VINEVIDIVICI

Genius Sports (GENI) stock is getting a fresh vote of confidence from Wall Street on Friday after JPMorgan initiated coverage with an 'Overweight' rating and an $8 price target, implying roughly 40% upside potential from Thursday’s close.
The call comes after a steep selloff in GENI stock this year, with the sports data and technology company positioning itself to benefit from the fast-growing prediction markets ecosystem now.
JPMorgan Sees Attractive Risk/Reward
JPMorgan analyst Samuel Nielsen said the stock's risk/reward looks positive following a 47% year-to-date decline, with Genius offering what JPMorgan called a 'scarce combo' of diversified above-market growth, improving profitability and an attractive valuation, according to The Fly.
GENI stock was up about 3% in premarket trading Friday morning at the time of writing, after closing Thursday at $5.80.
Prediction Markets Could Add Another Growth Layer
JPMorgan said Genius has 'optionality' from prediction markets that is not included in current analyst estimates, according to The Fly. The firm also pointed to the gap between Wall Street expectations and Genius Sports’ own targets. According to Investing.com, fiscal 2028 Street estimates are about 4% below Genius Sports' own targets
Genius has expanded its business into prediction markets through official sports-data, media and integrity services. On Aug. 5, the company announced a partnership with Kalshi under which Genius would provide official sports data, marketing, media and integrity services. The agreement covers real-time data across Kalshi's soccer portfolio, including the English Premier League, Serie A, Liga MX and other competitions.
Prediction.com Adds A Consumer Platform
On Sept. 17, Genius Sports-owned Legend launched Prediction.com, a consumer platform for discovering prediction markets and comparing equivalent event contracts across multiple platforms.
According to Genius, Prediction.com combines live sports data with prediction-market pricing and allows users to track changing probabilities and market information as events unfold. The company said the platform builds on Legend's existing consumer and comparison technology.
Q2 Results Show Revenue And EBITDA Growth
Genius Sports’ latest quarterly results showed continued growth in revenue and adjusted EBITDA. For the second quarter ended June 30, the company reported $195.5 million in revenue, up 64.7% from $118.7 million a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA rose 54% to $52.6 million, compared with $34.2 million in the prior-year quarter
The company reported second-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $52.6 million versus its $45 million guidance, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 26.9%. Genius said the margin reflected early synergies from the Legend acquisition, strong execution across the combined Media business and an incremental contribution from prediction markets.
Genius also raised its full-year 2026 guidance. The company now expects revenue of $1.005 billion-$1.025 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $285 million-$295 million, compared with its previous guidance of $990 million-$1.01 billion in revenue and $270 million-$280 million in adjusted EBITDA. The new outlook implies an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 28.6% at the midpoint, versus about 27.5% previously.
Retail View On GENI
Retail sentiment on Stocktwits for GENI turned 'neutral’' over the past 24 hours, though message volume was 'high’.
GENI stock has dropped over 46% year-to-date.
$GENI.US
#EBITDA #JPMorgan #prediction

Bitcoin's
BTC$84,629.56
recent surge has some traders liquidating the coins to take profits on their holdings. But the pace of this operation is far slower than at prior market peaks, a positive sign for the market.
BTC has rallied by 44% to nearly $85,000 this quarter, its best performance since the final three months of 2024, according to CoinDesk data. The strong rise comes after three straight quarters of red ink
Naturally, some are taking profits, as evidenced by the net realized profit/loss metric. It records the dollar gains locked in when coins actually move on-chain at a price above the last price at which they changed hands.
Analysts treat that prior transfer as a cost basis: if a coin bought or last spent at $40,000 is later sent or sold at $84,000, the $44,000 difference is booked as realized profit.
Investors have recently realized $2.4 billion in profits after the price surge, according to data tracked by Bitfinex.
"BTC holders just realised $2.4bn in profits. At prior market tops, daily realized profits ran between $7bn and $10bn," Bitfinex said on X.
In the meantime, ETFs continue to attract money and have now registered a net inflow of $2.84 billion in six days. That's more than profits realized by holders. Further, ETFs are now up nearly $800 million in net inflows for the year.
Ether too is giving bullish signals. According to Bitfinex, around 410,000 ETH has come off exchanges in a month, while U.S. spot ether ETFs have attracted $680 million in investor money across four sessions. That is painting a bullish picture for the near term
As of this writing, bitcoin, ether and other majors did not show any signs of weakness in the wake of the $452 million Bitget hack.
In traditional markets, rallies in the Dollar Index and Treasury yields appear to have stalled for now, a relief for risk assets. However, oil volatility stays high amid confusing headlines related to the Iran war. Stay alert!
#Bitget #BitcoinETFs #ETHETFsApproved $BTC

