日本加息

There aren't many important events this week, everything is proceeding in an orderly manner after Trump took office! Just keep an eye on the implementation of his policies. For economic data, the US will focus on the small data in the blue box this week, especially in the service sector. A positive outlook for the service sector may increase job opportunities, especially under the prospects of expelling immigrants and controls! Then there's the big bombshell, Japan's interest rate decision. Fresh in memory, Japan had a significant drop in August, but unlike August, the market now believes that a rate hike on Friday is a done deal. As the saying goes, known risks are not risks, meaning the market may have already priced in or taken preparatory actions. Increasing to 0.5% is indeed a bit harsh, likely the highest since 2007. The specific impact can be summarized in one sentence: it will impact the US market, change global asset allocation, and withdraw liquidity! The market trend shows that large-cap cryptocurrencies are basically in a wide range of fluctuations without a clear direction. It seems we need to wait for further market news; it’s not very meaningful, better to observe more and act less!
This is not to be taken as any advice, for reading purposes only, everything is subject to actual implementation.

#日本加息 #BTC走势分析
Market Reflexivity Case Analysis -- The Unexpected and Expected in Japan's Interest Rate Hike

Market reflexivity provides us with a way to understand the dynamics of financial markets — that is, the expectations and emotions of market participants not only influence price trends but can also shape the future market environment in return. In this framework, we can interpret the fluctuations of the US dollar against the Japanese yen and the changes in expectations regarding interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan:

1. Downward expectations are preemptively realized

Before the expectations for the Bank of Japan to hike interest rates heated up, market participants generally expected that a rate hike might lead to further declines in the USD/JPY exchange rate. As a result, investors chose to purchase put options, reflecting an increase in demand for the yen. However, as the expectations for a rate hike were almost fully priced in, the market began to reflect on whether this expectation was overly aggressive, leading to a saturation of anticipated price movements and a gradual weakening of price volatility. Recent volatility in BTC options has also confirmed this.

2. Hedging and risk management weakened FOMO sentiment

Investors purchased options to hedge against potential market shocks due to the uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies. However, over time, the market's response to Trump's policies gradually normalized, and with the further heating up of interest rate hike expectations and a clearer understanding of the Bank of Japan's policies, market sentiment stabilized, leading to a decline in option premiums and a decrease in demand for risk management.

In this behavioral pattern, the market not only prices future risks but also the evolution of its emotions and trading strategies in turn affects the actual volatility of the market. The behavior and expectations of investors, to some extent, self-reinforce, forming a feedback loop of market price fluctuations.

3. A "dovish rate hike" scenario leads to a milder bearish impact

If the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike strategy is actually dovish, that is, if the hike is small or there are no further hawkish signals, it may lead to amplified short-term volatility in the USD/JPY exchange rate. A dovish rate hike may cause investors to reassess risks, prompting them to reallocate assets through long trading strategies, which in turn pushes the USD/JPY exchange rate higher.
$BTC $XRP $SOL

Market Outlook for Next Week: The Dual Impact of Trump's Inauguration and the Japanese Monetary Policy Meeting

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Next week, the market will face a critical moment with Trump's inauguration and the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting. The positive expectations surrounding Trump's inauguration have already been reflected in the market, and the short-term rebound has become a direct representation of this. Meanwhile, the possibility of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan is as high as 90%. Once this news is confirmed, the market may experience severe corrections in the short term, and investors should remain vigilant.
For the operations next week, it is advised that bullish investors be especially cautious, particularly as the market rebound approaches its end, and they should avoid blindly chasing highs. I already mentioned during the day that as the rebound enters the mid-to-late stage, a measured strategy should be adopted to avoid excessive chasing of price increases.
Specifically, on Monday when Trump is inaugurated, market sentiment may briefly surge, and the trading on Monday and Tuesday may be relatively active. However, starting Wednesday, the market trend may change, and investors should heighten their vigilance. Especially on Friday, the market may face a significant downward adjustment, which could even become a “Black Friday.”
#MarketOutlook #TrumpInauguration #日本加息

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$BTC

Japan raises interest rates❓

Indiscriminate plunge📉

Global tycoon Buffett has also done it❓

July 31

The Bank of Japan raises interest rates by 15 basis points

The USD/JPY short-term fell 110 points, now at 151.81

Japan raises interest rates, warning of global financial storm! The era of cheap milk arbitrage ends, and the market panic plunges❗️❗️❗️

Why does Japan's 🇯🇵 interest rate hike have such a big impact on the global financial market?

