一转眼就长大

Japan claims to have made progress in developing technology to interfere with foreign satellites, but the public is concerned about regional security being threatened.
On December 4, the Japanese government plans to procure "attack" drones manufactured by Israeli companies, a move that has faced strong opposition from the Japanese public. On December 2, Japanese Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi announced during a visit to the Air Self-Defense Force base in Tokyo that Japan has made breakthroughs in the development of technology to interfere with foreign satellites and plans to reorganize the Air Self-Defense Force into the "Aerospace Self-Defense Force" by 2026, gradually upgrading the existing "Space Operations Group" to "Space Operations Brigade" and "Space Operations Group".

Japan publicly calls for "ensuring stable utilization of space," but in reality, it has long prepared a militarized grand strategy. The "Defense Guidelines for Space" released in July this year openly amplifies the "China-Russia threat" to find excuses for military expansion.

In the defense budget for fiscal year 2025, 283.3 billion yen is allocated to low-orbit satellite constellations, accounting for 3.25% of the budget. The originally 120-person Space Operations Group is set to expand to a combat brigade of 700 to 1,000 by the end of the year, making ambitions evident.

The so-called "bodyguard satellites" are not for defense, but clearly anti-satellite weapons capable of actively changing orbits for collision and electromagnetic interference. Space-based laser technology, under the guise of "clearing space debris," can be quickly converted into capabilities to blind enemy satellites.

The US-Japan alliance has already extended into space; Japan is not only trialing the US "Starlink" but also plans to conduct joint exercises with the US military. This type of bundled cooperation is pushing regional security to the brink of danger.

The Japanese public sees this clearly, with nearly 40,000 people taking to the streets to protest military expansion, shouting to protect the peace constitution. A nation that has suffered greatly from war understands the terrifying revival of militarism.

Our Foreign Ministry has clearly opposed Japan's hype of threats and its intention to cover up military expansion. The international community is also highly vigilant against Japan's incremental breaches of the principle of "defensive-only". Peaceful use of space is not an empty slogan; it cannot be allowed for a few countries to disrupt.

What do you think, readers? Feel free to discuss in the comments.

2025.12.4
I. External Market
Overnight, the three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow rising by 0.86%, the Nasdaq by 0.17%, and the S&P 500 by 0.3%.
Large technology stocks had mixed performances, with Tesla up over 4%, Nvidia down 1.03%, and Apple down 0.71%. Non-ferrous metals and cryptocurrency reserve concept stocks led the gains.
Some small-cap stocks with 'robot' in their names were wildly speculated, with Nauticus Robotics up 115.89%, and the vacuum cleaning robot company iRobot soaring 73.85%. Rumors suggest that the U.S. government will introduce supporting policies for the development of the robotics industry.
The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed down 1.38%, with most popular Chinese concept stocks declining.
II. Market Analysis
Yesterday, the market faced pressure at the 60-day moving average. In the afternoon, it quickly plunged as commercial aerospace news turned bearish, and the big financials did not protect the market. The total market turnover was 1.6836 trillion, with a slight increase in volume, and the ratio of rising to falling stocks was 1443:3876.
After failing to fill the gap (3914-3927), the market adjusted for two consecutive days. The short-term optimistic expectation looks at range fluctuations, while the pessimistic expectation sees the fluctuations turning into a C-wave adjustment. Yesterday's brokerage breakdown intensified market anxiety.
Overall, before the central economic work conference in mid-December, the market is in a macro news vacuum, with low aggression from capital and a strong sense of wait-and-see.
III. Hot Topics
Non-ferrous: LME metal futures closed broadly higher, with copper and tin both hitting recent highs. Among them, LME copper rose by 2.72%, and LME tin rose by 4.92%.
Copper: Northern Copper Industry, Jiangxi Copper, Yunnan Copper, Tongling Nonferrous Metals
Tin: Tin Industry Co., Huasixie Nonferrous, Xingye Silver Tin
The FTSE China A50 Index includes Luoyang Molybdenum and Sungrow Power Supply, effective after the market closes on Friday, December 19. (Luoyang Molybdenum, Sungrow Power Supply)
Cultivated Diamonds: The 2025 Cultivated Diamond Industry Conference will be held in Zhengzhou from December 5 to 6, with an expected 30 projects in the industry chain to be signed on-site, with a total investment of no less than 15 billion yuan, basically covering the entire industry chain of cultivated diamonds. In addition, the '2025 Cultivated Diamond Industry Development Report' will be released on-site.
Cultivated Diamonds: Yellow River Whirlwind, World Diamond, Sifangda, Power Diamond
Innovative Drugs: The 2025 Innovative Drug High-Quality Development Conference will be held at 9:00 on December 7 (this Sunday) in Guangzhou. The conference will release the 2025 'National Basic Medical Insurance, Maternity Insurance, and Work Injury Insurance Drug Catalog' and the 2025 'Commercial Health Insurance Innovative Drug Catalog.' At the same time, to further enhance social understanding of catalog adjustments, the National Healthcare Security Administration plans to hold a 2025 healthcare drug catalog interpretation event at 9:30 on December 9 (Tuesday).
Innovative Drugs: Guangsheng Tang, Shutaishen, Lianhuan Pharmaceutical, Anglikang, Zhaoyan New Drug
JD Pharmacy: Sales of flu medications increased by 242% week-on-week. (Te Yi Pharmaceutical, Jindike)
Moore Threads will be listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board on December 5.

A-share market trend assessment today: Chinese concept stocks decline does not change structural opportunities
Yesterday, U.S. stocks rose sharply due to the U.S. small non-farm payroll data falling short of expectations (implying an increased probability of rate cuts in December), while the China International Capital Corporation Dragon Index fell in tandem. In contrast, the A50 futures slightly rose, indicating that the adjustment of Chinese concept stocks is more due to the factors of the constituent stocks themselves, rather than a macro-level systemic negative impact, with limited transmission effects on the A-share market.
In terms of sectors, the robotics, new urbanization, and brokerage sectors have favorable news catalysts. Today, it is crucial to pay attention to the performance of their collective bidding, which will provide an important barometer for the market. From the trend forecast, the A-share market may not necessarily see an adjustment today, but if it fails to break through with a large bullish line, the market is likely to continue a consolidation pattern on Friday, with a genuine breakout point possibly delayed until next Monday. Current market sentiment has gradually stabilized, and there is no need to overly worry about short-term fluctuations. If a pullback occurs, one can choose to position in quality targets.

