The key level of 84216, which has been a focus in previous issues, has been breached, briefly supported by the red bar. The best-case scenario is to reclaim the yellow price range of 89100 to 90800 by the end of this week.
If it cannot effectively reclaim, then the next observation position will be at 75000 to 78000 (which is also the long-awaited CME futures gap). Wait for confirmation of price action and participate according to position and preference.
Macroeconomics and Policy:
Nvidia's earnings report released on February 27, 2025, showed that the company's revenue reached $39.331 billion, a 78% year-over-year increase, far exceeding the market expectation of $38.05 billion; the full-year revenue also increased by 114%, and net profit grew by 145%.
Despite the impressive data, the stock price fluctuated significantly in after-hours trading following the earnings report, ultimately dropping by 0.75%. Although both revenue and profit exceeded expectations, Bloomberg noted that the extent of the outperformance was the smallest since February 2023, and the upward movement in earnings was also the lowest since November 2022.
Market expectations for Nvidia have become extremely demanding, with investors not only expecting 'exceeding expectations' but also hoping for 'significantly exceeding expectations.' The launch of a low-cost, high-performance model by the Chinese AI company DeepSeek has raised market concerns, with investors questioning whether the tech giant's massive spending in the AI field is sustainable, which could potentially affect the demand for Nvidia GPUs. Additionally, uncertainty regarding U.S. chip export control policies may also limit Nvidia's future market expansion.
Nvidia's price-to-earnings ratio is at a historical high, and investor concerns about the sustainability of high growth are causing stock price volatility. Although Jensen Huang emphasized strong demand for Blackwell chips (with $11 billion delivered in the fourth quarter) during the conference call and forecasted continued growth in 2025, the market still doubts the long-term demand for 'inference' AI computing power.
Although Nvidia's earnings report did not fully eliminate market concerns about high valuations and competitive pressures, it temporarily alleviated the pessimistic expectation of 'peak computing demand' by demonstrating technological leadership and demand resilience. Investors need to pay attention to the subsequent speed of AI application implementation and policy risks.
Bitcoin has recently experienced severe volatility, with the price dropping 22.85% from its January peak. On February 27, it traded at $84,570, and over $1 billion in leveraged long positions were liquidated within three days. The current price has significantly deviated from the market average cost, indicating a technical need for a rebound. If it breaks below the psychological level of $80,000, it could trigger a larger-scale sell-off.
The Trump team is considering establishing a cryptocurrency policy position, which, if realized, could promote regulatory clarity and attract more institutional funds. However, recently, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have seen a net outflow of $2.24 billion over six consecutive days, indicating the vulnerability dominated by short-term retail funds.
Bitcoin's volatility is higher than that of traditional safe-haven assets (such as gold). Under the uncertainty of Federal Reserve interest rate policies and geopolitical risks (such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict), its safe-haven attributes may be repriced.
Investors need to dynamically adjust strategies in conjunction with macroeconomic data (such as the Federal Reserve's PCE inflation indicator) and geopolitical changes.
On-chain Data Trends:
Short-term holder data is nearing historical low regions (purple area, with the black line representing Bitcoin price trends).
A significant outflow of addresses holding more than 100 coins on-chain is occurring, and the large whales' outflow is generally not a good sign.
ETF Funds:
The largest outflow since BlackRock's issuance.
Trading Opportunities:
The large whale buying mentioned in previous issues or a structural shift at a smaller level has not yet occurred. If 90800 cannot be reclaimed this week and continues to drop below 82000, then the CME futures gap area below can be anticipated. Keeping a close watch on large on-chain transactions and ETF fund flows can help better avoid losses due to impulsiveness.
