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Airstrikes resulting in the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei emphasize the significance of adhering to the Constitution's war-powers regulations. Bloomberg posted on X, highlighting the critical nature of these rules in maintaining checks and balances in military engagements. The incident serves as a reminder of the constitutional framework designed to prevent unilateral military actions without proper authorization. The discussion around war-powers rules is crucial in ensuring that military decisions are made with due consideration and oversight.

Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience, maintaining stability despite geopolitical tensions in Iran. According to NS3.AI, analysts have identified $45,000 as a significant bearish target, though they consider the likelihood of the Iran conflict escalating into a broader war to be low. This week, market dynamics are influenced by oil price volatility, U.S. inflation data, and potential changes in Bitcoin ETF fund flows.

Iran has announced that its air defense systems have successfully shot down three U.S. fighter jets that allegedly invaded its airspace. According to Jin10, the incident marks a significant escalation in tensions between the two nations. The Iranian military stated that the aircraft were detected and targeted as they entered Iranian territory, emphasizing its commitment to defending national sovereignty. The U.S. government has yet to confirm or respond to these claims. This development could further strain diplomatic relations and impact regional stability.

火星财经消息，3 月 2 日，随着美伊冲突升级，传统金融市场周末休市之际，加密衍生品平台 Hyperliquid 成为投资者对冲大宗商品风险的核心场所。 据彭博社报道，在 2 月 28 日冲突爆发前后，大量加密交易员涌入 Hyperliquid，交易与原油、黄金等挂钩的永续合约，以应对地缘政治冲击。由于永续合约无到期日且支持 24/7 连续交易，在传统市场关闭期间成为唯一可用的实时对冲工具。 此前，投资机构高管 Avi Felman 曾预判，「Hyperliquid 对基金经理而言将变得不可或缺，因为其 24/7 不停盘。」在本轮中东危机中，这一判断得到验证——当全球主流商品与外汇市场休市时，加密期货市场承担起价格发现与风险对冲功能。 分析认为，此类「战时流动性测试」正在强化加密衍生品市场在全球宏观风险体系中的角色定位。

火星财经消息，3 月 2 日，周一开盘，股指期货价格总体呈下跌态势，而原油和黄金价格则有所上涨，但目前并未出现恐慌情绪。机构分析师马克·库德莫尔所指出，大多数非能源类商品的变动幅度相对较小，而且几乎所有商品的价格都已从开盘时的极端水平有所回落。 油价涨幅从开盘的逾 13% 收窄至 8%，部分获利回吐的情况已经开始出现。黄金和白银的价格均上涨了超过 1%，但考虑到近期市场的波动情况，这个涨幅似乎已经算是比较适中的了。总而言之，虽然目前下定结论还为时尚早，但市场目前尚未出现恐慌情绪。 然而，如果认为这能作为今天整个交易时段的准确指引，那就太天真了。因为随着亚洲各地现货市场陆续开盘，我们可能会遭遇更大规模的抛售，尤其是如果「内存」交易出现问题的话（「内存」交易年内迄今已将韩国 KOSPI 指数推升 50%）(金十)

火星财经消息，据金十报道，上周末，由于全球传统金融市场休市，大批资金转而涌入 Polymarket 和 Kalshi 等预测市场以及 Hyperliquid 等去中心化交易所。投资者试图通过这些平台，对美以两国袭击伊朗的后续影响进行风险对冲或投机押注。然而，这场资本狂欢很快演变成了一场舆论风暴。 上周六，社交平台 X 上开始涌现大量质疑声，指控部分内部人士利用对军事打击的提前知情权，在预测市场上大肆牟利。面对抨击，白宫发言人在回应媒体时辩称，“指导特朗普政府决策的唯一特殊利益，就是美国人民的最大利益。”事实上，针对利用国际冲突进行内幕押注的打击行动在全球部分地区已经展开。 面对指责，Kalshi 首席执行官 Tarek Mansour 辩护称，将退还用户参与上述争议市场产生的所有手续费，而在哈梅内伊身亡前建立的头寸，将按最后交易价格进行强制结算。然而，这一“强平”决定并未平息风波，许多用户反而在社交平台上抱怨自己被平台摆了一道。

Trump Media Group is considering a strategic move to spin off its Truth Social platform into a publicly traded company through a merger with Texas Ventures Acquisition III. According to NS3.AI, the newly formed entity, SpinCo, would be listed on the stock exchange, with shares distributed to Trump Media shareholders. This initiative is part of Trump Media's broader strategy to enhance its cryptocurrency business ambitions.

X, previously known as Twitter, has revised its advertising policies to permit cryptocurrency and gambling promotions, provided they adhere to the new Paid Partnership framework. According to NS3.AI, this policy shift allows influencers to legally monetize crypto content, but they must clearly disclose sponsored posts to comply with regulatory standards like those set by the FTC. The crypto community has reacted with mixed feelings; some are optimistic about the opportunities this presents, while others express concerns about enforcement challenges and the possibility of future restrictions on Crypto Twitter.

According to PANews, NYDIG's Head of Research, Greg Cipolaro, suggests that Bitcoin could benefit if artificial intelligence disrupts the labor market or causes volatility leading central banks to ease monetary policy. He highlights AI as a 'general-purpose technology,' indicating its influence on employment and economic growth could extend to Bitcoin. Cipolaro notes that if AI-driven growth is accompanied by liquidity expansion and controlled real interest rates, it would support Bitcoin. Conversely, if AI increases real yields and tightens policy, Bitcoin might face pressure. Should AI cause labor disruptions and result in monetary easing, the liquidity injection would favor Bitcoin. While acknowledging the challenges of this transition, Cipolaro anticipates AI will follow the 'historical pattern' of technological development, integrating rather than eliminating.

According to NS3.AI, the latest WeeklyCryptoKickoff report from 10xResearch indicates that the crypto market has seen a significant clearing of positions, with funding rates dropping to low levels and implied volatility resetting. Despite some positive ETF flows and a decrease in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield below 4%, the overall liquidity in the crypto market remains weak. The report provides an analysis of Bitcoin and Ethereum derivatives, market sentiment, and capital flows, while also anticipating key trading ranges and events in the coming weeks.

Crypto investment products have seen outflows for five consecutive weeks, totaling $4 billion. According to NS3.AI, this trend is largely driven by U.S. investors reducing their exposure due to regulatory uncertainties. In contrast, Europe and Canada have reported net inflows, reflecting varying regional risk appetites and investment behaviors despite global market pressures. This divergence underscores the impact of political and regulatory environments on institutional crypto allocation across different regions, influencing Bitcoin price dynamics and market participation.

火星财经消息，据市场消息，摩根大通分析师在一份报告中表示，美国加密市场结构立法《CLARITY 法案》可能于年中获批，并成为下半年的积极催化剂。 该法案目前已获众议院推进，参议院仍在讨论中，目前面临稳定币收益问题及政府官员利益冲突两大争议点。分析师指出，若法案通过，将重塑市场结构：提供监管清晰度、结束“通过执法进行监管”、推动代币化并促进机构参与。 分析师列出了八项潜在积极影响，包括减轻主要代币合规负担、支持美国市场创新、解锁二级交易、允许传统银行直接托管数字资产、促进现实世界资产代币化、保护开源开发者、为日常加密支付提供小额交易免税、以及推动机构间代币化存款发展。

Analysts say that shifting US monetary policy could hinge on geopolitical developments in the Middle East, with crypto markets watching for signals from the Federal Reserve. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes argues in a Monday blog post that American presidents have repeatedly engaged in Middle East action, and the Fed has historically responded by cutting rates or expanding the money supply to finance those campaigns. He writes that the longer an administration pursues Iran-focused objectives, the greater the likelihood the Fed will “lower the price and increase the quantity of money” to support those efforts, a pattern he sees echoed in past conflicts. Hayes cites the Gulf War of 1990, the post-9/11 wars, and the 2009 Afghan surge as episodes where monetary easing followed military action. Over the weekend, Israel and the US conducted airstrikes on Iran that killed Ali Khamenei, a development President Donald Trump has pledged to continue.

Key takeaways

The analytically argued link between wartime financing and Fed easing suggests policy pivots could accompany geopolitical shocks, with crypto markets potentially benefiting from increased liquidity.

Historical precursors—Gulf War (1990), the post-9/11 era, and the 2009 Afghan surge—are cited as episodes where rate cuts or aggressive money printing supported wartime aims, according to Hayes.

