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๐ฆ ๐ Fed Expectations:
At 84.5%, the Probability of Holding Rates in July.
According to the latest data from the CME FedWatch report reported by Jin10, financial markets assign an 84.5% probability to the Federal Reserve (Fed) keeping interest rates unchanged at its next July meeting.
๐ Key takeaways from the projections:
๐ July decision: Against the broad consensus of holding rates steady, there is only a 15.5% probability of seeing a 25-basis-point increase this month.
๐ฎ Outlook for September: For the September meeting, the picture changes; the probability of holding rates with no accumulated changes falls to 36%.
In contrast, the option of an accumulated 25-basis-point increase is positioned as the most likely scenario with 55.1%, while a more aggressive 50-basis-point increase records 8.9%.
๐ฌ With a rate adjustment increasingly likely for September, how do you think equity markets and cryptocurrencies will react? Share your opinion below! ๐๐ฅ
$BTC
$BNB
$SOL
#Fed #ReservaFederal #CMEFedWatch #WallStreet #FinanceNews
At 84.5%, the Probability of Holding Rates in July.
According to the latest data from the CME FedWatch report reported by Jin10, financial markets assign an 84.5% probability to the Federal Reserve (Fed) keeping interest rates unchanged at its next July meeting.
๐ Key takeaways from the projections:
๐ July decision: Against the broad consensus of holding rates steady, there is only a 15.5% probability of seeing a 25-basis-point increase this month.
๐ฎ Outlook for September: For the September meeting, the picture changes; the probability of holding rates with no accumulated changes falls to 36%.
In contrast, the option of an accumulated 25-basis-point increase is positioned as the most likely scenario with 55.1%, while a more aggressive 50-basis-point increase records 8.9%.
๐ฌ With a rate adjustment increasingly likely for September, how do you think equity markets and cryptocurrencies will react? Share your opinion below! ๐๐ฅ
$BTC
$BNB
$SOL
#Fed #ReservaFederal #CMEFedWatch #WallStreet #FinanceNews
๐ GOLDMAN SACHS CUTS ITS PRICE TARGET FOR GOLD TO $4,900! ๐ฆ
The financial giant has shaken up the commodities boards by slashing its year-end forecast for the precious metal for a heavy reason: the Federal Reserve won't be lowering rates this year.
๐ Key points from the report:
The Cut: Goldman Sachs reduced the gold target by $500, dropping from its previous projection of $5,400 to a new expectation of $4,900 per ounce.
The "Kevin Warsh Effect": Following the surprising hawkish stance of the new Fed chair, the market no longer anticipates rate cuts in 2026. Instead, the odds of a rate hike in December skyrocketed to 87%, which undermines gold, as it doesn't yield direct returns.
There's still bullish ground: While they tempered short-term enthusiasm, structural analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven clarify that gold is still on track to recover in the second half of the year from its current levels close to $4,300.
โ ๏ธ Risk Alert: Goldman warns that if the Fed decides to raise rates ahead of schedule (like in September), the demand for gold as a macroeconomic hedge could quickly crumble, pushing prices down to $4,400.
#Oro #Finanzas #ReservaFederal #Inversiones
$BTC
$USDC
$ETH
The financial giant has shaken up the commodities boards by slashing its year-end forecast for the precious metal for a heavy reason: the Federal Reserve won't be lowering rates this year.
๐ Key points from the report:
The Cut: Goldman Sachs reduced the gold target by $500, dropping from its previous projection of $5,400 to a new expectation of $4,900 per ounce.
The "Kevin Warsh Effect": Following the surprising hawkish stance of the new Fed chair, the market no longer anticipates rate cuts in 2026. Instead, the odds of a rate hike in December skyrocketed to 87%, which undermines gold, as it doesn't yield direct returns.
There's still bullish ground: While they tempered short-term enthusiasm, structural analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven clarify that gold is still on track to recover in the second half of the year from its current levels close to $4,300.
โ ๏ธ Risk Alert: Goldman warns that if the Fed decides to raise rates ahead of schedule (like in September), the demand for gold as a macroeconomic hedge could quickly crumble, pushing prices down to $4,400.
