal: The 4-hour MACD forms a golden cross and the histogram increases, but the RSI (58) is close to the overbought zone, so caution is needed for false breakout risks.

2. Volume Verification and Trend Change Risk

During the rebound, trading volume decreased by 35% compared to the previous day, and a shrinking rebound may weaken its sustainability. If it breaks above $84,500, it needs to be accompanied by a daily trading volume of over $30 billion.

III. Trading Strategy and Risk Control Suggestions

1. Long and Short Boundary and Trading Plan

• Bullish Opportunity:

◦ Pullback Long: If the price retreats to $79,250-$80,000, take a light position, stop loss at $78,500, target $82,000-$84,500.

◦ Breakout Long: If it firmly stands above $84,500 with volume, pull back to $83,800 to go long, target $85,000-$86,000.

• Bearish Opportunity:

◦ Rebound Short: If the price reaches $84,300-$84,500, build short positions in batches, stop loss at $85,500, target $81,300-$79,250.

◦ Breakout Short: If it directly breaks below $79,250, rebound to $80,000 to short, target $77,000-$75,000.

IV. Summary and Outlook

Currently, Bitcoin is in a consolidation and recovery phase after a sharp drop. The daily level needs to break above $84,500 to confirm a trend reversal, while the 4-hour level needs to hold the support at $81,300. The suggested action is:

• Short-term: $84,500-$79,250 as the boundary between long and short, mainly focusing on selling high and buying low;

• Medium-term: Pay attention to the medium to long-term layout opportunities in the institutional cost zone of $75,000-$78,000.

Risk Warning: Be cautious of black swan events such as escalation of the China-US trade war and ETF capital outflows.