甜梦讲币

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Judging that the price momentum is weakening is actually not difficult; you just need to compare the performance of 'this wave' and 'the previous wave' of increases.

In the process of rising, the earliest change is usually not a decline, but the price is unable to rise at a similar position, unable to exceed the previous range.

When the bullish force is sufficient, each wave of attack has several common characteristics: a significant push by the entity, the closing can stabilize above the previous high, and the distance between peaks remains stable or even gradually expands.

Once the strength begins to weaken, these characteristics will change: the amplitude of new highs is significantly shorter than the previous one, the closing after the breakout cannot stabilize above the previous high, and the upper shadow lines have also increased, indicating that the selling pressure encountered during the rise is becoming greater.

These changes may seem subtle, but they are crucial; they indicate that the same buying power can no longer push out the previous increase.

Moreover, as the price approaches the resistance zone, this phenomenon becomes more obvious: the upward space becomes smaller, while the risk increases, and naturally, there are fewer people willing to chase higher prices.

As a result, breakouts are no longer as decisive as in the early stages of the trend, the attack distance shortens, and the intervals between peaks gradually narrow.

This does not necessarily mean that the market is about to reverse, but it indicates that the strength of this trend is not as strong as before, and the winning rate and profit-loss ratio of continuing to chase higher prices will decrease.

ETH

It has almost rebounded according to my thoughts until now, and the price has reached the upper range that I believe.

Ethereum has rebounded by 30% from the bottom of 2700 to 3400, and the rebound structure is complex, fully meeting all the conditions for initial support!

Regarding the judgment of ETH's upper range, I believe it is nearby, with its extreme position around 3660-3700, and I expect there won't be much space for further increases.

My view remains unchanged: Ethereum will gradually move towards decline, and it will drop more than 20% on a certain day to reach something starting with 1!

Many friends do not understand why Luna, LUNC, and USTC have experienced several times of increase in the past few days. The biggest reason is still closely related to the founder Do Kwon. It seems that on the 11th, which is today, he will be receiving sentencing hearings in New York. Therefore, this matter can also be considered as early speculation on sentence reduction expectations. However, after serving his sentence in the United States, he is likely to be extradited back to South Korea, where he will continue to serve several decades.

Currently, from the daily chart perspective, BTC is in a volatile market. The MACD has a bearish crossover, indicating a demand for a rebound. If the trend line is not broken during today’s pullback, there is actually no need to worry; we can buy on the pullback. It is relatively low and consolidating, and we still look for a rebound in the future. The upper resistance is around 94000.
On the 4-hour chart, it is in a box consolidation market. Buy on the pullback near 90000, add positions at 88500, set a stop loss at 87500, and target around 94000.
On the 3-day chart, the MACD has a bullish crossover, indicating a demand for a rebound; buy on the pullback as there is bullish support in the chart pattern. The larger cycle is still downward, and we can short when the rebound reaches key resistance.
The world’s situation ebbs and flows, the cryptocurrency market rises and falls,
It’s not that we lack skills,
Most of it is because we cannot control ourselves, yearning for quick riches.

Newbie, how to earn your first 1 million in the cryptocurrency world?

Many people come in thinking about tens of millions, freedom, and being blessed by the god of wealth.
But experienced players who have survived in the circle know:
The first bucket of gold is the most critical dividing line in the entire journey; it is the initial accumulation.

As long as you can go from 50,000 → 1,000,000,
You have already outperformed 95% of retail investors.

The subsequent millions and tens of millions are just about replication ability.

The first thing: don't think about making "mosquito meat" every day.
You see those people who do tasks for 10u or 20u every day, grabbing a little bit, taking fees,
By the end of the year, if a big contract comes in the opposite direction, it will be wiped out.

Those who can truly grow their capital have never been small-time players throwing daily trades,
But rather seizing 2 to 3 trending markets and rolling over with compound interest.

Practice with small positions usually,
Wait for market confirmation, wait for signal resonance, then push the big guns out.

⸻

So what is a "signal"? (What retail investors lack the most)

1) A long sideways movement after a sharp drop, suddenly surging up in volume.
This is called a "reversal," not a pullback.
The best range for the main force to build positions.

2) Daily line surpasses key moving averages + volume and price rise together.
A recovery in sentiment is the most intuitive bullish signal.

3) No one is arguing online, hot searches are quiet, and retail investors are complaining.
You think no one is watching,
But smart money has already quietly entered the market.

Retail investors are always the last to turn bullish.
You need to learn to anticipate.

There are really very few people in the Chinese community who understand $Night, so let me explain.