#Oro #Finanzas #ReservaFederal #Inversiones
$BTC
$USDC
$ETH
The Fed Vice Chair Jefferson says policies could be strengthened further if inflation remains elevated
The Federal Reserve vice chair Philip Jefferson warned that it may be necessary to change monetary policy if inflation does not reach the 2% target set by the central bank; this points to ongoing pressure on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Speaking amid the FOMC decision to keep the federal funds rate at 3.5%, Jefferson reaffirmed the Federal Reserveโs commitment to its inflation-related mandate. His comments suggest that the current pause in rate adjustments is conditional, not permanent. A tighter policy remains an option if price pressures persist.
The cryptocurrency markets, which tend to move inversely with expectations regarding the exchange rate, are still taking a "wait and see" approach as traders monitor inflation-related data for signals about the Fedโs next move.
Source
#Fed #fomc #EEUU #reservafederal #crypto $BTC
The Federal Reserve vice chair Philip Jefferson warned that it may be necessary to change monetary policy if inflation does not reach the 2% target set by the central bank; this points to ongoing pressure on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Speaking amid the FOMC decision to keep the federal funds rate at 3.5%, Jefferson reaffirmed the Federal Reserveโs commitment to its inflation-related mandate. His comments suggest that the current pause in rate adjustments is conditional, not permanent. A tighter policy remains an option if price pressures persist.
The cryptocurrency markets, which tend to move inversely with expectations regarding the exchange rate, are still taking a "wait and see" approach as traders monitor inflation-related data for signals about the Fedโs next move.
Source
#Fed #fomc #EEUU #reservafederal #crypto $BTC
๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ$XRP US Treasury bond prices rose after inflation data came in lower than expected, leading traders to scale back bets on an interest-rate increase by the Federal Reserve.
The two-year note yield fell 14 basis points to 4.14%, its largest daily drop since February.
As a result, the probability of a rate hike in July fell to around 20%, down from 40% beforehand.
Analysts say the data supports the view that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged.
โ#inflaciรณn #EEUU #BonosTesoro #ReservaFederal #MercadosFinancieros
The two-year note yield fell 14 basis points to 4.14%, its largest daily drop since February.
As a result, the probability of a rate hike in July fell to around 20%, down from 40% beforehand.
Analysts say the data supports the view that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged.
โ#inflaciรณn #EEUU #BonosTesoro #ReservaFederal #MercadosFinancieros
Custodia Bank has been fighting the Fed for six years at the Supreme Court
Custodia Bank has filed a petition for authorization in the United States. The Supreme Court has intensified its long-running dispute with the Federal Reserve over access to a master accountโa basic banking service that allows institutions to keep funds directly at the Fed and process payments.
At the center of the case is an issue the Supreme Court has yet to resolve: whether the regional presidents of the Federal Reserve Bank have the legal authority to deny master account requests from state-chartered institutions. Custodia argues that this discretionary denial power threatens the viability of crypto-focused banking models and other innovators operating under state laws.
The Wyoming-based bank has been seeking a Fed master account for six years. Without it, Custodia cannot access the Federal Reserveโs payment channels directly and must rely on intermediary banks; this creates a structural disadvantage that limits its operations. This outcome could set a precedent that affects how native crypto banks and fintech institutions access the U.S. financial system.
Source
#EEUU #banco #Fed #Custodia #reservafederal $BTC $ETH $SOL
Custodia Bank has filed a petition for authorization in the United States. The Supreme Court has intensified its long-running dispute with the Federal Reserve over access to a master accountโa basic banking service that allows institutions to keep funds directly at the Fed and process payments.
At the center of the case is an issue the Supreme Court has yet to resolve: whether the regional presidents of the Federal Reserve Bank have the legal authority to deny master account requests from state-chartered institutions. Custodia argues that this discretionary denial power threatens the viability of crypto-focused banking models and other innovators operating under state laws.
The Wyoming-based bank has been seeking a Fed master account for six years. Without it, Custodia cannot access the Federal Reserveโs payment channels directly and must rely on intermediary banks; this creates a structural disadvantage that limits its operations. This outcome could set a precedent that affects how native crypto banks and fintech institutions access the U.S. financial system.