The weekend strikes on Iran introduced fresh geopolitical risk, intensifying scrutiny of how policy makers balance inflation, growth, and security concerns while markets price in potential easing.

Crypto-market chatter around “World War III” spiked on social media after the latest flare-up, though observers noted that current dynamics are not comparable to peak speculative periods in 2025.

Hayes has floated liquidity tools such as Reserve Management Purchases and other easing measures, signaling how policymakers might adapt if macro risks escalate, a thread that dovetails with ongoing debates about liquidity in crypto markets.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC

Price impact: Positive. The piece frames geopolitical risk and potential Fed easing as supportive for crypto markets, implying upside for BTC if policy shifts materialize.

Market context: The narrative sits at the intersection of macro policy, geopolitics, and crypto liquidity. As risk sentiment shifts with geopolitical headlines, traders monitor whether Fed actions—or lack thereof—will unlock liquidity channels that typically buoy risk assets including digital currencies.

Why it matters

The episode highlights how macro policy and geopolitical trajectories can influence the behavior of crypto markets. If the Federal Reserve were to pivot toward rate cuts or quantitative easing in response to ongoing conflict dynamics, liquidity could expand and risk appetite could rise, creating a more favorable environment for digital assets like Bitcoin. The discussion also underscores the fragility of markets that are sensitive to policy signals; investors may pivot quickly in anticipation of liquidity injections or policy tightening, reinforcing the need for disciplined risk management.

For market participants, the perspective from Hayes — that policy responses to geopolitical frictions can be both reflexive and pro-cyclical for crypto — adds a layer of nuance to how traders interpret price movements. It also draws attention to liquidity tools and central-bank balance-sheet dynamics as structural drivers that could shape the next phase of the crypto cycle. While none of this guarantees a specific price path, it emphasizes that policy and geopolitics remain key variables in the crypto trading playbook.

What to watch next

Federal Reserve communications and any signals about rate cuts or new liquidity programs, including Reserve Management Purchases.

Developments in the Iran-Israel conflict and leadership dynamics in the region, alongside any shifts in geopolitical risk assessments.

Bitcoin price action in response to macro news and policy signals, with attention to test levels around major milestones.

Regulatory and institutional flows that could affect BTC-related products and overall market liquidity.

Sources & verification

BitMEX blog: Arthur Hayes on iOS warfare and monetary policy implications — https://www.bitmex.com/blog/ios-warfare

Cointelegraph coverage: Israel-US airstrikes on Iran and the described leadership developments — https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-recovers-to-68k-following-reported-death-of-iranian-supreme-leader

Kobeissi Letter remark on futures and WW3 framing — https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2028251687572688942

Santiment data on World War III mentions in crypto discourse — https://x.com/santimentfeed/status/2028285118553493784

Jane Street discussion on Bitcoin price narratives — https://magazine.cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price-manipulation-jane-street-bitcoiners-debate-cointelegraph/

Market reaction and key details

The central thread running through this discourse is the tension between geopolitics and macro policy and how that tension spills into crypto markets. Hayes’ framing rests on a historical pattern: wartime actions tend to be financed through monetary easing, which, in turn, broadens liquidity and tends to support assets that thrive on risk-taking. In the current moment, observers watch for any official signal from the Fed that policy might shift toward easing, a move that could catalyze a broader crypto rally if liquidity taps are opened.

Beyond the macro angle, the conversation threads in public commentary include market data points such as marginal moves in stock futures and shifts in energy prices, which can influence risk appetite across asset classes. As noted in related analyses, Bitcoin and other crypto narratives have at times mirrored shifts in traditional markets, but the relationship remains imperfect and highly context-dependent. The social-media chatter around WW3 underscores how fast sentiment can pivot on headlines, even if the underlying price action is more nuanced than headline narratives suggest.

Notably, the discourse extends to liquidity tools and policy mechanisms that could shape the trajectory of crypto markets. Hayes has previously floated ideas like Reserve Management Purchases as a potential tool to soothe markets, and he has linked these constructs to broader money-printing dynamics that could accelerate crypto adoption during periods of policy stress. In parallel, market observers have debated whether large participants and market makers have the capacity to influence price through strategic liquidity provisioning, a theme that has featured in discussions around Jane Street and other firms in analyses like the one titled “Would Bitcoin really be at $200K if not for Jane Street? Trade Secrets.”

As with any geopolitical and macro narrative, investors should command a cautious, context-aware approach. The next few weeks could deliver clarity on the Fed’s stance, the evolution of the conflict in the Middle East, and the way crypto markets weigh fresh liquidity signals against ongoing macro uncertainties. While Hayes’ framework provides a lens to interpret potential policy responses, it is one of many factors driving price discovery in Bitcoin and other digital assets.

This article was originally published as Fed Could Print Money to Back US-Iran Conflict, Hayes Says on Crypto Breaking News – your trusted source for crypto news, Bitcoin news, and blockchain updates.

TLDR:

UAE regulators shut both exchanges for two days to prevent panic selling after missile and drone strikes.

The Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange holds roughly $700 billion in market cap, putting billions at risk of loss.

Polymarket puts the probability of a Strait of Hormuz closure at 48.5%, threatening global oil and LNG supply.

War-risk insurance has jumped 50% and Hapag-Lloyd suspended strait transit, signaling rising market concern.

UAE markets have been ordered closed for Monday and Tuesday following a large-scale missile and drone attack on the country.

The UAE Capital Market Authority directed both the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and the Dubai Financial Market to suspend trading.

This move came after 165 ballistic missiles, 541 drones, and two cruise missiles struck the UAE over 48 hours. Three people died, and 58 others sustained injuries. Fires broke out at the Port of Jebel Ali, and debris hit the Burj Al Arab hotel.

Exchange Closure Signals a Confidence Crisis

The regulator’s decision to halt trading was not due to a holiday or technical failure. It was a direct response to the threat of panic selling on the exchange floor.

The Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange alone carries roughly $700 billion in market capitalization. A single session of fear-driven selling could have erased billions in value within hours.

Analyst Shanaka Anslem Perera noted on X that this marks the first time the Dubai Financial Market has gone dark outside of a pandemic.

The UAE Capital Market Authority has shut both the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and the Dubai Financial Market for Monday and Tuesday.

Not a holiday. Not a technical failure.

The regulator explicitly ordered the closure to prevent panic selling after 165 ballistic missiles,… https://t.co/88VuAffuaW pic.twitter.com/QPz9eMT4Zm

— Shanaka Anslem Perera (@shanaka86) March 1, 2026

He wrote that “financial markets do not operate by military standards,” adding that they run on confidence instead. That confidence took a visible hit when shrapnel killed a civilian and debris landed on a Palm Jumeirah hotel.

Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul index dropped more than 4% on Sunday, while Egyptian markets fell over 5%. UAE regulators chose to avoid a similar outcome by keeping screens off entirely. The move bought time, but the deeper question about investor confidence remains unanswered.

Regional markets had long relied on Gulf stability to attract global capital. That stability is now under direct pressure from ongoing military activity.

Strait of Hormuz Risk Adds to Financial Pressure

Beyond the exchange closures, broader energy market risks are now in focus. Polymarket currently prices the probability of a Strait of Hormuz closure by March 31 at 48.5%.

War-risk insurance has reportedly climbed 50%, and Hapag-Lloyd has suspended vessel transit through the strait. Around 20 million barrels of oil and nearly 20% of global LNG exports move through this narrow waterway daily.

A closure of the strait would push oil prices past $100 per barrel almost immediately. That would drive US consumer price inflation toward 5%, contradicting stated US policy goals on energy costs. The financial ripple effects would extend well beyond the Gulf region.

Iran reportedly targeted the UAE not over a bilateral dispute, but because the country hosts Al Dhafra Air Base. The US security umbrella, long seen as a shield for Gulf commerce, became a target instead. That shift changes how global allocators view risk in the region.

UAE markets are expected to reopen by Wednesday. Whether institutional capital returns at the same pace remains the central question facing Gulf financial centers.

The post UAE Capital Market Authority Orders Exchange Closures as Missile Strikes Threaten Gulf Financial Stability appeared first on Blockonomi.

Money markets have reduced their expectations for interest-rate cuts in the US, UK, and euro area. Bloomberg posted on X that this shift comes as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has driven oil prices upward, heightening concerns about inflation. The geopolitical tensions have prompted investors to reassess the likelihood of monetary policy easing, with the potential for prolonged instability affecting global economic conditions. As oil prices continue to rise, central banks may face increased pressure to address inflationary risks, impacting future interest rate decisions.