Large funds fleeing, is the RMB appreciating? Can A-shares hold their ground on Thursday?
The market has been quite torturous these past two days, wanting to rise but still falling, yet not falling deeply. It’s difficult to bottom-fish in the short term, but the performance of the U.S. stock market is enviable, having rebounded after five consecutive days of gains, followed by one day of pullback and then two more days of gains. However, the performance of Chinese concept stocks is evidently weaker, out of sync with the three major U.S. stock indices, seemingly being deliberately suppressed. While the U.S. indices keep rising, it keeps falling, especially last night when all three major U.S. indices opened lower but closed higher, whereas the Chinese concept index opened and closed lower, dropping 1.38%. Foreign capital is evidently selling off Chinese assets while domestically, the RMB exchange rate has significantly appreciated, but A-shares continue to plummet. Of course, this is not only due to large domestic institutional sell-offs but also the short-selling by foreign capital. This has caused some confusion and increased concerns about today’s market.
The shadow of foreign capital selling: The performance of Chinese concept stocks directly casts a shadow over the opening of our A-shares today. Why are foreign investors so resolute in “selling, selling, selling”? It could still be the old issue—concerns over the strength of our economic recovery, policy directions in certain industries (like the previous education and training and internet platforms), or simply a shift in global risk appetite, thinking that there are better opportunities elsewhere? Adding to this is the year-end accounting, making liquidity tighter, prompting them to withdraw from emerging markets for observation. This pressure is very real.
The paradox of RMB appreciation: On one side, foreign capital is fleeing, while on the other, the RMB is impressively appreciating! Logically, this should be a significant positive, as assets become more valuable. But why can’t A-shares move? The key issue is still a lack of internal confidence! Funds (mainly institutional funds) are busy settling accounts at year-end, lacking the inclination to drive the market; retail investors, seeing the incessant declines, are even more hesitant to enter the market; transaction volumes are flat on the floor, indicating a lack of money and market sentiment. Relying solely on a favorable exchange rate cannot withstand the withdrawal of large domestic funds and the inactivity of retail investors! This indicates that the market is more concerned about confidence in the fundamentals and the actual money coming in.
The “year-end curse”: During this phase, A-shares easily enter a “year-end mode”—settling accounts, adjusting positions, and seeking safety become the main themes. The main players do not want to stir things up, retail confidence is low, and naturally, the trading volume cannot pick up, leading to a vicious cycle of “sideways movement - gradual decline - sudden plunge.” The last two days have seen consecutive adjustments, even breaking below the five-day moving average, making the technical picture indeed look grim.
What will happen today, Thursday? Will there be pressure followed by a rise?
To be honest, having just experienced the “shock” from overnight Chinese concept stocks, coupled with two days of adjustments and the technical pressure from breaking below the five-day moving average, it is inevitable that there will be significant pressure at the market open today (especially for core assets and tech growth stocks that rely on foreign capital inflows).
Opening likely low: The performance of Chinese concept stocks will directly transmit emotional sentiment to the corresponding sectors of Hong Kong and A-shares, with a low open being the standard “process.”
Resistance during the session is key: Whether or not it can withstand the opening pressure, or even show some “struggle,” is very crucial. There are several points to watch for:
“National team” movements? In several recent major declines, banks and real estate sometimes come out to “support” the market. While we cannot expect sustained large gains, they can support the index at low levels and prevent panic from spreading. Last night there was significant good news for real estate, which might help support the index.
Speculative funds trading themes? No matter how bad the market is, there are always those willing to act. For example, during the previous declines, military and AI application sectors went against the trend. If there are localized hotspots that can attract some market sentiment, it would help hedge the downward momentum.
Changes in trading volume: If after a significant decline at the open, we see some slight unusual activity in trading volume (not panic selling but rather an initial buying interest), that could be a positive signal, indicating that some funds believe the position is decent or are attempting a technical “bottom fishing.”
Most optimistic scenario: After a low open, quickly stabilizing, gaining support at a certain level (like a short-term support level below), then experiencing weak fluctuations, without ruling out the possibility of some hot sectors trying to turn positive, ultimately closing with a doji or small bearish/bullish candle (with a drop smaller than the open), that would be satisfactory.
Most pessimistic scenario: After a low open, if the buying interest is weak, major stocks give up their resistance, panic selling surges, we may see widespread limit-downs or broad declines, possibly testing deeper support levels.
Neutral (more likely): Low open, probing downwards, some resistance and struggle during the session, narrowing the decline (but still in negative territory), and a narrow range until the close. The overall decline would dominate but be slightly better than Chinese concept stocks, with possible resistance rebounds during the session and ultimately closing with a small bearish candle or doji after the low open.
Core conclusion: It will be extremely challenging to have surprises today! After consecutive declines and breaking below key levels, we face multiple “debuffs” like the major drop in Chinese concept stocks, foreign capital outflow, tighter year-end liquidity, and Thursday being a “fear day.” Today’s core task is not to expect a major rise but to see if we can withstand the pressure and avoid panic (surprise), showing some resilience.
In terms of operation: During this market freeze period, opportunities brew in pessimism. If you really want to make a move, “slowly and in batches” is the absolute truth! Never think about going all in at once. Right now, what matters is patience and genuine research on targets. It’s not too late to add positions when the market’s stabilization signals are clearer (like returning above important moving averages, effective gentle increases in volume, and good continuity in hotspots). Short-term traders should watch more and act less, waiting for technical rebound opportunities after panic releases.
Hang in there, most of the time in stock trading is about waiting for opportunities; the actual profitable times are few. Today is likely to still follow the rhythm of fluctuating to find support at the bottom, so maintaining a steady mindset is the most important!

December 4 morning news
1. Stock announcements
Jinggong Technology: Won the bid for the Wuhan Qingshan high-performance carbon fiber production base project with a bid amount of 729 million yuan
Aluminum Corporation of China International: The holding subsidiary jointly won the bid for a 3.03 billion yuan electrolytic aluminum project
Zhejiang Rongtai: The Thai base plans to establish supply capacity for robot-related products in Q1 next year
Fosun Pharma: Innovative drug FXS887 tablets for the treatment of advanced malignant solid tumors received clinical trial approval
Glinda: Participated in the subscription of 80 million yuan for the strategic placement of public offering shares of Muxi Co., Ltd.
Yijiahe: Will jointly establish an innovation team with Huawei Cloud CloudRobo's embodied intelligent R&D team to collaboratively create cloud-native robot products for end-cloud collaboration and release solutions
2. Suspension and resumption of trading
Pulutong: Suspended trading, planning to issue shares and pay cash to acquire assets
Wanlong Optoelectronics: Suspended trading, planning to acquire control of Zhongkong Information, expected to constitute a major asset reorganization
3. Individual stock risk warnings
Meikailong: Shareholder intends to reduce holdings by 3.00%
Weisibo: Shareholder intends to reduce holdings by 2.99%
Del Shares: Shareholder intends to reduce holdings by 2.98%
Huakai Yibai: Shareholder intends to reduce holdings by 2.94%
Dadi Electric: Shareholder intends to reduce holdings by 2.00%
Tengjing Technology: Shareholder intends to reduce holdings by 1.96%
Nanhua Instruments: Shareholder intends to reduce holdings by 1.19%
Anfu Technology: Shareholder intends to reduce holdings by 1.00%
Tianshan Aluminum: Shareholder intends to reduce holdings by 1.00%
Bangjie Shares: Shareholder intends to reduce holdings by 0.87%
Jianlang Hardware: Shareholder intends to reduce holdings by 0.86%
Tengda Technology: Shareholder intends to reduce holdings by 0.80%
Guizhou Bailing: Due to suspected insider trading, the actual controller Jiang Wei has been filed by the Securities Regulatory Commission

The Shanghai Composite Index has experienced two consecutive declines, dropping 36 points from the rebound high, clearly demonstrating the effect of market consolidation. Since the beginning of April, there have been very few occurrences of three consecutive daily declines. The Shanghai Composite Index is obviously oversold, with a tendency to open low in the morning and then rise significantly thereafter.
J.P. Morgan and UBS have both released bullish reports on the Chinese stock market. On one hand, they have raised their ratings from neutral to significantly upgraded to overweight. On the other hand, they have increased the earnings growth forecast for 2026 from this year's 6% to further up to 8%. There is no expectation of a significant decline in the Shanghai Composite Index.
In the last seven trading days of the U.S. stock market, it has risen for six days, with a clear upward trend. The successor to Fed Chair Powell is firmly implementing interest rate cuts. On December 10, the Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, with a probability rising to 87%. The tapering program will end in December, significantly increasing liquidity. The U.S. stock market will rise significantly, and the Asia-Pacific stock markets will also surge.
As December approaches the end of the year, funds are becoming cautious, and the Shanghai Composite Index remains weak. A strong upward trend in the U.S. stock market and Asia-Pacific stock markets is very important for the Shanghai Composite Index. The Fed is entering a rate-cutting cycle, and the probability of domestic rate cuts in early next year will also increase significantly.
High-tech and traditional industries are the two main lines this December. The leading ultra-hard materials stock has risen by 15.37%, with power, chemicals, and rare earths all rising against the trend. The commercial aerospace sector has leading stocks with consecutive price limits, showing even greater potential for growth. As always, significant declines are opportunities to increase holdings.
The characteristics of a bull market show that the support of the May moving average is very strong. The external situation is easing, and domestic economic data is steadily improving. There will not be a second bottom test; the Shanghai Composite Index will oscillate slightly around the May moving average. Stay confident, be patient, and hold on for the last five minutes. Wishing everyone good luck this Thursday!