Because the interest rate of the Bank of Japan was negative in the past few years, it is equivalent to giving you subsidies when you go to the bank to borrow money.

Take milk as an example. In Japan, due to the extremely low borrowing interest rate, even negative, you can borrow cheap milk from Japan at a very low cost. You can use these cheap milk to sell to the United States, Europe and other countries with higher interest rates, get a higher price difference for milk, and make a profit from arbitrage transactions.

This is the reason why we have recently experienced violent fluctuations in global financial and stock markets❓

🌤In the early years, many financial speculators borrowed yen: speculators and low interest rates borrowed yen.

⛅️Then they exchanged yen for US dollars or euros.

🌥Then invest in the United States or Europe: they use these US dollars to invest in assets such as US bonds or US stocks, because the interest rates there are higher, so they can make more profits.

Indeed, the US stock market has gone crazy in the past two years, especially chip stocks.

☀️Difference profit: The profit comes from the difference between the low interest rate paid for borrowing yen and the higher returns obtained by investing in the United States or Europe.

🧐So imagine that when this kind of arbitrage transaction reaches hundreds of billions or trillions of dollars globally, the energy will be amazing. After all, Buffett is also doing this, although he issued yen bonds to invest in Japanese stocks.

When Japanese interest rates suddenly change and this trend is significantly strengthened in the future, this is a panic expectation gap, which will trigger a wave of risks.

Because the demand for yen lent by the Bank of Japan will decrease, and the Bank of Japan also wants to get their milk back as soon as possible.

This is why the global financial market has recently experienced an indiscriminate panic and plunge

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#美国政府转移BTC
#超级央行周
#日本加息

The AI ​​sector has not surged yet

The next one to surge is the AI ​​sector

$LPT $ARKM render fet tao ner $IO ..

You can buy all of these, go and ambush.

Don't be afraid of highs, today's high is tomorrow's bottom! ! !

#加密市场反弹

#美联储宣布降息50个基点
#日本加息

#日本加息
Brother Lin's summary of last night's predictions and market analysis:
Bitcoin's nighttime market analysis, with Trump about to sign an executive order, could trigger significant volatility. Pay attention to two key price levels in advance.

Tonight may see substantial volatility, with resistance at 107300-108000 and support at 102000-102700.
🌟 As expected, I marked a door for everyone in a short time 🚪

After experiencing a pin bar pattern in a short time, Bitcoin's price surged strongly, mainly due to the unemployment claims data released by the U.S. at 21:30, which showed favorable results. This data is not very significant and usually only causes short-term fluctuations.

At 3:30 AM Beijing time on the 24th, Trump will sign a series of executive orders, with relevant parties indicating that they may include favorable content for cryptocurrencies. Currently, Bitcoin is being pushed up by the positive unemployment claims data, and the signing of the executive orders may further drive the trend.

Also, friends, asking Brother Lin about the judgment on today's yen interest rate hike, currently believes the impact is minimal, unless it can crash the U.S. stock market like in previous instances. However, from the current situation, this seems unlikely, but it may still cause some market fluctuations, so it’s worth keeping an eye on.

Please don't criticize me, I have confidence in my words, 【minimal impact】【may cause some market fluctuations】

Coinlist appears to be dumping $ONDO

An address belonging to Coinlist is depositing large amounts of $ONDO to the centralized exchange. On 08/01, nearly $5.2 million in $ONDO was deposited.

In addition, according to Scopechat data, a large amount of $ONDO was transferred to centralized exchanges from 08/01 to 08/06.
Usually if the project party wants to accumulate tokens, it will transfer the tokens from the exchange to the wallet on the chain, and if it wants to sell the tokens, it will transfer the tokens to the centralized exchange.
(Because the liquidity of centralized exchanges is usually better)

Coupled with the recent overall weakening trend in the overall economy, it is very likely that it is all selling.
However, $ONDO is the leader in the RWA sector, and its fundamentals are very strong. Perhaps we can observe whether there are addresses that start to accumulate tokens on the chain after the market stabilizes.
Or gradually accumulate in the form of regular quotas, which is also a relatively conservative approach.
(Actually, from the picture above, you can find that on 08/05, someone had already started to accumulate a small amount of $ONDO)

