Galaxy Research (in an Alex Thorn note published on 10/26) spells it out: the bear market of
$BTC ended with the June 30 low. The chart shows the central argument, using Binance weekly candles.
What the data confirms: BTC closed below its 50-week moving average for 44 consecutive weeks, from mid-November 2025 to mid-September 2026. The recovery began in the week ending 09/20 ($81,178), and there have now been six consecutive weekly closes above it. The cycle low on Binance: $57,800, in the week of 06/29. This morning at 07:43 UTC, BTC is at $80,935, up 40% from that low, but still 36% below the record of $126,200 set on 10/06/2025.
Galaxy’s other arguments: since 2011, there have been four recoveries above this moving average after spending 20 weeks or more below it, and none was followed by a weekly close more than 8.4% below the recovery level within a year. Coins dormant for 5 years or more are moving at a rate of about 34,000 BTC per month in 2026, versus 67,000 in 2024. US spot ETFs have added 87,000 BTC since June, and another $176M on Tuesday 10/27, according to Farside (IBIT $151.5M).
Keep in mind: Galaxy discloses that it holds BTC, and the margin remains thin. The 50-week moving average is around $76,100 according to my Binance calculation ($76,540 at Galaxy), about 6% below the price.
My take: the signal is real, but it hasn’t produced a trend yet; weekly closes have been declining since $86,530 in late September. The Fed decides tonight at 18:00 UTC.
- If BTC closes a day above $82,500 (the threshold cited by CoinDesk), the recovery gains momentum.
- A weekly close below ~$76,500 that isn’t recovered within a month would invalidate the thesis, by Galaxy’s own admission.
Do you use the 50-week moving average as a cycle signal, or is it too slow for decision-making?
#Bitcoin #Galaxy