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✨Topic: Will CPI Trigger Rate Hike?

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- Nonfarm payrolls beat expectations and CPI is around the corner, do you think the Fed will hike or hold the rate?
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$BTC
If the Fed decides to sit on its hands, what’s the bloody logic behind it then?

​Warsh has been dead clear that he’s not keen on knee-jerk reactions to a single bit of data

Up at Jackson Hole, he explicitly stated that they shouldn't rely on isolated data points since trends matter most, wrapping up by saying they are committed to a discipline, not a decision

​Today’s CPI wasn’t entirely proper clear-cut, was it? Core CPI MoM came in at +0.3% against the +0.2% expected, whilst Core CPI YoY landed at +2.4%, the lowest it’s been since March '21. The monthly figure gives reason for a bump up, but the YoY trend, mind you, is still heading t'other way

​Timing’s the key here. With the FOMC on Sep 15–16, August PCE on Sep 30, and the next FOMC on Oct 27–28, if Warsh sticks to his guns, the Fed could easily hold off this time and hang about for the August PCE, September jobs numbers, September CPI, and any sign of whether pricier oil is creeping into core inflation before sorting it out properly in October

​It really comes down to two scenarios, innit?
​The case for a hike assumes the labour market’s still solid with unemployment at 4.1% and payrolls at 162K, Core CPI topped expectations, and policy’s barely doing much restricting

​The case for a hold argues that while Core CPI at +0.3% is a bit dodgy, one dodgy month doesn't mean the whole disinflation trend has gone belly-up

​The market's clearly backing the first lot, but I still reckon holding off for just one more meeting is a sound shout, provided the Fed thinks it’s got the elbow room to wait

$ETH
$SOL
#CPIWatch

Guys, still confused about the crazy wick on $BTC around $80,000.

CPI came in line, as I shared before the release. The core CPI YoY was higher than expected. Overall, it was neutral to bearish data, but why did this crazy wick print?

Nect three dates to remember!
That’s what somebody would call a liquidity grab, but what I conclude is that it was a big-money trap to get their exit. They created exit liquidity with these green candles, provided FOMO, and comfortably got their exit above $79,500. The reason is that Friday is coming and then we have two days off. They know the market will be volatile, and with the upcoming inflation numbers, there can be something like a Black Monday. Why?

15 September
Clarity Act, with 82% odds of rejection.

16 September
A 25 bps increase in rates, with 81% odds of a hike in this Fed interest-rate decision.

18 September
The BOJ rate decision, where the forecast is already given at 1.25%, showing an expected increase of 25 bps.

What’s going to trigger the bearish move?

What I’m looking at is the technicals. Technically, a close under $76,700 would confirm it, and with a weekly closing under this zone, we will look straight for $69,000.
And fundamentally are those following data!
And the days! Mark them

But yes, we cannot ignore the wick at $83,000. If that wick is tested and it becomes another liquidity grab, we can look toward $64,000 even!

So stay sharp. The scalp on BTC is still running over 1:2 in green. Let’s see where it goes next.
$ETH done a great move but will be back soon where it starded that crazy bullish move!

Drop a like and your opinions in the comments.

#CPIWatch

‼️Rate hike odds jumped to 91% after CPI

Meanwhile, the market is ripping higher as if the Fed is about to start cutting rates.

ITS A TRAP

$BTC High Volatility Ahead ‼️

#CPIWatch

🔥 CPI COULD CHANGE EVERYTHING — RATE HIKE AHEAD? 🔥

📊 The latest Nonfarm Payrolls beat expectations, showing that the U.S. labor market remains stronger than many expected. Now all eyes are turning toward the upcoming CPI inflation data. 🇺🇸📈

🏦 The big question is whether the Federal Reserve will hike rates or hold. If CPI comes in hotter than expected, the Fed could maintain a more hawkish stance for longer. Higher rates can reduce liquidity and put pressure on risk assets. ⚠️

🐻 My Outlook: Bearish

I’m leaning bearish in the short term, especially if inflation surprises to the upside. 📉 Stocks and crypto could face increased selling pressure, while market volatility may rise sharply. Gold could also react depending on the strength of the dollar and changing rate expectations. 🥇💵

🎯 I’m watching CPI closely before making any major move. One number can completely change market sentiment!

