教链
Frequent Trader
7.3 Years
$BTC The "Bitcoin Supercycle" theory suggests sustained price growth due to rising adoption, scarcity, and macroeconomic factors.
7 Following
6 Followers
7 Liked
0 Shared
See original
2025/03/07: Trump signs an executive order authorizing the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve, retail panic, whales once again siphoning off Bitcoin.
Trump signs an executive order authorizing the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve, with initial capital coming from approximately 200,000 Bitcoins seized through judicial forfeiture (valued at around $17 billion), promising not to use taxpayer funds. The government will stop selling its held Bitcoins and will instead treat them as a long-term strategic reserve, positioning them as 'digital gold.'
Authorize the Treasury and Commerce Department to increase Bitcoin holdings through budget-neutral methods (without increasing fiscal burden), potential avenues include: using the foreign exchange stabilization fund (with a net position of $39 billion) to purchase; referencing Senator Lummis's proposal to release funds through gold reserve revaluation (adjusting the historical cost price from $42/ounce to the market price of $2,650/ounce, releasing about $750 billion in book value).
Authorize the Treasury and Commerce Department to increase Bitcoin holdings through budget-neutral methods (without increasing fiscal burden), potential avenues include: using the foreign exchange stabilization fund (with a net position of $39 billion) to purchase; referencing Senator Lummis's proposal to release funds through gold reserve revaluation (adjusting the historical cost price from $42/ounce to the market price of $2,650/ounce, releasing about $750 billion in book value).
See original
2025/02/28: Can Bitcoin Bottom Out? Pessimism Spreads, Large Whales Start to Inflow, ETF Outflows Weaken
Bitcoin's price is approaching the coach's bull-bear average line, which is also the support range for several major adjustments.
At the same time, the CME gap that everyone is watching has been filled, but caution is needed as gaps often appear to be pierced before being recovered. That is, the price is in the previously mentioned range of 75000～78000. Waiting for confirmation of price action.
Macroeconomics and Policy:
There is a disconnect between current U.S. economic data and public pessimism. Data shows that the U.S. job market remains strong (unemployment rate dropped in January), initial claims for unemployment benefits are low (despite recent disturbances from short-term factors like snowstorms), and there has been no significant deterioration in the stock market or inflation indicators (such as PCE). From an objective data standpoint, the economy has not fallen into recession, indicating robust economic fundamentals.
At the same time, the CME gap that everyone is watching has been filled, but caution is needed as gaps often appear to be pierced before being recovered. That is, the price is in the previously mentioned range of 75000～78000. Waiting for confirmation of price action.
Macroeconomics and Policy:
There is a disconnect between current U.S. economic data and public pessimism. Data shows that the U.S. job market remains strong (unemployment rate dropped in January), initial claims for unemployment benefits are low (despite recent disturbances from short-term factors like snowstorms), and there has been no significant deterioration in the stock market or inflation indicators (such as PCE). From an objective data standpoint, the economy has not fallen into recession, indicating robust economic fundamentals.
See original
2025/02/27: Bitcoin Plummets to 82000! Large Whales Continue Significant Inflows, ETF's Largest Net Outflow
The key level of 84216, which has been a focus in previous issues, has been breached, briefly supported by the red bar. The best-case scenario is to reclaim the yellow price range of 89100 to 90800 by the end of this week.
If it cannot effectively reclaim, then the next observation position will be at 75000 to 78000 (which is also the long-awaited CME futures gap). Wait for confirmation of price action and participate according to position and preference.
Macroeconomics and Policy:
Nvidia's earnings report released on February 27, 2025, showed that the company's revenue reached $39.331 billion, a 78% year-over-year increase, far exceeding the market expectation of $38.05 billion; the full-year revenue also increased by 114%, and net profit grew by 145%.
If it cannot effectively reclaim, then the next observation position will be at 75000 to 78000 (which is also the long-awaited CME futures gap). Wait for confirmation of price action and participate according to position and preference.
Macroeconomics and Policy:
Nvidia's earnings report released on February 27, 2025, showed that the company's revenue reached $39.331 billion, a 78% year-over-year increase, far exceeding the market expectation of $38.05 billion; the full-year revenue also increased by 114%, and net profit grew by 145%.
See original
2025/02/26: Bitcoin approaches $85,000! Large whales are seeing inflows, ETF net outflows.
Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline followed by a slight rebound, currently trading below $90,000, with clear short-term resistance. However, the price has not yet fallen below $85,000, and there is significant attention on whether it can break through here at $84,216.
Macroeconomics and Policy:
Stagflation risk intensifies
Consumer confidence collapses: The U.S. Consumer Confidence Index has dropped to 98.3 (the largest drop in three and a half years), reflecting deep concerns about the economic outlook, compounded by inflation expectations soaring to 6% (the highest since May 2023).
Policy and Employment Shock: Trump's tariff policy and large-scale layoffs by the federal government have triggered risks of consumption tightening, which could drag down economic growth, creating a 'high inflation + low growth' stagflation environment.
Macroeconomics and Policy:
Stagflation risk intensifies
Consumer confidence collapses: The U.S. Consumer Confidence Index has dropped to 98.3 (the largest drop in three and a half years), reflecting deep concerns about the economic outlook, compounded by inflation expectations soaring to 6% (the highest since May 2023).
Policy and Employment Shock: Trump's tariff policy and large-scale layoffs by the federal government have triggered risks of consumption tightening, which could drag down economic growth, creating a 'high inflation + low growth' stagflation environment.
See original
2025/02/25: Bitcoin falls below $90,000! Major whales show violent movements not seen in nearly three months; what can save us?
After two months of stagnation, Bitcoin has once again fallen below $90,000 and has broken through this level.
From a structural perspective, if the daily level cannot effectively reclaim the yellow area, then the red area below becomes more attractive, as it represents a 'power vacuum.'
Macroeconomics and policies:
Recent U.S. economic data is weak (PMI stagnation, declining housing sales, plummeting consumer confidence index), coupled with stubborn inflation, raising concerns about 'stagflation' (stagnant economic growth + high inflation). Market pessimism is similar to that in August 2023, requiring verification from key data.
Bitcoin has experienced the largest hacking attack in history (with $1.4 billion in assets stolen), intensifying market panic and breaking the original rebound expectations.
From a structural perspective, if the daily level cannot effectively reclaim the yellow area, then the red area below becomes more attractive, as it represents a 'power vacuum.'
Macroeconomics and policies:
Recent U.S. economic data is weak (PMI stagnation, declining housing sales, plummeting consumer confidence index), coupled with stubborn inflation, raising concerns about 'stagflation' (stagnant economic growth + high inflation). Market pessimism is similar to that in August 2023, requiring verification from key data.
Bitcoin has experienced the largest hacking attack in history (with $1.4 billion in assets stolen), intensifying market panic and breaking the original rebound expectations.
See original
How much will Bitcoin rise in ten years? Ten thousand words long article deduction
From "scam" to belief, why do I dare to predict Bitcoin in ten years? Back then, I also thought, "Isn't this thing just a string of code?"
Recently, people have been asking me, "How much do you think Bitcoin will rise in ten years?" To be honest, this question is as difficult to answer as asking me, "What will the housing price be in Beijing in ten years?" But as a player who has been beaten by the market for many years and has survived by chance, today I want to put aside the K-line chart and talk to you about my deduction from the perspective of capital logic, economic cycles and social changes.
However, before I begin, I must be honest: predicting the future is essentially the same as fortune-telling. Even Mr. Buffett admits that he doesn’t understand Bitcoin, let alone an ordinary person like me? But fortunately, Bitcoin’s historical data is transparent enough, and there are always traces of economic laws to follow. In this long article today, I will try my best to break down the complex logic in "human language."
Recently, people have been asking me, "How much do you think Bitcoin will rise in ten years?" To be honest, this question is as difficult to answer as asking me, "What will the housing price be in Beijing in ten years?" But as a player who has been beaten by the market for many years and has survived by chance, today I want to put aside the K-line chart and talk to you about my deduction from the perspective of capital logic, economic cycles and social changes.
However, before I begin, I must be honest: predicting the future is essentially the same as fortune-telling. Even Mr. Buffett admits that he doesn’t understand Bitcoin, let alone an ordinary person like me? But fortunately, Bitcoin’s historical data is transparent enough, and there are always traces of economic laws to follow. In this long article today, I will try my best to break down the complex logic in "human language."