December 4 Pre-Market Plan: Market sentiment continues to be low, and the focus in the short term should be on light indices and heavy emotions!
1. After a wave of continuous volume-reduced rises, the market has shown a clear adjustment. In the short term, there is significant pressure above, and the volume remains at 1.6 trillion. This performance indicates a high probability of continued oscillation and consolidation of the index in the short term, possibly still in a bottom-building phase. However, for short-term operations, as long as the index does not plunge sharply, following the sentiment may be more important!
The US stock market opened low but rose sharply, with Chinese concept stocks generally falling, and the A50 oscillating into the positive. The overall sentiment in the external market is average, so the probability of the index continuing to oscillate and consolidate is high without particularly strong inflows of new capital. Therefore, do not have too high expectations for the index's performance today. Stopping the downtrend may be the biggest victory!
2. After triggering severe volatility, Dream Sky opened significantly lower and hit the limit down. Jinfu made a strong challenge after severe volatility and broke out of a large position. Various signs indicate that short-term severe volatility has become a significant hurdle. Whether the individual stocks close to severe volatility will continue to attempt breakthroughs is a major point of interest. How Haixin performs today is also very much worth looking forward to. Although it is at the same level as Haiwang, if it continues to advance today, it will trigger severe volatility. Whether funds will once again actively impact is a significant point of interest. However, given the continuous low sentiment of the index, the market urgently needs a strong stock to stand out and challenge severe volatility. Undoubtedly, the most active stocks in the Strait direction recently are the most suitable, as the previous Dream Sky and Jinfu did not have much sector support, while Haixin is clearly a hotspot for short-term market sentiment. Therefore, its performance this morning represents the release of short-term sentiment, and whether it can achieve better-than-expected performance is very much worth looking forward to!
Another stock facing severe volatility is Guosheng, which has been under control for two consecutive trading days. Yesterday's deep V indicates that short-term funds do not want to give up on it, and its recent performance is not unrelated to quantitative guidance. As the stock king of November, this stock's patient control of volatility is more because its theme of lithium batteries is struggling overall, rather than being the core sentiment of the market in the short term. Therefore, funds do not dare to actively impact severe volatility. Hence, Haixin's statement today will be very important. If Haixin can make a strong statement, it may stimulate it. Once funds return to the lithium battery direction, this stock may perform in three waves in a short time. After all, in the current market, if the index is not doing well, group speculation will become the first choice for funds!
Compared to Haixin, Haiwang does not have severe volatility suppression today, so it is more flexible. Moreover, the flu direction is overall not bad. Its limit-up pattern yesterday is also far stronger than Haixin. In terms of logic, its hope of promotion is much higher than that of Haixin, but whether it can turn advantages into victories depends more on the attitude of the funds. Therefore, today's bidding and the choice of opening funds are very interesting. Perhaps whoever boards first will attract more funds!
3. From yesterday's market performance, the emotional benchmark for the Strait is Pingtan. Whether Pingtan can stop falling and stabilize the trend is very important for the entire Strait direction. What is encouraging is that Pingtan did not hit the limit down yesterday, which brings hope for the overall repair of the Strait. Therefore, as long as Pingtan does not show significant negative feedback in today's morning bidding, the overall sentiment of the Strait may not be too bad, especially since there are still many limit-ups in this direction. It is a significant cross-year theme. Whether Pingtan can stabilize without a significant drop is very important for the high-low switch of the entire sector. After all, there has been a switch to Shida before, and this time, Haixin has surpassed Shida's 5 limit-ups. Once it can continue to be strong, the entire repair of the Strait is very much worth looking forward to!
Huaying is also a stock in the Strait direction. Its strong performance in the afternoon drove the limit-ups of Furong and Daoming. After all, they are all stocks in the consumer electronics direction. However, compared to Furong and Daoming, Huaying's Strait attributes are clearly a plus. Moreover, it is a significant breakthrough stock after many days of high-level consolidation, and the expectations for the next day are quite high. If the bidding is strong enough, it is very likely to emerge as a relatively low-position stock!
4. Commercial aerospace exhibited a very peculiar trend of divergence and consensus followed by divergence yesterday, closely related to the maiden flight of Zhuque III. Although there were some regrets in the end, this event has landed, and these active stocks must choose a direction today!
Shunhao is the only stock that advanced in the early market. After all, the aerospace and Leike stocks at the same level showed solid second-wave performances, while Tongyu has been on a continuous limit-up. Shunhao had already experienced sufficient turnover on the third limit-up, so funds chose this relatively low-position stock to attack in the early market. Therefore, whether it can turn weak into strong this morning is very much worth looking forward to. If it struggles to maintain continuity, the overall commercial aerospace may face the risk of realizing gains!
The limit-up of Hangji is also very beautiful, a rebound after a limit down. Although it faced a limit down later due to news from Zhuque III, it still firmly held the limit. If the sector remains strong tomorrow, it will still be at the forefront of fund attacks. After all, if funds choose a high-low switch, it is clearly a stock selected by funds yesterday!
The rebound limit of Yinhe is even more beautiful. It followed Shunhao's rebound in the early market, but its limit-up time is even stronger than Shunhao's. If commercial aerospace performs well tomorrow, it will be the first choice for funds besides Shunhao. Therefore, if Shunhao shows better-than-expected performance in tomorrow's morning bidding, the probability of funds focusing on it is still very high!
The most noteworthy aspect of commercial aerospace is still Hangfa. It is the absolute trend leader in this direction. Yesterday, a lot of retail capital flowed into the entire sector, indicating that most funds are optimistic about this direction. Whether the large-scale connections can succeed will be a significant point of interest. Whether it is beaten by the market or favored by the market, Hangfa's performance is very important for the entire commercial aerospace sector. It will be another weather vane for this direction!
The content in this article is for sharing and communication only and should not be considered as actual operation advice!

Important Financial News Summary Interpretation
1. The three major U.S. stock indices collectively rose, with the Dow Jones up 0.86%, the Nasdaq up 0.17%, and the S&P 500 index up 0.3%. Tesla rose over 4%, while Microsoft fell over 2%. Non-ferrous metals and cryptocurrency reserve concept stocks led the gains.
FTSE A50 futures rose 0.22% in overnight trading; the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 1.38%, with most popular Chinese concept stocks declining.
2. U.S. November ADP employment decreased by 32,000, the lowest level since March 2023, with an estimate of an increase of 5,000, and a previous value of an increase of 42,000.
3. The understood king has begun to pay attention to robots: according to reports, after announcing a plan to accelerate AI development five months ago, he has started to shift focus to robots.
4. Special Study: New urbanization is an important carrier to expand domestic demand and promote industrial upgrading, strengthening the domestic circulation. Combine urban renewal with eliminating safety hazards and stabilizing the real estate market.
5. Doubao image creation model Seedream 4.5 released: focusing on commercial productivity scenarios.
6. Moore Threads: listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board on December 5; Muxi Co., Ltd.: the issuance price is 104.66 yuan/share.
7. Morgan Stanley: the target for the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 index by the end of next year is 4840 points.
Statement: Personal opinion, for reference only, trade at your own risk!

December 4th pre-market news. The Fed's interest rate cut is a given, benefiting this sector.
In November, the U.S. job numbers decreased by 32,000, falling short of market expectations, with further expectations for an interest rate cut in December. This is beneficial for the resource and non-ferrous metal sectors.
On Wednesday, U.S. stocks closed higher, with the Dow up 0.86%, the Nasdaq up 0.17%, and the S&P up 0.3%.
Large tech stocks showed mixed results, with Tesla rising over 4.08%, Oracle up 3.3%, Google up 1.46%, Microsoft down over 2%, and Nvidia down over 1%. Non-ferrous metals led the gains, while the storage chip sector declined.
Moore Threads will be listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board on December 5th, with an issuance price of 114.28 yuan per share.
Most popular Chinese concept stocks fell, with the Golden Dragon Index down 1.38%, NIO and XPeng down over 4%, Li Auto down over 3%, Bilibili down 2%, and Alibaba and Baidu down over 1%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index futures rose 0.33%.
Futures for gold and oil rose slightly, with the renminbi appreciating to close at 7.05.
As the year-end approaches, looking back, we find that although this year's market index has had decent gains, the opportunities to outperform the index are highly concentrated in a few sectors, making it difficult to capture profit effects, with structural differentiation very obvious; if you can't catch the rhythm, it's all in vain.
By the end of the year, U.S. stocks are expected to perform better than A-shares, so consider part of the allocation to buy overseas funds.
Recently, institutions and large investors have continuously increased their long positions in stock index futures for six consecutive days, indicating that they are not bearish at this position.
The long-short ratio of sectors has decreased compared to yesterday's bullish positions, but most are still above 1.0, which is beneficial for a bullish counterattack.
Don't forget to like and follow for investment and financial advice to avoid getting lost.

