#日本加息 will become the biggest bearish factor in the crypto market this week.
The market expects that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates in this week's meeting, with overnight index swaps indicating a 92% chance of a rate hike by the end of the policy meeting on January 23-24.
If Japan confirms a rate hike, it will bring stronger impacts and volatility to the cryptocurrency market, increasing selling pressure on BTC.
The main players in the current market are the Bank of Japan, the financial market, and global central banks, and the interplay among them points towards a bearish trend for BTC under pressure.
1. The interplay between the Bank of Japan and the market
If the signals from the central bank regarding rate hikes are fully interpreted by the market as credible, the market will digest the impact of the rate hike in advance, thereby weakening the immediate effect of the central bank's policy. Meanwhile, #BTC will also rebound and is expected to test the 90000 range.
2. The interplay between yen speculators and the Japanese government
Speculators use central bank policy signals and market sentiment to shift funds to places with lower interest rates to profit from the spread. Such speculative behavior may amplify the volatility of major financial assets.
3. The interplay between the cryptocurrency market and traditional financial markets
A rate hike by the Bank of Japan may enhance the attractiveness of traditional financial assets (such as yen bonds), thereby causing a capital outflow from the cryptocurrency market.