Crypto汉哥

前几天还猛冲 9.6 万让人直呼 “牛回”，结果转眼就卡在高位不动了，不少朋友私信问我是不是该跑路，今天咱就掏心窝子跟大家扒一扒，这波行情到底藏着多少 “坑” 和 “机会”。​
先从大环境聊起，最近整个市场都在盯着美联储那点事儿，虽说大家都盼着货币政策能松点，但现实是预期越升温，风险资产反而越难受。就像咱们加密圈子，最近明显感觉钱变少了，连矿工都开始 “佛系”—— 玻璃诺德指标一路降温，说明人家也不想硬扛。更糟的是，美股科技股最近也掉链子，本来大家还靠它撑点信心，现在连带着加密市场的情绪也跟着往下走，BTC 短期想抬头，确实有点难。​
再看技术面，这才是今天的重点干货！BTC 在 95800 到 96700 这个区间，简直就是 “天然拦路虎”—— 一方面这里是历史成交密集区，之前套牢的人太多，一涨到这儿就有人想解套；另一方面，这个位置刚好卡在 1.618 斐波那契扩展位上，懂技术的都知道，这可是强压力位。最近反弹的时候，明显能感觉到劲儿越来越弱，4 小时级别 MACD 量柱越缩越短，RSI 还在超买区出现了顶背离 —— 简单说就是价格在涨，指标却在跌，这种 “不同步” 往往是回调的前兆。更关键的是，94500 这个支撑位要是守不住，很可能会触发一波技术性卖盘，到时候跌幅可能就不止一点点了。​
说到操作，我得提醒大家别太冲动。如果想进场，建议在 95800 到 96700 这个区间分批建仓，这样能利用阻力带的波动降低持仓成本，别一股脑全冲进去，不然很容易被 “套牢”。止损一定要设在 97300，要是真突破这个位置，说明短期趋势可能反转了，该认亏就得认亏，别抱着 “等反弹” 的幻想硬扛。止盈方面，第一个目标先看 94500，这既是心理关口，也是之前的缺口支撑；要是能顺利到这儿，再看 93500 和 92500，这两个位置分别对应趋势线和筹码真空区，大概率会有支撑。​
最后必须强调风险控制！最近美股波动大，链上也时不时有大额转账，这些都可能影响 BTC 价格。建议大家轻仓博弈，别把所有钱都砸进来，更别逆势扛单 市场永远不缺机会，保住本金才是最重要的。​
看到这儿的朋友，说明都是真心想在加密市场赚钱的。后续我会每天盯盘，及时分享最新的指标变化和操作思路，还会整理一份 “斐波那契点位实用手册”，关注我之后私信 “点位” 就能领取。要是你有自己的看法，也欢迎在评论区留言，咱们一起交流，毕竟赚钱这事儿，多个人多份思路！​

#ETH走势分析

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光看行情惨还不够，咱们得扒扒背后的原因。很多人以为只是美元流动性降低导致的，但资深玩家都知道，这次下跌还有个更关键的逻辑 黑产圈子的 “大地震”。之前陈志那 12.7 万枚比特币被没收的事，堪称是一次 “跨国远洋捕捞”，这对黑产圈子的冲击可不是一般的大。可能有人会说，这跟咱们普通币圈玩家有啥关系？其实你不知道，币圈里真正深度依赖这类资产的，大多是黑灰产从业者，咱们普通玩家顶多算是站在 “外围三层”，根本没触及核心。​
也正因如此，这段时间匿名币的行情才会跟比特币等主流币形成鲜明反差，一路居高不下。毕竟黑灰产从业者慌了啊，他们得赶紧找能 “隐藏踪迹” 的资产避险。更有意思的是，为啥美股没暴跌，币圈却一路往下？答案就在这里 —— 川普团队对黑灰产的监管力度正在加码。之前川普竞选时提过要搞 100 万枚比特币战略储备，当时咱们还傻乎乎地以为他们会花钱买，现在才明白，人家玩的是 “零成本没收囤币” 这一套！而且现在不少交易所都已经 “投诚”，只要一句 “证明你的资产来源合法”，相关名单就得乖乖上交，那些藏在暗处的黑灰产从业者，能不着急跑路吗？​
不过大家也别太慌，我个人判断，行情不会彻底崩。首先，美元流动性降低这事儿，说白了就是川普和鲍威尔演的一场戏，后续肯定会有缓解的办法。再看技术面，之前比特币在 91000 附近有个缺口，之前我还开玩笑说要补这个缺口，现在看来还真有这个可能，一旦缺口补上，大概率会迎来一波反弹。​
给大家划重点，接下来两个关键点位要盯紧了：89000 到 80500 这个区间，是日线级别做反弹的好机会；还有两个更 “极端” 的点位，67500 和 60500，咱们先当个笑话听，但要是真能跌到这个位置，反而有可能是建立底部的好时机。​
当然，这只是我个人的分析判断，市场行情瞬息万变，谁也不能保证 100% 准确。但有一点可以肯定，现在越是恐慌的时候，越要保持冷静。后续我会持续跟踪行情动态，及时给大家分享最新的分析和操作思路。如果你不想错过关键点位提醒，不想在行情波动中慌了手脚，就赶紧点个关注，咱们一起在币圈的浪潮里稳住阵脚，找准机会！​
​#ETH走势分析

