歪脖山观星鼠

Areas that Trump's speech may involve today (time to be determined)

🌍 Trump promotes a ceasefire in Ukraine:
The Trump administration hopes to achieve a ceasefire in Ukraine before Easter and calls for Europe to take on more responsibility.

🛡️ European countries are negotiating how to provide support by increasing military spending and freezing Russian assets.

💰 Possible trends for BTC:
🌐 Safe-haven demand:
If the conflict in Ukraine escalates, investors may turn to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset. BTC prices are expected to find support.
ETFs are expected to shift from net outflows to net inflows. There are a large number of chips around the 98000~99000 range that may be liquidated.
Thus, prices are expected to return to the 99000 range and may even briefly touch 100000.

💵 Policy changes:
The Trump administration may support blockchain technology, which could have a positive impact on the cryptocurrency market.
However, if the ceasefire agreement is successful, uncertainty in the crypto market may decrease, price volatility may reduce, and influenced by favorable factors in the U.S. stock market, it may return to 100000.

💵 Possible impact on U.S. stocks:
If the ceasefire in Ukraine is unresolved or fails, it may lead to increased volatility in U.S. stocks;
If the agreement is successful, U.S. stocks may reach new highs.
#地缘政治对比特币的影响 #加密货币普及 #CardanoETF讨论 $BTC

US stocks panic, BTC becomes a hedging tool? (Data analysis & strategy sharing)

🚨 Recently, SP500 has remained high and has not shown a significant retracement, but the price of BTC has been slow to stabilize at 100,000.
The difference between the rise and fall of BTC and SP500, which have always been linked in the early stage, is also continuing to expand

Among the several data that I focus on, the VIX index (commonly known as Wall Street's "fear index"), which measures the short-term volatility of US stocks, is about to approach the threshold of irrational prosperity.

🔑Therefore, it is inferred that funds in the US stock market that are considered to be currently more risky are beginning to seek hedging and begin to enter the BTC market to short

🔒
And the BTC market has the characteristic of not closing, which can greatly hedge the impact of events during the US stock market closure on the US stock market.

🔑My strategy
1. There may be more selling pressure in the BTC market in the future, especially when the US stock market faces a pullback, so when the US stock market begins to show a pullback signal, open a BTC short position for hedging
2. If the US stock market pullback causes BTC emotional panic to aggravate the market oversold, it is a good time to buy
#市场清算 #加密市场反弹 #SP500

$BTC

Why did BTC plummet, and how will it move after the CPI data is released tonight?

Powell emphasized last night that the Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to adjust interest rates, and that the neutral interest rate has risen, which means the Fed will pay more attention to data and market reactions.
📊
The market has anticipated that the Federal Reserve will maintain a relatively robust interest rate hike attitude for the foreseeable future, leading to pessimism regarding expectations of rate cuts.
🔍
Additionally, the CPI data to be released today is expected to bring significant volatility to the market. As a result, some risk-averse funds, anticipating that the CPI data will underperform given the ongoing inflationary pressures, are withdrawing from the market, triggering last night's plunge.

🔍
BTC Technical Analysis
Currently, we still need to pay attention to the support and resistance exchange level around 97000. The overall large-scale trend remains a consolidation upwards.
📈
If today's CPI data is better than expected, it could easily stabilize in the 97000 range and push towards 100000.
📉
If the CPI data underperforms expectations and market sentiment turns pessimistic, prices may break below the 94000 level (accumulation area).
⚠️
Therefore, it is crucial to monitor price changes in the hour before and after the data release.


#CPI数据 #美联储何时降息？ #市场波动，加仓还是观望？ #加密货币之王

Some of my experiences, which may not be applicable 1. Make a good trading plan 2. Carefully record the end of a trade: whether the entry and exit standards are consistent, whether the trading plan was executed, the deviation of the trading plan from the market 3. Find indicators that suit your trading style based on trading records

🚨The data with the biggest impact on the market this week will be released soon
📊CPI data released this Wednesday & Powell's testimony
🕒PM & 23:00pm
💥If the CPI data is lower than expected and Powell is dovish, BTC is likely to hit 100,000
💥If the CPI data is lower than expected, Powell's position is neutral or hawkish, both the US stock market and the BTC market will face a strong downward impact.
🔮My strategy:
1. Layout ETH end-of-day options and go long on volatility
2. Pay attention to market turmoil on the eve of data release and hedge altcoin holdings
3. If the data brings emotional oversell or gains, short-term long or short emotional markets will be made.
#CryptoMarket #比特币后市 #tradingStrategy #比特币盘整将持续多久？ $BTC