What’s your view? 🐻 Bearish or 🐂 Bullish

#CPIWatch

#CPIWatch Bitcoin’s CPI Reaction Wasn’t Really About the Headline

Bitcoin initially sold off after August U.S. CPI landed — but the interesting part is that the headline number was broadly expected.

CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year. Core CPI increased 0.3% m/m and 2.4% y/y. The bigger issue was the monthly core reading: it came in above the 0.2% expectation, adding pressure to the Fed’s policy outlook.

My take: the market is reacting less to “inflation is suddenly exploding” and more to the potential policy path.

The Fed’s September 15–16 meeting is now the main event. Rate-hike expectations jumped materially after the CPI release.

That creates an interesting setup for BTC.

If a hike becomes fully priced in, the actual decision may produce less downside than the initial CPI reaction suggests. The bigger risk, in my view, is the Fed’s forward guidance — especially whether policymakers signal that September could mark the beginning of a renewed tightening cycle rather than a one-off adjustment.

So I’m watching the reaction around the Fed, not just the CPI number.

The contradiction is simple: persistent inflation can pressure liquidity, but a fully anticipated hike can also become a “sell the rumor, buy the fact” scenario.

The next move may depend more on what the Fed says than what CPI already said.

Not financial advice. Do your own research.

#cpiwatch
🔥 CPI WATCH: U.S. INFLATION JUST GAVE THE FED ANOTHER REASON TO STAY HAWKISH
The latest U.S. inflation data is out — and the message for risk assets, including crypto, is mixed.
📊 AUGUST CPI:
• Headline CPI: +0.4% MoM
• Headline CPI: +3.4% YoY
• Core CPI: +0.3% MoM
• Core CPI: +2.4% YoY
Headline inflation remained at 3.4% year over year, while monthly price growth accelerated. Energy costs were a major contributor, with gasoline and other motor-fuel prices rising sharply.
WHY CRYPTO SHOULD CARE:
Higher-than-ideal inflation can reduce expectations for easier monetary policy.
That can mean:
→ Higher Treasury yields
→ Potentially stronger demand for the dollar
→ Tighter financial conditions
→ More pressure on speculative assets such as BTC and altcoins
Markets are now heavily focused on the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision, with Reuters reporting that traders were pricing a high probability of a 25-basis-point hike following the CPI release.
⚠️ BUT HERE'S THE IMPORTANT PART:
CPI alone does NOT determine Bitcoin's next move.
Crypto can still react to ETF flows, liquidity, Treasury yields, the dollar, geopolitical developments and positioning.
For traders, the key question isn't simply:
"Is CPI bullish or bearish?"
It's:
"How does CPI change expectations for the Fed — and how does the market price that change?"
📌 WATCH:
• BTC reaction around major support/resistance
• U.S. Treasury yields
• DXY
• Fed rate expectations
• Spot ETF flows
• BTC/ETH volatility after the Fed decision
No guaranteed direction. No blind bullish or bearish call.
CPI is one piece of the macro puzzle — the market reaction is what matters next.
What are you watching more closely after this CPI print: Bitcoin, DXY, or Treasury yields?
$MET $TFUEL $DOGS

#cpiwatch CPI is out-and the market is watching the fed 👀
US CPI : 3.4% YoY
CORE CPI : 2.4% YoY
inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target 🎯 increasing rate-hike expectations .
For crypto : volatility may be just getting started ...
BTC Bull 🐂 or Bear 🐻- Who win Next ?👀
Always DYOR No Financial advice !
$BTC

The market is entering a very sensitive moment as all eyes turn to the upcoming CPI report. After nonfarm payrolls came in stronger than expected, the big question now is whether inflation will remain hot enough to keep the Fed under pressure.

In my view, this CPI print could become the key trigger for the next short-term move across stocks, gold, and other risk assets. If CPI comes in hotter than expected, rate hike expectations could rise again, which may put pressure on equities and create fresh uncertainty in the market.

On the other hand, if inflation shows signs of cooling, traders may start pricing in a more dovish stance from the Fed, which could support a bullish reaction in stocks and improve overall sentiment.

Gold could also see strong volatility depending on how the market interprets inflation and policy expectations. I think this is one of those events where a single number can quickly shift market direction, so traders should stay alert and manage risk carefully.

Right now, CPI is not just data, it is a potential market-moving catalyst.

#CPIWatch $BTC $ETH $SOL

CPI COULD CHANGE THE FED’S NEXT MOVE

Nonfarm payrolls came in stronger than expected, so I’m paying even more attention to the inflation data now.

