From "scam" to belief, why do I dare to predict Bitcoin in ten years? Back then, I also thought, "Isn't this thing just a string of code?"
Recently, people have been asking me, "How much do you think Bitcoin will rise in ten years?" To be honest, this question is as difficult to answer as asking me, "What will the housing price be in Beijing in ten years?" But as a player who has been beaten by the market for many years and has survived by chance, today I want to put aside the K-line chart and talk to you about my deduction from the perspective of capital logic, economic cycles and social changes.
However, before I begin, I must be honest: predicting the future is essentially the same as fortune-telling. Even Mr. Buffett admits that he doesn’t understand Bitcoin, let alone an ordinary person like me? But fortunately, Bitcoin’s historical data is transparent enough, and there are always traces of economic laws to follow. In this long article today, I will try my best to break down the complex logic in "human language."
(Friendly reminder: The full text is about 10,000 words long, requiring 15 minutes to read. It is recommended to bookmark it for later.)
I. History does not repeat itself, but it always rhymes: Bitcoin's 'Frenzied Cycle'
To predict the future, one must first understand the past. Since Bitcoin's birth in 2009, it has gone through three iconic cycles. The driving forces, participants, and price patterns of each cycle are distinctly different, but there is a hidden line behind them—capital moving from the margins to the center.
1. Geek Experimentation Period (2009-2017): From Pizza to $20,000, driven by 'Faith Generation'
On May 22, 2010, programmer Laszlo Hanyecz bought two pizzas for 10,000 Bitcoins. At today's price, these two pizzas are worth over $1 billion—likely the most expensive fast food in human history.
However, at that time, Bitcoin was essentially a 'social experiment' for a group of tech geeks. They pursued decentralization, anti-censorship, and a cryptographic utopia. Price volatility depended entirely on community sentiment:
In June 2011, Bitcoin rose from $0.95 to $32 in just three months, then plummeted 93% to $2;
In November 2013, the Cyprus debt crisis triggered a flight to safety, leading Bitcoin to break $1,000 for the first time, before dropping back to $200;
In December 2017, the ICO (Initial Coin Offering) bubble helped Bitcoin surge to $20,000, but a year later it fell to $3,000.
The patterns of this phase: price increases rely on 'faith'; crashes depend on panic. Retail investors are the absolute main force, and the market feels like a roller coaster, with a 30-day volatility often exceeding 100%.
2. Institutional Testing Period (2018-2024): From 'Rat Poison' to 'Institutional Darling'
In 2018, Buffett publicly called Bitcoin 'rat poison squared,' while JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon lambasted it as 'fraud.' But the slapback came quickly:
In 2020, MicroStrategy announced it would aggressively buy Bitcoin using its corporate balance sheet, and to date holds over 190,000 coins at an average cost of around $30,000;
In 2021, El Salvador made Bitcoin legal tender, with President Bukele tweeting 'laser eyes' daily;
In January 2024, the US SEC finally approved a Bitcoin spot ETF, with over $5 billion flowing in during the first week.
The turning point of this phase is the entry of institutions. Pensions, hedge funds, and even sovereign wealth funds begin allocating to Bitcoin, causing price volatility to drop from 100% to 25%, becoming increasingly similar to gold. By the end of 2024, Bitcoin stabilizes at $100,000, with a market cap exceeding $2 trillion.
3. National Game Period (2025-): When major powers start 'openly scrambling for resources'
In February 2025, an executive order from the Trump administration fundamentally changed the game rules—America plans to establish a sovereign wealth fund, indicating that part of the funds will be used to purchase Bitcoin. Although the official narrative is 'investing in tech companies,' the clear-eyed understand:
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is from a crypto exchange CEO background;
Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis strongly supports the (Bitcoin Reserve Bill), attempting to reduce national debt with Bitcoin;
The Federal Reserve quietly categorized Bitcoin as an 'alternative reserve asset.'
On the other hand, under local debt pressure, discussions around 'Bitcoinization of debt' have begun in Chinese academia. Although policies have not yet loosened, on-chain data has shown that the proportion of Bitcoin held by Chinese addresses has risen from 3% in 2021 to 7%.
