Moses254

Here’s a breakdown of what’s going on and how much weight to put on the claim that Solana, XRP, and Litecoin ETFs now have “100% approval odds” (per a Bloomberg analyst).

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What’s actually being claimed / what changed

1. New SEC “generic listing standards”

The SEC recently approved generic listing standards for spot crypto ETFs.

Under this approach, exchanges (e.g. Nasdaq, NYSE Arca, Cboe) can list certain crypto ETFs that meet standardized criteria without requiring a separate 19b-4 rule change filing for each one.

Because of that, the previous “clock” tied to those 19b-4 filings (which had a deadline component) is now viewed as less relevant or “meaningless” in this context.

Thus, the key shift is procedural: the regulatory pathway is now simplified, which makes ETF approval for more altcoins more feasible (all else equal).

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2. What the Bloomberg analyst is saying

The Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas (along with colleague James Seyffart) previously had estimated high probabilities (90–95 %) for these altcoin (SOL, XRP, LTC) spot ETFs.

With the new regulatory change, Balchunas says that the “odds are really 100% now,” meaning he views approval as almost certain, due to the removal of the main procedural barrier.

He notes that now the only remaining step is to get the S-1 registration statements approved by the SEC’s Division of Corporation Finance.

He also points to filings: e.g. issuers have submitted “amendment #4” for Solana’s S-1, indicating advancement in that process.

He is not guaranteeing an approval (since nothing is fully guaranteed in regulation), but he’s elevating his confidence to near certainty given the new framework.

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The caveats & counterpoints

Even with the shift, “100% odds” should be interpreted carefully. Some things to keep in mind:

1. “Odds” are still subjective forecasts

They reflect confidence but are not guarantees. Many things (legal, political, staff decisions) can intervene.

Analysts can’t force the SEC’s hand; they can only interpret regulatory signals.

2. Regulatory, legal risk remains

The SEC could raise objections on specifics (disclosure, custody, market surveillance).

The new standards reduce one barrier (19b-4 filing), but they do not eliminate all due diligence or internal review.

Some past crypto regulatory moves show reversals or stricter enforcement are possible.

3. Timelines and sequencing

The old deadlines (e.g. Oct 2 for LTC, Oct 10 for SOL, Oct 17 for XRP) were tied to the previous regime. Under the new regime, the SEC could act earlier or later than those dates.

Even if the procedural barrier is lower, coordination among issuers, exchanges, legal teams, and SEC staff all matter.

4. Market expectations & behavior risk

If markets already “price in” expectation of approval, any delay or partial rejection could spark volatility.

There is always a risk of over-optimism.

5. Scope of “approval”

“Approval” here refers to spot ETFs for these cryptocurrencies. It does not necessarily mean every variant (e.g. with staking, derivatives, exotic wrappers) will be accepted.

There may still be conditions or limitations placed on the product structures.

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My take (and what to watch)

I think the Bloomberg analyst’s push to 100% is ambitious, but it’s rooted in a real shift in the regulatory backdrop. The procedural simplification is a strong tailwind for altcoin ETF approvals.

It’s not absurd to expect that some SOL, XRP, LTC spot ETFs will get approved relatively soon, especially those with clean S-1s and strong legal/backing support.

What to watch in the coming days/weeks:

Any SEC announcements or approvals regarding those specific ETFs.

Notices or filings from issuers about S-1 amendments or responses from SEC staff.

Statements from SEC personnel or Commissioners — sometimes internal resistance surfaces even when policy seems favorable.

Market reactions (price, volume) in SOL, XRP, LTC as news flows.

