#Trump'sIranAttackDelayed 🇺🇦 What will happen if Iran starts collecting Bitcoin tribute in the Strait of Hormuz: a brief analysis
Imagine a scenario: Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz (through which 20-30% of the world's oil passes) and demands $2 million in BTC from each ship. Here is our express analysis of how this will reshape the world order👇
💸 How much will they earn? About 130 ships pass through the strait per day. If everyone obediently pays, Tehran will collect $260 million daily. That's almost $95 billion per year. To put it in perspective: this is a quarter of Iran's entire GDP and 10 times more than their current annual military budget.
🚀 What will they buy with it? ➡️The scenario is fantastic : If this money were poured into the economy, Iran could build its "Dubai". But due to sanctions, it will not be possible to legally buy technology. Inflation of such funds within the country will simply provoke fierce hyperinflation. ➡️ The scenario is real : The money will go to the shadow market. Iran will be able to stamp 100-200 thousand "Shaheeds" per year (no air defense in the world will shoot down that many). They will buy intercontinental missile technologies from the DPRK, and the budgets of their proxies (HAMAS, Houthis, Hezbollah) will increase dozens of times, turning them into regular armies.
➡️ Global impact on the planet Shipping giants will be forced to buy up Bitcoin at any price, which will send its rate into space. But at the same time, the world will be divided: these coins will become "toxic", and the West will severely block crypto markets.
🇺🇸 The main mistake of the USA To allow such a situation even for a month is a fatal mistake for Washington. Time is against the West in this scenario: every day brings Iran resources that exponentially strengthen its military. If the US does not use the Fifth Fleet to immediately forcefully unblock the strait, it will lose control of global security, and the world will gain an invincible monster with an unlimited crypto budget. #oil #iran $BZ
The biggest oil tanker owners are bracing for a sharp drop in freight rates if the US and Iran agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively blocked since the start of the Iran war.
The closure of the strait, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil supplies normally pass, has brought record profits to the industry. In the first quarter, they rose to $36 billion, compared with the previous quarterly record of $26 billion in 2022, according to Clarksons.
The virtual closure of Hormuz has left more than 160 oil tankers blocked in the Persian Gulf, limiting the supply of ships and raising shipping rates worldwide. In the first weeks of the conflict, the average daily cost of chartering a tanker reached $162,992, and for the largest vessels, capable of transporting about 2 million barrels of oil, the rate soared to $386,685. In recent weeks, rates for large tankers have fallen to $55,000-95,000 per day in anticipation of the opening of the strait, but are still above the average level of recent years of $30,000-40,000. At the same time, owners have already directed some of the excess profits to order new vessels, which has increased the risk of a new boom and bust cycle in the market. #Hormuz #oil #iran #Trump'sIranAttackDelayed
🚨Bitcoin ETFs just posted their 4th straight week of net outflows. Last week saw $1.7B leave the ETFs, marking the largest weekly outflow in over a year.
LATEST: 🤫🤫🤫 💰 Strategy CEO Phong Le admits he initially wanted to put only 5-10% of the company's balance sheet into Bitcoin while Saylor pushed to “go all in,” conceding "I was wrong" and "Mike was right." #strategy #BTC $BTC
Reached, and industry leaders and analysts are warning of the possibility of another oil shock in the coming weeks, one strong enough to destabilize financial markets as a whole.
“We are approaching unprecedented lows in inventory levels. I mean really low. It’s debatable whether those lows will be reached in two or three weeks. But once we get there, prices will go up dramatically,” said Neil Chapman, a senior vice president at Exxon Mobil.
Chapman said that if inventory levels fall significantly, the price of fixed-price Brent crude, which is used to price more than 60% of the global oil market, could rise to $150 or $160 a barrel.
Crude oil stocks and the release of funds from the strategic reserve have helped to keep oil prices under control for four months while the war with Iran has disrupted supplies to much of the world. Oil futures are trading below $100 a barrel, even though the strait remains effectively closed.
For days, US President Donald Trump has said a deal to reopen the strait is imminent. But that remains elusive, and warnings from the oil industry have become increasingly harsh.
If the drawdown continues at the current pace, global oil inventories could reach critical lows just as summer demand for the fuel peaks, Toril Bossoni, head of the International Energy Agency’s petroleum industry and markets division, said on Tuesday.
“Once those (reserves) are depleted, prices will have to do most of the work of the adjustment themselves. “This means either consumers will pay more or demand will be destroyed,” said Mehmet Beceren, vice president and senior market strategist at Rosenberg Research, adding that the tipping point could be reached by the end of June.
“Oil prices are likely to rise rapidly in the second half of June” unless production in the Strait of Hormuz returns to pre-conflict levels, JPMorgan’s Data Assets and Alpha group predicted, citing the bank’s research. #oil #iran #US #Hormuz #IranWarnsOfHormuzStraitClosure $BZ
JUST IN: 💰 Forward Industries, the largest Solana treasury company, moved 455,784 $SOL worth $31.87M to Coinbase Prime, sparking fears of a possible sale.
The company now sits on ~$1.13B unrealized loss from its 6.81 million SOL holdings. #solana #sol #coinbase
A critical vulnerability was found in the Zcash network that allowed an unlimited number of fake ZEC to be printed unnoticed.
The bug existed since May 2022 and was discovered using the Opus 4.8 AI model — more info.
After the disclosure, ZEC collapsed by more than 30%. Imagine, the bug allowed the creation of an unlimited number of fake ZEC for two whole years, which were indistinguishable from the real ones. #zec #ZECUSDT
ADA holders can feel sorry for themselves 🥲 Cardano CEO said he would take a temporary leave of absence and “be back soon.” The market reacted negatively: ADA fell by about 18%, dropping to $0.188. And in general, the project needs to think about something, because the rate is now at 2020 levels, and there is still a long way to go. Especially since ADA is still in the top 14. #ADA $ADA
The US House of Representatives has approved a bill on aid to Ukraine and new sanctions against the russian federation
The document was voted for by 226 congressmen, against 195, Reuters reports. The document was supported by 18 Republicans and one independent deputy, along with Democrats.
The bill provides for more than $1 billion in aid to Ukraine, up to $8 billion in loans, as well as new sanctions against the russian financial, oil and mining sectors.
Ukrainian Ambassador to the US Olga Stefanishyna called the vote an important step that demonstrates the preservation of bipartisan support for Ukraine.
However, the future of the bill remains uncertain: it still needs to be considered by the Senate, and if adopted, US President Donald Trump may veto it, Reuters notes. #US #ukraine #oil #russia $BZ