See original
2025/02/24: Will the 90,000 support level be tested again? What you need to know about Bitcoin this week
Uncertain sentiment for Bitcoin at the end of February? Can the bull run avoid another drop to $90,000? Liquidity is building up on both sides of the spot price, with Bitcoin languishing in an increasingly narrow trading range, with last week’s upside breakout attempt being crushed following the Bybit hack.
Liquidity:
As can be seen from the current liquidity conditions on exchange order books, $94,700 and $92,500 are key levels this week.
Macro and policy:
Markets are awaiting the “final piece of the puzzle” this week, while U.S. inflation data continues to provide headwinds for risk assets. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed’s so-called “preferred” inflation indicator, will be released on February 28. It will be released on the heels of last week’s stronger-than-expected initial jobless claims, which suggested that labor market conditions were weakening amid a resurgence in inflation indicators, and traders are closely watching its developments.
Liquidity:
As can be seen from the current liquidity conditions on exchange order books, $94,700 and $92,500 are key levels this week.
Macro and policy:
Markets are awaiting the “final piece of the puzzle” this week, while U.S. inflation data continues to provide headwinds for risk assets. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed’s so-called “preferred” inflation indicator, will be released on February 28. It will be released on the heels of last week’s stronger-than-expected initial jobless claims, which suggested that labor market conditions were weakening amid a resurgence in inflation indicators, and traders are closely watching its developments.
See original
Analysis of Retail Investors' Survival Dilemmas in the Cryptocurrency Market
The current cryptocurrency market is undergoing structural transformation, and the traditional concept of a 'bull market' is facing redefinition. The Bitcoin halving cycle and the ETF capital entry mechanism have essentially endowed this round of market activity with a new market logic.
As the foundational asset of the crypto market, Bitcoin's dominant bull and bear cycles have completely reshaped the market operation rules. Historical data shows that the altcoin market is essentially driven by liquidity spillover created by Bitcoin's bull market, and its profit opportunities depend entirely on two core factors: the overall liquidity saturation of the market and the efficiency of Bitcoin's profit funds being transmitted to other coins. It is noteworthy that the Bitcoin spot ETF approved by the SEC is directly channeling incremental funds from the traditional financial sector into core crypto assets, and this capital composition, which is vastly different from traditional crypto funds, effectively severs the funding transmission path.
As the foundational asset of the crypto market, Bitcoin's dominant bull and bear cycles have completely reshaped the market operation rules. Historical data shows that the altcoin market is essentially driven by liquidity spillover created by Bitcoin's bull market, and its profit opportunities depend entirely on two core factors: the overall liquidity saturation of the market and the efficiency of Bitcoin's profit funds being transmitted to other coins. It is noteworthy that the Bitcoin spot ETF approved by the SEC is directly channeling incremental funds from the traditional financial sector into core crypto assets, and this capital composition, which is vastly different from traditional crypto funds, effectively severs the funding transmission path.
See original
$BTC short-term looks volatile, as altcoins have been hit hard, it may be worth paying more attention to altcoin opportunities. After the consolidation of Bitcoin, there is still a possibility of further decline.
See original
【Deep Observation of the Crypto Market: Structural Opportunities After the Plunge】
In the recent severe fluctuations of the crypto asset market, long positions worth billions faced forced liquidation, but this has precisely provided a new observation window for value investors. We observe that the altcoin market has shown multiple key bottom signals: the perpetual contract funding rate has generally turned negative, and on-chain transaction volume has surpassed the peak of the bull market cycle; this fierce liquidity washout has been quite rare in the market over the past two years.
It is worth noting that the current altcoin/BTC exchange rate trend forms a historical mirror with the black swan phase of the pandemic in 2020.
Backtesting data shows that although the exchange rate experienced a technical false breakout at that time, it subsequently initiated a 15-month growth cycle for altcoins. The daily long lower shadows of ETH and other mainstream altcoins clearly indicate key points in the tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Historical experience suggests that after a single probe bottom, there is a demand for price pullback confirmation, which is precisely the technical window for investors to gradually build positions.
The market has entered the early stage of value recovery. Please maintain strategic determination and systematically grasp golden layout opportunities during the bull market cycle under the premise of strict position management.
