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我讲一个最笨、但最稳的炒币方法。

这方法我从几年前就开始用。
我试过各种花里胡哨的策略，
最终能让我持续稳定盈利的，
就是这个——
笨，但有效。

第一步：只做强势币，不碰逃命币

把过去 11 天内上过涨幅榜 的币加进自选。
记住一点：
连续 3 天以上下跌的，直接剔除。
这种币大资金已经撤了，再强也是假象。

第二步：月线 MACD 金叉，只看趋势方向

打开 K 线图，
不看分时、不看 4 小时，
只看月线 MACD 是否金叉。
金叉代表长线趋势向上。
逆势做多，永远是自杀。

第三步：日线只盯 60 日线，回踩放量就重仓

切到日线，
不要指标堆满屏，只留一条 60 均线。
只要币价回调到 60 日线附近，
出现放量 K 线，就重仓进场。

不是小仓试探，
是有把握、有逻辑的那种重仓。

第四步：严格按 60 日线处理，绝不含糊

进场后只看一个标准：
在 60 日线之上就拿着，跌破就卖。

操作分成三段：

1️⃣
涨幅超过 30%，卖 1/3

2️⃣
涨幅超过 50%，再卖 1/3

3️⃣
最关键：
如果你刚买入，第二天突然出现黑天鹅，
币价直接跌破 60 日线——必须全走。

没有侥幸，没有等待，没有幻想。

卖了不丢人，
能否赚钱从来不看一次操作，
而看你能否保证下次还有子弹。

为什么这个方法稳？

因为“月线趋势 + 日线纪律”，
能让你避开绝大部分大跌。
跌破 60 日线的概率本身就不高，
真正拉不开差距的，是你的执行力。

行情会变，人性不变。
真正能活下来的，都是那些
能执行、敢止损、稳节奏的人。

最后一句：

你看到的风险，可能是机会；
你以为的机会，也可能是陷阱。
市场的本质不是和 K 线博弈，
而是在和自己的贪婪与恐惧博弈。

能做到“不死”，
才能做到“盈利”。

eth：周线boll下轨线2852附近和4小时ema30（2857）是当前最大压力。今早刚好触及2857就回踩下来，暂时振幅不大，2770-2750是最近的支撑点。再往上2871-2892是强压力（3063-2620这个波段的0.618位置是2893）。所以短线上进入2850-2882皆可介入空单。2892如果再突破不了，反弹结束。 ​​​

币圈的币种大致可以分为三类：

1️⃣
强庄题材币：
这类的基本面较好，通常有机构支持或大z禁介入。在大盘暴跌时，这类的跌幅相对较小，震荡是关键特征。一旦大盘回暖，它们通常会首先恢复并拉升。

2️⃣
山寨空气币：
这类币基本面几乎不存在，长期缺乏z禁参与，可能出现十几天以上的持续下行或横盘，成交量长期低迷。这些币无法通过量价关系进行有效预测，短期内翻倍吸引新手或冒险者追入，但随后往往迅速回落，从此沉寂无声。

3️⃣
介于前两者之间的币：
这类的基本面较好、一般或仅有噱头，机构不时会进行吵作，但其持续性不强。一旦吸引到足够的关注，往往又会隐匿起来。

自己对照一下你手里的币看看是什么类型的。想跟着我选对币种吗？

btc: The current price is near the strong resistance level of 88125. This position is at the lower Bollinger Band of the 5-day line, the middle Bollinger Band of the 8-hour line, and also the 1-day EMA7 (88150), a convergence point of triple pressure, which indicates a sideways movement is about to begin. Short positions can only be taken at low levels between 86125-85555; if it breaks below 85000, long positions should be abandoned.

Above 88100, the next significant resistance is the middle Bollinger Band of the 12-hour line at 90200 and the lower Bollinger Band of the weekly line near 90600. The range from 88100 to 90600 is the extreme range for a rebound at the 1-day line level.

Calculated the adjustments of BTC on a monthly basis over the past few years!

If the bull market trend is still intact, the typical adjustment range is between 30-40%. If the trend reverses, the adjustment may exceed 50%. Currently, the highest adjustment has already reached 36%.

At the same time, looking at the adjustment time, three months is generally considered normal, and now only half of that time has passed. Therefore, I believe that in the upcoming month and a bit, there will be a major bottom fluctuation, between 75,000 and 80,000, and 80,000 to 88,000. If there is a rate cut in December, it will break through; if not, it will decline and fluctuate below 80,000.

Regardless, whether there is a rate cut in December will not determine the trend. After all, continuous rate cuts are inevitable, just a matter of time, and the rate cut next year will be stronger than this year, leading to a more significant market effect. I believe that 126,000 is definitely not the peak of this round of BTC; we will see good market conditions by Q1 at the earliest or Q2 at the latest.

From another perspective, even if you think we are in a bear market, following the past rhythm, after three consecutive months of decline, there should be a decent rebound. This is something you can't miss!

eth: 2850 has become the maximum pressure. There will be 2 more accelerations of decline next week. Positions can be added for shorting between 2770-2798-2828.