Aluminum prices have increased due to fears that key supply routes for producers in the Middle East may be affected by regional conflict. Bloomberg posted on X, highlighting the potential impact on global production, as the Middle East contributes significantly to the world's aluminum output. The uncertainty surrounding the stability of these supply chains has led to heightened market anxiety, influencing commodity prices. Analysts are closely monitoring the situation, as any prolonged disruption could have substantial implications for the aluminum market and related industries.

The Shanghai Composite Index has achieved its highest closing level in a decade, propelled by rising energy, gold, and defense stocks. According to NS3.AI, this surge is attributed to geopolitical tensions surrounding the Iran conflict. Meanwhile, Hong Kong's cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs), including those linked to Bitcoin and Ether, have experienced notable declines. This downturn is occurring amidst pressure on the Hang Seng Index and persistent challenges for Chinese investors in accessing crypto assets.

Beijing's preference for onshore equity markets and the enforcement of capital controls continue to restrict the flow of significant Chinese capital into the cryptocurrency sector. As a result, the likelihood of substantial Chinese investment in crypto assets remains limited in the near future.

 

今日全球金融市场受中东地缘紧张局势主导，美国与以色列对伊朗的军事行动引发油价飙升（布伦特原油一度涨超8%），风险资产普遍承压。加密货币与股市呈现明显币股联动特征，比特币与美股期货同步回落，亚洲股市尤其是港股领跌。

 

市场行情概览

加密市场：总市值约2.37万亿美元，24小时下跌约1.1%。比特币（BTC）围绕66,000-66,700美元区间震荡，最新报约66,566美元，微跌0.99%；以太坊（ETH）报约1,970美元，跌约1-2%。XRP年内已累计下跌26%，表现疲弱。市场恐慌指数显示“极度恐惧”，但部分分析师认为黄金等避险资产走强背景下，比特币相对黄金仍被低估，或存反弹空间。

股市表现：港股恒生指数今日收跌约2.14%，报26,060点附近，较前一交易日下跌570余点，创近期低位。美股期货同步下挫，道指期货跌超600点（约1.3%），纳斯达克期货跌幅更大。日经225、澳洲标普200等亚太指数多数下跌，能源股因油价上涨逆势走强，航空与科技股承压。

币股联动特征明显：加密作为风险资产，与纳斯达克、科技股及港股科技板块高度相关，地缘风险放大抛售压力。

 

地缘政治与宏观影响

伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书拉里贾尼明确表示，伊朗不会与美国进行谈判，指责特朗普“美国优先”已沦为“以色列优先”，并批评其将地区拖入混乱。冲突升级直接推高油价、黄金与白银，同时压制风险偏好。香港金管局前总裁任志刚今日重申“港元其实是美元最大的稳定币”，强调香港持有约2,560亿美元美债，规模远超任何美元稳定币，维持联系汇率制度至关重要。此观点在当前美元强势、地缘动荡背景下，进一步凸显香港作为亚洲最大美元流动性中心的战略定位。

 

香港加密监管利好持续

香港正加速布局数字资产：

香港金管局力争3月发出首批稳定币发行人牌照，汇丰控股行政总裁Georges Elhedery回应称，汇丰“有兴趣参与所有香港创新发展”，并希望在稳定币生态中担当角色。汇丰亚洲及中东联席行政总裁廖宜建补充，稳定币可实现24/7即时支付，香港在数字资产监管框架下，将助力探索代币化存款、区块链债券发行（已参与香港政府可持续债券）及代币化黄金业务。市场预计汇丰与渣打或为首轮获批机构。

香港财政司司长陈茂波表示，未来五年内无计划再次从外汇基金提款，此前提及的1,500亿港元拨转不会成为常规做法，旨在缓解市场对金融稳定性的担忧。

这些进展为香港打造加密枢纽注入强心剂，与任志刚“港元=最大美元稳定币”论断形成呼应。

 

韩国加密政策转向

韩国财政部长Koo Yun-cheol承诺对政府机构处理加密资产的方式进行全面改革。此前警方与税务部门查扣数字资产保管失误暴露监管漏洞，政府将联合金融委员会、金融监督院等机构，对公共机构通过扣押等方式持有的数字资产进行全面检查，并迅速强化安全措施，防止类似事件重演。此举标志韩国从被动应对转向主动规范，或提振机构信心。

 

代币解锁与即将上线动态

今日重点关注Ethena（ENA）解锁：约4,063万枚ENA（价值约420万美元，占已释放供应量的0.53%）于3月2日通过悬崖释放机制解锁，全部归属基金会，短期供应压力有限。

 

3月整体解锁规模庞大，总价值超58亿美元：

Rain（RAIN）3月10日解锁约338百万美元（最大单笔）；

Hyperliquid（HYPE）、RedStone（RED）等3月6日前后亦有解锁；

其他包括SUI、ASTER、JUP等项目，需警惕中大型项目解锁对流动性的潜在影响。

即将上线方面，香港稳定币首批牌照3月落地即为重大“上线”事件，预计将带动相关生态项目与机构产品加速入市。此外，交易所层面持续有新代币上线（如MEXC等平台近期新增小型项目），但无超级重磅主网或Layer2即将在本周上线，市场焦点仍集中在宏观与政策催化。

 

后市展望

短期内，中东冲突持续性与油价走势将是主要变量，若紧张缓和，币股或迎来反弹窗口；反之，避险情绪或继续压制。香港稳定币监管落地、韩国政策改革及3月美联储利率决策等事件，将为加密市场提供结构性机遇。投资者需关注比特币66,000美元支撑位、ETH 1,900美元附近动态，以及解锁项目价格表现。

 

整体而言，今日市场虽波动加剧，但香港加密基础设施建设的长期利好未变，建议理性配置，关注政策落地与地缘进展。数据来源于公开市场与主流媒体报道，投资有风险，入市需谨慎。

Defense stocks are experiencing a notable surge in pre-market trading, with Raytheon Technologies and Lockheed Martin both seeing increases of over 8%. According to Jin10, this upward movement comes amid heightened interest in defense-related equities. Investors are closely monitoring these stocks as geopolitical tensions and defense spending continue to influence market dynamics. The rise in stock prices reflects growing confidence in the sector's potential for sustained growth. Analysts suggest that ongoing developments in defense technology and strategic contracts may further bolster these companies' market positions.

火星财经消息，3 月 2 日，据 行情数据，A 股「三桶油」历史首次收盘集体涨停，中国石油创近 11 年新高，总市值达 2.19 万亿元；中国海油创 2022 年上市以来新高，总市值达 1.88 万亿元；中国石化创 2024 年 10 月以来新高，总市值 8597 亿元。 中东地缘冲突加剧提振原油以及其他大宗商品上涨预期。航运数据显示，霍尔木兹海峡及附近海域超过 200 艘船只抛锚，包含石油与液化气运输船。有油轮在波斯湾沿岸遇袭受损。高盛估计，若霍尔木兹海峡供应全面中断 6 周，油价可能出现每桶 18 美元的风险溢价；若仅 50% 供应中断 1 个月，溢价约 4 美元。多家机构认为，若油价逼近 90 美元/桶，全球通胀与货币政策路径将面临再评估。

At least 131 cities in Iran have been impacted by attacks from the United States and Israel, according to the Red Crescent. The organization reported significant disruptions across these urban areas. According to Jin10, the attacks have led to widespread concern among the local population, affecting daily life and infrastructure. The Red Crescent is actively working to provide aid and support to those affected. The situation remains tense as international observers monitor developments closely.

火星财经消息，据金十报道，美元指数升至 5 周高点 98.339，日内涨幅接近 0.7%

SPDR Gold ETF has experienced a 2.5% increase, reflecting shifts in the precious metals market. According to Jin10, this rise comes as investors react to broader economic indicators and geopolitical developments. The ETF's performance is closely watched by market participants seeking insights into gold's trajectory amid fluctuating global conditions. Analysts suggest that the movement may be influenced by factors such as central bank policies and investor sentiment towards safe-haven assets. As the market continues to evolve, stakeholders are monitoring these trends to gauge future implications for gold investments.