First, let's look at some heart-wrenching data, and you'll understand what it means to go 'from heaven to hell.' Back in January this year, the two major exchanges in South Korea, Upbit and Bithumb, were doing remarkably well, with an average daily trading volume soaring to $7.8 billion, equivalent to earning a small target level of fees just by lying down every day. But by November, these two giants directly 'plunged,' with the average daily trading volume dropping to only $1.88 billion, a decrease of over 75%! What does that mean? It means that the trading volume from the previous day now takes four and a half days to accumulate, and the fee income has been cut in half and then cut again; employees' afternoon tea has probably switched from Starbucks to instant coffee.

The 'Fusaka' stage's 'Ladder Philosophy.' As an analyst who has been navigating the crypto space for many years, I can say that understanding this operation is much more useful than watching the market for three days and nights!
Let me first clarify the core logic for everyone. Hsiao-Wei Wang's metaphor that 'Ethereum is a ladder' is simply accurate to the core. The stability of this ladder relies entirely on three major 'pillars,' and we can't afford to lose even one. First is reliability, which is Ethereum's 'old expertise.' Just think about it, with so many upgrades, it has managed to maintain 100% block continuity. This is like a century-old shop that has never run out of stock; such stability is simply a 'clear stream' in the crypto space. The Fusaka stage will continue to strengthen this point, meaning that for us ordinary participants, we no longer have to worry about the protocol suddenly 'dropping the ball,' allowing us to participate in the ecosystem with more peace of mind.

First, let's get straight to the hard facts without any nonsense. From a short-term perspective, Bitcoin's "safety cushion" has been pushed down to the 89000 position, and this level is not to be taken lightly. If it doesn't hold, we need to look down at the 74000 to 76000 range, which has to withstand pressure. If it can't even hold this level, the profits we've made before might be largely given back. Looking at a larger scale, the weekly level of 93000 is the "line of life and death". If we end this week without recovering this number, the good momentum we were hoping for might just cool off. It's important to note that it has already broken the key upward trend line, and if there is no sign of recovery this week, we need to be prepared that this phase of good market conditions might just come to a complete end, and we might be entering a difficult adjustment period.

First, look at the 4-hour cycle; these two have a weakness that can't be hidden. After a long wait for a bit of a rebound, we thought we could catch our breath, but as soon as it peeked out, it was pushed down by the bears again, dropping continuously like a line of people 'diving.' What's worse is that the bearish volume has not only not weakened but is slowly expanding, like adding fuel to a fire, making the flames burn even stronger. Now this weak pattern is basically set in stone, and turning the tide is as difficult as climbing to the sky!
Some people might say that seeing a long lower shadow on the bearish candlestick indicates there is support for a rebound, right? Don't be foolish, brother! This is at most just short-term 'small skirmishes,' which are normal operations during market fluctuations and corrections. Those so-called rebounds are fundamentally just 'the last gasp of a dying horse,' seeming active but actually weak, unable to reverse the overall downward trend. Don't let these small fluctuations confuse you!

