*Gold Market Outlook | 04 June 2026 - SMC View*
*1. Market Structure: Recovery After Liquidity Sweep*
H1 is showing a short-term recovery after price swept sell-side liquidity around 4,436 – 4,443.
Previously, gold failed to hold 4,500 – 4,520. We saw bearish reactions from stacked H1 imbalances, then a push into discount that took out the lows. Now price is reacting from that lower discount area with a short-term bullish CHOCH on H1.
Current price ∼4,480 sits between two zones: the lower reclaim area at 4,460 and upper resistance/FVG at 4,497 – 4,500. Market structure is neutral until one side breaks.
*2. SMC Trading Scenarios*
*Scenario 1: Buy From Reclaim / Discount - Primary Bias*
- *Entry*: 4,461 – 4,464
- *Trigger*: M5 bullish CHOCH + hold above 4,460
- *Why*: Lower liquidity swept at 4,436. Current swing low still holding. Reclaim zone protected = demand likely still active
- *Note*: This is a reaction trade, not a full trend reversal yet. Only valid while 4,460 holds
*Scenario 2: Sell The Retest*
- *Entry*: 4,497 – 4,500
- *Trigger*: M5 bearish rejection + bearish CHOCH from resistance
- *Why*: Retest of broken intraday structure + bearish FVG nearby. H1 still under stronger supply at 4,515 – 4,525
- *Note*: If 4,500 rejects, this whole move could just be a pullback before sellers return
*Scenario 3: Sell Breakdown*
- *Entry*: 4,436 – 4,439
- *Trigger*: Strong M15/H1 close below 4,436 + retest from underneath
- *Why*: Bullish recovery fails if protected swing low breaks. Opens path to 4,420 – 4,425 and lower
- *Note*: Bearish continuation only valid on a clean break + hold below base
*3. Session Plan*
Right now gold is range-bound between 4,460 support and 4,500 resistance.
*Rule*: Don’t trade the middle of the range.
- *Bullish case*: Wait for price to hold 4,460 + give M5 confirmation, then target 4,500 → 4,520
- *Bearish case*: Wait for rejection at 4,500 or break + retest below 4,436, then look for continuation down
*Key Reminder*
#GOLD $XAU