After two months of stagnation, Bitcoin has once again fallen below $90,000 and has broken through this level.
From a structural perspective, if the daily level cannot effectively reclaim the yellow area, then the red area below becomes more attractive, as it represents a 'power vacuum.'
Macroeconomics and policies:
Recent U.S. economic data is weak (PMI stagnation, declining housing sales, plummeting consumer confidence index), coupled with stubborn inflation, raising concerns about 'stagflation' (stagnant economic growth + high inflation). Market pessimism is similar to that in August 2023, requiring verification from key data.
Bitcoin has experienced the largest hacking attack in history (with $1.4 billion in assets stolen), intensifying market panic and breaking the original rebound expectations.
NVIDIA's earnings report (after market close on February 28) may lead to intensified sell-offs in chip stocks if the report falls short of expectations. The U.S. PCE data (March 1) may show a year-over-year core PCE growth rate falling to 2.6% (the lowest since March 2021); if it meets expectations, it will alleviate stagflation anxiety; if it exceeds expectations, the market may further decline.
Pay attention to whether NVIDIA's earnings report can repair the AI narrative and whether the PCE data can falsify stagflation expectations.
On-chain data trends:
Retail investors holding 100 or fewer coins are buying synchronously, while addresses holding more than 100 coins continue to see significant outflows.
Trading opportunities:
⚠️ If the daily level cannot effectively reclaim the yellow area, it may further decline. The market is particularly focused on whether 84216 can be broken.