$Night is the crown prince project of the Cardano ecosystem, focusing on ZK privacy chains, with a reasonable valuation between 1-3 billion FDV. Cardano, also known as ADA, was once on par with ETH as a public chain but has been hindered by an excessive desire to become a little brother to BTC, creating a public chain that establishes the UTXO technical standard. Over the years, its development has been slow, with slogans flying everywhere, but technical progress has been sluggish, with no VC, no users, only fervent believers who stake ADA.

With this new launch, $Night's basic chips are mostly in the hands of exchanges. Retail investors' Night are all locked up. For example, people like me who are optimistic about Night previously participated in airdrops of 400,000 $Night obtained through substantial ETH and BTC staking, as well as 100,000 $Night mined before the mainnet launch, and all of it is locked up and cannot be accessed. The fastest one can only wait for a month to unlock 20%.

So, it can be said that the fundamentals of $Night are very clear now. It mainly depends on when the whale wants to accumulate.

There are really few people in the Chinese community who understand $Night, so let me explain.

$Night is the prince project of the Cardano ecosystem, focusing on ZK privacy chains, with a reasonable valuation of 1-3 billion FDV. Cardano, also known as ADA, was once on par with ETH as a public chain but has been hindered by its overly halal ambitions to be a little brother to BTC, creating a public chain that sets the UTXO technology standard. Development has been slow over the years, with slogans flying everywhere, but technical progress has lagged, with no VCs, no users, only fervent believers who staked their faith in ADA.

With this new launch, most of the $Night tokens are in the hands of exchanges. Retail investors' $Night tokens are all locked up. For example, people like me who are optimistic about $Night previously participated in a large amount of ETH and BTC staking to obtain 400,000 $Night airdrop tokens, as well as 100,000 $Night mined before the mainnet launch, all locked up and inaccessible. The earliest one can unlock 20% is after a month.

So, the fundamentals of $Night are very clear now. It mainly depends on when the whales want to accumulate.

Bitcoin has returned to the 4-hour oscillation range after the Hassett stimulus, with the range converging, bottoming at 89,300 and topping at 93,000, corresponding to the 4-hour MA120 - MA200.

The price has oscillated within this range for a long time last week; the hourly trend is neither weak nor able to completely reverse the 4-hour downtrend.

The breakthrough will depend on tonight; if the dot plot is loose + Powell's dovish speech, it will break upwards, gradually reversing the 4-hour downtrend. If the dot plot shows insufficient room for rate cuts next year + Powell's hawkish speech, watch for a downward pullback and support pressure!

Here’s a practical overview of how to use the trading strategy signal channel's order book alerts:

Figure 1: Discrepancy between spot and contract markets: Yesterday, around 905, the spot market indicated a large sell order, while the contract market showed a large buy order. At this point, the signals are inconsistent, indicating a divergence in capital; it’s best to hold a wait-and-see approach.

The actual reason is that there was indeed a large sell order of one hundred million on bybit's spot market that remained posted and was ultimately executed, which led to the signal of a sell order in the spot market. As for why this large sell order suddenly appeared on bybit, it’s difficult to know the truth behind it, so we’ll just hold our positions for now.

Figure 2: Consistency between spot and contract markets: In the early morning, when the price rose above 94, both the spot and contract markets simultaneously signaled sell orders. This is a case of resonance; based on historical data, as long as it’s not a strong trend, there will usually be resistance and a pullback at this point, making it an opportune time to enter for speculation.

For contract players, no matter the price position, there will always be those going long and those going short. Relatively smart players often manage to enter later and at key positions, which means they can find a reasonable point for speculation.

SOL
SOL has been weak for a long time, without breaking through 147. In the past, SOL usually changed before BTC, but this time ETH broke through the key pressure first, so tonight it's very likely that SOL will follow suit and break through as well. If it can break through 147.5 and rebound above 141.85-138.85, it will stabilize at 138, then in the next few days it is expected to aim for 154-158.
The 3-day level of SOL has not formed a rebound yet. If it pulls up tonight, it will almost start to take effect. However, when it reaches the pressure point, it still needs to pull back. Low buying can be profitable, and high selling can also work, but one must know at what point to take profit on the pullback, and then reverse to open a buy again.

Tomorrow's Tone: Hawkish Rate Cuts

Focus:
1. Neutral interest rate, how many more rate cuts, expected two times
2. Dot plot, September SEP shows only one rate cut in 26 years, with a 10 to 9 internal vote in the Fed. This time, I think the best scenario is 10 to 9, slightly worse is 11 to 8, or 12 to 7, with most people believing there will only be one rate cut in 26 years.