#RWA赛道 #美联储何时降息？ #日本加息

A few words about this decline:
1. If every halving requires a black swan, then Japan’s interest rate hike is definitely the trigger for this round of black swans. We should also pay close attention to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in the early morning of the 21st. Powell's speech is best if it is indifferent, but if it is slightly negative, it may continue to trigger a chain reaction!
2. The decline of Bitcoin and Ethereum may not have bottomed out yet! The support level of the pie is 59000, 55000, 53000.
3. The spring of altcoins has not yet arrived. The main reason is still the problem of insufficient capital liquidity. In the past year, altcoins could only survive from the overflow funds from Bitcoin’s short-lived rise, and the average price of altcoins was less than 20% of the previous high.
4. With the expectations of halving and interest rate cuts, it can still be judged that Bitcoin is still in the bull market stage based on the current trend. The intensity of this decline determines the height of the entire bull market's rise.
5. In this adjustment, almost all long contracts will be wiped out, and the assets of spot holders will also withdraw significantly. Clearing long positions and profit taking is an important purpose of this adjustment.
6. Adhere to the idea of ​​spot and long-term currency holding, and buy big when there is a big drop, especially looking for the best buying point in the panic market of flash crash. Making the greediest decisions at the most panicked moment is a surefire way to win in the bull market.

★Pay attention to new strategies and don’t get lost in investing!

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Japan raised rates by 25 basis points, as expected. The market's muted reaction is because it has already priced this in; the realization of negative factors has reduced the shock, making it more favorable for subsequent upward trends.

On the other hand, core policies:

Protection of Crypto Rights: Trump signed an executive order clearly protecting citizens' legal rights to develop, self-custody, trade, and mine, prohibiting illegal government interference.

Complete Ban on CBDCs: Prohibiting the development and circulation of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) within the United States, stating that they threaten financial stability and citizen privacy.

Promotion of Dollar Stablecoins: The executive order requires federal agencies to support the global application of compliant dollar stablecoins, consolidating the dollar's dominant position.
Revocation of Controversial SEC Policies: Immediately abolish SEC accounting standard SAB-121, lifting restrictions on banks holding crypto assets, unlocking institutional participation potential.

National Crypto Reserve Program: Evaluating the establishment of a national reserve of digital assets composed of law enforcement seized assets. #日本加息

Japan may raise interest rates again in December!

On August 23, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications of Japan released the inflation data for July. The data showed that Japan's CPI was 108.3 in July, up 2.7% year-on-year, 0.1 percentage point higher than the 2.6% in the previous month, and expanded for three consecutive months.

Analysts at Meiji Yasuda Research Institute expect that the Bank of Japan will continue to implement monetary normalization policies and raise interest rates again in December.

If Japan raises interest rates again, the closing of yen carry trades will come back, and at that time, it will once again impact the global financial market, including the crypto market!

#日本加息 #BTC☀ #内容挖矿

[Bad news: The Bank of Japan raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years, ending the eight-year era of negative interest rates. After the bad news materialized, ★Bitcoin and Ethereum entered an adjustment cycle]

On March 19, the official website of the Bank of Japan released the interest rate resolution of the March interest rate meeting. In terms of market operation guidance, the Bank of Japan will support the unsecured overnight lending rate to remain within the range of 0% to 0.1%, in line with market expectations. In order to achieve this interest rate guidance, the Bank of Japan increased the interest rate on excess reserve deposits of commercial banks with the Bank of Japan from the previous -0.1% to 0.1% (excluding statutory reserves). The new interest rate will take effect on March 21. This is the first time the Bank of Japan has raised interest rates since 2007, and the eight-year era of negative interest rates has officially come to an end.

At the same time, the Bank of Japan will continue to purchase Japanese government bonds at roughly the same scale as before. If long-term interest rates rise rapidly, the Bank of Japan will respond flexibly, such as increasing the number of purchases of Japanese government bonds and conducting fixed-rate purchases of Japanese government bonds.

On January 29, 2016, the Bank of Japan announced new easing measures and decided to reduce the interest rate on excess reserve deposits of commercial banks with the Bank of Japan from the previous 0.1% to -0.1% starting from February 16, 2016. Japan Since then, we have entered the era of “negative interest rates”.

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The last 8.5% drop was also affected by Japan's interest rate hike policy. Tomorrow, Friday, around 11:00 am, it is recommended to pay attention to the interest rate decision of the Bank of Japan.

