甜梦链

The daily MACD is about to return to zero; generally, it will rebound from here. On the surface, it looks like 150 will not hold, but as long as BTC does not drop below 103000, 150 will not be lost. Therefore, it is definitely not advisable to pursue here. The maximum short-term pressure is 162. Yesterday, I suggested entering a short position between 157.5 and 159.25; this is the safe place to short. Just last night, the highest rebound reached 157.85, so if it goes up again, it can still be entered. If 150 is broken, then we need to go long around 146.25. The first time it breaks, it will inevitably rebound strongly.

$DOGE

The monthly structure is bullish, currently respecting order flow,
at the monthly BPR receiving price reaction, in the process of obtaining internal liquidity.
In other words, the altcoin segment for $DOGE is basically coming to an end for now, and we need to wait for accumulation before observing again.

The daily chart is also a bullish structure, with the price currently in the discount zone and touching D+FVG. There is a bullish bias here, but entry needs to wait for a CHOCH/MSS to appear on the 1H before intervening.

The decline caused by this daily MACD death cross is best assessed by observing whether the daily MACD can hold above the zero line, in order to determine the level of this decline;

Pay attention ≠ immediately go all in, diodes are not suitable for my tweets, please unfollow.

Now that we see a decline, it's going to 80,000, and then tomorrow there will be a zigzag rebound in the third phase, indicating that the bull market is coming back.

Did I mention that once this level starts to adjust, give it 1-2 weeks of observation time?

TELL ME, LOOK IN MY EYES! Did I mention it? I wish I could just find words for bullish or bearish in my tweets, and then go all in immediately! Time, space, and prerequisites are all ignored.
What is clear is that now is the first trend reversal and adjustment after breaking the previous high; a direct drop is unlikely, but a retracement to wipe out stop losses for short positions is very likely;

For shorting, look for a key support level that has effectively broken down, for bottom fishing, look for a key support level that has held.

Shorting is for coins that are falling behind, while bottom fishing is for coins that are recovering or continuing the trend.

If you don’t understand, it’s best not to act during this chaotic period; if you don’t understand, don’t trade, you won’t lose.

I definitely can't compete with others in verbal sparring,
but I should rank among those who can draw during verbal sparring. $COOKIE

The purple area in the diagram is the key structural support zone (front low accumulation + dense trading range) and also the point of significant surge during this rise.

During the price increase, a large imbalance area was left (red area).

Currently, the price has reached the imbalance area, but the 1H structure has not shown choch/mss.

If you want to buy, I suggest waiting for the right side; of course, long-term value investors are a different story.

However, if it directly breaks through the purple line below, then caution is advised.

The turnover rate on Saturday surged significantly, exceeding 25 million units. As seen in the red text in the image, it is still a short-term exit of chips in the past month, mainly from the high-priced chips bought between 162-176.

Although there has been some exit of longer-term chips in other ranges, it is very minimal, perhaps only a few hundred thousand units. The medium to long-term holding chips remain relatively stable.

Chips have shifted to the range of 150-160 (as shown in the blue text in the image), with temporary short-term support around 150-152.

The evening of Sunday and the daytime tomorrow will be a low liquidity period, especially with the impact of events in the US stock market time zone tonight. If the news is good, BTC may rebound; if not, it may continue to drop. SOL will follow.

For SOL, the overall situation is still weak, and there isn't much independent narrative. As mentioned yesterday, it is still oscillating around 150-160. The range of 144-150 can hold temporarily.
Of course, we still look at BTC's performance.

Another WCT with a decline of over 80%

The trends of altcoins have little technical analysis to speak of; they are just blatant scams and deceptions. When people stop buying, the manipulators will push the price up for you to see. When more funds flow in, they will quickly take the money and run. This is not just said about WCT, but almost all altcoins.

I also don't know what is worth analyzing in this market of altcoins. The KOLs (Key Opinion Leaders) mostly promote CX coins backed by investors; the rest are lifeless. It's better to honestly stick to Bitcoin and focus on your own small plot of land than anything else.

