#山寨指数 hit a new low since September last year, repeating the #BTC blood-sucking market, with the trading volume in the cryptocurrency market declining nearly threefold from its peak.
Macroeconomic Interpretation: Today, Goldman Sachs analyzes that recent U.S. stocks may continue to underperform overseas markets. This macro-level unease hangs like the sword of Damocles over the entire risk asset market. Interestingly, just as traditional markets are swaying on the seesaw of economic growth and inflation concerns, capital is staging a mass exodus in cryptocurrency, with Bitcoin's market capitalization share increasing, which we will discuss in conjunction with the altcoin index.
The Federal Reserve's monetary policy dance is becoming increasingly perplexing. BMI's chief economist observes with great insight: although March's inflation data has somewhat retreated, commodity prices may rise again due to the resurgence of tariffs from the Trump era. This 'inflation boomerang' effect plunges market expectations into chaos. Russell Investments bluntly states that the fundamentals of the U.S. economy are as robust as a fitness coach, making it unnecessary to rush into rate cuts before May or June. In this policy fog, Bitcoin seems to have found a new narrative pivot—when the pricing logic of traditional assets is challenged, the safe-haven attribute of digital gold is being revalued.
In the winter of altcoins, Coinank's altcoin seasonal index has fallen to an annual low of 13 points, the lowest since September 2024. This cold figure starkly announces that only 13 of the top 100 cryptocurrencies have outperformed Bitcoin, and the market is witnessing a spectacle of 'all currencies returning to one.'
DeFiance Capital points out that the 'fat protocol theory' has entered its final chapter; those infrastructure projects valued at a thousand times their income are like meteors wearing the emperor's new clothes, rapidly falling under the weight of reality. This structural shift has made the market realize that the blockchain world may not need so many ostentatious facilities, but rather applications that genuinely create value.
The technical aspects of the ETH/BTC exchange rate are akin to a horror movie, with the RSI value also hitting a historical low. More critically, there is a fundamental crisis—Solana has completed a comeback in DEX trading volume against Ethereum, and this 'new wave overtaking the old' scenario has exacerbated ETH's plight. When VanEck data shows that the spot Bitcoin ETF has absorbed $129 billion in liquidity, it seems we see the market voting with their feet: in times of uncertainty, investors prefer Bitcoin's blunt instrument over the flashy moves of altcoins.
It is interesting to note that the surge in USDT wallet activity is like fireflies in the dark, indicating the lurking interest of off-exchange funds. Coupled with a 2.8% drop in core CPI, this 'ammunition hoarding' phenomenon resonates subtly with the Federal Reserve's possible policy shift. Like the calm before a storm, the market is awaiting the revelation from the March 18 FOMC meeting—will it be 'hawkish backfire' or 'dovish delay'? This monetary policy game will be a key variable determining the direction of risk assets.
The technical aspects of Bitcoin itself are equally gripping. Matthew Hyland delineates the $89,000 lifeline, which serves as both a dividing line for bulls and bears and a litmus test for market psychology. This figure holds hidden significance: if it can hold steady, it means the upward channel that started from $69,000 remains valid; if it fails, it may trigger a 'long liquidation' chain reaction. Notably, Coinank data shows that Ethereum is facing record sell-offs, and this 'abandoning the car to save the commander' capital migration may instead serve as a booster for Bitcoin.
The cryptocurrency market is experiencing the growing pains of value return. As speculative bubbles are punctured one by one, and macro fog envelops the landscape, Bitcoin unexpectedly finds itself in the script of a 'warlord in chaotic times.' However, the market is always full of dark humor—while analysts debate endlessly, on-chain data shows that whale addresses are quietly increasing their holdings. This may corroborate the old saying: when everyone is focused on the charts, the real players have already laid their plans in the shadows. In the future cryptocurrency arena, whether Bitcoin can maintain its throne may be hidden within the seemingly chaotic yet logically coherent market rhythms.
In this smoke-free capital war, Bitcoin is powerfully demonstrating the hardcore narrative of 'you are still you.' As altcoins tremble in the winter, the brilliance of digital gold is increasingly shining in the furnace of macro tightening—after all, in the survival game, liquidity is king, and Bitcoin remains the fiercest predator in this jungle.
Data Analysis:
Coinank data shows that the daily trading volume of the cryptocurrency market has fallen from a peak of $563 billion on February 4 to just $200 billion now. #BTC has also dropped significantly. Recently, the trading volume in the cryptocurrency market has continued to decline since February 26, and prices are still at risk of falling again.
We believe that the current volume-price relationship in the cryptocurrency market has triggered structural risks. Since the end of February, the total trading volume in the market has shrunk by more than 60%, and has decreased only threefold from the trading volume at the beginning of February. This liquidity contraction shows a significant negative correlation with investor sentiment. Analyzing from the perspective of behavioral finance, the continuous decline in trading volume is not simply a technical adjustment but rather a concrete manifestation of a collective shift in market participants' expectations.
The synchronized wait-and-see stance of institutional investors and retail investors creates a dual source of pressure. On the one hand, institutional funds are more inclined to hold positions without clear fundamental support, leading to a lack of large buy order support in the market; on the other hand, after the FOMO sentiment among retail investors fades, risk preferences return to rational ranges, making any price rebound difficult to achieve sustained breakthroughs.
It is worth noting that the market is potentially falling into a liquidity trap. When price fluctuations show an inverse relationship with trading volume, it often indicates that the market has entered a stalemate phase of long and short battles. Observing from historical cycles, this divergence between volume and price typically requires a significant catalyst (such as regulatory breakthroughs or technological innovations) to break the equilibrium; otherwise, it may evolve into a low-volatility decline pattern.
Research models indicate that the current market recovery requires volume to align with prices for positive resonance. If there is no effective increase in trading volume in the next two weeks, even if short-term prices experience a technical rebound, their sustainability will be questioned. Investors are advised to closely monitor on-chain large transfer data and changes in derivatives market positions, as these leading indicators may provide key validation for trend reversals.