#日本央行 #日本加息

The impact of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike on Bitcoin or any cryptocurrency can be mainly considered from the following aspects: (mainly depends on the mood of Gouzhuang)
Investor Sentiment: Central bank interest rate hikes are often seen as a measure to combat inflation, meaning the purchasing power of the currency is likely to increase. In this case, investors may move funds from riskier assets, such as Bitcoin, to investments with lower risk or more stable returns, such as bonds or deposits. This could cause the price of Bitcoin to fall.
Currency Value: Raising interest rates will cause the yen to appreciate, which may affect the price at which Bitcoin trades against the yen. If the yen appreciates, the cost of buying Bitcoin with yen will rise, potentially reducing demand for Bitcoin from Japanese investors.
Global market impact: Although the Bank of Japan's policies directly affect the Japanese yen, in the globalized financial market, currencies and asset prices of various countries affect each other. The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike may trigger other central banks to follow suit, or may affect global investors' views on risky assets, thereby affecting the global market price of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin.
Economic growth expectations: Interest rate hikes are usually carried out in the context of good economic growth and rising inflationary pressure. If the market interprets that the economy is in a growth phase, this could increase demand for various assets, including Bitcoin, as investors seek higher returns.
Interest rates and returns: Rising interest rates means that the returns on traditional financial products such as time deposits and bonds increase, which may attract funds originally invested in high-risk assets such as Bitcoin to flow into more stable investment channels.

The impact of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike on Bitcoin is complex and changeable, and requires comprehensive consideration of factors such as the global economic environment, market sentiment, and investor behavior. In addition, as an emerging non-traditional asset, Bitcoin’s price fluctuations are affected by more extensive and complex factors.
The above official general answer does not serve as a main reference. The core points are the following:
The market sentiment driven by the purchasing power of the yen, fund transfers, liquidity withdrawal, risk aversion, and interest rate hike percentages means that how the market interprets it is very important!
While inflation in the United States is currently stable, Xiaori's inflation is rising, which does not seem very rational. The current interest rate in Xiaori is -0.1. If the interest rate does not become positive, that is, +0.1, I think it will not cause over-interpretation by the market. There are too many macro-influencing factors, as well as the rhetoric of the Bank of Japan’s factions. Who has the greater proportion of doves and hawks is also a major concern. , anyway, you can pay attention to cyclical and long-term things. If you do small-cycle and short-term things, I personally think it’s enough to reduce the risk of the position. Don’t worry too much. #日本加息

The Japanese Liberal Democratic Party's Prime Minister election results are out, bringing down the cryptocurrency market

Today, Japan's new Liberal Democratic Party Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba was successfully elected in the party leader competition. He will replace Fumiaki Kishio as Japan's new Prime Minister on October 1.

Originally, the results of Japan's interest rate hikes and rate cuts would not be known until the normal announcement date. However, Shigeru Ishiba is a loyal supporter of interest rate hikes. He just became the party leader today and frightened the Japanese stock market. The Nikkei 225 index was once circuit-breaker, with the highest decline reaching 5.6%.

This fire can probably only be suppressed by his American father. There is no good result in going against the American father. It is impossible to get rid of the control of the American father and end the fate of being sucked blood under such a Japanese system.

#日本加息 #美国比特币现货ETF累计净流入创新高

Tell me, how much is appropriate? #日本加息

March 20 (31 days countdown to halving) New strategy "Morning News" to understand the currency circle in 60 seconds every day

1. After Japan announced an interest rate hike, Bitcoin fell to $61,555 and Ethereum fell to $3,150.
2. MicroStrategy’s US micro strategy added approximately 9,245 Bitcoins, with an average price of US$67,382.
3. RWA project MANTRA completed US$11 million in financing, led by Shorooq Partners
4. Web3 entertainment platform ZKasino completed Series A financing at a valuation of US$350 million, with participation from MEXC and others
5. Ethereum rebounds above $3,300
6. Genesis agrees to pay $21 million in fine to settle with SEC
7. Puffer Finance reaches cooperation with Layer 3 network zkLink Nova
8. The Arena will launch ARENA tokens and start airdrops
9. Grayscale transfers 800 BTC to Coinbase Prime
10. The U.S. blockchain sector generally fell, with MicroStrategy falling more than 11%
11. Uniswap report: Most transactions in the protocol before Dencun upgrade were conducted on Layer 2
12. Solana Lianchuang calls for stopping the pre-sale transfer issuance model
13. Uplink Finance, the Bitcoin ecological stablecoin protocol, will support all Merlin Chain M-Token assets
14. Bitcoin native liquidity and stablecoin DeFi protocol Yala announces cooperation with Avail
15. Stellar launches smart contract platform Soroban and launches US$100 million ecological incentive plan
16. Hedging protocol Umoja completed a US$4 million seed round of financing, with participation from Coinbase and others.
17. SynFutures’ trading volume exceeded US$3 billion within two weeks of its launch
18. MicroStrategy completes issuance of US$603.75 million convertible notes
19. Dune integrates Polkadot ecological data
20. Coinbase has listed Akash Network (AKT)