Today, let's analyze the #BTCUSDT market. It is currently at a support-resistance exchange point, with a considerable amount of chips gathering around 97800. Therefore, whether it can hold above 97800 this week becomes the key focus of the current BTC trend.
1. A downward breach of 95000 will face significant liquidation.
2. A stable rise above 978000 may test the 100000 range again.
3. This week has many major events and data releases, so volatility is expected to increase, and a long volatility options strategy can be adopted to gain relatively certain returns.
#比特币盘整将持续多久？ #比特币后市


$BTC

Let's talk about one of the strongest markets recently, gold

Short-term (1-3 months): Strong volatility GVZ has recently rebounded, indicating that the market expects gold volatility to increase in the next 30 days.
It is related to the uncertainty of the Fed's interest rate policy, inflation data, or the global macroeconomic environment.
If GVZ continues to rise, gold prices may fluctuate violently, and there may be a risk of a short-term high and fall.
However, the scale of the retracement is not large. If it stabilizes after the retracement, it will be a good buying opportunity

Medium-term (3-6 months): Pay attention to the Fed's policy and inflation
If the Fed confirms a rate cut, the decline in real interest rates will be good for gold
If inflation data exceeds expectations, gold may become a hedging tool, further pushing up gold prices. Coupled with the strong trend of gold on the weekly and monthly lines, the medium and long-term outlook remains bullish
#GOLD #crypto $BTC

Danger signal warning: The narrowing of the US-Japan interest rate differential may bring pressure on US stocks, and the $$ altcoin season will be postponed

⏳ First look at the conclusion:

1️⃣
The US stock market is under pressure in the short term, and capital outflows may lead to a weak market, but the expectation of medium- and long-term interest rate cuts may boost the future upward trend of the US stock market.

2️⃣
The BTC market pays attention to the changes in US stocks and interest rate differentials. The short-term downward shock, but if the expectation of interest rate cuts increases, it will bring medium- and long-term liquidity support, which is good for BTC.

Against the background of the Bank of Japan gradually tightening its monetary policy, the US dollar has entered a cycle of interest rate cuts. The US-Japan interest rate differential has begun to narrow gradually, and funds have gradually flowed back to the Japanese yen, which may become a dangerous signal of tightening liquidity in the US stock market and the cryptocurrency market. The much-anticipated altcoin season will also be postponed.

🔍
What does the narrowing of interest rate differentials mean for US stocks?
When the US-Japan interest rate differential narrows, some borrowed funds flow out of the United States and flow back to Japan, and investors begin to seek lower-risk long-term debt markets. This will lead to short-term capital outflows from the U.S. stock market, especially high-risk assets (such as technology stocks and growth stocks) may be under certain pressure.

The outflow of funds has led to the weakening of the U.S. stock market, which can, to a certain extent, promote the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, especially in the context of Trump's policy of attaching importance to the U.S. stock market. If the Fed's monetary policy is more relaxed, the market will have confidence and drive the U.S. stock market up in the medium and long term

🔄
. What does the narrowing interest rate spread mean for the BTC market

The U.S. dollar is weak, and BTC is strong: the price of BTC itself is more sensitive to changes in global liquidity, especially the strength of the U.S. dollar. When the U.S.-Japan interest rate spread narrows, if the yen flows back and the U.S. dollar weakens, it will provide a certain degree of price support for BTC

The U.S. stock market is strong, and BTC is strong: BTC is regarded as a risky asset, and its price volatility is relatively large. If the U.S. stock market performs poorly under the condition of capital outflow, it will force the interest rate cut process, so there may be a downward trend in the short term. If the interest rate cut comes as expected and the market liquidity increases, it will be good for BTC in the medium and long term.
#你看好哪一个山寨币ETF将通过？ #比特币后市 #比特币盘整将持续多久？ #特朗普加密政策承诺

Will there still be an altcoin season after BTC becomes integrated with US stocks (taking NDX and Russell 2000 as examples)
After the BTC ETF was approved, BTC began to follow the Nasdaq's movements and gradually became a leading indicator during US stock market closures. However, in this cycle, as BTC rose, there was no explosive growth of altcoins as seen previously. Therefore, we will compare altcoins with the Russell 2000 to observe the fluctuations of this altcoin season.
First, the conclusion:
1. An altcoin season will occur after BTC peaks, but overall, the increase will not exceed that of BTC (some sectors may experience explosive growth).
2. The scale is far below the previous growth when BTC had an independent narrative.
3. When the market is declining, altcoins often experience larger drops, making it difficult to hedge quickly.
4. BTC will continue to outperform the total altcoin index after becoming integrated with US stocks.