Just remember a dead truth: do not touch what many people publicly promote, do not touch what keeps rising, and do not touch what does not fit the life-line trading strategy...

Today is Sunday, and liquidity will be better compared to Saturday. Continuing to look down, there will be a rebound at 102000, but the strength of the rebound will not be very high. Both spot and contract CVD are in a selling state. The support level below is still at 100800; if it breaks, then look at 9700.

It is very clear that the number of users going short now is greater than those going long. The market will go back and forth, without a particularly large bearish sentiment that would cause a sudden drop; instead, it will decline slowly like a small knife cutting meat.

The main focus is on the afternoon at 4:30, 6:00, and 8:30.

Is it time to buy the dip in BTC? The direct answer is: not really recommended.

The recent significant drop has seen a decrease in the main contract data, with no signs of stopping the decline or increasing holdings, indicating that no large funds are entering to buy. Therefore, whether this position can hold is questionable.

So if you want to buy the dip, it's better to be cautious and wait a little longer to observe. From my personal perspective, 101403 is an important support level, and we should see if there is any main capital accumulation at that point.

What's the most ruthless way to make money in the crypto world?
Just one word: Roll!
I've seen too many people roll to 990,000, only to end up with a zero on the last trade...
This thing is a thousand times more thrilling than hoarding coins—either you get rich overnight or it goes straight to zero. I was so poor I only had 1,000 yuan for food, and I managed to roll it to 100,000 in half a month with this trick. To put it simply: 100 times leverage + profit reinvestment + relentless focus on one direction.
I started with 300 dollars (2,000 yuan) to test the waters, opening only 10 dollars in 100 times contracts each time. If I make 1%, I double it; I withdraw half of the profits and roll the other half. As long as I can get it right 11 times in a row, 10 dollars can turn into 10,000! But 90% of people fail at these points: they don't take profits when they should and want more, they can't accept losses and increase their positions, or they keep changing directions and get slapped in the face.
My own iron rule is: cut losses immediately when wrong, stop after 20 consecutive mistakes; withdraw as soon as I make 5,000 dollars, never get carried away. Last year, there was a big market wave; I started with 500 dollars and rolled it to 500,000 in 3 days—but I waited 4 months before that without moving. This thing is all about seizing the opportunity in one go, and usually playing dead to avoid itchy hands.
Some ask if they can roll now? Check the market: Is there big volatility? Is the trend one-sided? Can you resist the temptation to eat the tail instead of just the body? If the answers are all "yes," then go for it; if you're still hesitating, it means you haven't been taught enough by the market.
Remember, rolling positions is a life-or-death game; either you enjoy the high life, or you have to work hard. If you don't have the right mindset and discipline, it's better to hoard coins honestly and not become a casualty!

This wave of market makes me feel very similar to last year in March and April, when BTC broke the new high of 73k in mid-March, then pulled back to 60k, and returned to 72k in early April. However, many altcoins entered a long-term downtrend after peaking at the end of March. Currently, it seems that many altcoins peaked between May 10 and May 15. Even if BTC sets a new high on May 22, most altcoins have not returned to their highs.

In the previous wave, the strongest WIF increased more than tenfold in a month, while the relatively strong coins in this wave have shown similar performance from their bottoms, such as Moodeng 17 times, Fartcoin 8 times, Virtual 6 times, and many medium and small market cap altcoins have also seen increases of 2-5 times. However, from the sentiment on Twitter, people are still eagerly awaiting the altcoin season.

The reason behind this is probably still due to the disconnect between BTC and altcoins. The anticipated altcoin season may be triggered by a clear signal of Bitcoin reaching new highs, leading to a broad increase. The reality is that the price increases of most altcoins had already completed before Bitcoin reached new highs, and what remains is only a continued decline amidst Bitcoin's ongoing fluctuations.

