Trump signs an executive order authorizing the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve, with initial capital coming from approximately 200,000 Bitcoins seized through judicial forfeiture (valued at around $17 billion), promising not to use taxpayer funds. The government will stop selling its held Bitcoins and will instead treat them as a long-term strategic reserve, positioning them as 'digital gold.'
Authorize the Treasury and Commerce Department to increase Bitcoin holdings through budget-neutral methods (without increasing fiscal burden), potential avenues include: using the foreign exchange stabilization fund (with a net position of $39 billion) to purchase; referencing Senator Lummis's proposal to release funds through gold reserve revaluation (adjusting the historical cost price from $42/ounce to the market price of $2,650/ounce, releasing about $750 billion in book value).
Market reaction analysis
Some traders are expecting more aggressive policies (like Senator Lummis's proposal to purchase 1 million BTC over 5 years), but the executive order does not specify an incremental purchase path, leading to profit-taking. Some viewpoints misinterpret 'forfeiture' as the only source of increment, suggesting that criminal seizures are necessary to expand reserves, causing emotional volatility.
Long-term bullish drivers
Policy certainty: The government commits to holding Bitcoins long-term, reducing the risk of a Bitcoin ban and strengthening its status as a 'national strategic asset.'
Global demonstration effect: May encourage other countries to follow suit in establishing Bitcoin reserves, creating a buying window period.
Legitimacy enhancement: Weakening the negative characterization of Bitcoin by international institutions (such as the IMF), accelerating mainstream financial system acceptance.
The 'Bitcoin for America' conference on March 11 will discuss specific implementation frameworks, possibly releasing more details.
Risks:
The executive order relies on presidential power; if there is a change in administration or a risk of policy reversal in four years, congressional legislation will be needed to solidify its long-term nature. The current technical situation still needs time to repair, with a low probability of a short-term surge, but the mid-to-long-term trend is clear.
On-chain data trends:
Large whales buying heavily create extreme emotional divergence from retail selling.
Trading opportunities (contract perspective):
Bitcoin filled the gap this morning, closing again, and whales did not give retail investors a chance.
As shown in the chart, short-term trading opportunities are in structural breakthroughs, engaging in short-term operations.
However, significant trading opportunities still require patience to wait for the end of the oscillation.
From a weekly perspective, it still hasn't reclaimed the upper region.