Comparison and analysis of Nasdaq and Russell 2000

NDX acts as a leading indicator during bull markets, especially benefiting from the rapid development of technology, AI, software, and chip industries in this round. Therefore, during bull markets, NDX significantly outperforms the Russell 2000.

US2000 generally performs well during economic recovery and liquidity easing but faces greater pressure in a high-interest-rate environment. (Figure 2)

In a rising market, NDX is more attractive, but in times of market uncertainty or increased downside risk, US2000 may offer more defensiveness and stability.

Is the high point of US2000 a signal for the Nasdaq to peak?

The high point of the Russell 2000 typically indicates that NDX is about to face a peak or pullback. When the market is overheated, small-cap stocks (which dominate the Russell 2000) may face selling pressure first, serving as a 'warning signal' for the market, as these stocks are more sensitive and easily influenced by changes in market sentiment.

During market pullbacks, US2000 often experiences larger declines, while NDX's retreat is relatively smaller due to the stronger resilience of large-cap technology stocks.

Therefore, the high point of US2000 will reflect changes in the market in advance and become a 'leading indicator' for NDX peaking.

#美国加征关税 reviewed the trend of the US stock market during the last term of #Trump , and see when BTC will stop falling and what will happen when the US stock market opens on Monday~

BTC: Taking on the panic during the US stock market closure (Figure 3)

On February 2, the US government announced a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico, and signed a tariff order on the same day. At the same time, a 10% tariff was imposed on Chinese goods, causing market panic

BTC, as a leading indicator of US stocks, was the first to experience a large decline, and the key pressure level below is 97,000.

If the panic is alleviated after the US stock market opens on Monday, and the BTC price is supported at 97,000, it can be basically judged that the market is returning to rationality as the panic is eliminated.

If the US stock market continues to fall after the opening on Monday and does not recover, BTC may fall below the support and resistance swap level of 97,000 and start a new round of decline.

Looking back at the trade war during the last term (Figure 1, Figure 2)

In 2018, the US stock market experienced significant fluctuations, especially technology stocks (such as Apple and Tesla) were greatly affected by tariffs. Since China is an important market for US technology products, tariffs have put pressure on the profit expectations of these companies.

In 2019, the US stock market fluctuated sharply against the backdrop of the intensified trade war. In particular, in August 2019 and early 2020, market concerns about slowing global economic growth intensified, leading to a sharp decline in the stock market.

Combining the fluctuations of US and Chinese stocks in Figure 1, the following conclusions can be drawn:

1. When the trade war intensifies, the US stock market is hit hard, especially technology stocks and multinational companies are greatly affected by tariffs.

2. When the trade war eases or an agreement is reached, the US stock market rebounds, market confidence recovers, and especially the industries that benefit from the agreement perform well. #比特币四年周期将改变？ $BTC #加密市场反弹 $TRUMP

#加密货币 vs. #美联储利率决议即将公布 : How long will the oscillating trend last
#CryptoMarketTrends is not directly affected by the Fed's policies like traditional financial markets, but is more dependent on liquidity expectations.
Bitcoin usually fluctuates ahead of the Nasdaq because speculative funds will enter the crypto market in advance when the market expects liquidity changes.
If the market expects the#Fedto maintain high interest rates for longer, funds may flow to more stable investments (such as bonds or commodity markets), causing Bitcoin to be under pressure in the short term.

📌
Current market tendency: Since the market is still divided on the timing of rate cuts, Bitcoin may be weak in the short term, but if the Fed finally releases a dovish signal of rate cuts,#BTCmay rise more significantly.
Currently, the daily line of #BTCUSDT is still in the oscillation range of the moving average. It is necessary to focus on whether the 104000 pressure level can be successfully broken through, or fall below the resistance level of 98800 to end the oscillation range
#2025加密货币愿望清单

#2025加密货币愿望清单
On the first day of the Lunar New Year, blessings are still being exchanged among partners in trading.

May you become friends with time, becoming brighter and more detached.

May you experience the powerful confidence within your heart, which saves you from peril time and again, never retreating.

May you strive for excellence, as you did in the beginning, with a heart as clear as a mirror.