CPI is the next big test. If price pressures stay sticky, I could see Treasury yields moving higher and markets dialing back expectations for easier policy. That would likely keep pressure on rate sensitive stocks, while gold could see some volatility.

If CPI cools, I think the conversation shifts quickly back toward rate cuts and a softer Fed stance.

I’m watching headline CPI, core CPI, payroll strength and Treasury yields together. For me, the key is not just whether CPI beats or misses expectations, but how the Fed and markets interpret the combination of strong jobs and inflation.

Right now, I’m leaning toward a Fed hold, but I’m keeping that view flexible until the CPI number lands.

Bullish or bearish into CPI? What stock or gold trade are you holding? 👀
#CPIWatch
$BTC $ETH $SOL

#cpiwatch
Nonfarm payrolls just beat expectations again… and now everyone’s staring at the upcoming CPI print like it’s the final boss. 😅
Honestly, I’m leaning toward the Fed holding rates for now. The labor market is still solid but not overheating the way it was last year, and any surprise on the inflation side could still force them to stay cautious. A hike right after strong jobs data feels a bit aggressive unless CPI comes in really hot.
Personally I’m slightly bullish on gold right now as a hedge, and I’ve been slowly adding to my BTC position on dips. Stocks look mixed — tech is still holding up but I’m not going all-in until we see how the Fed reacts.
What’s your take? Hiking or holding? And are you more bullish or bearish heading into this CPI?
#CPIWatch

BofA on CPI: "Beyond its implications for next week's Fed decision, we do not view the CPI report as particularly informative about the underlying inflation trend. The upside surprise was driven largely by core services, which increased 0.33% m/m. Within core services, wireless telephone services surged 5.9% m/m, contributing roughly 10bp to core CPI. The increase likely reflects AT&T's retirement of certain unlimited plans and higher administrative fees, which should prove to be a one-off. In addition, airfares and lodging away from home, two historically volatile categories, contributed a combined 8bp to core CPI. Airfares in particular may have been boosted by higher oil prices. These effects should prove temporary and largely unwind over coming months."
#CPIWatch #Binance #Write2Earn $LAB $BTC $XAU

#cpiwatch Will CPI Trigger a Rate Hike? I don’t see September as a coin flip anymore. My call is a 25 bp Fed hike.

The reason is simple the Fed still has an inflation problem, but it doesn’t have a jobs crisis.

August CPI climbed 0.4% MoM and 3.4% YoY, with core still running at 0.3%. Then payrolls printed 162,000 against roughly 55,000 expected, while unemployment held at 4.1%.

That changes the balance. Inflation is refusing to cool fast enough, and employment is still holding together. In my view, that gives the Fed room to tighten again rather than wait.

But I’m not shorting gold just because rates may rise.

I’m holding $XAU from around 4,362, with a 1–2 week bullish view. A lot of the hike risk is already being traded. What matters now is whether the Fed sounds finished after September or keeps another hike on the table.

My bullish view breaks if the dollar accelerates higher and the 10-year yield holds above 5%. That would put real pressure back on gold.

The rate decision could create the first move. Warsh’s message could decide the real one.

Gold next: buyers in control, or bears taking over?

$XAU

#CPIWatch #FederalReserve #XAU #GOLD

#cpiwatch Will CPI Trigger a Rate Hike?

Nonfarm payrolls have beaten expectations, showing that the U.S. labor market remains more resilient than many expected. Now, all eyes are turning to CPI. If inflation comes in hotter than forecast, the Fed could face renewed pressure to consider another rate hike or maintain restrictive policy for longer. However, if CPI shows continued cooling, policymakers may prefer to hold rates steady and wait for more data before making a move.

My view is cautiously bearish for risk assets in the short term.if CPI surprises to the upside. Higher yields could pressure growth stocks and increase volatility across equities and crypto. Gold may remain supported if markets become concerned about economic uncertainty, although a stronger dollar could limit its upside.

I’m watching inflation-sensitive sectors, Treasury yields, the dollar, gold, and major U.S. indices closely. My approach is to avoid excessive leverage, scale into positions gradually, and let the data confirm the trend rather than trading purely on speculation.