Recently, $ETH has been experiencing continuous positive news and it feels like it can't be contained.
1. In May, Ethereum completed a major upgrade called 'Pectra', which increased the maximum staking limit for each validator from 32 ETH to 2048 ETH, aiming to improve network efficiency and simplify operations for large stakers.
2. The SEC clarified the non-securities nature of staking: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued guidance stating that 'protocol staking activities' do not constitute securities transactions.
3. Several large banks in the U.S. have begun participating in Ethereum staking activities. This trend indicates an increasing acceptance of crypto assets by traditional financial institutions, potentially further driving the mainstream adoption of ETH.
4. ETF provider REX Shares has submitted an application to launch staking ETFs based on Ethereum and Solana. These ETFs adopt a C-corporation structure and may be launched in the coming weeks.

A noteworthy signal regarding BTC's spot premium emerged over the weekend:

During the price drop from 106k to 103k, the spot premium showed a continuous increase, indicating sustained spot demand entering the market and a large number of futures shorts opening positions, perhaps accompanied by futures longs closing positions;

This situation represents a standard divergence between spot and futures, thus serving as a reminder of the short-term risks of going short!

Since the left-side range has indeed been broken, from a trend structure perspective, it should indeed be bearish. However, the internal liquidity of the market is attempting to negate this structural break, leading to simultaneous rises in both price and premium;

Therefore, for bulls, it may be wise to choose to wait and not go long, but for bears, caution is needed to avoid being pulled back to 106.6k for a stop loss after going short...

Since last December, there has been significant capital accumulating ETH at the bottom, and it continues to buy even now. The concentration of chips, represented by the Herfindahl index, has reached 1.2, with the historical high being 3.

In simpler terms, a higher concentration of chips does not necessarily mean a significant price increase, but it is favorable for a price surge. A dispersed concentration of chips is certainly not conducive to a large price increase. Moreover, the accumulation of chips is still ongoing,

it may take time to reach the historical high. Recently, the ETH ETF staking has been approved, which is a positive factor in the medium to long term. In the short term, we still need to see how BTC performs. This means that if BTC continues to maintain a rebound and high-level fluctuations, there may be a chance for ETH to rise. If BTC goes down, ETH will not be able to hold up either.

Additionally, its ecosystem tokens SSV, MKR, and ARB have shown signs of increasing chip concentration in the last three months.
There may be funds gathering chips to make moves. However, the current drop is due to BTC pulling it down, so we need to keep watching in the short term. If BTC does not perform well, ETH's chances of rising may not be very optimistic.
In the medium to long term, for example, in the next major upward wave, we can pay attention to the chip concentration situation.

The crypto play involves high control of the market, price surges, positive news releases, FOMO, then distributing chips, and then gathering chips again, a cycle.
Essentially, we need to first gather chips, after all, no one is a philanthropist.

BTC is expected to start declining from 110k; the current strategy and target of 100k remain unchanged. However, this is not the right time for blind long or short positions, as we have entered a consolidation zone. It's essential to trade long or short at the extremes of the range, as the risk-reward ratio in the middle is not favorable.
After closing my short position at 104800, I missed a bit of the move, but I believe it's not suitable to chase shorts here anymore because there is currently support around 103k, which is the 0.786 retracement of this rally.
⚠️ If there is a rebound here, we could see 1062, with a maximum of 1076.
⚠️ If it breaks below 103, we could see 100, or even touch 99.x, but it’s unlikely to go down to 98 in the short term.
⚠️⚠️ Overall, it’s suitable to go long near 100, while 105 or higher is suitable for shorting in the short term. Engage in range trading. Avoid trading in the middle.
Looking back, two days ago I added to my short position at the rebound high point of 108800 in the group. It feels quite comfortable now after heavily shorting from the high.

From the perspective of the risk-reward ratio in trading, I personally believe this position is worth the gamble, so I took a low-leverage long position on several altcoins.

For those looking to bottom-fish at this position, you can choose a cryptocurrency you are optimistic about or familiar with, and set your stop-loss at the previous low point on the daily chart.
Then, work backwards from the stop-loss amount you can accept to determine your position size.

All anxiety, fear, and hesitation actually stem from not having a clear stop-loss amount or from the position size exceeding what you can bear.

In terms of my personal trading, if the positions I opened today for bottom-fishing all hit the stop-loss, then the return rate for May would drop back to 40%-50%. This is a stop-loss amount I can accept, so I proceed with it.