In the recent severe fluctuations of the crypto asset market, long positions worth billions faced forced liquidation, but this has precisely provided a new observation window for value investors. We observe that the altcoin market has shown multiple key bottom signals: the perpetual contract funding rate has generally turned negative, and on-chain transaction volume has surpassed the peak of the bull market cycle; this fierce liquidity washout has been quite rare in the market over the past two years.
It is worth noting that the current altcoin/BTC exchange rate trend forms a historical mirror with the black swan phase of the pandemic in 2020.
Backtesting data shows that although the exchange rate experienced a technical false breakout at that time, it subsequently initiated a 15-month growth cycle for altcoins. The daily long lower shadows of ETH and other mainstream altcoins clearly indicate key points in the tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Historical experience suggests that after a single probe bottom, there is a demand for price pullback confirmation, which is precisely the technical window for investors to gradually build positions.
The market has entered the early stage of value recovery. Please maintain strategic determination and systematically grasp golden layout opportunities during the bull market cycle under the premise of strict position management.
See original
You are waiting for a ghost story of an altcoin season
As a retail investor who got in high with the first-generation blockchain model coins and has been involved with all air project extras, I must wake you all up: The illusion that 'the altcoin season will never be absent' is as absurd as thinking your ex-boyfriend will come back!
(The sharp sound of a cold BGM comes from the background)
🕵️♂️First Lesson: The Relationship between Bitcoin and Altcoins
You can't really think Bitcoin is the big brother of altcoins, right? The reality is Bitcoin is throwing money around in the Cullinan club, while altcoins can only beg for leftover scraps at the door! In this bull market, Bitcoin has gone to the far side of the moon, while the air coins you hold are still waiting for signals from Mars!
(The sharp sound of a cold BGM comes from the background)
🕵️♂️First Lesson: The Relationship between Bitcoin and Altcoins
You can't really think Bitcoin is the big brother of altcoins, right? The reality is Bitcoin is throwing money around in the Cullinan club, while altcoins can only beg for leftover scraps at the door! In this bull market, Bitcoin has gone to the far side of the moon, while the air coins you hold are still waiting for signals from Mars!
See original
Bybit CEO: I am concerned that the actual total liquidation today far exceeds 2 billion USD. I estimate it should be between 8 billion and 10 billion USD at least. For your reference, the liquidation amount on Bybit alone in the past 24 hours has reached 2.1 billion USD. As you can see, Coinglass recorded Bybit's 24-hour liquidation amount at about 333 million USD, but this is not all the liquidation data. Due to API limitations, the amount of data we push per second is limited. Based on my observations, other exchanges have also taken similar measures to restrict the public release of liquidation data. In the future, Bybit will begin to push all liquidation data. We believe in the importance of transparency.
Lately, many people have been pretending to have lost all their money. By doing this, they can exploit the attention and sympathy of kind-hearted, gullible individuals. As the saying goes, "people often target the softest persimmons to squeeze"—naive followers are easier to manipulate and exploit.$BTC
See original
What will the 2025 bull market forecast look like?
Let’s talk about the conclusion first: retail investors have difficulty surviving.
The so-called bull market in the currency circle originally refers to the bull market cycle of Bitcoin’s four-year halving. In other words, the bull market in the currency circle refers to the Bitcoin bull market.
Many people mistakenly believe that this is a bull run for all cryptocurrencies.
The reason why there was altcoin season in the past was because the abundant liquidity introduced by the Bitcoin bull market caused capital spillover to benefit altcoins.
If the bull market is a bull market for Bitcoin, then we can draw the following conclusions:
1. The market of altcoins depends on whether there is sufficient liquidity
2. And whether Bitcoin participants are willing to use part of their profits to participate in the speculation of altcoins at the end of the Bitcoin market.
The so-called bull market in the currency circle originally refers to the bull market cycle of Bitcoin’s four-year halving. In other words, the bull market in the currency circle refers to the Bitcoin bull market.
Many people mistakenly believe that this is a bull run for all cryptocurrencies.
The reason why there was altcoin season in the past was because the abundant liquidity introduced by the Bitcoin bull market caused capital spillover to benefit altcoins.
If the bull market is a bull market for Bitcoin, then we can draw the following conclusions:
1. The market of altcoins depends on whether there is sufficient liquidity
2. And whether Bitcoin participants are willing to use part of their profits to participate in the speculation of altcoins at the end of the Bitcoin market.