European insurance companies are expected to see their stock prices supported by rising risk premiums, according to a research report by Bruyette & Woods. According to Jin10, analyst William Hawkins noted that the current weakness in stock prices presents a buying opportunity, as the industry's risk-reward ratio is likely to outperform that of the 2010s. Despite the unexpected U.S. attack on Iran over the weekend, Hawkins believes that European insurers' risk management processes should not be caught off guard, given Iran's long-standing status as a sanctioned regime. While underwriting losses may occur, Hawkins suggests that unless there are significant errors in company processes, these losses are unlikely to have a substantial impact on the industry.

火星财经消息，3 月 2 日，日本央行副行长冰见野良三（Ryozo Himino）在周一的最新讲话中，并未就短期内加息释放任何明确信号。受上周末中东爆发冲突的影响，此举进一步强化了金融市场的现有预期——即日本央行决策者在本月的货币政策会议上将选择按兵不动。 在美以对伊朗发动袭击后，全球经济前景变得更加扑朔迷离。冰见野此次的表态暗示，在日本央行 3 月 19 日的政策会议上，加息的可能性已微乎其微。（金十）

Morgan Stanley files for a trust bank charter, aiming to custody crypto directly and lead institutional digital finance.

Digital asset custody under federal oversight opens new revenue, strengthens control, and builds trust with big investors.

Wall Street shifts as crypto moves from experimental to core, and banks like Morgan Stanley race for institutional dominance.

Wall Street faces another transformative shift as Morgan Stanley files for a national trust bank charter to create Morgan Stanley Digital Trust. The move signals serious intent to integrate digital assets directly into its banking operations. 

The firm also seeks to secure federal authority to hold the crypto assets. By doing so, the firm would increase its control over the digital assets and set the stage for future growth in crypto finance. Morgan Stanley acknowledges the fact that clients require secure and regulated crypto services. As such, the firm is likely to join the elite group of firms with federal supervision.

By developing the Morgan Stanley Digital Trust platform, the bank seeks to offer regulated and secure digital asset services to clients. Trust banks operate with federal supervision. Apart from offering secure services to clients, the structure would also help the firm eliminate third-party custodianship.

Hence, the firm gains more operational control and opens additional revenue opportunities through direct crypto custody. Moreover, institutional clients, including hedge funds and high net worth investors, now see a regulated avenue for safe digital asset management.

Institutional Crypto Custody Drives Strategic Growth

Digital asset custody forms the backbone of institutional crypto adoption. Large investors require insured protection, secure storage, and clear regulatory structures. Without trusted custody providers, many corporations hesitate to allocate capital to digital assets. 

Morgan Stanley aims to close this trust gap. Additionally, the firm can attract major asset managers and deepen client relationships. Custody fees provide stable income, while ancillary services like lending or structured crypto products could follow.

Competition also motivates action. Financial institutions like BNY Mellon already expand into digital services, and Morgan Stanley refuses to lag behind. The firm’s move signals that digital assets have moved from experimental offerings to core elements of capital markets. 

However, regulatory approval remains a critical next step. The bank must prove readiness, risk controls, and capital adequacy before onboarding clients at scale.

The post Morgan Stanley Moves to Launch Regulated Crypto Bank appears on Crypto Front News. Visit our website to read more interesting articles about cryptocurrency, blockchain technology, and digital assets.

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作者：Stani.eth

编译：深潮 TechFlow

深潮导读：Aave 创始人亲自写的一份量化投资论文：他把太阳能、数据中心、机器人、核能、太空基础设施的资本支出逐一测算，得出 DeFi 面对的真实市场规模是$100-200T，是全球前十大银行资产管理总规模的 15 倍。论点是否成立另当别论，但这个分析框架本身值得每一个关注 RWA 赛道的人认真读完。

全文如下：

我此前写道，DeFi 已经改善了资本配置问题的供给侧。链上流动性高度流动，可以通过程序化方式转移到风险调整后回报更高的机会上。Aave 已经证明它能够吸收数百亿美元的流动性，这得益于它多年积累的信任，以及它在加密抵押贷款模型上提供的优越成本结构。

这种流动性为目前正在涌现的金融基础原语和使用场景创造了巨大机会。DeFi 的下一次演化应当聚焦于需求侧问题，重新平衡流动性均衡。

我此前也写道，仅太阳能基础设施就可以为 Aave 带来$30-50T 的机会。但这远不是终点，Aave 可以挖掘的未来机会超过$200T。

支撑一切运转的基础设施，为一切提供融资的金融

让一切运转的最底层是基础设施。这一层确保我们的电动汽车有续航里程可以行驶、家里保持温暖和照明、水能正常流动、计算机可以计算，世界保持连接。

从资本配置的角度来看，基础设施被视为安全选择。世界需要能源、水、算力和通信。已建立的基础设施也承载着随时间和规模效益降低的技术风险，随着成熟逐渐从技术机会转变为金融机会。

虽然被视为稳定安全，但新兴基础设施也提供了回报更高的强力配置机会。技术处于成本曲线的早期，风险溢价相应更为丰厚。

基础设施（正确的类型）是金融的优质产品，原因在于它通常涉及需要融资的高额资本支出和低运营支出——这意味着运营成本足够低，债务可以在资产生命周期内得到偿还。从许多角度来看，为未来融资的基础设施是具有现金流的硬资产。

最重要的是，当结构设计正确时，基础设施金融遵循的是 Aave 的贷款模型——针对资产本身进行贷款，而非针对用户的信用，与 Aave 今天的运作方式类似。

机会有多大？

我认为对世界向丰裕转型至关重要的基础设施资产包括：太阳能农场、电池、数据中心和 GPU、电气化交通、机器人、海水淡化、矿产开采、碳捕获、核能，以及太空基础设施等。如果有什么不在这个清单上，不是因为我对它缺乏信心，更多是为了说明这个类别有多广泛。只要一项资产属于"丰裕资产"且不是走向衰亡的基础设施，它大概率是合理的选择。

太阳能和电池：仅太阳能就代表着$15-30T 需要融资的资本支出。按这个规模，太阳能将在 2050 年前取代化石燃料。这在我此前的文章中有详细阐述。

数据中心和 GPU：GPU 和数据中心的累计资本支出在$15-35T 之间，具体取决于 AI 采用率的敏感性。麦肯锡估计仅到 2030 年就需要$6.7T 的资本支出。我一贯的逻辑是：如果你给计算机提供更多算力，它们就会计算更多，承担更复杂的任务。摩尔定律有其局限，但我们正在进入原子级工程和 GPU 的垂直分层，即便这些进步也不会阻止我们建设更多算力。这还未将量子计算纳入考量，后者可能推动计算能力的另一轮分布式扩张。

机器人：人类任务的自动化将成为我们正在转型进入的世界的决定性特征。机器人，无论是专用仓储系统还是用于日常体力任务的人形机器人，都将取代人类劳动，给我们带来更多自由。仅机器人到 2050 年就可能需要$8-35T 的资本支出。

电动车基础设施：交通电气化（电动汽车、铁路、飞机、无人机、充电网络、船舶、港口）正处于从化石基础向电力基础系统大规模转型的前夕。预计到 2050 年资本支出约为$10-25T。自动驾驶本身将确保没有汽车处于闲置状态，它们将全天候为社会服务。

核能：我对核能作为丰裕资产持有一种爱恨交织的情感。它是产生大量能源的稳妥选择。然而，核能与政策深度绑定，这使其难以创新、更难融资。项目往往比预期更昂贵、耗时更长。小型模块化反应堆和更好的政策框架可能改变这一局面。我对 2050 年的资本支出估算较为保守，为$3-8T，受政策制约。

太阳能驱动的海水淡化：海水淡化并不新鲜。它已经存在了数十年，中东国家已经对其高度依赖。它仍然成本较高，但随着规模效益和太阳能的发展，我们将能在世界任何地方获得近乎免费的水。所需资本支出：到 2050 年为$6-12T。

二氧化碳捕获：增长将由政府激励驱动。预计资本支出：到 2050 年为$3-8T。

关键矿产：驱动电气化、机器人及更多领域的铜、锂、镍和稀土。预计资本支出：到 2050 年为$5-15T。

数字网络：光纤、通信塔和卫星地面站。预计资本支出：到 2050 年为$6-15T。

太空基础设施：太空作为规模因子将随着运输和发射的规模效应大幅增长。太空将在未来数十年成为基础设施投资机会。2050 年的保守资本支出估算为$2-6T，但这个数字可能带有更高的乘数。如果发射成本按历史成本曲线下降 10-50 倍，机会将扩大至$10-30T，极端情况下达$50T。其中包括：卫星星座$3-8T、发射基础设施$1-3T、轨道基础设施（燃料拖船、服务站，本质上是轨道物流枢纽）$2-7T、天基太阳能$2-10T、太空制造$1-5T，以及月球基础设施$1-5T。