Support points below: After a pullback to 2666 and 2626, part of the profits can be taken, and then after breaking below 2600, target to take profits in batches at 2528, 2482, 2440. The rebounds in between mainly focus on small-level rebounds in 15 and 30 minutes, shorting at the upper Bollinger band position and adding to short positions. In the future, when it drops to 2440-2372, do not short blindly; wait for a rebound to 2580-2626 before adding positions. After breaking below 2330, we will directly see 2112-2050, with no strong support within these 300 points.

The BTC daily level rebound still shows no signs, so the limit of the rebound is restricted to below the 12-hour level. The highest point of the 12-hour rebound is the 12-hour EMA7, corresponding to the point of 87150. Therefore, I determine that this is already the ceiling of the BTC rebound. In other words, above 88000 is the current strongest resistance. Without a super favorable stimulus, it is basically impossible to reach here, so the defense for shorting can basically hold strong here. This point is similar to the first phase bottom (when BTC rebounded from 88800 to 93850, it was mentioned that the defense should be at 94250). Essentially, it is a case of breaking support and turning it into resistance, which has already established a major tone for shorting after a rebound. Without holding any short positions, do not easily catch what you consider to be low entries for long positions. Without a profit cushion from high short positions, going long alone can easily lead to being trapped, and the cost of correcting mistakes is high.
The 12-hour level rebound has not yet occurred. Looking at the 8-hour level, the high point of the 8-hour rebound is 86200, and this rebound has not formed either. Looking at the 6-hour level, the rebound high point is 85500, while the rebound for the 4-hour level is 84800, and the rebound high points for the 3-hour and 2-hour levels are 84700 and 84565, respectively. Currently, we are within the rebound range of the 2-4 hour levels, so today it will not even stabilize at 84500.
Therefore, shorting at highs is very simple; entering shorts at the rebound between 84600-85500 is advisable, with 86200 as a backup for adding to shorts. For 87150 and above, it is better not to look at it for now, as the rebound is likely to take effect, and it has not yet upgraded to this level of rebound before starting to drop again.
Last night, it dropped all the way to 80600, near the 80000 barrier. The next step after breaking 80000 is to still look at the first support level below, which is 78800-78200. The rebound remains conservatively seen at 83850-84250. After breaking through here, the next important support is this year's February to April weekly level adjustment bottom: 74600. Many people believe that this is still the bottom of the current round of adjustment, but I have clearly determined that it is unlikely to still be the bottom here. When the market reaches 61800, I will interpret the logic of this step and the basis for the K-line movement.

ETH Small Box Fluctuation
Intra-day short-term ETH oscillation within the range of 2673-2781;
Left side ambush short at 2781, with a defense at 2831, and targets at 2730 and 2680;
Low long ambush at 2673, with a defense at the previous low of 2619, and targets at 2727 and 2759 ​​​

BTC周线跌破MA60均线
2021年上轮牛市跌破60均线，确认熊市
但由于大幅度乖离，会反弹回补均线
结论:可以认为目前已经开始熊市，但由于空头持续的下跌，大幅度的乖离均线未来几周会反弹回补均线
同时，昨天多头量能开始出现，远超之前的量，进一步推出反弹的可能性加大。
现货考虑买入5成以上仓位 ​​​

At this point, the most sorry ones are the family, right?
🤣
Yesterday, it was just a little short of breaking 80000, and then after going up, the dovish comments from the Federal Reserve came. I have to say, it's a wonderful journey.

1. $BTC dropped to a low of around 80800, and has now rebounded to around 85500. With the expectation of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve coming back, the weekend is approaching. Can we sing for a while?

2. $ETH was close to breaking 2600 at its lowest point and has now rebounded to around 2780. Recently, ETH treasury companies have been constantly selling ETH to buy back stocks, and BMNR has now surpassed BlackRock to become the largest holder;

3. $SOL was close to breaking 120 at its lowest point and has now rebounded to around 129. Recently, DAT treasury has been buying, and it seems to be the strongest one;

alpha+合约就是控筹的艺术？

不管是light也好，还是臭名昭著的 $H 也好，都是反撸社区才能拉盘。

回馈给早期贡献者还是做好拉盘自己吃利润或者防止上线就是倾销似乎成了三角矛盾。

就 $APR 而言，kol轮发了，有盈利，要点赞吧。

空投也是发了，确实不多，要点赞吧。

有错吗？也有，女巫没做好，产生了抛售。

你是项目方，就你利益而言，你其实让了不少给早期支持的，也拉了盘，只是拉不动了，最直接的办法是弃盘慢慢卖？

他没有。

@aPriori 已大幅降低在 Monad 主网上解锁空投额度的要求，让那些真正参与并耐心等待的用户，可以更容易地领取并解锁自己的代币。

Monad 主网上线后的第二次空投向 Monad 社区追加发放与生态激励会在后续快速更新具体规则。

你应该还有印象是monad上线之初的空投之大，包括我领了4w多个。

apr选择的是绑定monad生态，回馈monad，在monad上线之初。

我可以去申讨他防女巫的水平不中，却要感叹他死守生态回补主链的格局。

而不带锁的回馈，我可能还会空一下，这是交易。

团队还在做事，我在观察，这是勉励。

The weekly price has reached the middle track of the ASR channel. As long as the closing price this week closes above 85000, the support at the middle track here can be considered valid!