Currently, the market expects two rate cuts in 26 years, and there will be slight adjustments after the dot plot is released. However, considering the new chair's attitude after taking office and discussions about changing Fed members with Bessen, the impact of the dot plot will be reduced.
The last rate cut during Grandpa Powell's era has come to a perfect conclusion. If there is another rate cut during his term, the issues in the labor market could become significant, and this risk is indeed increasing.

At this stage, the gameplay of different chains for土狗 #memecoin is already very clear!

BSC is the domestic market, while SOL is the international market; this hasn't changed. However, currently, there are more domestic hot topics and fewer international hot topics, so there are naturally more new projects on BSC, especially with 二圣 occasionally coming out to lead the charge, which increases the potential for profit.

BSC = Domestic PVP nuclear bomb zone

With one shout from 二圣, thousands of troops charge in, and news IPs can be completed in just a few hours. There are many projects, they rise quickly and fall quickly; just half an hour after the $mubarakah surge, it doubled because there are many domestic newcomers, and there is no concept of structure or faith. The old projects are especially quiet, making it hard to see any fluctuations.

SOL = Douyin traffic harvester

The projects launched on the SOL chain are mostly high-traffic Douyin projects. The big shots in the Chinese area are all focusing on BSC, while SOL is relatively quiet. Although liquidity is weak, continuity is slightly stronger, with the survival cycle of small projects lasting longer than BSC. The probability of big projects playing the second or third stages is also high, and the rhythm of $Franklin, which kills one day and pulls the next, is very stable.

In short, BSC is currently about quantity over quality, while SOL focuses on small quality without quantity. Brothers, choose based on your own preferences; don’t rush blindly. When playing with dogs, there is no steady time. It’s better to secure profits.

$eth has been performing quite strong! In the past two weeks, it has rebounded from 2.9k to around 3.3k! It seems that various major institutions are going to buy the dip on eth!

Looking ahead, this short-term wave will at least reach around 3.5k! It should happen quickly, but in the medium to long term, I still expect a decline. Because December in previous years has generally been a garbage market!

If you can grasp the market rhythm, you will definitely make a fortune and have a prosperous year; if you can't grasp it, you'll lose everything.

According to Bitcoin's data, the turnover rate has decreased, which likely means everyone is waiting for the Federal Reserve. A low turnover rate is a good sign, indicating that investors' sentiments are starting to stabilize. If the turnover rate remains high, it suggests that short-term investors are dominating, and the market sentiment is not ideal.
Currently, the chip structure is also very stable, and no signs of collapse have been observed. The upcoming fluctuations could be the most distressing in December, with the U.S. interest rate meeting followed by Japan's interest rate meeting, and then a large amount of data will be released. This December may not be easy to get through.

ETH Takes the Lead
1. Although BTC has not effectively stabilized at 94000, ETH has fully broken through 3220
2. ETH/BTC has emerged from a downward trend and after sufficient adjustment, this wave of ETH/BTC is expected to exceed the previous high of 0.043 and set a new record
3. Expectations of interest rate cuts and QE restart will lead funds to shift towards high-risk assets, which is favorable for ETH, optimistic about ETH returning to 4000+

Three platform coins

BNB: The support at 873~830 has provided two 10% rebounds, and there is still a chance for another between 830~815, while the orders at 745~730 remain unchanged.

OKB: The support at 111~106 has also been reached, but due to the previous overheating, it has led to excessive drawdown. Orders can be placed at 78~73, and other points will not be updated.

BGB: The support at 3.4 has also been reached, providing a local rebound, but constrained by structure, low long positions are still reserved. Orders can be placed at 3.01~2.92, and 2.5~2.3 can also be placed, in order.

Note: The above points are just reserved and may not necessarily be reached, but if they are reached, they are actionable.

After many days, the insider whale struck again on 10·11, is there hope for the bulls this time?

Currently, this address holds about 70,000 $ETH, with an average price of $ 3,068, worth approximately $217 million.

I have to say:
If a person has insider information and can make a few million with just a finger move, then he most likely... won't do it just once.

$BTC (2025-12-9)

The supply and demand support below is effective (around 89613). You can pay attention to the long opportunities near this position. If it breaks this range, do not easily attempt to go long in the short term～

Operation strategy:
Long: around 89911
Stop loss: below 89374
Take profit: around 91584

BSC is the easiest chain to make money this year, the only downside is that there hasn't been a decent community meme that has emerged. Every day they shout about building, yet they rarely support community memes, they are afraid to take risks, and they are fundamentally afraid to build. In the end, all that results from building is taking over and losing money.

I hope that in the future, BSC can have a truly opportunity that belongs to builders.