Japan has announced!

On December 1, Japan really went crazy. Japan announced: starting December 1, it will begin spending money. How much money will it spend? It will spend 110 trillion yen (approximately 520 billion yuan). The purpose of spending this money is to strengthen Japan's defense capabilities, especially to develop the 'capability to attack enemy bases.'

The number of this money makes many Japanese people feel a chill, because within Japan itself, nursing homes are short of caregivers, elderly people are waiting for half a year to get in, and 40% of public elementary schools are in unsafe buildings, with floors buckling and walls cracking, and maintenance funds have not been approved for three years.

However, with one sentence from the Japanese government, the five-year nursing fees for Tokyo's nursing homes and the three-year renovation fees for schools nationwide were all diverted to buy weapons, without hesitation.

The money is mainly used for military purposes—not for the welfare of the people but for armaments. Japan has already ordered 400 American 'Tomahawk' cruise missiles, which, once launched from the Ryukyu base, can hit targets within 1,600 kilometers at any time.
110 trillion yen may seem abstract to ordinary people, but when it is connected to real life, the shock becomes immensely real. In Japan, countless families are worrying about elderly care issues.
Due to a severe shortage of caregivers, many elderly people want to enter a nursing home, and waiting in line for more than half a year is common, with some even having to wait for several years. Family members are anxious, while the elderly wait in solitude and uncertainty. At the same time, the education sector is also facing severe tests.
Data shows that nearly 40% of public elementary schools in Japan have varying degrees of safety hazards in their teaching buildings. Every day, children attend classes in classrooms where the floors buckle and walls crack. These maintenance reports have been submitted, but the maintenance funds are still delayed in approval; some schools' renovation requests have even been waiting for more than three years.
However, just when the welfare sector is crying out for help, the Japanese government made a decision that made many people feel a chill. They almost without hesitation diverted this sum of money, enough to cover five years of nursing costs for all nursing homes in Tokyo or three years of renovation costs for all public schools across the country, to military expenditures. This money is indeed to be used on the 'cutting edge,' but this edge seems not to be aimed at the domestic welfare predicament.
So, what exactly will this 110 trillion yen be used to buy? The answer has already been partially revealed. Japan has already placed an order with the United States to procure 400 of the latest 'Tomahawk' cruise missiles. The power of these missiles should not be underestimated; once launched from the Ryukyu Islands' base, their strike range can cover any target within 1,600 kilometers.
What does this mean? It means Japan will possess an offensive weapon capable of threatening the depth of other countries' territories beyond the scope of self-defense. This is not just about buying a few pieces of equipment; it marks a fundamental shift in Japan's long-standing principle of 'defensive defense' since World War II.
In addition to the 'Tomahawk' missiles, this massive budget will also be used for the research, development, and procurement of a series of new weapons. For example, missile systems designed to intercept hypersonic glide vehicles, unmanned combat aircraft capable of long-range reconnaissance and strikes, and enhanced capabilities for cyber warfare and space warfare.
The Japanese Ministry of Defense's plan is to establish a comprehensive, multi-layered offensive and defensive system in the coming years. Behind this shift is Japan's extreme anxiety about the surrounding security environment, believing that traditional defensive measures are no longer sufficient to cope with the so-called 'severe challenges.'
This strategic shift has also sparked huge controversies within Japan. Supporters argue that in the face of an increasingly complex international situation, possessing strong counterattack capabilities is necessary to ensure national security and is a form of 'preparation for the future.'
They emphasize that peace cannot rely solely on prayer; strength is the true backing. But opposing voices are equally strong; many people worry that this will break the military balance in the region, trigger a new arms race, and put Japan in a more dangerous position.
Moreover, many citizens question when the government invests huge wealth into invisible 'security,' who will solve the real and tangible livelihood issues in front of them? In a country that cannot guarantee the safety of children in school or the happiness of the elderly in their later years, even having the most advanced weapons, how much sense of security can it bring?
This money is like a mirror, reflecting the profound contradictions in Japanese society today. On one side are the pressing livelihood hardships, and on the other is the anxiety about future security. How to choose between the two tests the wisdom of the Japanese government and touches the nerves of every Japanese person.
Is this a necessary security investment or an expensive gamble? Perhaps time will provide the answer, but for people now, this choice is undoubtedly heavy and difficult. What are your thoughts on this matter? Feel free to leave your opinions in the comments section.
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Just now
The real reason for Trump's eagerness to achieve a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine has been revealed: it turns out that America is afraid Ukraine will repeat the mistakes of Afghanistan.
On December 3, German commentator Hauke Ritz stated in an interview: "The collapse of the Kyiv regime is inevitable, which has frightened the Americans. If Russia wins, the Americans and Europeans will gain nothing, just like when America was in Afghanistan, fighting a war for over ten years and ultimately escaping in disgrace. Therefore, to avoid such a humiliating scene, Trump is very eager to achieve a ceasefire."
Ritz went on to say: "Russia is now a leader in the drone field, possessing air superiority across vast battlefields, which also leads to their significant ground advantages. If Russia and Ukraine continue to fight for a few more months, Ukraine's front lines will certainly collapse, and at that time, the whole world will watch the Americans and Europeans fleeing Ukraine in panic, which would be very shameful for America."
No wonder recently Trump has cut off military aid to Ukraine and halted intelligence sharing; it turns out he is afraid that the 'outcome of Afghanistan' will be reenacted in Ukraine. If it really happens, it would be a real 'loss for America.' Therefore, while Russia has not completely established a frontline advantage, timely promotion of a ceasefire is currently the best choice for America.
But will Ukraine really choose to cede land, reduce its military, and give up joining NATO for a ceasefire? The probability is low; at least Zelensky will not agree. Next, we will see what means Trump can come up with to force Ukraine to surrender. If there are no better means, America, Europe, and Ukraine will all be the losers.
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Today's Hot Sectors (December 1, Monday)
Commercial Aerospace: Aerospace Development has a 2-day trading limit, Tongyu Communication has a 3-day trading limit, Leike Defense, Shunhao Co., Galaxy Electronics, Lijun Co. hit the trading limit, Aerospace Huanyu, Aerospace Power, Aerospace Changfeng, Tianyi New Materials, Boyun New Materials follow suit.
(According to the China National Space Administration, the agency has recently established a Commercial Aerospace Department, and related businesses are gradually being developed, marking the arrival of a dedicated regulatory body for China's commercial aerospace industry)
5.5G: Tongyu Communication has a 3-day trading limit, ZTE Communication, Guanghe Tong and others hit the trading limit.
Photoresist: Rongda Photonic rises over 16%, Guofeng New Materials, Xingye Co. hit a 10CM trading limit, Nanda Optoelectronics rises over 9%, Tongcheng New Materials, Jiaxian Co., Glinda, Aerospace Zhiguang, Gaomeng New Materials, Jingsai Technology rise over 6%, Wavelength Optoelectronics, Xinlai Yingcai, Woge Optoelectronics rise over 5%.
Copper metal concept shows active performance: Jiangxi Copper hits the trading limit, Northern Copper, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, Western Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum follow suit.
(The copper trading price on the London Metal Exchange (LME) has reached a historical high.)
Aluminum metal sector continues to strengthen: Minfa Aluminum hits the trading limit, Chang Aluminum Co. rises over 7%, Yun Aluminum Co., China Aluminum, Nanshan Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum follow suit.
Lithium mining concept continues to be strong, Tianhua Energy rises over 10%, Hebang Bio touches the trading limit, Zhongkuang Resources, Cangge Mining, Yahua Group, Chuaneng Power.
(As of the week ending November 28, the weekly inventory of lithium carbonate is 116,000 tons, a decrease of 2,452 tons compared to the previous period. Additionally, the main contract for lithium carbonate on the Guangqi Exchange rose over 2% during the day, approaching 98,500 yuan/ton.)
End-side hardware (AI toy direction leading the rise): Broadcom Integration, Shifeng Culture hit the trading limit, Guanghe Tong rises over 10%, Yiyuan Communication, Runxin Technology, Lexin Technology have strong gains.
Film and television stocks collectively rise: China Film hits the trading limit, Happy Blue Ocean rises over 9%, Aofei Entertainment, Huayi Brothers, Light Media, Hengdian Film and Television follow suit.
Ice and Snow Economy concept sees afternoon surge: Iceberg Cold and Hot hits the trading limit, Jingxue Energy-saving, Snowman Group, Dalian Shengya, Binglun Environment, Changbai Mountain follow suit.
(The 12th National Public Ice and Snow Season Press Conference was recently held in Beijing. This year's ice and snow season is themed 'Ice and Snow Start a New Journey · Passion Towards the Future', including the launch ceremony, ice and snow sports events, and the first ice and snow sports carnival in Changchun. The launch ceremony will be held in late December at the South Riverbank Park in Changchun.)

