#fedoctoberratehikeoddsfallto17% ๐จ FED OCTOBER RATE HIKE ODDS COLLAPSE TO 17%
Markets just made a major macro U-turn.
After Septemberโs weak U.S. jobs report, the probability of another Fed rate hike in October dropped to roughly 17%, while markets now heavily favor no change. Just days earlier, hike expectations had been much higher.
Why did expectations flip so fast?
๐บ๐ธ September payrolls: +29,000
๐ July & August revised down by 60,000 combined
๐ฅ Unemployment: 4.2%
๐ต Wage growth: just +0.1% MoM
The labor market is clearly losing momentum.
Why crypto traders should care ๐
๐ข Bullish case:
Fewer rate hikes โ potentially lower yields โ easier financial conditions โ more appetite for risk assets like Bitcoin and altcoins.
๐ด Risk case:
Weak jobs can also signal a slowing economy. If recession fears rise, traders may move away from risk instead of buying it.
My view:
This is a positive liquidity signal for crypto, but I want price confirmation before calling it a breakout.
Iโm watching:
โ
BTC reaction at resistance
โ
Treasury yields
โ
Dollar strength
โ
Volume on the next breakout
โ
Oct. 27โ28 FOMC meeting
The Fedโs next policy meeting is scheduled for October 27โ28.
Does a 17% hike probability send BTC higher โ or is the weak economy the bigger story? ๐
$BTC $ETH $SOL #Fed #bitcoin #crypto #Macro