The internet was never really about getting information; it was about moving. There were networks before TCP/IP, but they all spoke different languages. The connection was done by hand, cost a lot, and was only available in one place. The internet didn't come up with communication; it made it easier for people to talk to each other. By doing this, it made information an endless, usable resource.
Polygon is doing the same thing for value.
The global financial system is still in the time before TCP/IP, when it was broken up by rules, jurisdictions, and middlemen. Banks, payment networks, DeFi protocols, and custodians all keep their own capital. There is liquidity in each system, but it doesn't move around easily. Polygon 2.0 is making something that the world of value has always needed: a universal routing layer. A way to send money over the internet.
People only talk about the surface when they say "Polygon scales Ethereum." What Polygon is really building is an economic internet: a protocol stack that lets liquidity, trust, and computation move as easily as data packets do on the internet. It's not just about how fast it is; it's also about how standard it is.
In Polygon 2.0, the AggLayer is like an internet router. A zkEVM rollup, a PoS chain, or a custom CDK deployment are all examples of connected chains. Each one is a local network that is connected to a shared global layer. The AggLayer collects validity proofs, compresses them, and sends them through Ethereum for final verification. But more importantly, it makes sure that all of the chains speak the same language of trust.
That language isn't TCP/IP; it's zk-proof.
Like TCP/IP packets, which carry data in a format that any device can read, Polygon's proofs carry assets, transactions, and computations in a standardized cryptographic language that any chain in the ecosystem can understand. Polygon is now doing for value interoperability what TCP/IP did for data interoperability.
In this model, blockspace, which is the limited computational space of blockchain, becomes the infrastructure layer. But there is a higher layer above it: valuespace. This is the open, aggregated space where proof, liquidity, and identity interact across networks. Blockspace is where things happen, and valuespace is where things get more meaningful.
Think about what happens when you write an email. You don't care what protocol or server sends your message; it just gets there. Polygon's long-term goal is still the same: you shouldn't care which chain processes your stablecoins, RWAs, or liquidity when you move them. You just know that it's verified, composable, and final.
True infrastructure is defined by its simplicity, which makes complexity invisible.
Polygon's change from a single chain to a network of networks is like how the internet's architecture has changed over time. In the early days of the web, computers had to talk to each other manually. Then TCP/IP came along and hid the details, letting networks automatically route traffic. For blockchains, Polygon's AggLayer does the same thing. It makes the proof and settlement process less complicated, so value can move freely between chains.
Every chain in the Polygon ecosystem is like a local intranet, designed to work best for certain tasks like payments, gaming, DeFi, and RWAs. The AggLayer connects them all into one economic network and routes value in the same way that routers route data. It controls not only where transactions go, but also how they are checked, combined, and finished.
The end result is programmable liquidity, which means that value can move between protocols as easily as data packets. Because they all exist in a shared proof environment, stablecoins, tokenized assets, and DeFi primitives can all work together without any problems. It doesn't break up; it flows.
This flow is what turns Polygon from a blockchain network into an economic internet.
To get an idea of how big this is, think about how the internet grew. TCP/IP didn't make communication more centralized; instead, it made it more decentralized by giving everyone a small set of rules to follow. Polygon's AggLayer does the same thing. It doesn't require all chains to follow the same architecture; instead, it lets different types of chains thrive under the same verification. Every new chain adds more data, liquidity, and proof capacity to the network. This creates a positive feedback loop of value density.
This changes the way we think about network effects in terms of money. In a normal blockchain, value builds up vertically, going to just one chain and its token. In Polygon 2.0, value builds up horizontally across all connected chains that use the same proof infrastructure. The same trust economy helps and hurts each chain.
POL is what keeps the economy together. Validators stake POL once to protect the whole network, and in return, they get rewards from every chain that sends value through them. This is multi-chain staking at the protocol level. It is a way to align validators so that they become shared service providers for the whole ecosystem.
It's a model where security, liquidity, and yield are not all the same anymore. The network gets stronger and works better as more chains join. Every new Polygon chain adds capacity and connectivity, just like every new node on the internet makes it stronger.
The effects go far beyond DeFi. When banks like BlackRock and Franklin Templeton tokenize assets on Polygon, they're not just putting money on the blockchain; they're also connecting to a network that routes value. Stripe and Revolut don't just use a cheap blockchain to process payments; they also use the internet's new transport protocol for money.
Infrastructure-grade technology is defined by the shift from using applications to integrating protocols. People don't "use" TCP/IP; they use what it makes possible. Polygon is getting close to that point. People won't say "I used Polygon for payments" anymore. They'll just do business, and Polygon will be the hidden standard behind it all.
That lack of visibility is the best sign of maturity. When infrastructure goes away, it means it's now necessary.
But there is a deeper philosophical point to be made. The internet made it easier for everyone to get information, but not value. The goal of Polygon's architecture is to fill that gap. By routing liquidity, proofs, and governance across a single layer, it's making a world where getting money is as easy and open as getting data.
In this valuespace, capital acts like information: it can be shared, combined, and sent to anyone. A tokenized bond from a bank, a DAO treasury allocation, or a stablecoin remittance can all be sent, checked, and combined into packets of value using the same system. The world's money can finally move as fast as the internet.
And just as the internet changed from linking computers to linking people, Polygon 2.0 will change from linking blockchains to linking economies.
The internet of information and the internet of value will come together in the long run. Data will have value, and value will have data. They will be linked, work together, and happen right away. Polygon's AggLayer and POL are the protocols that will make that work on a large scale.
We won't use the terms "bridging chains" or "liquidity fragmentation" anymore. People will think of those as old-fashioned, like "dial-up modems" or "FTP servers." Instead, we'll talk about bandwidth, throughput, and reliability—terms that are more about infrastructure than ideology.
Polygon 2.0 is no longer a Layer-2. It's the economic internet, where value moves like data, proofs flow like packets, and liquidity has no borders.
It's not creating a new world of cash. It's giving the old one a new medium: a network that finally remembers what the internet was meant to be: open, neutral, and worldwide.

@Polygon #Polygon $POL