Bitcoin's price is approaching the coach's bull-bear average line, which is also the support range for several major adjustments.
At the same time, the CME gap that everyone is watching has been filled, but caution is needed as gaps often appear to be pierced before being recovered. That is, the price is in the previously mentioned range of 75000～78000. Waiting for confirmation of price action.
Macroeconomics and Policy:
There is a disconnect between current U.S. economic data and public pessimism. Data shows that the U.S. job market remains strong (unemployment rate dropped in January), initial claims for unemployment benefits are low (despite recent disturbances from short-term factors like snowstorms), and there has been no significant deterioration in the stock market or inflation indicators (such as PCE). From an objective data standpoint, the economy has not fallen into recession, indicating robust economic fundamentals.
Meanwhile, public sentiment has shown a downturn, with consumer confidence indexes (such as those from the Conference Board and the University of Michigan) experiencing significant declines, marking the largest drop since 2021. Polls indicate that most people are dissatisfied with Trump's tariff policy and economic management, worrying about inflation rebound and economic recession.
Trump suddenly announced an earlier effective date for tariffs on Canada and Mexico (from the originally scheduled April 2 to March 4) and threatened to expand the scope of tariffs. This erratic policy signal triggered market panic, causing global stock markets to decline and funds to flow into government bonds for safety. It is evident that policy uncertainty has stimulated public sentiment.
Although the current inflation rate (CPI 3%) has decreased from its peak, Trump's tariff policy may drive up the prices of imported goods, exacerbating inflationary pressures. About 60% of respondents believe that tariffs will lead to rising prices, creating a 'self-fulfilling prophecy' vicious cycle, increasing inflation expectations.
The decline in consumer confidence mainly stems from pessimistic expectations about the future, rather than the current economic situation. For instance, Walmart's stock plummeted due to its forecast of slowing future sales growth, reflecting market concerns about long-term economic momentum.
Investors are selling risk assets (such as stocks) and turning to safe-haven assets like government bonds, leading the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to fall below critical support levels. Bonds have become a 'safe haven' again, reflecting the market's bets on economic slowdown.
Although recent economic data (such as retail sales) has been weak due to seasonal factors, the market is more concerned with forward-looking signals (such as corporate earnings guidance and policy uncertainty). This sensitivity to 'catching shadows' has intensified volatility.
Trump's tariff threats and social media have amplified market volatility, and investors need to be wary of his 'expectation management' efforts to manipulate asset prices. Currently, the risk of economic recession is limited, but if inflation heats up again due to tariffs, the Fed's policy space will be constrained, increasing stagflation risks. Avoid chasing after assets (such as gold and Hong Kong stocks) that have accumulated a lot of profit, and focus on rotation opportunities between safe-haven assets (government bonds) and economically sensitive assets (cyclical stocks).
The disconnect between market sentiment and reality may gradually converge with key data (such as PCE) and policy implementation, but the policy uncertainty of the Trump era will continue to be a core variable disrupting the market.
On-chain data trends:
Pay attention to the purple part in the above chart and the price characteristics of previous declines.
Addresses holding more than 100 coins have started to show inflows, while holders with less than 100 coins have significantly outflowed. If whale addresses can continue to show increased inflows, it would be a good signal.
ETF Funds:
ETF outflows have begun to diminish.
Trading Opportunities:
In previous editions, we mentioned monitoring the movements of large whales on-chain. If the current buying can be sustained and magnified, and the price completes a gap filling action (such as breaking and recovering), combined with changes in small-scale structural formations, it could represent a good participation opportunity (72～75～78). At least within this large gap area, there is still trading space.