Many people often want a simple answer: are you bullish or bearish?

This is not the core of trading. Trading is an art of candlestick patterns and a mathematics of position risk control.

I hope you can gradually understand this statement.

btc 103000, eth 2473, sol 152, all are hanging by a thread. Today, the bulls basically had little resistance, and it's the weekend, preparing for a breakdown.

sol always takes the lead, first retracing to 0.382 at 152.5; eth needs to retrace to 0.382, which requires reaching 2252, still a distance away, and if it drops and breaks below 2400 in the meantime, it will be quick. btc needs to retrace to 0.382, which requires reaching 101450, the next support level.

My average selling price for launchcoin is at 230m, and since then I've only made small positions trying to catch the bottom, all strictly with stop losses. Recently, I haven't chased any coins with large positions, so the money I've earned has only seen a slight pullback.

Moderate greed and controlling drawdowns are the two most important lessons the market has taught me in my one and a half years of on-chain experience. A few of the most impressive lessons:

1. I made 800k on $bome, and I had already taken profits, but when trading on bn spot, I bought back in (at that time, my trading experience could be said to be a blank slate) and the profits pulled back more than 50%.

2. I made 250k on the $fight on the eth chain, and then most of it went to chase the high on $miggles, resulting in a 70% pullback in profits.

3. I made 180k on the $neiro on the sol chain and ended up putting it all into pvp, losing it all within a month.

Some obvious truths are understood by everyone, but only by truly experiencing it and getting beaten can one genuinely comprehend.

Bitcoin has continued to decline after breaking below the 20-day moving average, currently just 1000 points away from support level 1. Once it breaks below support level 1, it will signal the complete end of this wave of increase since early April. This wave of increase

Once it breaks below support level 1, it will signal the complete end of this wave of increase since early April.

In this case, since the peak of this wave of increase is very close to the peak in January, the probability of Bitcoin's fifth wave being a double top is significantly higher than that of a terminating inclined triangle. This could very likely mean that the bull market is over.

Therefore, it is crucial to closely monitor whether support level 1 will be broken in the next few days.

The pancake has come down from the top, and in terms of its shape, it can already be considered quite complete; the cost-effectiveness of shorting here is not high;

The green line drawn behind is just a hypothetical scenario for shorting, making a straight adjustment with a single sawtooth, and continuing the bull market is also a possibility; it has now reached the support range of the previous consolidation, so the possibility of going straight down from here is not particularly high;

So here I am prepared to observe and discuss further.

Dog Selection Tips:
1. First, eliminate any scams, fishing, frequently changing usernames, and those who often post nonsense; just don't look at them;
2. Look at the narrative; trends are constantly changing. Don't pay attention to narratives of news that just came out, they are worthless. Focus on recent hot topics and follow that narrative. Many in AI are scammers; recognizing this requires some technical knowledge and learning more about AI. This step is actually the hardest—seeing at first glance whether the technology is reliable and if there is market potential. Most people lack this because it requires deep technical knowledge, a broad perspective, and repeated experiences with the same projects. Very few can master this; you need to continuously learn and evolve.
3. Position size selection; ideally, do not exceed 2% of your holdings. Use small funds for trial and error, and once you have certainty, bring in larger funds, but overall do not exceed one-fifth of your total capital.
4. Stop loss; many who run away do so by cutting losses in time. Holding on is the hardest part because of the shortcomings of the second point. Many people do not know how high it will rise, which makes it difficult. If you want to succeed, you must focus on learning relevant knowledge, read industry news, conduct thorough research, and practice. This all takes time and experience; practice makes perfect. The next time you see it, you'll know its worth.
5. Getting rich quickly is very difficult; it's all about luck. Everyone should try small amounts first. If it feels difficult, really don't continue; this is not something the average person can handle. If you get lucky once and think you are capable, later on, due to the shortcomings of the second point, you will definitely lose everything. Repeatedly proving one thing: without strength, it's all luck.
6. Exiting this market is your only choice. When a blind cat encounters a dead mouse and gets rich once, decisively exit the circle and don't come back—listen to this advice.