Don't follow the crowd shouting 'I need to escape'; it may well be that the short-term targets have been hit, and we might see some consolidation or a rebound!

If you want to go long, currently you can only wait for a right-side signal; do not enter the market without a bottom structure;

If you want to go short, it's best to build a position at a very low multiple. There will definitely be a rebound in the future, and the main purpose of holding a low-multiple short position is not to make money, but to prevent yourself from impulsively going long on the left side...

After the surge, the structure and logic of ABC correction waves

1. Wave A —— Rapid drop: from frenzy to awakening (currently)

Technical characteristics:
• K line turns from bullish to bearish, usually showing the first significant large bearish candle
• Volume expands, indicating that funds are concentrated in selling
• Trading activity decreases
• Indicators show significant divergence (MACD, RSI sharply turning after high-level stagnation)

Capital behavior:
• Institutions accelerate profit-taking during this phase
• Retail investors who bought at high levels are confused and hesitate to sell

Typical emotions:
• "Why did it drop suddenly? Is it a washout?"
• "It has been rising for so long, a pullback is normal."
• "I won’t sell; I’ll wait for a rebound."

Essence of Wave A: It is the first time the market realizes that the uptrend has ended, but emotions remain immersed in the memories of the past bull market.

2. Wave B —— Illusory rebound: from luck to fantasy (early next month)

Technical characteristics:
• A rebound starts from the low point of Wave A, but the rebound strength is relatively weak
• Many times the rebound reaches previous key resistance levels (moving averages, trend lines, Fibonacci 0.382–0.618)
• Volume shrinks, lacking strength
• K line oscillates upward, lacking momentum

Capital behavior:
• The main force uses retail investors' "break-even sentiment" to continue distributing chips
• The market seems to be moving up, but institutions are quietly selling

Typical emotions:
• "It turns out to be just a washout; the market will continue!"
• "I won’t sell! I still want to wait for a breakthrough to a new high!"
• "If it rises a bit more, I’ll break even."

Essence of Wave B: A wave that tempts the crowd, a denial of emotions against the trend, the last fantasy of the market.

3. Wave C —— Main decline phase: from hesitation to panic to despair

Technical characteristics:
• Most of the time, Wave C is a five-wave decline (advancing structure)
• The decline is often greater than Wave A, and the speed is faster
• Trading volume significantly increases
• Directly breaks the low point of Wave A, triggering panic selling
• Ultimately, in panic, the volume exhausts and forms a bottom

Capital behavior:
• Late-stage buyers are forced to cut losses
• Strong funds begin to accumulate at low levels
• Institutions slowly complete the next round of layout

Typical emotions:
• "Why is it dropping again? Didn’t they say there would be a rebound?"
• "It’s over; this market is finished..."
• "Forget it, I’ll cut losses."
• "I won’t play anymore in the future."

Essence of Wave C: Liquidation wave, squeezing fantasies out of the market, washing away all floating stocks, creating space for the next trend.

Recently, the market has been continuously declining, but the positions remain at a high level. However, just now, a 15-minute downtrend led to a rapid decline in positions. It seems that a small portion of the bulls have surrendered. Additionally, this is the POC position from the fluctuations in April. It is believed that there may be a brief support here. If the U.S. market continues to decline, there may be a significant rebound by the end of Saturday.

In recent years, every time a risk arises, Bitcoin has always been the first to bear the brunt. Looking back, in December 2017, Bitcoin peaked, and in January 2018, the U.S. stock market peaked. In November 2021, Bitcoin peaked, and by the end of December that same year, the U.S. stock market peaked. When institutions withdraw assets, they always withdraw the highest-risk assets first and then gradually pull out, so the U.S. stock market likely won't enjoy its success for too long. The most important internal reason is the significant decrease in interest rate cut expectations in December + the potential economic recession in the U.S.

Bitcoin often hits bottom first after a drop, so there is no need to panic at this position. Historically, after each major liquidation, the market tends to continue to trade sideways or correct for about 8 weeks. It has already been 6 weeks, so both in terms of time and space, it is possible to enter a regular investment phase. The more it drops, the more I buy. I plan to continue accumulating in the range of 75000-85000, unloading the positions between 11-12.5 that were offloaded. A drop means earning coins, and when it rises, the money will naturally increase.

When the market rises
These institutions are ancestors, saviors, and gods

When the market falls
These institutions are grandsons, vampires, and demons

When the market rises, they are the catalysts driving the trend
Similarly, when the market falls, they are the biggest selling pressure in the market ​​​

base创始人亲自下场也起不来，不应该啊，这起不来，baseAPP怎么起飞，base链怎么起飞，交易量太小了！