$BTC โ The Golden Cross and a question about $100K
People often say that the golden cross has twice given Bitcoin +300%. Letโs break down the numbers.
In fact, strong results after the golden cross were:
โข February 18, 2020 โ +412% over one year
โข May 21, 2020 โ +312% over one year
These two crosses were only 93 days apart, so they partially overlap. Earlier crosses (2015) showed noticeably more modest results (+124โ131%).
Looking at statistics since 2012:
โข Average return after the golden cross over 90 days: about +15.9%
โข Simple hold over the same period: +35.8%
Since 2017, the picture is slightly better for the signal (+25.3% versus +21.7% for holding), but the sample size is small.
An important point:
Of the 11 recorded golden crosses since 2012, eight closed in the black within 90 days. This doesnโt look like a strong statistical advantageโmore like a coin toss with a small edge.
**Conclusion:**
The golden cross by itself doesnโt provide a reliable answer to whether Bitcoin will reach $100K. There are too few historical episodes to draw that kind of conclusion (only 9โ11 cases).
What do you think? Write in the comments.
#BTC #Bitcoin #GoldenCross