May you not seek the approval of others, nor act based on others' opinions, but think entirely for yourself, living as you wish. In moments of trading, you are the king of your own world.

May you find peace whether you have endured the cruelty of the market or returned to warmth.

May you become a star in the trading market, shining like the most open and bright light in the universe.

#DeepSeek One's own strength has caused the collapse of #BTC , when will the decline stop?
1. How deepseek became the biggest negative factor for NASDAQ
NVIDIA (#NVIDIA ) is a global leader in graphics processing units (GPUs), and Broadcom (#AVGO) is a leading provider of semiconductor and infrastructure software solutions. The success of deepseek R1 may raise investor concerns about the growth potential of AI stocks in the future, thereby affecting their stock prices downward.
The decline in AI stock prices usually directly impacts the performance of related investment products and markets. As an important weighted component of the NDX, the fluctuation of AI stock prices will to some extent affect the overall performance of the NDX index. A significant downward trend also appeared in pre-market trading.
2. Bitcoin (BTC) serves as a leading indicator for NDX, taking on some functions of hedging and risk aversion.
In recent years, Bitcoin (BTC) has increasingly been viewed as a leading indicator of risk assets, especially during times of economic uncertainty or market sentiment fluctuations. Although the correlation between Bitcoin and the stock market is not fixed, in many cases, BTC can reflect changes in market sentiment in advance. The similarity in trends can reach 90%, and during non-trading hours of the NDX, BTC has become an important target for sentiment trading or hedging.
3. How much longer will BTC fall?
The narrative around BTC is still in an upward cycle, but this time it is significantly influenced by negative sentiment in the US stock market, which has increased the downward pressure from hedging positions, and during the downward process, multiple long positions in densely concentrated areas have been liquidated, clearing obstacles for price increases. Therefore, today's opening volume decline in the US stock market will be a key signal for BTC price stabilization.

#SP500 Key warning signal, beware of high-level retracement

The current US stock daily level is at a high slope, and is about to hit a new high, and the RSI index remains high, facing a large retracement risk (Figure 1)

At the same time, the VIX index is 14.85 (Figure 2), which usually means that the market has entered a low volatility phase

On the whole, investors generally believe that future volatility will be small. This sentiment often leads to overly optimistic expectations and may even produce irrational prosperity.

At this time, the market may ignore potential risk factors and believe that prices will continue to rise steadily.

In the midst of the hustle and bustle, it is precisely necessary to be vigilant about the risk of retracement, protect the profits that have been obtained, and avoid the risk of missing out on key points through options.

Share a BTC cycle analysis data to judge the current price stage and future upside potential

This chart shows the relationship between the money supply of the world's four major central banks (M2, blue bar chart, left axis) and the price of Bitcoin against the US dollar (yellow line chart, right axis).

As the monetary policies of major central banks gradually tighten (M2 growth slows or even declines), Bitcoin prices may face greater volatility risks, and we need to pay close attention to the direction of central bank policies.

Review historical data:

In periods of increased money supply (such as 2020), Bitcoin prices usually rise sharply.

This suggests that more liquidity entering the market may have driven up the prices of risky assets such as Bitcoin.

In stages where the growth rate of money supply slows or decreases, Bitcoin prices tend to experience large fluctuations or even declines, which is related to reduced market liquidity and reduced investor risk appetite.

Overall, Bitcoin prices seem to be very sensitive to changes in money supply, especially during periods of loose monetary policy, showing strong price growth.

#Bitcoin #币圈翻车日记:我的2024坑爹时刻 #BSC生态活力释放 #比特币行情聚焦 $BTC $BTC

#日本加息 #BTC走势分析
Market Reflexivity Case Analysis -- The Unexpected and Expected in Japan's Interest Rate Hike

Market reflexivity provides us with a way to understand the dynamics of financial markets — that is, the expectations and emotions of market participants not only influence price trends but can also shape the future market environment in return. In this framework, we can interpret the fluctuations of the US dollar against the Japanese yen and the changes in expectations regarding interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan:

1. Downward expectations are preemptively realized

Before the expectations for the Bank of Japan to hike interest rates heated up, market participants generally expected that a rate hike might lead to further declines in the USD/JPY exchange rate. As a result, investors chose to purchase put options, reflecting an increase in demand for the yen. However, as the expectations for a rate hike were almost fully priced in, the market began to reflect on whether this expectation was overly aggressive, leading to a saturation of anticipated price movements and a gradual weakening of price volatility. Recent volatility in BTC options has also confirmed this.

