Price target: $43; current price: $79.84
Mizuho cut Circle’s price target to $43 on Monday, maintaining its Underperform rating
The stock initially fell 7% that day, with the price target implying another 46% downside from the current price
The reason is a new one: it’s not that stablecoins are failing—it’s that AI assistants are coming for their business
Mizuho’s simulations found that AI assistants steer users asking “Where should I put my money?”
away from USDC and toward bank accounts with deposit insurance and higher yields
Even if users insist on staying in crypto, assistants are more likely to recommend other platforms
The numbers aren’t small: USDC’s market cap could shrink by $4–9 billion
Reserve income could fall 10%–20% over the medium term, or by as much as 18% in a faster scenario
The 2027 forecast for USDC in circulation was cut from $108 billion to $101 billion
The contrast: USDC settled more than $36 trillion on-chain in the first half of this year
accounting for 77% of global stablecoin transaction volume, up from just 60% a year ago
JPMorgan just said the stablecoin market is up 42% this year, while USDC rose from $61.5 billion to $73.7 billion in the third quarter
My take: the threat isn’t a competitor—it’s that the gateway has changed
Users ask AI, not exchanges. Circle sells “trust”; AI sells “answers”
What could invalidate this view: USDC in circulation climbing back above $108 billion, or Circle announcing a partnership with an AI assistant that gets implemented
Which side are you on: will AI assistants take stablecoins’ business, or is this just Wall Street’s latest story?
$CRCL $USDC $COIN #Circle #Stablecoins
This is not investment advice. DYOR; trading involves risk.