我跳过了氢气生产，因为我不确定它在更广泛的电气化转型中如何演变。

总计来看，为基础设施融资可能为 DeFi 带来约$100-200T 的机会。作为参比，全球前十大银行合计管理约$13T 的资产管理规模。成功为这场转型中的大部分融资，将使 Aave 成为迄今最大的金融网络。

为 Aave 选择正确的形式

基础设施融资在 DeFi 中可以采取两种主要形式。

路径一：收益型稳定币（YBS）

YBS 正成为链下收入分配给链上用户的有力示例。Ethena 主要通过基差交易实现这一点；USD.ai 通过 GPU 融资实现。质押 sUSDai 的年化收益率为 10-15%。

从 Aave 的视角来看，YBS 的增长直接转化为协议增长。Aave 是一台循环机器：如果 YBS 基础设施产品的收益率高于 Aave 的资金成本（约为 4-5%），就存在循环机会：以 YBS 为抵押品从 Aave 借入流动性，再重新部署。我将 YBS 视为链上收益率分配封装器，具有与传统链下基金相似的特征。

路径二：直接抵押化

将代币化基础设施直接用作抵押品意味着收益率或经济收益保留在链下或借款人手中，但通过抵押和借款需求流入 Aave，为存款人产生稳定币的供给收益率。这条路径也不以追求稳定净资产值为目标，因此非常适合净资产值存在波动、无法通过稳定币测试的资产。

哪条路径会胜出？很难说。各有优势，Aave 已对两种模式都支持良好。YBS 的例子包括 Ethena 的 sUSDe 和 Maple 的 SyrupUSDT。直接抵押化的例子包括 Tether 的黄金（xAUT）、比特币和以太坊抵押贷款，以及 JAAA RWA 基金——在该基金中，底层经济收益归资产所有人，以换取通过 Aave 间接向链上存款人支付利息。值得注意的是，Aave 自己的 aToken（如 aUSDC）在某种意义上本身就是这类用例中最早形式的链上 YBS。

两条路径取决于用户类型。前者的用户画像可能是最大化 YBS 收益率的链上配置者；后者的借款人可能是希望扩大流动性配置、在不直接要求链上收益率分配的情况下建设更多基础设施以扩大规模的运营商或基金。

收益够用吗？

虽然 DeFi 目前在当前利率环境下确实存在过剩资本，但基础设施融资应能提供足够的上行空间来转移这些资本。各领域平均股权内部收益率：太阳能 10%，电池 12%，数据中心 13%，电动车充电基础设施 13%，水利基础设施 9%，太空基础设施约为 18%。技术风险越高、处于成本曲线越早期的位置，假设回报越高。

收益率可以通过策略进一步提升。Aave V4 之上的金库可以配置到收益率为 8-12%的太阳能农场，将该资产作为抵押品借入 GHO（为 Aave 创造高收益利润空间），再将 GHO 重新投入收益率为 12-18%的电池农场，甚至是年化回报率为 10-20%的 GPU 数据中心机会。

DeFi 用户通常对赎回风险和锁定期敏感（随着赛道成熟，这可能在未来发生变化）。基础设施产品通常会产生现金流，有助于缓解赎回风险。将 Aave 作为流动性套管，可以使这些产品对用户更加可及——用户可以向专注于这些特定经济特征和信任假设的专业枢纽供应流动性，在隔离和控制风险的同时，确保能够获取基础设施机会。关键区别还在于，直接将资产本身代币化能够实现基于拍卖的清算，与缓慢分层的债务封装基金相比，改善了这些资产的流动性特征。

Aave 作为金融基础设施层

Aave 进入 RWA 和基础设施机会的最佳路径，是作为融资流动性的基础层，从技术风险低的成熟端开始（太阳能），然后借助 Aave V4 枢纽辐射架构提供的精细风险控制，逐步向风险更高的资产迈进。

今天，大多数 RWA 代币化聚焦于已有深度流动性市场的资产：国库券、货币市场基金、企业信贷。这些资产交易顺畅，用户已有足够渠道借入这些资产。同样，虽然私人信贷表面上似乎是引人注目的 DeFi 用例，但也存在缺点。私人信贷通常为 CLO、企业和私募股权融资。如果基础设施层是我所说的底层，那这就是顶层。在一个转型速度比以往任何时候都快的世界里，尤其是在顶层，资产需要向我们正在建设的未来倾斜，而非向我们正在离开的过去倾斜。一个看似出色的资产担保金融产品，可能在账面上表现亮眼，却在明日的世界中失去其定位。

传统金融资产代币化将持续增长，肯定会成为 Aave 故事的一部分，就像加密原生资产及其增长持续存在一样。但更大的机会在于成为未来的基础设施融资层。这正是让我对 RWA 和 Aave 感到兴奋的地方。

对金融科技公司意味着什么？

大型金融科技公司正日益成为分发和体验层：将优质金融产品触达终端用户的界面。我此前写道，利用 DeFi 能让金融科技公司为新金融产品解锁更精简的成本结构。DeFi 近乎自主运行，更透明，并通过智能合约保证执行。它需要更少的运营支出，能够实现更紧的利润空间，并开辟新的金融机会。

在金融准入商品化、不再提供差异化价值主张的世界里，获取独特收益率机会的能力为金融科技公司（乃至银行）及其用户带来新价值。金融科技公司积极参与稳定币发行空间，也意味着可能开辟新的用例机会，以及以基础设施抵押品担保贷款的稳定币真实借贷需求。

金融科技公司和银行通过 Aave Kit 和 Aave App，可以成为 Aave V4 上以基础设施抵押品产生的收益率的完美分发渠道，这些抵押品与我们正在建设的未来息息相关。将 Aave 接入金融科技公司和银行以注入资本，可以将向丰裕世界过渡的进程加速 10-15 年。这是 Aave 及其各集成合作伙伴捕获和共享$200T 市场价值的独特机会。

The Hong Kong government has announced the results of the tender for the Sha Ling Data Park, covering an area of over 110,000 square meters. The contract has been awarded to Hong Kong Runjiang Zhishuan Technology Co., Ltd., which will develop the site into an advanced data center and related industry park with a lease term of 50 years. According to RTHK, the parent companies of the winning bidder are Hong Kong Runfeng Zhishuan Technology Development Co., Ltd. and Sengoku (Hong Kong) Technology Co., Ltd., with the ultimate holding company being Runze Zhishuan Technology Group Co., Ltd.

Sun Dong, Secretary for Innovation, Technology and Industry, stated that the company has extensive experience in developing high-end data centers, having established and operated such facilities in various cities across mainland China. The bid price for the tender was HK$581 million. The tender evaluation was conducted using a "dual-envelope system," requiring compliance with both non-price and price terms.

Sun Dong highlighted several commitments made by the bidder in their non-price proposal, including the expectation to commence operations within 42 months, an investment scale of HK$23.8 billion in the first three years from development to operation, and an estimated economic output of HK$4.6 billion. The project is expected to create approximately 180 technical positions. By 2032, the data park is anticipated to provide 180,000 teraflops of computing power, equivalent to 36 times the current computing capacity in Hong Kong.

Sun Dong described the project as a new milestone in Hong Kong's artificial intelligence development, demonstrating the industry's trust in the Northern Metropolis development with tangible investments. He believes the Sha Ling Data Park will offer advanced computing facilities to Hong Kong and surrounding regions, fostering the growth of data and AI-related industries and helping establish Hong Kong as a regional hub for advanced data computing power. The government will strictly monitor the project's progress according to the service contract to ensure the bidder fulfills their commitments on time and with quality.

Permanent Secretary for Innovation, Technology and Industry, Chai Kit-ming, noted that although only one bid was received, it underwent rigorous evaluation, and the involved company is deemed capable and qualified. After the land is awarded, the company will establish a service contract with the government and provide a guarantee of over HK$400 million. Chai Kit-ming also mentioned that the land is quite large with several slopes, and the winning bid exceeded the land's reserve price, benefiting public funds and demonstrating the company's confidence in the Hong Kong market. Considering the parent company's substantial experience in mainland China, with 20 projects already completed, the decision was made.