2. Hedging and risk management weakened FOMO sentiment

Investors purchased options to hedge against potential market shocks due to the uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies. However, over time, the market's response to Trump's policies gradually normalized, and with the further heating up of interest rate hike expectations and a clearer understanding of the Bank of Japan's policies, market sentiment stabilized, leading to a decline in option premiums and a decrease in demand for risk management.

In this behavioral pattern, the market not only prices future risks but also the evolution of its emotions and trading strategies in turn affects the actual volatility of the market. The behavior and expectations of investors, to some extent, self-reinforce, forming a feedback loop of market price fluctuations.

3. A "dovish rate hike" scenario leads to a milder bearish impact

If the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike strategy is actually dovish, that is, if the hike is small or there are no further hawkish signals, it may lead to amplified short-term volatility in the USD/JPY exchange rate. A dovish rate hike may cause investors to reassess risks, prompting them to reallocate assets through long trading strategies, which in turn pushes the USD/JPY exchange rate higher.
$BTC $XRP $SOL

#特朗普政策 Storm is coming: Analysis of the major changes in the US dollar, gold, cryptocurrency, and US stocks!
Trump's new round of policies is coming, sweeping across immigration, energy, taxation and other fields! Whether it is promoting the rise of traditional energy or imposing tariffs, Trump's every move affects the fate of the US dollar, gold, commodities, stock markets and even cryptocurrency.
💡 A table analyzes the positive and negative effects of Trump's policies on the market.
$BTC

$TRUMP

#日本加息 will become the biggest bearish factor in the crypto market this week.

The market expects that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates in this week's meeting, with overnight index swaps indicating a 92% chance of a rate hike by the end of the policy meeting on January 23-24.
If Japan confirms a rate hike, it will bring stronger impacts and volatility to the cryptocurrency market, increasing selling pressure on BTC.
The main players in the current market are the Bank of Japan, the financial market, and global central banks, and the interplay among them points towards a bearish trend for BTC under pressure.
1. The interplay between the Bank of Japan and the market
If the signals from the central bank regarding rate hikes are fully interpreted by the market as credible, the market will digest the impact of the rate hike in advance, thereby weakening the immediate effect of the central bank's policy. Meanwhile, #BTC will also rebound and is expected to test the 90000 range.
2. The interplay between yen speculators and the Japanese government
Speculators use central bank policy signals and market sentiment to shift funds to places with lower interest rates to profit from the spread. Such speculative behavior may amplify the volatility of major financial assets.
3. The interplay between the cryptocurrency market and traditional financial markets
A rate hike by the Bank of Japan may enhance the attractiveness of traditional financial assets (such as yen bonds), thereby causing a capital outflow from the cryptocurrency market.
#货币政策 #投资机会 #市场分析 #宏观
$BTC $SOL $XRP

#山寨季何时到来？
After dividing the altcoin market value/BTC market value, the different intervals are divided into three parts: altcoin recession period, altcoin boom period, and altcoin delivery area, and the BTC price is compared.

📊
The bar chart represents #山寨币指数 , which is used to show the strength of the altcoin market.

📈
The line chart is the BTC price trend, showing the market performance of Bitcoin.
1.#AltcoinSeason Prelude The altcoin index is a leading indicator of the BTC peak

🏁
The altcoin index entering a boom period is usually associated with the top of the BTC market, which is a signal of market risk.

📈
As BTC prices fall back, the altcoin market will also be affected accordingly, especially in the falling or oscillating cycle

🔝
Therefore, when the market value share of altcoins touches the prosperity line during the second rise of BTC, it is a sign that the altcoin season has begun
2. Signals of the peak of the altcoin season (all must be met)

⚠️
The market value share of altcoins is in the prosperity zone, and BTC has bottomed out
BTC forward delivery contracts are more than 10% premium to the current period

💣
The US stock market has peaked

📉
RSI over 70 usually indicates overbought and may pull back; over 80 is a strong top signal#RSIdivergence (price hits a new high while RSI No new high) is one of the top signals
3. Judging the garbage time of the altcoin based on the volatility (blue area)

⏳
Based on the low volatility range of BTC at the bottom, filter out the overestimation of the proportion of altcoins winning by volume due to the decline in BTC market value
When the low-volatility bottom appears, the strategy of holding a large number of altcoins should be decisively abandoned
#加密货币市场持续震荡
#山寨币走势展望
$BTC $BNB $ETH