宏观

With Trump back in power, the direction of economic policy undoubtedly has a profound impact on the market. Interest rates and inflation will become the focal points of future market games. The following discussion will explore the future we are about to face from the perspectives of interest rate cuts and inflation, cryptocurrency, and market reflexivity, allowing for layered consumption~

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Interest Rate Cuts and Inflation: The Game of Expectations and Reality
Traditionally, interest rate cuts are tools to stimulate economic growth, but in the current economic environment, the market's response to interest rate cuts has become complicated.

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In traditional views, interest rate cuts usually lower borrowing costs, stimulate investment and consumption, thereby driving the stock market up.

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However, against a backdrop of high inflation, interest rate cuts may lead to excessive money supply, thereby exacerbating inflationary pressures.

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Now, the market no longer simply sees interest rate cuts as a positive signal for economic stimulation, but rather as a potential negative factor that may exacerbate inflation.

2️⃣
Market Reflexivity Shift: A Dramatic Change in Expectations (The Future of BTC and US Stocks)

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If the Federal Reserve decides to stop interest rate cuts, and the market reacts positively (the stock market does not fall, but even rises), this may indicate a shift from reliance on interest rate cuts to confidence in robust economic growth.

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At this point, the market may enter a recovery phase, with US stocks expected to gradually rebound and eventually reach new highs, while the cryptocurrency market, free from external adverse factors, will also welcome the anticipated festive season.

Brothers, I am not the only one worried about high inflation, the macro environment is there, respect the facts, draw conclusions based on facts, and develop response plans for possibilities is a way to be responsible for oneself! #特朗普就职后行情怎么走？ #宏观

Two weeks ago, Powell actively stated in an interview on "60 Minutes" that he was preparing to cut interest rates.

Data last week and yesterday showed that U.S. CPI and PPI in January exceeded expectations.

Hopefully the Fed will not make the same mistakes of the 1970s, which is the biggest risk to the market.

$BTC $WLD $LPT

#宏观 #美联储 #通胀 #CPI #降息

#日本加息 will become the biggest bearish factor in the crypto market this week.

The market expects that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates in this week's meeting, with overnight index swaps indicating a 92% chance of a rate hike by the end of the policy meeting on January 23-24.
If Japan confirms a rate hike, it will bring stronger impacts and volatility to the cryptocurrency market, increasing selling pressure on BTC.
The main players in the current market are the Bank of Japan, the financial market, and global central banks, and the interplay among them points towards a bearish trend for BTC under pressure.
1. The interplay between the Bank of Japan and the market
If the signals from the central bank regarding rate hikes are fully interpreted by the market as credible, the market will digest the impact of the rate hike in advance, thereby weakening the immediate effect of the central bank's policy. Meanwhile, #BTC will also rebound and is expected to test the 90000 range.
2. The interplay between yen speculators and the Japanese government
Speculators use central bank policy signals and market sentiment to shift funds to places with lower interest rates to profit from the spread. Such speculative behavior may amplify the volatility of major financial assets.
3. The interplay between the cryptocurrency market and traditional financial markets
A rate hike by the Bank of Japan may enhance the attractiveness of traditional financial assets (such as yen bonds), thereby causing a capital outflow from the cryptocurrency market.
#货币政策 #投资机会 #市场分析 #宏观
$BTC $SOL $XRP

#宏观
🐻 Cryptocurrency market is currently focused on news 🉐 Cryptocurrency market

Important macro events and data forecast for March 16, 2025 (Beijing Time)

Macroeconomic Data:
- **Monday 20:30**
- U.S. February Retail Sales MoM
- U.S. March New York Fed Manufacturing Index

Tuesday
- Bank of Japan announces interest rate decision
- 14:30 Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuhiro holds a monetary policy press conference

- Wednesday 18:00
- Eurozone February CPI data

- Thursday
- 16:30 Swiss National Bank, Swedish National Bank announce interest rate decisions
- 17:00 European Central Bank publishes Economic Bulletin
- 20:00 Bank of England announces interest rate decision
- 20:30
- U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 15
- U.S. Q4 Current Account
- U.S. March Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

- Friday 07:30
- Japan February National Core CPI YoY

Federal Reserve Important‼️ Events:
Thursday:
- 02:00 Federal Reserve FOMC announces interest rate decision and economic outlook summary
- 02:30 Federal Reserve Chairman Powell holds a monetary policy press conference

- Friday 21:05
- FOMC permanent voter, New York Fed President Williams delivers a speech