BlockBeats News, March 2: Japanese yen stablecoin issuer JPYC has signed a strategic partnership memorandum of understanding with Sony Bank and its Web3 subsidiary BlockBloom. The two parties plan to provide real-time bank account transfer functionality on the "JPYC EX" platform, allowing users to purchase JPYC directly from their Sony Bank account without the need for manual remittance. Additionally, the two parties will explore collaboration with entertainment IPs such as music, games, etc., utilizing JPYC for digital content purchases and fan rewards.

火星财经消息，据港媒香港 01 报道，香港行政会议成员、香港金管局前总裁任志刚则表示，地缘政治的演变令港元挂钩美元的重要性提升，并直言“港元其实是美元最大的稳定币”。 任志刚指出，截至 2025 年香港约持有 2,560 亿美元美国国债，规模大过现在任何一个所谓的美元稳定币，因此香港金融方向很清晰，要保持联系汇率制度，在亚洲最活跃的美元市场是香港，若不让港元继续挂钩美元，迫使一个大买家抛售并不明智。

Decentralized data platform Space and Time has launched a new incentive scheme based on zero-knowledge proof (ZK) technology. According to Foresight News, the ZK-Proven Incentives aim to shift protocol reward mechanisms from a focus on scale, such as total value locked (TVL) or transaction volume, to smart incentives based on protocol health and risk management.

The scheme employs a three-layer architecture consisting of an indexing layer, a query layer, and a contract layer. This setup allows protocols to conduct complex SQL analyses of user behavior off-chain, such as borrowers' long-term collateral ratios, repayment patterns, and traders' hedging quality and leverage risk. The results are then used to generate ZK proofs for on-chain contract verification.

Through this mechanism, lending protocols can identify and reward high-quality borrowers and long-term liquidity providers, while derivatives protocols can incentivize hedging behaviors that contribute to market stability. This approach aims to reduce bad debt and liquidation risks during extreme market conditions, thereby enhancing overall capital efficiency.

Ripple unlocked another 1 billion tokens this morning from its XRP escrow account. As reported byWhale Alert, the release of 1 billion XRP, equivalent to more than $1.377 billion, occurred in three tranches: 200, 300 and 500 million XRP were unlocked step by step from the San Francisco-based blockchain company’s escrow accounts.

🔓 🔓 🔓 🔓 🔓 🔓 🔓 🔓 🔓 🔓 500,000,000 #XRP (688,880,546 USD) unlocked at #Ripplehttps://t.co/gilwkVVkVF

— Whale Alert (@whale_alert) March 1, 2026

Ripple's XRP holdings and February performance: Recap

According toXRPL Services, the company currently continues to hold around 32.91 billion XRP. This accounts for approximately 32% of the token’s total supply and, at current prices, is equivalent to more than $45.3 billion. As is known, the unlocking takes place to boost liquidity, manage the market and support the gradual release ofXRP from the wallets.

For XRP itself, at the time of release the price showed almost no reaction, with only a 0.9% increase from the day’s opening. In this context, the February figures, which have just closed, are more interesting as the month ended with XRP down 16.45%. At the peak of February’s decline, the drop reached 33%.

The month was short, yet during this period theprice of XRP still managed to experience such turbulence as to fall 33% from the monthly opening and then recover by 22%. The token continues to trade near the key $1.4 level, although it has not reached it.

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Historically, March has been a more favorable month for XRP, given its average return of 16.7% during this month. However, the median value remains in negative territory, so it is difficult to speak of any clear preference for the token in the new month. It also remains to be seen how many XRP tokens will be returned back to escrow accounts. Usually, this amount ranges from 200 to 300 million tokens.

啟動技術供應商篩選，巴克萊加速佈局數位資產基盤

根據《彭博社》報導，英國跨國銀行巨頭巴克萊銀行（Barclays）目前正積極探索建立一個基於區塊鏈技術的全新平台，旨在優化現有的支付流程與預金管理系統。這家總部位於倫敦的金融機構已經向多家技術供應商發出資訊調度要求書（RFI），尋求能夠處理穩定幣以及「代幣化存款」等數位資產應用的基礎設施解決方案。

相關報導顯示，該行預計最快將在 2026 年 4 月完成合作夥伴的篩選工作，並正式選定技術供應商。這項行動顯示出巴克萊銀行正透過分散式帳本技術（DLT）整合其核心銀行功能，以應對日益成長的數位資產需求。

這項計劃的核心目標在於將傳統金融系統與區塊鏈技術進行深度融合，實現 24 小時 365 天不間斷的即時結算功能。透過建構自有的區塊鏈基盤，巴克萊銀行希望能夠顯著降低國內外資金轉帳的成本，並提升整體基礎設施的現代化程度。該行正評估的系統能支援受監管的穩定幣，也具備處理代幣化存款的能力，這意味著傳統的銀行帳戶餘額將被記錄在區塊鏈網路上。

這種模式允許銀行在維持現有監管架構與合規要求的同時，利用區塊鏈的特性提升資金轉移的效率。這項基礎設施的建構旨在為未來可能普及的央行數位貨幣（CBDC）以及民間穩定幣應用鋪路，顯示出巴克萊銀行對於未來金融基礎設施轉型的戰略部署。

從保守轉向積極，追趕全球銀行產業的區塊鏈競賽

巴克萊銀行此次的舉動象徵著其戰略方針的重大轉變。該行由早期的謹慎觀望態度，轉向更為直接且積極的實驗精神。這種轉變是為了跟上全球金融同業的步伐，因為諸如摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase）與匯豐銀行（HSBC）等主要對手，早已在支付與結算產業部署了區塊鏈解決方案。摩根大通在 2019 年就推出了用於法人客戶結算的代幣化存款代幣 JPM Coin，近期更將其拓展至不同鏈上網路，實現了互通性數位貨幣的願景。巴克萊銀行加快了相關基礎設施的投資節奏，確保其在金融技術轉型中具備競爭力。

回顧巴克萊銀行的數位資產進程，該行在 2025 年 10 月便加入了由多家銀行組成的聯盟，共同研究設計可在公有區塊鏈上運行的儲備支持型數位貨幣。該項目的研究重點集中在與 G7 貨幣掛鉤的資產，目的是提高國際間結算的速度並降低成本。

穩定幣交易量在全世界範圍內持續擴大，傳統銀行意識到數位化趨勢已不可逆轉。若銀行無法提供相應的數位化服務，則可能面臨存款流失至民間穩定幣發行方的風險。因此，巴克萊銀行正透過建立自有的區塊鏈平台，將數位錢包與傳統帳戶進行連結，確保其在數位金融產業的競爭力。

戰略投資數位結算平台，鎖定代幣化存款與互通性

巴克萊銀行在數位資產產業的佈局已有明確軌跡。在 1 月，該行宣佈對美國穩定幣結算新創公司 Ubyx 進行戰略投資，這是該行首次直接注資於專注於穩定幣技術的企業。Ubyx 提供一套針對代幣化存款與受監管穩定幣的全球清算系統，巴克萊銀行的目標是在符合法規的前提下開發新型態的數位貨幣。

巴克萊銀行數位資產與戰略投資主管 Ryan Hayward 指出，隨著代幣、區塊鏈與錢包的環境不斷演進，專門技術將在提供連接性與基礎設施方面發揮關鍵作用，使受監管的金融機構實現無縫互動。

巴克萊銀行認為，「互通性」是數位資產大規模普及的必要條件。代幣化存款與穩定幣在性質上有所區別：

穩定幣通常由私人公司發行並由儲備資產支持；

代幣化存款則代表傳統銀行帳戶在鏈上的數位表現形式。

巴克萊銀行建構的系統將同時支援這兩種模型，讓客戶在維持傳統銀行安全性的同時，享受區塊鏈技術帶來的便利。這種策略能強化現有的存款體系，透過與 Ubyx 等技術方的合作，讓數位錢包與傳統銀行帳戶實現互連，從而解鎖數位資產的潛力。

延伸閱讀
巴克萊銀行入股Ubyx！攜手美國新創，探索合規穩定幣、代幣化存款

監管架構趨於成熟，穩定幣結算規模預計迎來爆發式成長

推動巴克萊銀行投入區塊鏈技術的另一動能來自於監管環境變遷。美國通過的《GENIUS 法案》為掛鉤美元的代幣確立了法律架構，促使全球主要金融機構重新審視其數位資產策略。隨著政策不確定性消除，機構投資人對區塊鏈技術的信心大幅提升。數據顯示，穩定幣如 $USDT 與 $USDC 在全球支付市場中的地位正迅速提升。