The logic of this phase: Bitcoin evolves from an 'investment asset' to a 'strategic asset,' as major powers vie for financial discourse in the digital age.
II. Bitcoin Price Prediction in Ten Years: From $1 million to $3.8 million Fantasy
Regarding predictions for Bitcoin's future price, the market is never short of 'divine battles.' I have compiled four mainstream viewpoints and added my personal deductions.
1. Conservative Faction: $500,000 to $1 million (Logic of Gold Comparison)
Gold currently has a total market value of about $14 trillion, while Bitcoin is only $2 trillion. Conservatives believe that if Bitcoin can replace 10% of gold's store of value demand, the price will be around $500,000; if it replaces 50%, it will reach $2.5 million.
Representing viewpoints:
Fidelity's macro director Jurrien Timmer: Target price of $600,000 by 2028, pegged to 20% of gold's market value;
Standard Chartered: Looking at $200,000 by the end of 2025, long-term target depends on institutional allocation ratio;
Grayscale CEO Michael Sonnenshein: 'Bitcoin doesn't need to surpass gold, it just needs to be a better version of gold.'
Loophole: The industrial uses of gold and its central bank reserve attributes cannot be completely replaced, and the two may coexist in the long term.
2. Radical Faction: $1 million to $3.8 million (Imagination of Institutional Capital Flood)
Global pension funds amount to about $56 trillion, and hedge funds exceed $4 trillion. If these 'whales' allocate 1%-5% to Bitcoin, the demand will completely overturn the supply-demand balance.
Representing viewpoints:
ARK Invest's Cathie Wood: Target price of $3.8 million by 2030, assuming institutional allocation of 5% + ETFs continue to accumulate;
BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes: 'First a pullback to $70,000, then a surge to $250,000; long term looking at $1 million';
Former Goldman Sachs executive Raoul Pal: 'Bitcoin will experience a “super cycle,” ultimately surpassing the combined market value of Apple, gold, and oil.'
Supporting Data:
Currently, Bitcoin's annual circulation is about 300,000 coins (mining + unlocking). If institutions buy 600,000 coins annually (currently MicroStrategy adds about 30,000 coins per year), the price will inevitably soar;
In 2024, the average daily net inflow into spot ETFs was $200 million; at this rate, 20% of the circulating supply will be purchased within 5 years.
3. National Strategic Faction: $42.3 million? (VanEck's Wild Model)
Wall Street veteran asset management company VanEck once released a shocking report: If Bitcoin maintains a 25% CAGR, its price will reach $42.3 million by 2049. If the US stockpiles 1 million Bitcoins under the (Bitcoin Reserve Bill), its value will exceed $42 trillion, alleviating 35% of national debt pressure.
Controversial points:
Bitcoin's market cap needs to reach $42 trillion (the current global stock market's total market cap is about $120 trillion);
A 25% CAGR may seem exaggerated, but Bitcoin's CAGR over the past 10 years was 196.7%, and 104% over 12 years; taking 1/4 of that growth rate remains reasonable;
If sovereign funds continue to increase holdings (for instance, buying 200,000 coins annually), structural shortages might push prices up.
4. My Personal Deduction: $2 million to $5 million in ten years
Considering all parties' logic, I believe Bitcoin's price in ten years (2035) may range from $2 million to $5 million. The core basis is as follows:
1) Incremental Capital: $5.8 billion in daily buying demand
To achieve the $42.3 million target, Bitcoin's market cap needs to reach $42 trillion, equivalent to four times global GDP. This seems absurd, but the 'snowball effect' of capital markets should not be underestimated:
Sovereign Funds: If China, the US, and 10 other countries each allocate $1 trillion, demand will reach $10 trillion;
Pensions: Global pensions totaling $56 trillion, if allocated 1%, would equal $560 billion;
Corporate Reserves: If tech giants like Apple and Google follow MicroStrategy's lead, it could trigger an 'arms race.'
According to the VanEck model, $2.1 trillion in new capital inflow is needed annually (averaging $5.8 billion daily). Compared to the current $200 million daily inflow into ETFs, the gap seems enormous, but don't forget—capital always chases profit effects. If Bitcoin's annual return stabilizes above 20%, the capital will accelerate itself.
