Pejmanzwin

$USDT Dominance (USDT.D) is one of the most important indicators I monitor when analyzing the broader cryptocurrency market.
USDT Dominance represents Tether’s share of the total crypto market capitalization.
In general, when USDT.D rises, it can signal that capital is rotating toward stablecoins and risk appetite is weakening. When it declines, conditions are often more supportive for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
Right now, the structure is becoming particularly interesting.
Technical Analysis
On the Daily timeframe, USDT.D has entered the Heavy Support Zone at 5.25%–6.77% and successfully broken below its Support Lines.
Today’s move also appears to have completed a pullback toward those previously broken Support Lines, potentially setting the stage for another move lower.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, USDT.D appears to be completing its main Wave 5.
The key area I’m watching is the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) at 6.07%–6.30%.
I expect USDT Dominance to potentially continue declining toward this PRZ.
If that happens, it could create a more favorable environment for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, as declining stablecoin dominance generally reflects improving risk appetite across the crypto market.
But There Is a Second Scenario to Watch
The PRZ could become even more important once Wave 5 is complete.
If USDT.D reaches 6.07%–6.30% and reacts strongly from this area, a short-term bullish reversal in dominance could begin.
That would potentially create the opposite effect:
USDT.D falling → supportive for crypto
USDT.D reversing higher → increased correction risk for crypto
This means the current decline could support another bullish phase first, while the eventual reaction from the PRZ may provide an early warning that market conditions are beginning to change.
Key Zone
Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ): 6.07%–6.30%
For now, I’m watching for further weakness in USDT.D toward this area.
But once the PRZ is reached, the reaction could become an important signal for the next short-term direction of $BTC and the broader crypto market.
What do you expect first: continued weakness in USDT Dominance and higher crypto prices, or an early reversal before the PRZ is reached?
#Tether

$BTC has gained more than 6–7% over the past few hours, building strong bullish momentum and pushing back toward some of the most important resistance levels on the chart.
But after such a sharp move, Bitcoin is now entering a major technical resistance structure — while ETF flows remain inconsistent and regulatory uncertainty has not disappeared.
Can Bitcoin establish itself above $85,000, or is the current rally setting up another correction?
Macro Outlook
From a fundamental perspective, the bullish move still needs confirmation.
Bitcoin ETF flows have remained volatile rather than consistently bullish, suggesting that institutional demand has not yet developed into a stable one-way trend.
At the same time, the failure of the CLARITY Act to advance in the U.S. Senate has added another layer of regulatory uncertainty for the crypto market.
These factors do not necessarily end the rally, but they increase the importance of confirmation before assuming that a sustained bullish breakout has begun.
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin is currently trading inside the Heavy Resistance Zone at $79,350–$84,500, while approaching several major technical areas at the same time:
Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ): $82,850–$87,100
Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $82,300–$85,400
Resistance Lines
The upper CME Gap at $83,215–$84,560 is also back in focus and could finally be filled after remaining open for several months.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, Bitcoin appears to be completing Primary Wave 5, while Primary Wave 3 developed as an Extended Wave.
A Negative Regular Divergence (RD-) is also visible between Consecutive Peaks, providing another warning that bullish momentum may be weakening as price moves deeper into resistance.
I expect Bitcoin to potentially move further into the Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage and major PRZ, possibly filling the upper CME Gap first.
A temporary breakout above the Heavy Resistance Zone — followed by a Bull Trap — also remains possible before the next bearish move develops.
From this broader resistance structure, I expect Bitcoin to potentially correct toward $79,000.
If bearish momentum strengthens, the decline could extend toward the key $77,700 trading level.
Trade Setup
First TP: $79,000
Second TP: $77,700
Stop Loss: $87,300
Key Trading Level: $77,700
Upper CME Gap: $83,215–$84,560
Bitcoin’s momentum is clearly bullish right now — but price is also entering one of the strongest technical resistance clusters on the chart.
The next reaction inside $82,300–$87,100 could determine whether this rally develops into a genuine breakout or ends with another Bull Trap.
Which level will Bitcoin reach first?
🔴 $77,700
🟢 $87,300
#bitcoin

The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, and Chair Kevin Warsh’s message afterward was clear:
Inflation remains too high, the economy remains resilient, and the Fed is not yet convinced that price pressures are returning sustainably toward its 2% target.
For financial markets, this is an important shift.
The Fed is becoming more serious about restoring price stability — and if inflation does not improve sufficiently, additional monetary tightening remains possible.
Key Takeaways From Kevin Warsh
Warsh emphasized several important points:
• Inflation remains too high and has stayed elevated for too long.
• Recent inflation data have not provided enough evidence that the underlying trend is moving sustainably toward the 2% target.
• Upside inflation risks have increased, while risks surrounding the labor market remain broadly balanced.
• The U.S. economy remains resilient, with low unemployment and a labor market that is still relatively strong.
• Warsh indicated that the economy is operating close to full employment, giving the Fed more room to focus on restoring price stability.
• Financial conditions are difficult to describe as genuinely restrictive, which reduces the argument for maintaining easier policy.
• The Fed will focus more on economic trends than on individual data releases, which can be volatile and misleading.
• Warsh did not pre-commit to the next policy decision, meaning future moves will continue to depend on inflation, economic activity and broader financial conditions.
Why Are Treasury Yields So High?
Warsh highlighted several forces contributing to elevated Treasury yields:
Stronger economic growth
A resilient economy reduces the urgency for easier monetary policy.
Heavy investment and competition for capital
Large investment requirements increase demand for capital and can put upward pressure on long-term borrowing costs.
Geopolitical risk
Ongoing global uncertainty can also influence inflation expectations, capital flows and Treasury-market pricing.
What Does This Mean for Markets?
U.S. Dollar
The current policy environment is fundamentally supportive for the U.S. Dollar.
Higher-for-longer interest rates — and the possibility of additional tightening — can increase the relative attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets.
That does not guarantee that DXY will rise continuously, but the monetary-policy backdrop remains supportive.
U.S. Treasury Yields
If markets continue pricing another rate hike or a longer period of restrictive policy, Treasury yields could remain elevated.
This is especially important because higher yields tighten financial conditions across nearly every major asset class.
Gold
Gold now faces competing forces.
Geopolitical uncertainty can create safe-haven demand, but higher Treasury yields and a stronger Dollar can pressure non-yielding assets.
If yields continue climbing, gold could struggle despite elevated geopolitical risk.
Bitcoin & Crypto
For Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, the main risk is tighter liquidity.
Higher yields and a stronger Dollar can reduce investors’ willingness to hold riskier assets.
If expectations for further Fed tightening increase, crypto could face additional short-term pressure.
U.S. Stocks
Higher interest rates and bond yields can pressure equity valuations, particularly in growth and technology stocks.
However, the strong economy highlighted by Warsh can partially offset this effect, meaning the market reaction will depend on whether investors focus more on economic resilience or tighter financial conditions.
Market Interpretation
The overall message from Warsh was hawkish.
Persistent inflation, a resilient economy, strong employment and financial conditions that do not appear particularly restrictive give the Fed room to maintain tighter policy — and potentially tighten further if inflation fails to improve.
The most important charts to watch now are:
DXY
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield
Gold
$BTC
S&P 500
If the Dollar and Treasury yields continue rising together, pressure on risk assets could increase.
For now, the key question is no longer simply whether inflation is falling.
The market needs to determine how much additional tightening the Fed may be willing to deliver before inflation convincingly returns toward 2%.
What do you expect after Warsh’s hawkish message: another Fed rate hike, or will today’s move be enough?
#FederalReserve