The Chinese Embassy in Japan stated today (December 1): “Personnel from the Japan Self-Defense Forces said that if the Fujian ship takes military action in Taiwan, Japan and the United States have the capability to sink the Fujian ship. In response, the Ministry of Defense spokesperson replied with a single sentence: ‘A fool's dream, overestimating oneself.’” This strong wording directly targets the recent provocative remarks by the Japan Self-Defense Forces about frequently stirring up the idea of ‘sinking the Fujian ship.’ As a defeated nation in World War II, Japanese politicians and the military have increasingly tested China's bottom line in recent years, from Takashima Sato's statement that ‘if there is an incident in the Taiwan Strait, Japan will be involved’ to now openly shouting about sinking Chinese aircraft carriers. Tokyo's adventurism is breaking through the political taboos that have existed for 70 years since the war. The military actions of the Japan Self-Defense Forces in recent years can be described as a ‘contradiction in itself.’ On one hand, they claim to ‘defend only,’ while on the other hand, they have invested 3.2 trillion yen to upgrade military facilities on the southwestern islands and even deployed 17-type anti-ship missiles with a range of 300 kilometers on Miyako Island. Ironically, when Japanese media hype the idea of ‘sinking the Fujian ship,’ the anti-ship missile range of Japan's active main destroyer ‘Maya Class’ is only 150 kilometers, and it lacks all-weather operational capability. This ‘tough talk but soft action’ predicament is glaringly exposed in the submarine forces. The Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force's proud ‘Soryu Class’ submarines, despite using AIP technology to enhance stealth, have a maximum speed of only 20 knots, far below the 30-knot speed of the Fujian ship's escort formation, the 055-type destroyer. In the 2024 East China Sea standoff incident, a ‘Soryu Class’ submarine was detected by Chinese anti-submarine aircraft due to excessive noise and was ultimately forced to surface. Military experts point out: ‘It is like trying to intercept an aircraft carrier with a fishing boat—theoretically feasible, but doomed to fail in practice.’ Behind the reckless behavior of Japanese politicians lies a dangerous calculation. As the United States deploys 60% of its naval power to the Asia-Pacific, Japan attempts to use the Taiwan Strait issue to ‘hitch a ride’ with the United States. In the 2025 U.S.-Japan signed ‘Extended Deterrence Joint Statement,’ the U.S. side promises to provide a nuclear umbrella for Japan in the event of an ‘emergency situation in the Taiwan Strait,’ and this ‘nuclear coercion’ makes Japanese right-wing forces eager to act. However, Washington's calculations are not straightforward. A Pentagon think tank report shows that the U.S. military's assessment of the probability of success in intervening in a conflict in the Taiwan Strait has dropped from 78% in 2016 to 41% in 2025. The Japanese newspaper Yomiuri Shimbun revealed that the U.S. Pacific Command had privately warned Tokyo: ‘If Japan fully confronts China over the Taiwan Strait issue, the Japanese mainland may become the first round of strike targets.’ This strategy of ‘using Japan as a shield’ puts Japan in the awkward position of being a ‘strategic orphan’—having to act as America's vanguard while fearing being treated as cannon fodder. The Fujian ship, as China's first electromagnetic catapult aircraft carrier, far exceeds Japan's expectations in technological breakthroughs. Its J-35 stealth carrier-based aircraft has a combat radius of 1,300 kilometers, and in conjunction with the KJ-600 early warning aircraft, it can establish a complete air defense network 500 kilometers away. In contrast, Japan's ‘Izumo Class’ quasi-aircraft carrier transformation plan is riddled with flaws. The originally planned F-35B fighter jets cannot be accommodated due to insufficient runway length, and the actual payload can only sustain 45 minutes of combat. In the 2024 Yokosuka port incident, an F-35B crashed due to catapult failure, revealing that the Japan Self-Defense Forces have not even met basic support capabilities. Japan's ‘selective amnesia’ regarding history is particularly evident in the military field. In 1941, when Japan launched a surprise attack on Pearl Harbor, the commander of the Combined Fleet, Isoroku Yamamoto, warned: ‘We may awaken a sleeping giant.’ Today, this statement is being fulfilled—when Japanese politicians shout about sinking the Fujian ship, the Chinese Navy already has 370 active vessels, with a total tonnage exceeding 2 million tons, 3.5 times that of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force. Even more concerning is the rightward shift in Japanese society. A 2025 Asahi Shimbun poll shows that 43% of young people in Japan believe that ‘if there is an incident in the Taiwan Strait, we should cooperate with U.S. military actions,’ while less than 15% of respondents are familiar with the Cairo Declaration and the Potsdam Proclamation. This fracture in historical cognition provides fertile ground for the resurgence of Japanese militarism. Professor Ruri Miura from the University of Tokyo warns: ‘Japan is repeating the mistakes of the 1930s—using nationalism to cover up strategic anxiety.’ After the opening of the Central Asia-China Railway in 2025, China's dependence on the Strait of Malacca has dropped to 38%, while Japan still relies on this ‘maritime lifeline’ for 80% of its energy transport. When China begins to provide a Renminbi settlement channel to Middle Eastern oil-producing countries, Japanese politicians will realize: they have lost strategic initiative in the China-U.S. game. The evolution of the Taiwan Strait situation may welcome a turning point. The Chinese Navy plans to hold military exercises around Taiwan in January 2026, while the Japan Self-Defense Forces will simultaneously hold ‘Rim of the Pacific’ multinational military exercises. The overlap of these two time points may serve as a touchstone to test the bottom lines of all parties. In contrast, Japan's quasi-zenith satellite system has repeatedly encountered significant incidents with positioning errors exceeding 30 meters due to technical defects. This ‘dimensional strike’ technological gap ensures that any adventure by Japanese militarism will come at a painful cost. Looking back from the time-space coordinates of 2025, the Japan Self-Defense Forces' ‘sinking rhetoric’ is nothing but the dying struggle of the specter of militarism. From the First Sino-Japanese War to the Pearl Harbor incident, from the War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression to the Yasukuni Shrine visits, Japanese politicians seem never to have truly understood the meaning of ‘learning from history.’ When the electromagnetic catapult of the Fujian ship cuts through the sky, Tokyo should remember: the recording of Emperor Hirohito announcing Japan's surrender on August 15, 1945, is still played on a loop at the United Nations headquarters. History is never rewritten because of ‘strategic misjudgment’; it only makes the arrogant pay the price they deserve. What do you think about this? Feel free to share in the comments section.