2) Halving Effect: The 'Hunger Games' every four years
Bitcoin mining rewards are halved every four years, a hard-coded rule:
In 2024: Block rewards reduced from 6.25 to 3.125 coins;
In 2028: Reduced to 1.5625 coins;
In 2032: Reduced to 0.78125 coins…
Historical data shows that Bitcoin's average increase exceeds 300% in the 12 months following each halving. As new coin supply decreases yearly, supply-demand imbalance will only intensify. By 2035, the annual addition of Bitcoin will be less than 100,000 coins (currently 300,000), while demand may grow tenfold.
3) Fiat Currency Devaluation: US national debt inflates by $1 trillion every 100 days
The current scale of US national debt has surpassed $37 trillion and is growing at a rate of $100,000 per second. The government has only three options: raise taxes, default, or print money. The first two are nearly impossible in a democratic society, so the Federal Reserve's printing press has become the only choice.
The 21 million cap on Bitcoin is precisely the best tool against 'paper changing to paper.' When national debt interest surpasses defense spending (expected by 2030), more capital will flood into Bitcoin seeking refuge.
III.
Four underlying logics supporting Bitcoin's long bull market
Price predictions are just the surface; the true value of Bitcoin lies in its ability to resolve the fundamental contradictions of the traditional financial system.
1. The entry of state capital: from 'secretly buying' to 'openly scrambling'
Case Study 1: Bhutan's 'Quietly Getting Rich' Strategy
This small Himalayan country started mining as early as 2022, secretly accumulating Bitcoin using cheap hydropower. By 2024, its holdings accounted for 40% of GDP, yet the president merely stated, 'We are just protecting the national wealth.'
Case Study 2: Trump's 'One Stone, Three Birds' Plan
The establishment of a sovereign wealth fund appears to be for 'investing in tech companies,' but there are hidden intricacies:
Use tariff revenue to buy Bitcoin, avoiding direct money printing that could trigger inflation;
Compensate for national debt pressure through rising coin prices;
Seizing strategic assets like TikTok to consolidate dollar hegemony.
Key Conclusion: The entry of states is not for short-term arbitrage but to contest pricing power in the digital age.
2. Technological Revolution: Lightning Network and AI Agents
The breakthrough of the Lightning Network has brought Bitcoin payment costs close to zero. By 2030, the following scenarios may be realized:
You pay for coffee at Starbucks with Bitcoin, transaction fee $0.0001, settlement time 3 seconds (some Starbucks locations in certain countries currently support Bitcoin payments);
Cross-border remittances no longer rely on the SWIFT system; Bitcoin transactions settle in seconds on the blockchain;
Games, social media, and other ecosystems embed Bitcoin micropayments, reshaping the internet's economic model.
AI agents further lower the entry threshold:
Your AI assistant automatically invests 5% of your salary into Bitcoin;
Smart contracts adjust positions based on market sentiment, avoiding human weaknesses;
DAOs (Decentralized Autonomous Organizations) manage global communities using Bitcoin treasuries.
3. Generational Shift: The 'Digital Natives' Preferences of Post-90s and Post-00s
Young people feel indifferent towards gold but naturally recognize Bitcoin:
They are accustomed to digital payments and view 'physical currency' as a relic of the last century;
They accumulate virtual assets in games and their understanding of 'ownership' is closer to blockchain;
They have experienced the 2008 financial crisis and the massive easing of 2020, leading to a lack of trust in fiat currency.
By 2035, the post-80s will retire and the post-90s will become the main force of wealth. Their asset allocation habits will fundamentally rewrite the rules of financial markets.
4. Macroeconomics: Debt Bubbles and 'Helicopter Money'
Global government debt has exceeded $300 trillion, with major economies' debt-to-GDP ratios all surpassing 100%. Central banks have only one card left: printing money—leading to inflation—diluting debt.
But the existence of Bitcoin introduces variables into this game:
Wealthy individuals hedge against asset depreciation with Bitcoin;
The middle class uses Bitcoin savings to guard against inflation;
Poor countries leapfrog the dollar hegemony with Bitcoin.
This 'voting with feet' power will ultimately force system upgrades.
Statement: This article does not constitute investment advice; the market carries risks; decisions should be made cautiously.