彭博情報（Bloomberg Intelligence）分析師估計，到 2030 年年底，穩定幣每年的支付處理量可能超過 50 兆美元。

穩定幣市場的總市值已接近 3,100 億。花旗銀行（Citi）在其基礎預測報告中指出，到 2030 年穩定幣的發行量可能達到 1.9 兆，在樂觀情況下甚至可能接近 4 兆。此外，美國財政部長史考特・貝森特（Scott Bessent）也曾預測穩定幣市值在 2028 年可能突破 2 兆。

這種爆發式的成長預期，迫使巴克萊銀行這類傳統金融巨頭必須儘早建立基礎設施，應對未來的資金大規模移轉。這項舉措是技術升級，也是保護銀行核心業務的防禦性戰略，防止資金大規模流向非銀行體系的數位美元產品。

金融基礎設施近代化，傳統銀行存款面臨數位轉型挑戰

區塊鏈技術帶來了效率提升的契機，也伴隨著轉型壓力。渣打銀行（Standard Chartered）指出，若穩定幣獲得更廣泛的採用，預計將有 5,000 億的資金從美國傳統銀行存款中流向代幣化的替代方案。這種流動性的轉移將挑戰銀行的存款基礎與支付流程，這也是銀行商業模式的兩大支柱。巴克萊銀行正透過引入 DLT 技術來優化內部流程，使結算系統比傳統的電匯更具透明度與效率。

現有的金融流程中存在許多中間機構，導致結算速度緩慢且成本高昂。巴克萊銀行建立自有區塊鏈基盤，旨在移除不必要的仲介環節，實現自動化金融交易。

隨著監管機構對穩定幣獎勵機制與市場結構的討論持續升溫，傳統銀行在合規性上的優勢將成為競爭利器。這項計劃反映了銀行產業對區塊鏈技術實用化的認可，也預示傳統金融與去中心化技術之間的界線將變得更加模糊。

『銀行巨頭轉向數位金融！巴克萊銀行探索穩定幣支付基建，最快4月選出合作夥伴』這篇文章最早發佈於『加密城市』

Optimism 打赢了标准之战，只是胜利并没有带来守住成果的方法。

撰文：Thejaswini M A

编译：Luffy，Foresight News

Optimism 故事本可以有一个大获全胜的版本。

在那个版本里，OP Stack 成为以太坊扩容的默认基础设施，数十家资金雄厚的链加入 Superchain，收入回流至 Collective，互操作性功能顺利上线，整个生态不断复利，远看就像一种全新形态的互联网：他不属于任何人，所有人共治、自我维持。

这个版本并非天方夜谭。曾有一段时间，它看起来真的就要发生了。问题在于：Optimism 为实现这一愿景所做的一切，也使得保护这一愿景变得不可能。

OP Stack 采用 MIT 开源协议发布。这一决策的重要性，几乎超过 Optimism 做出的任何其他选择，因此有必要明确其含义：MIT 是目前最宽松的通用开源协议，任何人都可以取用代码、二次开发、修改、商业化，甚至直接完整分叉。无需版权费、无需收入分成、无任何义务，你甚至连一声谢谢都不必说。

Optimism 是刻意做出这一选择的。逻辑很简单：如果你想成为默认框架，就要消除一切不采用你的理由。把接入成本降到零，让协议毫无争议，让任何有开发预算的团队、公司、交易所，都能无需许可、无需签署任何文件，一键启动一条 OP Stack 链。

它成功了。到 2025 年年中，OP Stack 处理了 69.9% 的 L2 交易手续费，34 条链已在主网上线。Coinbase、Uniswap、Kraken、Sony、Worldcoin 都在用它。当人们谈论以太坊扩容时，他们通常说的就是基于 Optimism 代码构建的东西。

Optimism 打赢了标准之战。

然后，它曾助力构建的最大一条链，宣布不再需要这段关系。

2026 年 2 月 18 日，Coinbase 发布了一篇博客，标题措辞谨慎而亲切，这是公司宣布重大事件却不想显得刺耳时的典型文风。Base 链将整合代码库、加速开发周期、降低协调成本。文章表达了感谢，赞颂了合作。

消息一出，OP 代币在 48 小时内暴跌 28%，卖出量激增 157%。短短几天内，代币较一年前下跌 89.8%，截至撰稿时仅 0.12 美元，而 2024 年 3 月高点为 4.85 美元。OP Labs CEO Jing Wang 在 X 上写道：「这对短期链上收入是一次打击。」

要理解原因，你必须明白 Superchain 真正售卖的是什么。

OP Stack 是免费的。协议让这一点永久且不可撤销。那么，为什么会有链愿意与 Optimism Collective 分享收入？Optimism 的答案是：互操作性。加入 Superchain，你的链就不只是一条链，而是统一网络的一部分 —— 流动性和用户可以在所有成员链之间自由流动，在一条链上开发等同于在所有链上开发，实现 1+1>2 效应。

这就是它的价值主张：支付总收入的 2.5% 或净利润的 15%，作为回报，你能获得任何单条链都无法独自构建的东西。

但互操作性从未上线。

Optimism 原定 2025 年初在主网上线原生互操作性，但它没有到来。一位长期治理代表表示：「尽管经过多年技术开发，遗憾的是，这一点并未实现。」

成员们在交 「税」，而这笔钱本该支撑的产品仍停留在理论层面。Superchain 实际提供的，只有共享品牌、共享治理成本，以及一项收入义务。而让这项义务值得付出的东西，永远 「就在眼前」。与此同时，Base 还在持续增长。

到 2026 年 1 月，Base 贡献了流入 Optimism Collective 全部 Gas 费的 96.5%，几乎是全部。Base 的交易量约为 OP Mainnet 的 4 倍，DEX 交易量约为 144 倍，Gas 费产出为 80 倍。在双方合作期间，Collective 生命周期内总共收到约 14,000 ETH，其中 Base 贡献了 8,387 ETH，且月度收入占比一路逼近 100%。

另外 33 个 Superchain 成员虽在名单上，但经济上无足轻重。2025 年上半年，第二活跃的成员 World Chain 仅占 Superchain 计算总量的 11.5%，OP Mainnet 自身为 11.4%，Ink、Soneium、Unichain 加起来不到 13%。

Superchain 除了名义之外，实际上已经变成一条链的生态。联盟在纸面上是真实的，经济上则完全是 Base。

在任何联盟中，发展到一定阶段，最强的参与者都会问出那个显而易见的问题：我到底从中得到了什么？

几乎每一个成功开源故事里，都在上演同一套逻辑。MongoDB 打造了广为使用的数据库，开源发布，然后眼睁睁看着 AWS 在其上构建盈利的托管服务，却分文不付。AWS 掌握流量分发，MongoDB 制定了标准，价值流向掌控用户的实体，而非编写代码的实体。MongoDB 最终修改了协议，AWS 则将其分叉为 OpenSearch。

Elastic、Redis 也经历过同样循环。细节不同，但结构完全一致：基础设施制定者建立标准，拥有分发能力的巨头采用它，巨头收割价值，最终巨头内化技术栈并离开。

Optimism 是这个故事的加密版本。

Arbitrum 看明白了这套逻辑，做出了不同选择。与 Superchain 对标的 Orbit 链，采用 Business Source 协议，收入分成基于合同约束，而非自愿。当你最大的合作伙伴可以在无法律后果的情况下离开时，联盟的存亡完全取决于其留下的意愿。Arbitrum 不想基于这种假设构建生态。

Base 官方给出的离开理由是技术层面：统一代码库意味着更快开发，目标从每年 3 次大升级提升至 6 次；独立掌控安全委员会，意味着没有外部机构能拖延或阻止网络决策；减少依赖，意味着 Base 可以跟上以太坊自身的升级节奏，无需等待不受其控制的治理流程。

跨多个代码库协调，确实比自己掌控技术栈更慢。

但还有另一个原因，无需赘述。摩根士丹利测算，Base 代币可为 Coinbase 带来约 340 亿美元股权价值，并将其目标价上调至 404 美元。只要 Base 仍在向外部协议的 Collective 缴纳 15% 净利润，设计一个具备可靠价值捕获能力的 Base 代币在结构上就极为困难。离开 Superchain 是前提，而非副作用。两种动机指向同一个方向，Base 也确实这么做了。