December 1st Review: Some thoughts on the next-day trends of Aerospace Development, ZTE, Shida Group, Guosheng Technology, and Daoming Optical!
1. Aerospace Development (Commercial Aerospace + Strait)
In the morning session, the commercial aerospace sector showed an exceptionally strong sector effect, with Tongyu bidding having the market's highest order of 2.4 billion, and Leike, Shunhao, and Galaxy all opened at the same price. In the final phase of the bidding, Hangfa was aggressively bought up to near the limit-up opening. Additionally, this stock has a very high recognition, so there was strong buying at the limit-up during the opening. Given that the divergence in the commercial aerospace sector was minimal throughout the day, Hangfa eventually exhibited a strong consecutive board trend!
After hours, the dragon and tiger list saw speculative funds entering from positions like Sangtian Road, Xueyuan South Road, Hualin Beijing Branch, and Jiangsu Road, with very little selling pressure. The four speculative funds that entered at the first board collectively locked their positions, which is not considered a good sign, as the speculative funds that entered in the last two days are clearly short-term funds. Once there is a significant divergence in the sector the next day, these funds will inevitably dump their positions, leading to substantial selling pressure. It is uncertain whether new funds will strongly support it, and moreover, Hangfa's consecutive limit-up volume release is also insufficient. There are many short-term profit-taking positions, and unless there is continuous guidance from funds, once the sector shows significant divergence, there is a high probability that Hangfa will be realized, and it is certain that it will break the previous high the next day. Additionally, it is not considered an absolute front-row player in commercial aerospace, making it almost impossible to continue upgrading while reducing volume. Therefore, the focus for Hangfa the next day should be on the support after a high open and subsequent drop. If the support is good, perhaps we can expect it to continue exhibiting a trend at a high level!
2. ZTE (AI Phones)
In terms of news, the ByteDance Doubao team and ZTE's Nubia smartphone brand jointly announced the creation of AI phones, expected to be released in early December. This is a significant stimulus for the entire AI phone sector, making it the strongest direction in the market today, and ZTE also achieved a strong limit-up due to this positive news!
On the dragon and tiger list after hours, Shandong Road and Jiangsu Road bought over 600 million, while Xinzhai Road and Chengdu were around 400 million in buying. The selling pressure was not large, and without a doubt, strong speculative funds were buying aggressively. As a major player in AI phones, ZTE's performance is remarkable. It will undoubtedly surge the next day, and whether it can establish a trend is key to the sustainability of the entire sector. If the previous strong performance of 360 has driven a good market for AI applications, this time pulling ZTE is also intended to make AI phones a new hotspot. So, there may be a new main line in the market, and whether ZTE can show a trending performance is very critical; it is a barometer for whether this direction can emerge!
3. Shida Group (AI Applications + Strait)
After receiving feedback of 5 advances and 6 setbacks, Shida showed strong buying last Friday, but ultimately retreated. Today, it opened low again, but after a slight decline, strong funds quickly appeared to push it higher. At one point, it surged near the limit-up before retreating. With clear support from the intraday moving averages, it surged again, showing a strong upward trend after a dragon and tiger adjustment, marking its first board performance!
On the dragon and tiger list after hours, Guolian Ningbo bought 250 million, while Wuzhong Avenue continued to increase positions by nearly 70 million, reaching a total holding of 130 million. Selling from Xinzhai Road took profits, and the Wenzhou faction took some chips off the table. This list indicates a decent healthy turnover among speculative funds, but Guolian Ningbo's buying is indeed dominant. Whether it can withstand selling pressure the next day is crucial for its continued performance. Today, the entire AI application direction did show some recovery, but many stocks experienced a surge followed by a retreat. Shida's limit-up indeed seems a bit unsupported. Although it has the backing of the Strait direction, if the AI application sector does not have rear support the next day, it will be difficult to sustain its performance. Therefore, if Shida surges early the next day without enough momentum for a limit-up, it is advisable to take profits!
4. Guosheng Technology (Lithium Batteries)
Guosheng's bidding in the morning was stronger than Daoming's, so after the opening, it was clearly stronger than Daoming. However, Daoming has the backing of the AI phone direction, and soon attracted funds that quickly bought and locked in the limit-up, which had a significant negative impact on Guosheng, leading to a sharp drop due to large funds fleeing. Fortunately, funds quickly stabilized the price but did not actively lock in the limit-up. It continued to see increased volume at high levels, and since the overall market and short-term environment were good, afternoon funds began to support and lock in the limit-up, leading to a high-level poor board performance!
On the dragon and tiger list after hours, all buying was quantitative, and selling from Jiangsu Road took profits of nearly 80 million, leaving little stock remaining. The Shuguang Road that entered on Friday also exited. This list is actually quite good, as Guosheng is clearly facing a serious anomaly of 200% over 30 trading days after its limit-up, and many funds are very cautious about stepping in at this position. Therefore, if quantitative funds can continue to guide after hours, it is actually a plus. If it can challenge the serious anomalies without fear the next day, it can continue to be viewed positively. Today, Daoming was significantly stronger due to the AI phone's strong lock-up, making Guosheng the only highest mark in the lithium battery sector. If it receives strong bidding the next day, there is a possibility that funds will turn it into a cross-year stock, so for Guosheng, the performance of the bidding the next day may represent funds' attitude towards serious short-term anomalies!
5. Daoming Optical (AI Phones + Lithium Batteries)
Daoming's second board was a limit-up, but today’s morning performance was weak. Fortunately, the overall short-term environment of the market today was very good, so there was significant fund support at the opening. However, it was still weaker than Guosheng in the bidding, so there was evident selling pressure after the opening. Nevertheless, given the news from the AI phone sector in the morning, Daoming was quickly selected by funds and rapidly surged to lock in the limit-up, showing a relatively strong 3-board pattern!
Daoming is undoubtedly the absolute leader in the AI phone sector. ZTE's limit-up suggests that this direction may likely be a hotspot in the future. Therefore, Daoming has stronger expectations for the next day. If it is strong enough halfway through, it may even become a limit-up. Thus, for Daoming, the strength of its bidding the next day is crucial for the sustainability of AI phones, and if it offers a relay opportunity, it indicates that AI phones may indeed be a one-day trend!

The United States took eight years to provoke the Russia-Ukraine war, and after more than three years of conflict, it has successfully instigated the China-Japan dispute, declaring "If Taiwan is in trouble, Japan is in trouble!" The U.S. aims to gradually withdraw from the Asia-Pacific, letting China and Japan fight to the death like Russia and Ukraine. If things go poorly, it will incite Germany and NATO to form an axis with Japan, creating a replica of World War II!