⚠️Today's news 🗞️ about the CPI index look a little bit like "Dooms Day Prophecy" 💢🗣️🔊

The title basically says :

⛽🛢️Oil is expensive.
The Fed may (most probably will) hike.
$BTC is struggling.
Altcoins are getting crushed.
Even the supposedly bullish Bitcoin golden cross is already failing its first test.

Somehow, I still don't see a reason for panic.

The CPI result was pretty much what was expected overall. Yes, there was a hotter number inside it, and that makes a September hike much more likely.

👀 But look at everything happening at the same time. It is looking like Murphy's Law coming true

👉 "Everything that can go wrong , will Go wrong, all at once" 🤷

It's September, historically one of the worst months for crypto.

We have the ongoing war around Iran and oil;

What feels like a never-ending war in Russia-Ukraine;

The US elections coming up;

The Clarity Act still being pushed around;

Europe getting stricter about crypto;

🌪️and a million little battles,all one after another...

So yes, all the bearish signals are here. At once.

But we also have BTC is still holding around $77K.

We Leo have the US Stocks going up right after the CPI news 📰 .

We have Oil dancing around $100.

Silver and Gold at it's place

And that's what I'm watching. 👀

The Fed will probably hike next week. The question for me is
whether the market has already priced most of that fear in.

If Fed hike will that be some disaster -level event or we already paid the price?

If this turns out to be one hike rather than the beginning of a much bigger tightening cycle, I don't think the reaction has to be as bad as the headlines make it sound.

I'm staying bullish enough to hold my position, but not bullish enough to ignore the risks. Cautious bullish if you will... Crypto has survived worse, we don't brake easily.

What do you think: Fed hike and more pain, or hike already priced in?
#CPIWatch

#CPIWatch
CPI UPDATE: Inflation is still sticky.

U.S. CPI came in at 3.4% YoY in August, while Core CPI reached 2.4%. Monthly CPI rose 0.4%, with gasoline prices jumping 3.9%.
The big question for crypto: will higher inflation keep the Fed hawkish?
If rate-hike expectations increase, $BTC and altcoins could face short-term pressure. But if markets absorb the data and yields cool, crypto could recover.
What do you think? More pressure on BTC
BTC ignores CPI and rallies
#btc走勢 #CPIInsights #CryptoNewss #Fed

🚨 One CPI report could change the market’s next move.
CPI always gets my attention because inflation data can quickly change expectations around interest rates.
If inflation comes in hotter than expected, the central bank may have less reason to cut rates. That could keep pressure on risk assets, including crypto.
But I don’t think one number tells the whole story. I want to see the actual CPI reading, $XAUT compare it with expectations, and then watch how the market reacts.
For me, the real question is simple: is inflation cooling enough for a softer rate path, or will this CPI give traders another reason to expect rates to stay higher?

#CPIWatch

$XAUT

NFP crushed it. CPI just ran hot. Fed’s next move feels locked in.

August payrolls came in at +162k vs the ~56k expected—solid beat, unemployment stuck at 4.1%. Then core CPI printed 0.3% m/m (vs 0.2% consensus). Markets swung hard: odds of a 25 bp hike at the Sept 15-16 FOMC jumped to the high 80s / near 90%.

I’m not in the “they’ll hold forever” camp. Labor is still resilient, inflation is not rolling over cleanly, and energy isn’t helping. Holding here starts looking like they are behind the curve. My base case: they hike 25 bps next week. One-and-done is possible, but I wouldn’t bet against a follow-through later if the data stays sticky.

My take: mildly bearish risk assets short-term, constructive on gold.

Higher-for-longer (or higher-again) is not friendly to leveraged growth names or pure beta. I’m lightening some high-beta equity exposure and keeping dry powder. Gold still looks like the cleaner hedge—real rates and geopolitical noise both support it. Sitting on a core gold position and watching for dips to add.

What are you running into the Fed meeting? Stocks, gold, or staying flat? Drop your view + positions.

#CPIWatch $XAU $LSK $NVDAB

#CPIWatch INFLATION IS BACK & SO IS GOLD 🚨

Spot Gold +0.87% | Silver +1.13% 🔥

CPI came HOT at 3.4% YoY (0.4% MoM), Core 0.3% vs 0.2% expected

- Fed panic mode ON, but Gold don't care.
Safe haven szn has officially started. Are you stacked? 👇
#gold #silver #cpi #xauusd #fed #inflation #trading #forex#spotgoldrises0.87%silvergains1.13%