British stocks remained unchanged on Thursday as persistent Middle East tensions kept oil above $103 a barrel while surging U.S. Treasury yields continued to weigh on risk appetite across Europe
The FTSE 100 was up 0.02%, as of 03:22 ET (07:22 GMT). Germany’s DAX dropped 0.22% and France’s CAC 40 slipped 0.28%. Sterling held near flat at $1.3245, up 0.03%.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield held near its highest level since 2007, as stronger-than-expected business activity data fuelled bets that interest rates will stay elevated for longer.
EU leaders on Thursday morning welcomed Pakistan’s mediation role in the U.S.-Iran conflict, with European Council President Antonio Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen saying in separate posts on X they "thanked the prime minister for his initiative to mediate."
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council secretary Mohsen Rezaei said Tehran had relayed a five-day deadline for U.S. compliance, including lifting a naval blockade and unfreezing Iranian assets, through Qatari and Pakistani mediators.
Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian, addressing the UN General Assembly on Wednesday, said Tehran was "ready for dialogue and diplomacy … without accepting the language of force," one day after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened annihilation from the same podium.
The two sides held their first in-person talks in months via Qatari intermediaries on the UNGA sidelines.
Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained well below average, with 10 commodity ships transiting on Wednesday against a 10-day moving average of approximately 17, preliminary Reuters shipping data showed.
U.S. aviation sanctions against Iran took full effect Wednesday, eliminating most Iranian flights to Turkey, the UAE and China, with Oman, Azerbaijan and Georgia also barring Iranian carriers.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the pressure campaign sought one of three outcomes: internal regime fracture, a popular uprising, or Iran agreeing to and honouring a deal.
Brent crude was up 0.15% at $103.17, while WTI rose 0.10% to $92.22. Gold futures for December settled at $4,318.17, down 0.01%, while spot gold fell 0.10% to $4,283.
UK round up
Halma raises FY2027 margin outlook on strong first half and portfolio gains
CVS Group revenue rises as Australia expansion and UK acquisition plans advance
Mitchells & Butlers sees fourth quarter sales growth and easing cost pressures
Raspberry Pi raises EBITDA outlook after first half revenue surges 90%
$XAU
#CAC
$DAX.ETF
#MAB

AppLovin (APP) shares dropped on Wednesday morning after Edgewater Research said the mobile advertising platform’s market-share expansion has effectively stalled, overshadowing bullish client-growth data from Citi earlier this week.
APP stock fell around 6% in morning trade and was among the top trending tickers on Stocktwits at the time of writing.
The sharp move comes just two days after Citi said AppLovin’s global e-commerce client base reached 13,105 through Sept. 18, up 5.1% from the prior week. According to TheFly, Citi described the growth as the fastest weekly expansion in five months and maintained a ‘Buy’ rating with a $600 price target.
Edgewater Flags AppLovin Growth Ceiling
In a note to investors cited by Investing.com, Edgewater analyst Joe Wittine offered a more cautious view Wednesday following fresh channel checks. He expects AppLovin’s fourth-quarter revenue to grow just 8% to 9% sequentially, suggesting growth could flatten after several quarters of rapid expansion.
Wittine said AppLovin’s share of wallet and share of voice are no longer consistently increasing from already industry-leading levels. “This is primarily the inevitable result of MAX’s share reaching a functional ceiling,” Wittine said, adding that competition is also increasingly compressing AppLovin’s net revenue spreads.
MAX is AppLovin’s core advertising network, which aggregates in-app advertising supply across mobile gaming and other applications.
How Is Retail Feeling About APP Stock?
Retail sentiment on Stocktwits around Applovin improved to ‘bullish’ from ‘neutral’ territory over the past day.
Some retail investors viewed the pullback as a potential dip-buying opportunity, while others focused on the longer-term growth question raised by Edgewater.
APP stock continued to trade near its 52-week low of around $297. The shares have fallen more than 50% this year.
$APP
#QQQM
$XLC.ETF
#AIQ