The tricks the U.S. played in Ukraine are being directly transferred to the Asia-Pacific. From Ukraine to the Asia-Pacific, the core of the script has never been "democracy against authoritarianism," but rather the systematic consumption of potential competitors by a hegemonic state.
When we extend the timeline by thirty years, we find that the chess players in Washington have been repeating the same operation: first, enticing regional countries to become pawns with security promises, then creating confrontation through extreme pressure, and finally harvesting geopolitical dividends from conflict—only the difference is that Europe used Ukraine, while the Asia-Pacific is targeting Japan.
In Eastern Europe, the U.S. forced Russia into a corner with five rounds of NATO expansion. The verbal promise in 1991 that "NATO will not expand an inch eastward" turned into a bayonet stuck at Moscow's doorstep with the successive inclusion of Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary.
After the color revolution in Ukraine in 2014, the pro-Russian president was overthrown, and the Minsk agreements were tacitly allowed by the West to be torn apart, turning the eight years of shelling in the Donbas region into a chronic poison for the U.S. to consume Russia.
Looking at it now, the essence of this proxy war is using the flesh and blood of Ukraine to deliver $50 billion in arms orders to the U.S. military-industrial complex each year while binding Europe to the energy sanctions chariot, causing inflation in the Eurozone to remain high—until in 2025, when several European countries see anti-aid Ukraine protests, Washington finally realizes that even pawns can get tired.
The script in the Asia-Pacific is being replicated. Starting from the 2010 Diaoyu Islands collision incident, the U.S. has played the role of a "precision arsonist" in the China-Japan conflict.
When Yukio Hatoyama attempted to repair Sino-Japanese relations, the issue of relocating the Futenma base immediately became a noose, strangling the last moderate faction towards China in Japanese politics.
In 2013, when Shinzo Abe visited the Yasukuni Shrine, the U.S. expressed rare "disappointment," not for justice, but out of fear that the fire would get out of control—just like in Ukraine, what the U.S. needs is "controllable bleeding," not direct involvement.
This sense of measure is clearly revealed in Japan's new National Security Strategy of 2024: the U.S. allows Japan to raise defense spending to 2% of GDP and supports its development of "counterstrike capabilities," while consistently blocking key technologies for long-range missiles, ensuring that Tokyo can only be the shooter, not the chess player.
Deeper calculations are hidden in economic accounts. The Russia-Ukraine war has led to a 60% surge in U.S. liquefied natural gas exports to Europe, and the "new battlefield" in the Asia-Pacific also requires an energy card.
During the rising tensions in the South China Sea in 2025, the U.S. instructed the Philippines to provoke at the Second Thomas Shoal while promoting Japan to restart nuclear power—on the surface, it is to respond to the "China threat," but in reality, it is paving the way for U.S. shale gas to enter the East Asian market.
More covertly, there is the reconstruction of the industrial chain. When Japanese car manufacturers saw a decline in sales in China due to the Diaoyu Islands issue, Tesla's super factory in Yokohama just happened to fill the gap. This logic of "the enemy's loss is my profit" is similar to Boeing's stock price soaring during the Ukraine crisis.
The most dangerous foreshadowing is buried in the security system. When NATO Secretary-General visits Japan in 2024, he openly discusses the possibility of a "NATO version for the Asia-Pacific," just like at the 2008 Bucharest Summit when Ukraine was included in NATO's "Membership Action Plan."
Washington is very clear about the strategic significance of the Taiwan issue to China, equivalent to Ukraine's life-and-death line for Russia—this is why, during the sensitive period of the Taiwan Strait situation in 2025, it encourages Japanese politicians to visit Taiwan, throwing out the dangerous rhetoric that "If Taiwan is in trouble, Japan is in trouble."
This operation is reminiscent of NATO's military exercises at the Ukrainian border in 2021: using third-party security promises to put regional countries on the fire while hiding behind the scenes to sell arms.
In the 1930s, the U.S. supplied weapons to England and France through the Lend-Lease Act while turning a blind eye to fascist expansion, only being forced into war after the Pearl Harbor incident.
Now, what Washington is replicating on both ends of the Eurasian continent is this "offshore balancing" strategy: consuming Russia with Ukraine in Eastern Europe; consuming China with Japan in the Asia-Pacific.
The difference is that this time the U.S. has learned its lesson—starting in 2025, the U.S. military will begin withdrawing from Guam, leaving front-line bases to the Japan Self-Defense Forces, just as it let Poland and the Baltic states take the lead in the Ukraine war.
This combination of "strategic contraction + proxy expansion" avoids the risks of direct involvement while continuously harvesting the dividends of geopolitical conflicts.
However, Washington has overlooked a key variable: the Asia-Pacific is not Eastern Europe.
The industrial chains of China, Japan, and South Korea are deeply intertwined, and in 2024, the trade volume among the three countries surpassed $800 billion. This economic reality of "you have me in you" makes it difficult for the script of proxy war to be completely replicated.
More importantly, China is not Russia—when the U.S. tries to use the "Taiwan card" to replicate the "Ukraine model," it forgets the lesson of 1950: in matters involving core interests, any coercion will only invite a counterattack.
During the military exercises surrounding Taiwan in 2025, the Japan Self-Defense Forces rarely remained silent, just like Germany's refusal to supply main battle tanks to Ukraine in 2022—pawns are beginning to realize that the fate of cannon fodder has never been in their own hands.
This proxy war spanning Eurasia is essentially the twilight struggle of American hegemony. As dollar hegemony weakens and supply chain returns are hindered, Washington can only rely on creating conflicts to maintain influence.
From Ukraine to the Asia-Pacific, the script seems intricate, but in reality, it is riddled with flaws: Europe is waking up to "strategic autonomy," and East Asia sees through the costs of "security outsourcing."
History will ultimately prove that any conspiracy to tie regional countries to the war chariot will be crushed by geopolitical realities—just like during the Cuban Missile Crisis, those who play with fire will eventually get burned.

A-shares open with a surge: clear signals for continued rebound, tomorrow's gap filling is a key test
Today, A-shares saw a significant rebound, marking a strong start in December. This trend clearly indicates that the market's rebound and recovery are gaining more recognition from funds. Unless something unexpected happens, the market will likely launch an attack on the upward gap tomorrow, which will also become an important test for the short-term market.
1. Sustained volume above 3900 points strengthens the logic of the rebound
Last Friday, the market obviously saw reduced volume, while today welcomed a substantial rebound that closed above 3900 points, with the core support coming from effective volume expansion. Looking back at previous trends, there were multiple instances last week of sharp rises followed by declines, primarily due to insufficient volume leading to a short-term arbitrage pattern of “raising and cashing out, then buying low on the decline.” However, after today's opening, volume continued to increase, and market sentiment and recognition of the rebound significantly improved, laying the foundation for the continuation of the trend. Based on the current volume breakout above 3900 points, there is still room for further upward expansion in the short-term rebound.
2. Clear rebound targets: filling gaps + aiming for 3950 points, slow gains have greater sustainability
For the rebound target, long-term followers of my stock recommendations have already made it clear - the primary task is to fill the gap between 3912-3927 points above. Today, the market reached a high of 3914 points, partially filling the gap, indicating a positive attitude from funds towards this target. Although there is some selling pressure near 3900 points, the buying support is still acceptable. Given the current trend of slow gains, the probability of fully filling the gap is quite high. If more following funds can be attracted into the market, the possibility of hitting the 30-day moving average (around 3950 points) cannot be ruled out. It is important to note that during the rebound, there will likely be repeated conflicts between bulls and bears, and compared to a rapid surge, the current slow gains are more conducive to maintaining a profit-making effect and avoiding a quick market adjustment.
3. Tomorrow's test is coming: volume becomes the key to filling the gap, divergence may intensify
If tomorrow's opening continues the inertia of rising, it will enter the gap area, and filling the gap will enter a crucial phase. It is expected that the struggle between bulls and bears will become more intense. For retail investors, the core focus tomorrow remains on volume - December, being the last month of the year, sees funding attitudes generally leaning towards caution, and changes in transaction amount are the core indicators reflecting fund intentions. Today's breakout above 3900 points requires increased volume, and tomorrow's gap filling also depends on volume support. If tomorrow's transaction amount decreases compared to the previous day, the market may fall into oscillation, necessitating continued accumulation near the gap. Based on the recent pattern of “reduced volume the day after a significant volume rebound,” I predict a high probability of reduced volume divergence tomorrow, but as long as the gap remains unfilled, there is no need to rush for results; the focus should be on the volume changes in the first hour of trading.
4. December operation strategy: grasp thematic rotation, hold on to oversold stocks and wait
December is likely to be a relatively friendly month for retail investors. Although there is no absolute main line, the probability of multiple thematic blooms is quite high, and the market will still be characterized by structural trends and sector rotation. Expectations for various policies and industrial themes at the end of the year will become important clues for fund opportunities. Today, the collaboration between Byte and ZTE on the “Doubao Phone” has spurred a collective boom in themes such as consumer electronics, AI phones, and electronic components. Although the sustainability of such thematic expansions is limited, it is favorable for retail investors holding stocks waiting to rise, while those chasing gains need to be cautious. In terms of operations, it is recommended to choose to hold stocks and wait for rotation; when themes ferment and rise, profits can be taken at highs; at the same time, attention can be paid to oversold sectors. Today's performances of banks rebounding, cyclical non-ferrous metals rising, and consumer sectors rebounding also confirm the existence of rotation opportunities. The current sector seesaw effect is not obvious, and oversold sectors still have room for catch-up gains.

