A few days ago, it surged to 96,000, prompting people to exclaim 'the bull is back,' but in the blink of an eye, it has stalled at a high level. Many friends have privately messaged me asking if they should flee, so today I’ll open up my heart and discuss how many 'pits' and 'opportunities' this market wave really hides.
Let's start with the big picture. Recently, the entire market has been focused on the Federal Reserve's issues. While everyone hopes for a looser monetary policy, the reality is that as expectations heat up, risk assets are finding it harder to cope. Just like in our crypto circle, it's been clear lately that money is becoming scarce; even miners have started to adopt a 'Buddhist' attitude — the Glassnode indicator has been cooling down, indicating that they're not keen on holding firm. What's worse is that US tech stocks have also been struggling recently. Originally, people relied on them for confidence, but now the sentiment in the crypto market is following suit, making it quite difficult for BTC to regain its footing in the short term.
Now looking at the technical aspect, this is the key takeaway for today! BTC in the range of 95800 to 96700 is simply a 'natural roadblock'—on one hand, this is a historically dense trading area, with too many people previously stuck. As soon as the price rises to this level, there will be people wanting to break free; on the other hand, this position happens to align with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension, which those who understand technicals know is a strong resistance level. Recently, during rebounds, it has been evident that the momentum is getting weaker; the MACD volume bars on the 4-hour level are getting shorter, and the RSI has shown a top divergence in the overbought area—simply put, prices are rising while indicators are falling, and this 'asynchrony' often indicates a potential pullback. More critically, if the support level at 94500 cannot hold, it may trigger a wave of technical selling, and at that point, the decline could be more than just a little.
When it comes to trading, I must remind everyone not to be too impulsive. If you want to enter the market, it is advisable to build your position in batches within the range of 95800 to 96700, as this can help reduce holding costs by taking advantage of the fluctuations in the resistance zone. Do not rush in all at once, as it can easily lead to being 'stuck'. Set your stop loss at 97300; if this level is truly broken, it indicates that the short-term trend may have reversed. Accepting losses when necessary is important; do not hold on with the fantasy of 'waiting for a rebound'. For taking profits, the first target is 94500, which is both a psychological barrier and previous gap support; if we can successfully reach here, we will then look at 93500 and 92500, which correspond to the trend line and the vacuum area of chips, where there is a high probability of support.
Finally, it must be emphasized that risk management is crucial! Recently, the U.S. stock market has been very volatile, and there have been occasional large transfers on-chain, all of which could affect the price of BTC. It is recommended that everyone trade with a light position and not invest all their money at once, and definitely do not go against the trend. The market never lacks opportunities; preserving capital is the most important thing.
For those who have read this far, it indicates that you sincerely want to make money in the cryptocurrency market. I will monitor the market daily and share the latest indicator changes and trading ideas in a timely manner. I will also compile a 'Fibonacci Level Practical Manual'; after following me, just send a private message with 'levels' to receive it. If you have your own opinions, feel free to leave a comment; let’s communicate together, as more people bring more ideas to making money!