First, let's talk about BTC. This thing has indeed been a bit 'weak' recently, and there's no denying the downward trend. But we can't just look at the surface; we need to dig into the data to see the essence. From the support level, around 89000 is a tough nut to crack; it has held up during previous dips, making it a relatively reliable 'safety cushion' at the moment. However, there's a phenomenon to note: the recent trading volume has been 'quiet,' just like a weekend market, with not many people buying and selling. What does this indicate? The market participation is too low, everyone is watching from the sidelines. In the short term, there isn't much momentum for a significant drop; after all, 'a clever housewife can't cook without rice.' Without trading volume, a downward trend lacks energy!

Eastern Time November 18, this thing had a net outflow of 373 million USD in a single day, and what's worse is that this 'bleeding' state has been going on for a full 5 days! As someone who has been in the crypto space for nearly ten years, I have to say that this wave of market sentiment truly embodies the saying 'investor sentiment is more fickle than K-lines'. Many funds that entered at high prices are now either busy 'taking profits' or simply sitting on the sidelines with their money as 'bystanders'.
However, what's interesting is not to just focus on the 'total net outflow' panic; the differentiation in this market is the real deal! Take Grayscale for example, their Bitcoin mini trust ETF on the 18th managed to attract 140 million USD against the trend, becoming a 'safe haven for funds'. Honestly, I'm not surprised that Grayscale has this capability; after all, in the crypto asset management field, they are considered 'old-timers'. The brand reputation accumulated over the years is not for nothing. Moreover, those in the know are aware that Grayscale's products have consistently done well in terms of compliance and operational transparency. For investors looking to invest in Bitcoin but afraid of 'wild paths', their products are like putting a 'safety lock' on the funds, so even when the overall environment is 'bleeding', funds are still willing to flow towards them.

Yesterday, BTC's rebound barely touched the target resistance level near 93200. I thought the bulls would hold strong, but when I opened my eyes today, it almost dropped back to the starting point! This plot is even more thrilling than a TV drama, and many friends probably slapped their thighs in front of the screen: 'Are the bulls just holding on?'
Let's first discuss the situation with BTC. Currently, if it falls below the 90000 mark, there are over 700 million positions waiting to be liquidated, which is no small amount, so everyone should stay alert. Based on my trading experience over the years, if you want to go long in the next half month, your strategy must be clear: consider building a head position in the spot market in the range of 85000-83000. If the market continues to dip, 80000-75000 is a good opportunity to add to positions. But if you are trading contracts, make sure to keep the liquidation line below 60000, that's the bottom line; don’t be greedy and ruin everything. If you can successfully acquire chips and hold them until next month, there might be surprises. Looking at the short term, pay attention to the support levels around 90500-90000-88888 tonight. If there is a rebound during the day, 91200-92000 is the key resistance range; this range must be broken for the market to have a chance for a second surge, and then we look at the resistance near 96000.

Those who were still on the sidelines before are now rushing in with money. This market vitality deserves a perfect score!
To say who was the most outstanding in this "competition", it must be IBIT under BlackRock, with a net inflow of 60.6084 million dollars in a single day, almost pocketing more than half of the funds that day. The title of this "money-sucking king" is truly well-deserved! Some may ask, why is IBIT so impressive? In my opinion, the brand halo of BlackRock indeed plays a significant role, but the more critical factor is its hard power. As a giant in the traditional financial sector, BlackRock's expertise in asset management is undeniable. They know how to manage investors' money clearly, and risk control is also done quite well. Just looking at the historical total net inflow, it has now accumulated to 63.181 billion dollars. What does that mean? It's equivalent to the GDP of several small countries! This is enough to show that more and more investors are no longer viewing Bitcoin spot ETFs as a "niche toy," but rather as a mainstream investment option. IBIT has reached this point entirely by virtue of its strength.