Follow the new strategy #每天60秒读懂币圈 $BTC #热门话题 #减半 #日本加息

Between 7 AM and 8 AM today, $BTC
The bullish main force formed a continuous upward surge, ultimately breaking through the 70,000 mark, with a relative high point at 71,607. It was suppressed by resistance at 71,300, closing down, and is currently stabilizing around 70,887!

My viewpoint hasn’t changed; I still don’t see bullish this week! My conclusion is definitely bearish! The upward breakthrough of 70,000 is a process, and the extension of the bullish top-touching sentiment has made Bitcoin perform relatively strongly! At the same time, it has driven the head mountain imitation ETH and SOL to also break new highs!

My previous deduction process has been achieved, and the next step is to continue pulling up to 75,000? 80,000?

I feel it’s not yet time to go up directly; my personal viewpoint remains. A surge like this without a pullback of 1,000 price points makes me even more worried! This further drives my flash crash sentiment!
I don’t know what everyone thinks? Perhaps many retail investors are already starting to FOMO, wondering why they didn’t buy during the 68,000-69,000 range? Right?
I think that’s unnecessary. I firmly believe that there will be a deep pullback, and I maintain this viewpoint. I will patiently wait for the big show on the 31st!

Currently
Upper resistance 71,300
Lower support 70,000

The bottom is indeed rising, but the forces at play are mutual; the faster I pull up, the quicker it may drop! As the saying goes: A week of hard effort to rise, it only takes 10 seconds to fall!

Please, good brothers, don't FOMO. If you have cash, hold on tight! If you’re empty-handed with no orders, don’t rush; wait for an opportunity! Good brothers holding long contracts can hold on a bit longer. You can set profit stop-loss at 70,300-70,500. For those holding short positions, it’s not recommended to hold; stop-loss if needed, unless you are very strong and BTC rises to 1 million USD before you get liquidated, don't take my words lightly! Because even though I generally see bearish this week, we can’t accurately predict when the downturn will specifically come!

Follow Chen Ge to not get lost, like and comment to increase wealth!
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#日本加息 Remember in December 2023, the Bank of Japan suddenly made a big news, adjusting the yield curve control (YCC), which caused a major earthquake in the market - the yen soared, the USD/JPY fell directly by 2%, the Nikkei 225 fell by more than 3% in one day, and even Bitcoin against the US dollar was affected, with a fluctuation range of more than 5% on the same day, first a sharp drop and then a strong rebound. The situation is a little different this time, because the market has long expected the possible interest rate hike, so the volatility is estimated to be not so drastic, but the impact is still not to be underestimated.

If Japan really raises the interest rate to 0.50% tomorrow (January 24), the market may feel that the global interest rate has not yet reached the top, which will put a lot of pressure on US stocks, especially high-valuation technology sectors such as the Nasdaq. And Bitcoin against the US dollar will not be immune this time. The appreciation of the yen may lead to a weakening of the US dollar. It stands to reason that it is good for Bitcoin, but the expectation of an interest rate hike will put pressure on overall risk assets, and Bitcoin may experience a 2%-4% correction in the short term.

If the Bank of Japan does not take action, market sentiment will be relaxed, the US dollar may weaken, and Bitcoin is expected to rebound by 3%-5% against the US dollar. Although the short-term volatility this time is expected to be moderate, not as crazy as the last unexpected adjustment, Bitcoin will still be affected by the ripple effect of the global capital market and continue to be a barometer of liquidity changes. This Bank of Japan meeting is not just a matter for Japan. Its impact has already overflowed and has affected the nerves of global investors.

The Japanese monetary policy decision has been postponed to the afternoon, possibly at 1:30 PM, at the latest at 2:30 PM. It used to be in the morning at 10 or 11 AM. It seems Japan is also in a dilemma, afraid of collapsing the US stock market and angering Trump. We can only wait for the announcement. The market generally expects an interest rate hike, and if it cannot proceed as scheduled, it will be a positive signal.

$BTC #日本加息