On Friday, US stocks saw trading volume hit a new high since 2025, with 21 billion shares changing hands, indicating increased capital activity. Today, in the Asian timezone, Bitcoin also began a violent surge, briefly stabilizing at $86,000, and SOL shot up to $138.
Can this rebound continue? Is there a possibility of a 'trap'? Can it break through $90,000 in one go? These questions can actually be understood from several angles.
🔹 1. First, clarify what stage the market is in now? — 'Military build-up period'
The volatility of the crypto market often resembles an RTS game (real-time strategy game, like (Red Alert)(Warcraft)).
In the game, the battles between both sides do not erupt at any time, but there is a period where both sides develop their economy, accumulate resources, and build armies until one side feels confident enough to launch an attack.
The same goes for cryptocurrencies; the past week or two has been a typical low-volatility oscillation period, where everyone is 'developing' and accumulating liquidity.
From the futures market perspective, this transition from low volatility to high volatility often sees some key liquidation areas emerge. Recently, the market has formed three relatively dense liquidity liquidation areas:
The short position liquidation area at $88,000 above (currently liquidated)
The support area at $83,000 below (long position - not liquidated)
The long position liquidation area at $78,000 further below (long position - not liquidated)
The logic here is simple: the market always seeks liquidity, and liquidity consists of leveraged funds, stop-loss orders, and liquidation points. When the market 'trains' in a low-volatility area to a certain extent, it will choose to break through these liquidity areas, triggering larger market movements.
🔹 2. How is the current market capital flowing?
(1) Why did BTC suddenly surge this time?
This Bitcoin surge appears to be a market sentiment recovery, but the underlying capital structure has two key factors:
1️⃣ The shorts in the futures market have been squeezed: in recent days, the short positions in the BTC futures market have been increasing, leading to many shorts being forced to close their positions (buying back) once the price breaks upwards, further driving up the price.
2️⃣ The demand in the spot market is gradually recovering: previously, the $87,000 - $95,000 range did not have sufficient buy support, but during this pullback to around $83,000, buying in the spot market began to increase, providing momentum for price rebounds.
Therefore, this rise is more of a liquidity-driven rebound rather than a true breakout bull market; to directly break through $90,000 or even $100,000, we still need to watch the subsequent spot demand and capital volume.
(2) Why did SOL and the altcoins behind it move differently?
Recently, there have been many rumors about SOL, with the core points being:
Jump Trading (the largest market maker for SOL in the last bull market) is suspected to be returning, indicating that market liquidity may improve.
Ecosystem projects are banding together, intending to create a 'momentum' in the market, which in some ways is also a counterattack against the BNB ecosystem.
This means that the recent surge in the SOL ecosystem may not only be a return of market consensus, but rather, it looks like funds that have preemptively positioned themselves in hotspots are driving the market.
🔹 3. How to judge future trends?
The market is currently still in a range-bound oscillation, with the core upper and lower limits roughly at:
📌 Upper limit of the range: $95,500
📌 Lower limit of the range: $78,500
As long as BTC does not break this range, do not be overly optimistic or pessimistic; treat it as a range for swing trading.
If US stocks continue to rise tonight, BTC may still have upward space, with funds first flowing into BTC and then into altcoins.
The capital flow should be: US stocks > BTC > altcoins; capital outflow is the opposite: altcoins > BTC > US stocks.
🔹 Conclusion: What trading strategy is suitable now?
In the short term, it is still a range-bound oscillation, and it is not advisable to aggressively chase the rise.
As long as BTC fluctuates between $78,500 and $95,500, it should be treated as range trading; do not blindly FOMO (fear of missing out).
When approaching $90,000 - $93,000, be cautious of risks, as it may be a short-term peak; consider shorting.
If it retraces to around $80,000 and market funds remain active,consider bottom-fishing to go long.