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Family! Who understands? Yesterday, the big coin directly performed a 'free fall', briefly dropping to a low of 88526. Many brothers probably had their palms sweating while gripping their phones, fearing their positions would 'evaporate' directly. Fortunately, at a critical moment, it managed to give some face and crawled back up from the pit, stabilizing around 92000 by noon. But don't rush to celebrate; is this rebound a 'lifesaver' or a 'trap for the greedy'? As someone who has been in the circle for five years, today I'm going to break it down and explain the operational logic of the afternoon!​

The week before last, it was proudly at the high of 144.78, but this week it is like a deflated balloon sliding back, now it revolves around the 7-week moving average of 141 every day, like a headless fly unable to find direction. As someone who has been watching the crypto market for 5 years, I have to say a harsh truth: in the current market, rushing blindly is just paying 'tuition' to the market. Today, let's break it down and discuss; after reading this, you'll know whether to squat or to run.
First look at the technical aspect, this is our 'mirror' for judging the market. On the weekly level, SOL is no longer in the previous strong upward trend; now it is firmly in a 'high-level fluctuation'—simply put, both bulls and bears are competing, with neither side having an absolute upper hand. When it surged to 144.78, it was clear that no one wanted to buy more, and a pullback became inevitable. Now stuck at 141, it is actually waiting for a clear signal. Looking at the MACD indicator, this thing can help us see 'momentum': previously, the bulls were quite strong, but now? The DIF and DEA lines are stuck together above the zero axis, like two people who are tired of arguing and no longer want to fight. The volume bars are also getting smaller, indicating that it is difficult to see a strong rise in the short term; being cautious is definitely the right approach.

Otherwise, I really can't suppress the doubts in my heart! Let's not rush to bottom fish or chase the rise. The 'quiet' behind this wave has its subtleties, and I need to explain it to you in detail. It's all solid information. New friends, take good notes, and experienced players should check their thoughts too!
First, let's look at the technical side. Right now, ETH is like a stubborn child stuck at a crossroads. The short-term trend wants to surge upward, but the long-term trend is pulling it back. The tug-of-war is intense, and its sense of direction is more confusing than us trying to find a parking spot in the morning. Some people say, 'Looking at the indicators, a short-term rebound is coming.' I don't completely deny this, as some technical signals do seem to hint at a rebound, but we need to consider another key factor — the funding situation! Recently, the funding side has been like the 'champion of singing contrary to the technical side,' one side saying 'it will rise, it will rise,' while the other side quietly 'withdraws and lies flat.' You all need to be vigilant about this divergence!

The current weak performance of the crypto market bears a striking resemblance to the historic crash on October 10, and more importantly, the market may very well be at the tail end of the deleveraging cycle!
First, let me tell you about the 'behind-the-scenes' players of the sharp decline on October 10. It wasn't because of a problem with a mainstream asset, but rather the pricing mechanism of stablecoins suddenly 'failed,' leading to an unusual error. This was a big deal, as it directly triggered a domino effect, resulting in a large-scale liquidation wave. Statistics show that nearly 2 million accounts were forcibly liquidated due to insufficient margin, and market liquidity rapidly shrank in a short period, plunging the entire market into panic. This incident also served as a wake-up call for everyone: in a high-leverage market environment, any small issue can trigger a chain reaction, and stablecoins, as the 'ballast' of market liquidity, pose a significant risk to the entire market if they face issues.

A mysterious whale played a game of “buy high, sell low” on Ethereum, cashing out 223 million in just 5 days, then turned around and invested 153 million to buy the dip. Initially thought to be a “masterclass operation,” but upon calculating the average holding price, it turned out to be a loss of 200 million! This operation made even me, a seasoned analyst, exclaim: “The game of the wealthy is indeed both thrilling and brain-burning.”
Today, let’s share some “insights” from this operation. Whether you want to learn the strategies or avoid pitfalls, you need to pay close attention — after all, understanding the actions of whales in the crypto market is akin to getting an early “weather forecast” for the market.