See original
You ask me, I answer: In trading, what is the most important thing, what is the most difficult thing?
1. Admit that you are a fool.
The main reason for constantly losing money in trading yet becoming more resilient is the refusal to admit mistakes. Only by denying oneself and acknowledging errors can one find the root of the problem. Most people are unwilling to face it, or they simply don’t believe in misfortune, thinking they are the chosen one among many. Bah. Idiot. Does God not know numbers? There aren’t that many sons.
2. Enough capital to keep you off the betting table.
Capital is an advantage in strategy.
#交易哲学
1. Admit that you are a fool.
The main reason for constantly losing money in trading yet becoming more resilient is the refusal to admit mistakes. Only by denying oneself and acknowledging errors can one find the root of the problem. Most people are unwilling to face it, or they simply don’t believe in misfortune, thinking they are the chosen one among many. Bah. Idiot. Does God not know numbers? There aren’t that many sons.
2. Enough capital to keep you off the betting table.
Capital is an advantage in strategy.
#交易哲学
See original
How does wealth come about?
Wealth comes from the bugs of the era, and each generation has its own bugs. Those who find and take advantage of these bugs are the winners.
Wealth comes from the bugs of the era, and each generation has its own bugs. Those who find and take advantage of these bugs are the winners.
See original
Post-00s lose a month's salary in half an hour trading Trump coins; what profound lessons has the volatility of Trump coins brought to young investors?
First, you need to know whether it's an 'investment market' or a 'speculative market.' If it's about Trump coins, then it's obvious you listened to a bunch of narratives and went in with the mindset of getting rich overnight. So don't talk about 'what lessons young investors should learn'; you clearly went in to gamble, so don't stigmatize 'investing.'
Secondly, young people have plenty of time and passion, and embracing bubbles isn't a big deal. Going for Trump coins is also just a gamble. There’s nothing wrong with that.
Life is always a gamble everywhere, isn't it? Betting on schools, betting on college majors, betting on industry tracks, betting on the spouse you choose, betting on children, betting on houses, betting on milk tea shops, betting on franchises. Since it's all a gamble, don't think there’s anything wrong with gambling.
Secondly, young people have plenty of time and passion, and embracing bubbles isn't a big deal. Going for Trump coins is also just a gamble. There’s nothing wrong with that.
Life is always a gamble everywhere, isn't it? Betting on schools, betting on college majors, betting on industry tracks, betting on the spouse you choose, betting on children, betting on houses, betting on milk tea shops, betting on franchises. Since it's all a gamble, don't think there’s anything wrong with gambling.
See original
The $BTC cryptocurrency bull market has lasted for two years, having started on January 1, 2023 (with a price increase from $15,000 to $110,000), and is still in a bull market.
2025 will be the most brilliant period of the cryptocurrency bull market, so make sure to seize the opportunity. However, massive losses often occur in the latter half of the bull market.
2025 will be the most brilliant period of the cryptocurrency bull market, so make sure to seize the opportunity. However, massive losses often occur in the latter half of the bull market.
Login to explore more contents
Explore the latest crypto news
⚡️ Be a part of the latests discussions in crypto
💬 Interact with your favorite creators
👍 Enjoy content that interests you
Email / Phone number
Trending Topics
TradeLessons
3.6M views
6,083 Discussing
📢 Share Your Trades to Unlock 5,000 USDC Rewards!
The #TradeStories Trade Sharing Challenge is live. Showcase your trading skills, share your strategies, and earn your share of 5,000 USDC in rewards!
💬 Today's Topic: #TradeLessons
Share a trade that didn’t go as planned:
• What went wrong with the trade?
• What did you learn from the experience?
• How would you adjust your approach in the future?
👉 How To Participate
Step 1: Share your trade using the Trade Sharing Card feature. (Open the post editor, click Add Trades, and select the trade you want to share.)
Step 2: Add your insights (min. 100 characters) and include both hashtags: #TradeStories and #TradeLessons .
📌 Reminder:
• Each post must have unique content.
• You can post multiple times, on any of the eligible topics, at any time during the campaign.
• You may use the same trade across different topics only if each post offers a different perspective or insight on the trade.
🔗 Full campaign details here.
Binance Square Official
61 Likes
15k views
NewsTrade
8M views
9,234 Discussing
TrumpTariffs
53.8M views
71,600 Discussing