留给 Optimism 的并非一无所有，但必须诚实地面对已经发生的改变。

OP Mainnet 仍持有 15 亿美元 TVL。就在 Base 宣布离开的同一天，ether.fi 表示将把链上信用卡产品迁移至 OP Mainnet，带来 7 万张活跃卡片、30 万个账户、超 1.6 亿美元 TVL。几周前，Collective 刚通过回购计划，将排序器收入的 50% 用于每月回购 OP。

ether.fi 合作为 OP Mainnet 在消费支付领域带来了更清晰的用例。但 ether.fi 的年化手续费贡献仅约 1300 万美元，而 Base 仅 2025 年一年利润就达 5500 万美元。回购计划所依托的收入基础，已不复存在。投资者与贡献者的代币解锁仍以每月约 3200 万美元 的规模持续。

向企业服务转型或许是正确的一步。OP Labs 已融资超 1.75 亿美元，拥有顶尖工程人才，且机构对托管式 OP Stack 部署确实存在真实需求，这些机构希望启动链，却不想自建维护能力。Jing Wang 将其定位为「区块链基础设施领域的 Databricks」，这是一个合理的类比。这是一门服务业务，它可以走通。

但服务业务，与通过联盟产生复利协议收入的网络完全不同。OP 代币的估值，原本是为后者定价的。博客发布不到 12 小时，市场就已经理解了这一点。

把视野拉远。2 月 18 日发生的事，本质上不只是关于 Optimism。

2024 年大部分时间里，超过 50 个 L2 网络在争夺用户与流动性。到 2025 年末，Base、Arbitrum、Optimism 三家处理了近 90% 的 L2 交易，仅 Base 就超过 60%。小型 Rollup 自 6 月以来活跃度下降 61%。Dencun 升级带来 90% 费用下调，全行业利润率被压缩。Base 是 2025 年唯一实现盈利的 L2。

那些存活下来的链，以及未来几年将定义这一层级的链未必是技术最精湛的。它们是拥有结构性用户留存理由的链。交易所背景的链（Base、Ink、Mantle），依托母公司现有用户群自带分发能力，每一个想进入链上的 Coinbase 用户，距离 Base 只需一键。像 Arbitrum、Hyperliquid 这样的 DeFi 原生链，则依靠难以在别处重建的流动性深度守住地位。

技术是可以被分叉的。OP Stack 再好不过地证明了这一点。无法被分叉的，是 Coinbase 与它 1 亿用户的关系，或是 Arbitrum 上百亿美元的未平仓头寸。持久价值就在这里，与你为代码库选择哪种协议几乎无关。

Optimism 决定以宽松开源协议发布 OP Stack，这是正确的选择。它带来了 L2 框架中最广泛的采用，让 Optimism 成为整整一代以太坊扩容的基础设施标准。没有这个决定，Base 可能会基于其他技术构建，甚至根本不会出现。

但让这一切成为可能的决定，也让退出变得毫无成本。当 Base 成长到足够大，拥有自己的用户、自己的代币路线图、自己追求基础设施完全主权的理由时，协议里没有任何约束，互操作性的承诺也不足以给它留下的理由。

Optimism 打赢了标准战争。只是这个标准，并没有附带一套能捕获它所创造价值的机制。0.12 美元的代币价格，就是市场对这一切价值的最终定价。

Key Insights:

Shiba Inu burn rate plunged 98.94% to just 305,490 tokens, weakening the deflation narrative amid massive circulating supply pressure.

Open interest declined 7.41% while $46.84 million long liquidations confirmed bulls were trapped during the recent failed breakout attempt.

SHIB trades below major EMAs as tight Keltner Channels signal imminent volatility expansion with support at $0.00000593 under pressure.

Shiba Inu trades near $0.00000601 after failing to hold gains above $0.00000650. The token rose 0.33% over four hours but continues to move inside a tight range. Momentum has slowed as on-chain and derivatives data show fading participation.

Data from Shibburn shows the burn rate dropped 98.94% over the past 24 hours. Only 305,490 SHIB moved to dead wallets during that period.

The largest single transaction burned 10 million tokens, while most transfers involved only a few hundred coins. So far, 410.75 trillion SHIB have been removed from the original supply. However, 585.47 trillion tokens still circulate out of a 999.98 trillion maximum supply.

Deflation Narrative Weakens

The sharp fall in burn activity reduces the immediate supply impact. Previously, burn spikes exceeded 470%, which supported short-term optimism. Now, the slowdown limits any meaningful reduction relative to the vast supply.

Consequently, traders appear less convinced that burns alone can drive price expansion. Market activity reflects that hesitation.

According to Coinglass, open interest declined 7.41% to $57.87 million. Trading volume also fell 7.53% to $162.23 million.

Long to short ratios on OKX remain elevated at 2.18, showing retail positioning still leans bullish. However, top traders hold $4.17 million in short positions against $2.13 million in longs on shorter time frames.

Liquidations Confirm Bull Trap

Liquidation data adds further clarity. Over the past day, $46.84 million in long positions were wiped out compared with $4.81 million in shorts.

That imbalance shows leveraged buyers entered near recent highs and exited quickly as price slipped. Additionally, falling open interest and volume suggest traders are closing positions rather than opening new ones.

Source: TradingView

On the four-hour chart from TradingView, SHIB holds slightly above the Supertrend at $0.00000593. However, price remains below the 20, 50, 100, and 200 EMAs, which now act as resistance layers.

The 0.5 Fibonacci level at $0.00000662 stands as immediate upside resistance. Support rests near $0.00000582, with tighter compression visible on lower time frames.

Volatility Compression Builds

Two-hour charts show price confined inside narrow Keltner Channels between $0.00000588 and $0.00000623. Chaikin Money Flow reads 0.07, reflecting weak buying pressure.

Significantly, SHIB rebounded 18% from February lows near $0.00000510 but still trades well below January highs above $0.00000814. Price now balances between compressed volatility and weakening participation.

火星财经消息，Polygon 官方于 X 发文表示，二月 POL 销毁量创下历史新高，合计销毁了 28,200,000 POL。此前消息，Polygon 生态最重要的应用、预测市场 Polymarket 的二月交易量亦创历史性高。

Strategy founder Michael Saylor announced on social media that the dividend rate for STRC, maturing in March 2026, has been increased by 25 basis points to 11.50%. According to ChainCatcher, this adjustment reflects the company's strategic financial decisions.

A former largest on-chain BTC long position was liquidated 24 times within 24 hours after opening a 40x leveraged $66.8 million Bitcoin bet, with the trader’s account plunging from $2.66 million to just $140,000.The cascade highlights the extreme risks of high-leverage trading amid geopolitical volatility.24 Liquidations in One DayAccording to monitoring by HyperInsight, wallet address 0xdf1, previously the largest BTC long holder on-chain, suffered:4 liquidations within one hour24 total liquidations in 24 hoursApproximately $3.9 million liquidated in the latest roundThe account balance dropped from roughly $2.66 million to about $140,000, marking a 94.7% drawdown.The next liquidation level for the remaining BTC holdings is reported at $65,370.1,000 BTC Long at 40x LeverageOn March 1, shortly after reports of the assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the address aggressively opened a high-leverage BTC long position.At peak exposure:Position size: 1,000 BTCNotional value: approximately $66.83 millionLeverage: 40xInitial liquidation price: around $66,560The trader appeared to be betting on a rapid market rebound amid expectations of geopolitical de-escalation.SOL Profits Funded the High-Risk BetNotably, the capital for the BTC trade did not come from fresh deposits.On February 28, the wallet deposited approximately $470,000 into Hyperliquid to long SOL at high leverage, with an average entry near $78.The following day:SOL surged to $88The position’s value increased more than fivefoldUnrealized profits were used as margin to open the BTC tradeWhile the strategy amplified gains initially, it also dramatically increased downside risk. When BTC reversed, both leveraged exposures became vulnerable to cascading liquidations.Lessons From the Liquidation CascadeThis episode underscores several key dynamics in leveraged crypto markets:High leverage (40x) leaves little margin for volatilityUnrealized profits used as collateral increase systemic exposureGeopolitical events can trigger sharp price reversalsLiquidation cascades can rapidly erase large balancesWith BTC hovering near key support levels, aggressive leveraged positioning continues to face elevated risk.The address’s rapid collapse from largest long holder to near wipeout within 24 hours illustrates how quickly sentiment-driven trades can unwind in highly leveraged markets.