It's really not that the market is targeted at you, nor is it that luck isn't on your side. Ultimately, it's still that your understanding of this circle hasn't broken through that layer of glass!
If you ask me, this circle is a treasure trove for ordinary people to turn their fortunes around! You don't need to have any prominent background, nor do you need to socialize every day to build connections, and you certainly don't need to hold a lot of resources. As long as you elevate your understanding and find the right methods, there are truly countless opportunities to make money. But why are there still so many people stumbling inside? Today, I will share my heartfelt thoughts with everyone about those 'cognitive pitfalls' that prevent you from making money, and see if you've fallen into them too!

Family, who understands! The crypto market has been like a roller coaster recently. A few days ago, everything was in the green, and then suddenly it gives you a 'free fall.' Many brothers have privately messaged me asking, 'Can I still hold ETH? Should I cut my losses and run?' Don't rush! As someone who has been in the industry for 8 years, today I will clarify everything about ETH for you. After reading this, you will at least avoid 3 months of detours!
Let's talk about the overall environment first. The recent market fluctuations are not really about the cryptocurrencies themselves, but rather driven by macro trends and industry regulations. It's like you intended to drive smoothly, but suddenly there are speed traps and roadworks; how can you not be shaken? However, ETH is different. It holds two 'game-changer' Layer 2s and institutional entry. I dare say that the progress of Layer 2 now is like the ETH crowdfunding of 2017. Those who focus on short-term ups and downs will eventually regret it! Last week, a leading Layer 2 project's TPS broke 5000. What does this mean? It means that the ETH ecosystem is transforming from a 'congestion fee assassin' to a 'high-speed expressway.' Once this ecosystem is fully operational, do you think ETH will still linger at its current price?

Family! When checking the market at noon, were you also made to feel your heart race by SOL's volatility? Some people ask me, 'Can we get in now?' 'Will it suddenly crash?' Don't worry! As someone who has been watching the market for five years, stepping on countless pits while also seizing many doubling opportunities, today I'll break down SOL's noon market for you in plain language. After reading this, you'll understand how to operate better than 90% of retail investors!
Let's start by talking about the big picture; the track where SOL is located is like 'gods fighting', with various public chains wanting to take a piece of the pie. Recently, I've been keeping an eye on the movements within its ecosystem. The speed of new projects launching is not slow, and there are a few reliable companies collaborating, especially as interactions with other platforms are becoming smoother. This is actually an invisible benefit, just like a company continuously expanding its business; in the long run, it definitely has potential. But we also need to be clear-headed; the situation of 'looking at money to decide' in this circle is too common. If the overall market atmosphere is bad, and funds are scared to retract, SOL, even with a solid foundation, could be brought down; conversely, if the market warms up, those funds that have been held back might rush into mainstream targets like SOL first. This is something everyone must keep in mind.

What is this going to do, rise or fall? As an old trader with five years of experience, today we're not going to be vague; let's break down the key signals in this market in plain language. After reading this, you'll definitely have a clear idea!
First, let's talk about the most intuitive current state: ETH is now hovering just above 4100, and it is firmly standing above the middle line of the Bollinger Bands. Don't think 'middle line' sounds mysterious; simply put, it means the short-term bulls haven't given up yet, and there's support holding it up. But we also need to stay clear-headed; when this thing surged to around 4250 before, it hit the upper line of the Bollinger Bands and bounced back like hitting a wall. This indicates that 4250 is a real 'roadblock,' and getting past it isn't that easy. As for the middle line, it's currently the 'main battlefield' for both bulls and bears. If it holds, there’s hope to bounce upwards; if it doesn’t, we’ll have to look for support downwards.

Don't panic! As someone who has been watching the market for 5 years, today we'll break it down and discuss whether this ETH pullback is 'the wolf is coming' or 'golden pit'?
First, let's look at the current market situation. This market is as chaotic as haggling in a vegetable market, with long and short signals intertwined, confusing newcomers. From the 24-hour trend, ETH has dropped from the position of 4755 and is now stuck around 4490. On the surface, it does seem a bit 'weak and vulnerable.' But in analysis, we can't just look at the surface; we need to dig into the data to find the core — the short-term technicals are indeed leaning towards adjustment. After all, this wave of decline has washed out quite a few following bulls, and the market needs time to digest the emotions.