Shares of Strive (ASST) edged lower in the morning on Wednesday, amid broader market weakness, after CEO Matt Cole said tokenized stocks will not make Bitcoin (BTC) treasury companies obsolete.
Matt Cole explained on Bloomberg that the same is true of any company. "Why would you want to own dollars when you can own a company that tries to take dollars and earns more dollars?" he said.
Cole added that when people buy shares in digital asset treasuries, they end up with more Bitcoin than they could hold on their own. This will not change when the asset moves on-chain. “I think the question becomes: Do you trust the management team to actually deliver you more dollars if you're a normal company? More Bitcoin if you're a Bitcoin company?” Coles said, adding that tokenization cannot combat “a premium.”
A Bitcoin treasury company works the same way, Cole said. It takes in capital, buys Bitcoin, and tries to grow the Bitcoin behind each share.
'It Never Broke'
Cole said the digital asset treasury model held up through the bear market. Strive “never sold a single Bitcoin” and kept buying throughout, he said, adding that Strategy (MSTR) was also a net buyer over the period.
Strive has followed Strategy's playbook, raised capital through its Variable-Rate Series A Perpetual Preferred Stock (SATA) and used the proceeds to buy Bitcoin. Its holdings now stand above 26,000 BTC, and Strive falls under the top 10 public Bitcoin treasury companies, according to data from BitcoinTreasuries.net
Cole noted that timing and structure went wrong elsewhere. He said a wave of treasury companies launched “straight into the bear market” last year, and “some of them have bad debt terms.” Not all will succeed, he said, though he expected some of them to “surprise people.”
The Flywheel
Cole said SATA pays a 13% yield, distributed daily. If Bitcoin rises more than 13% a year, Strive structurally outperforms it, he said. That is what happened in 2026, according to Cole, with Strive returning over 100% while Bitcoin was roughly flat.
That math depended on Bitcoin. The token posted its strongest August since 2017 and hit an eight-month high of over $86,000 on Tuesday
Bitcoin’s price fell 2% over the past 24 hours, trading at around $84,600. The apex cryptocurrency remains over 33% below its all-time high.
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around BTC remained in the ‘bullish’ zone, while chatter stayed at ‘normal’ levels over the past day.
ASST stock was down over 1% in morning trade. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around ASST remained in the ‘bullish’ zone, accompanied by ‘high’ chatter levels over the past day.
The shares have gained over 50% in the past month and almost 94% year-to-date.
$BTC $ASST.US
$MSTR
#iwn #ASSX

Mizuho Securities analyst Vijay Rakesh presented a list of top favorites in the semiconductor sector for 2026. The list includes Nvidia, Broadcom and Lumentum Holdings, a company that supplies optical solutions for data centers, which is little known to a wide range of investors, MarketWatch writes. Lumentum's shares have quadrupled over the past year, outperforming both Nvidia and Broadcom.
What are Mizuho's arguments
The analyst noted that companies that make optical components for data centers, such as Lumentum, have room for serious growth as AI-focused data centers switch from copper to fiber optic connections for the sake of increased bandwidth. According to Rakesh, Lumentum's potential remains significant, especially amid demand from Google Cloud Platform and Amazon, . The vendor's share price has jumped 316.5% over the past year. 13 of 23 analysts tracking the stock recommend buying it, according to MarketWatch.
Nvidia and Broadcom, according to Mizuho estimates, will continue to grow due to increased capital expenditures of hyperscalers: in 2026, spending may jump by 32% - up to $540 billion. Additional drivers will be the widespread adoption of AI in the corporate environment and the improvement of neural network models, says the analyst.
Wall Street will be watching the new models closely to confirm that AI's laws of scaling, according to which systems improve as data and resources grow, still work, MarketWatch notes. OpenAI is expected to unveil its next model as early as the first quarter, and it will likely be one of the first models trained on Nvidia's new Blackwell platform, the publication emphasizes.
According to Rakesh, both companies have seen their products increase in energy efficiency by more than 50% from generation to generation, while the total cost of ownership of their AI processors has been steadily decreasing. This makes their solutions more attractive to enterprise customers, the analyst said.
In addition, he noted that he remains positive on Lam Research, which supplies semiconductor manufacturing equipment, as a "key market-leading player."
Market view
Mizuho analyst named AI gas pedal chips and equipment for their production, optical components, as well as memory chips as the most promising areas in the semiconductor sector, but he is cautious about the segments related to electric vehicles and automotive electronics, power semiconductors and analog chips, as well as the markets of personal computers and smartphones, CNBC reports .
"We see the potential for a strong first half of fiscal 2026 as spending on artificial intelligence, investment in chip manufacturing equipment and the growth cycle in the memory market are expected to remain robust. This will support capacity expansion at the largest and mid-sized cloud providers, as well as enterprise and government customers deploying servers for artificial intelligence," the analyst predicted. However, he does not rule out difficulties in the second half of the year and warns of the risk of increased volatility due to the launch of new products, including the Vera Rubin AI platform from Nvidia and solutions from AMD, as well as the possible impact of the midterm elections in the U.S. and in case of a slower reduction in interest rates by the Federal Reserve.
#NVIDIA
#ArtificialInteligence #broadcom