Source
#EEUU #banco #Fed #Custodia #reservafederal $BTC $ETH $SOL
๐ MACRO KEY: The market on edge over May's PCE inflation data and the direction of the S&P 500 ๐ฆ
๐
Market analysts agree that the upcoming report on the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) for May will be the crucial factor that dictates the immediate path of the S&P 500 index.
This indicator, established as the preferred inflation metric by the Federal Reserve (Fed), will be officially released on Thursday, June 25, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. EDT.
Investor expectation and tension are at a peak as this key data comes right after a Fed meeting that adopted a notably hawkish tone.
๐ฏ Critical Points and Fed Projections
2026 Forecast: The Federal Reserve raised its core PCE projection to 3.3% for the end of this year.
Rate Path: These tighter projections have shifted market consensus, raising expectations for up to three interest rate hikes this year.
Traders are looking to confirm whether the underlying figures manage to cool off or if they validate the Fed's tightening monetary policy, which could unleash volatility in both traditional equity markets and the crypto ecosystem
$BTC
$ETH
$BNB
#BinanceSquare #ReservaFederal #SP500 #Macroeconomia #TasasDeInteres
Market analysts agree that the upcoming report on the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) for May will be the crucial factor that dictates the immediate path of the S&P 500 index.
This indicator, established as the preferred inflation metric by the Federal Reserve (Fed), will be officially released on Thursday, June 25, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. EDT.
Investor expectation and tension are at a peak as this key data comes right after a Fed meeting that adopted a notably hawkish tone.
๐ฏ Critical Points and Fed Projections
2026 Forecast: The Federal Reserve raised its core PCE projection to 3.3% for the end of this year.
Rate Path: These tighter projections have shifted market consensus, raising expectations for up to three interest rate hikes this year.
Traders are looking to confirm whether the underlying figures manage to cool off or if they validate the Fed's tightening monetary policy, which could unleash volatility in both traditional equity markets and the crypto ecosystem
$BTC
$ETH
$BNB
#BinanceSquare #ReservaFederal #SP500 #Macroeconomia #TasasDeInteres
๐ฅ $BTC
The Federal Reserve, the debt ceiling, and why Bitcoin is in a tricky spot.$US
We can think of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy as a gravity mechanism affecting financial assets. High rates push capital towards yield-generating instruments like Treasury bonds, making it tough for Bitcoin, which doesnโt offer yields, to attract investments. This dynamic has been weighing on the crypto market since late 2024.
However, with U.S. debt interest payments surpassing a trillion dollars annually and rising Treasury yields, the dollar's stability is at risk. In this context, the narrative of Bitcoin as "digital gold" is gaining traction. Incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh recently suggested a 5% allocation to BTC in the $28 trillion U.S. Treasury portfolio as an inflation hedge, highlighting a shift in perception towards Bitcoin.
Konstantinos Chrysikos from Kudotrade pointed out that improved negotiations in the Middle East are reducing Treasury yields, easing the pressure on Bitcoin. It's crucial to understand how the Fed's decisions on interest rates impact Bitcoin, as a single change could trigger a rally or a drop, depending on the accompanying inflation data.#reservafederal
The Federal Reserve, the debt ceiling, and why Bitcoin is in a tricky spot.$US
We can think of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy as a gravity mechanism affecting financial assets. High rates push capital towards yield-generating instruments like Treasury bonds, making it tough for Bitcoin, which doesnโt offer yields, to attract investments. This dynamic has been weighing on the crypto market since late 2024.
However, with U.S. debt interest payments surpassing a trillion dollars annually and rising Treasury yields, the dollar's stability is at risk. In this context, the narrative of Bitcoin as "digital gold" is gaining traction. Incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh recently suggested a 5% allocation to BTC in the $28 trillion U.S. Treasury portfolio as an inflation hedge, highlighting a shift in perception towards Bitcoin.
Konstantinos Chrysikos from Kudotrade pointed out that improved negotiations in the Middle East are reducing Treasury yields, easing the pressure on Bitcoin. It's crucial to understand how the Fed's decisions on interest rates impact Bitcoin, as a single change could trigger a rally or a drop, depending on the accompanying inflation data.#reservafederal
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