12.1 Today's Listed Funds:
Zhongshan East Road: Bought Zhongxing Telecommunications 638 million, bought Jereh 80.66 million, sold Dongtianwei 81.20 million,
Chengdu Series: Bought Zhongxing Telecommunications 392 million, bought Meiyan Jixiang 70.79 million, bought Beilong Precision 20.89 million, bought Furong Technology 19.33 million, sold Sichuan Jinding 21.47 million,
Ningbo Sangtian Road: Bought Aerospace Development 78.06 million, bought Furri Electronics 22.80 million,
Shangtang Road: Bought Suhao Huihong 45.56 million, sold Huanrui Century 55.76 million,
Ruicixian: Sold Suhao Huihong 12.40 million,
Shandong Gang: Sold Aerospace Power 59.59 million, bought Meiyan Jixiang 23.16 million,
Zuoshou Xinyi: Bought Guangqi Technology 1.1 billion, bought Guanghe T 76.00 million
Low-position Digging: Sold Haide Shares 5.01 million, sold Kexiang Shares 17.08 million, sold True Love Home 18.91 million,
Fang Xinxia: Sold Rongji Software 22.84 million, sold Huanrui Century 31.43 million, sold Aerospace Power 74.89 million,
Summary: Today's activity level is average. Chengdu Series Zhongshan East Road participated heavily in AI phones; Xinyi participated heavily in new materials direction; Sangtian Road participated in commercial aerospace direction.

Tomorrow is the 2nd trading day of this month for A-shares. How will the market perform? Below is my analysis:
Today, the market opened high and fluctuated upward to close, forming a small bullish line. Although it did not achieve my expected medium bullish line, its performance is still acceptable and at least did not disappoint many investors. Given this, will it continue to rise tomorrow? I believe it will not only continue to rise but may even have a larger increase than today. In fact, it is very likely to form a medium bullish line at that time. Why do I say this? The reason is simple; the significant increase in trading volume compared to yesterday is evident. As the saying goes: where there is volume, there is a market trend, indicating that it will continue to rise in the future and may even accelerate.
The specific trend is shown in the chart below.
Of course, all of the above analysis is a personal opinion, for reference only, and not investment advice. Investing has risks, and one must be cautious when entering the market.

The United States never expected: the conflict between China and Japan has become so fierce, and Modi and Lee Jae-myung, these two old foxes, have suddenly emerged. Recently, high-level officials in the United States have clearly expressed their strong support for Japan, stating: 'Our commitment to Japan's defense is very firm.' The U.S. hopes to use this approach to stabilize Asia, so that China and these Asian countries do not make things difficult for Japan.
First, let's talk about why the conflict between China and Japan is so intense; the root lies in Japanese Prime Minister Kishi Nobuo's words. This woman truly has a lot of nerve, openly stating that 'if something happens in Taiwan,' it could constitute a 'crisis of Japan's existence.' Such words blatantly touch the red line.
Taiwan is Chinese territory, as clearly stated in the Postdam Declaration after World War II. Japan signed the surrender document back then and must recognize it. Now, they are turning around and using the Taiwan issue to create trouble, which is essentially supporting 'Taiwan independence' and provoking China's sovereignty. Can China tolerate this? Absolutely not!
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs immediately refuted this, saying she is either ignorant or deliberately distorting history. Moreover, it wasn't just talk; actual countermeasures followed closely behind.
The review of Japanese films in China has been suspended, and over twenty performances by Japanese musicians have been canceled. Chinese tourists have also rushed to cancel their hotel bookings in Japan, and even people in Japan's entertainment industry have criticized her, saying that her words have destroyed cultural exchange. This whole situation is purely the result of Kishi's own actions.
Seeing China and Japan in a quarrel, the U.S. hurriedly jumped in to support Japan, claiming 'the commitment to Japan's defense is very firm.' In plain terms, they want to use military deterrence to intimidate others, preventing Asian countries from daring to act against Japan, in order to make Japan their pawn in curbing China in the Asia-Pacific region.
But the U.S. doesn't realize that today's Asia is no longer like it was during the Cold War; who would want to be its little follower? They themselves are pursuing 'America First,' always calculating against allies. Previously, they imposed tariffs on India, forcing India to urgently seek other avenues; who can trust such an ally?
At this critical moment, Modi took the initiative. This Indian Prime Minister is well-known for his ability to calculate, an absolute 'old fox.'
Just after accepting a 10 trillion yen investment from Japan and signing a cooperation agreement on rare earths and chips, he turned around in an interview to say, 'China-India relations are crucial.' This statement is simply pouring cold water on the U.S. and Japan's 'decoupling from China' plan. Guess what? By 2025, the trade volume between China and India has increased by 12%. Modi is simultaneously benefiting from Japan's technology and funds while still leveraging the dividends of the Chinese market, without missing out on either side.
The U.S. is trying to pull India into the QUAD four-nation exercises, wanting it to help restrict China's rare earth exports, but Modi flatly refused, making his position very clear: cooperation is fine, but if you want to tie me to a side, forget it. He knows full well that India's economy is struggling, with a multitude of livelihood issues. If he really confronts China and loses the Chinese market, the people will take to the streets in anger.
Moreover, with India's general elections next year, he is just taking advantage of this 'balancing act' in diplomacy to divert domestic conflicts and attract voters; this calculation is spot on.
Following closely, South Korea's Lee Jae-myung has also emerged. This person is even more straightforward than Modi. Currently, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol is wholeheartedly pro-U.S. and pro-Japan, disregarding public opposition to reconcile the 'comfort women' issue with Japan, and is following the U.S. to sanction China, having already lost the public's support.
As the biggest opposition figure, Lee Jae-myung could not miss this opportunity. The G20 summit was supposed to be a routine meeting among China, Japan, and South Korea, but he deliberately changed the 'trilateral order' to 'Korea-China-Japan,' a detail that speaks volumes about his stance.
He has also publicly expressed a desire to visit China soon, while only mentioning 'stabilizing and managing relations' with Japan; anyone with clear eyes can see where he intends to lean.
South Korea's economy is heavily dependent on China; China accounts for 30% of its trade volume. Which profitable industries, such as semiconductors and automobiles, can afford to be separated from the Chinese market? Lee Jae-myung is not foolish; he knows that confronting China alongside the U.S. would be political suicide.
Thus, he is not only aligning himself with China but has also rejected the U.S. military's 'strategic flexibility' plan, fearing that South Korea could become the frontline of great power confrontations. He even went to Turkey to discuss nuclear energy cooperation, just to secure a way out for South Korea. This entire operation has stabilized the Chinese market while also capitalizing on the South Korean public's anti-Japan sentiment to criticize Yoon Suk-yeol. He has truly mastered the art of political opportunism.
The U.S. must be confused now; it originally thought that supporting Japan would sway Asian countries to its side, but Modi and Lee Jae-myung are not playing by the usual rules.
Both of these individuals have their own agendas: Modi seeks India's status as a great power and his own votes, while Lee Jae-myung aims for South Korea's governing power. For them, the U.S. commitment and Japan's fate are merely tools to be utilized.
In fact, this is not surprising; Asian countries have long understood that engaging in zero-sum games with the U.S. brings no benefits. It is better to engage in solid cooperation.
After the RCEP came into effect, the proportion of trade within Asia has reached 58%, and economic ties are more effective than any ideology. China can provide markets, technology, and long-term stable cooperation, which is far more substantial than the U.S. that continually shouts slogans and sends warships to intimidate.
Looking at Japan now, it is in an awkward position. Following the U.S. to restrict semiconductor exports to China, export volumes are expected to drop by 27% by 2025, while its own economy shows no signs of improvement, and the market has lost a significant share to South Korea.
Kishi Nobuo's remarks have not only provoked China but have also received considerable backlash domestically in Japan. Former Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama has criticized her, saying she is undermining regional stability.
The U.S. claims to support Japan, but when it comes to actual matters, it won't provide a safety net at all. Trump has not publicly commented on this issue to this day, clearly fearing being dragged down by Japan.
Ultimately, the U.S. has completely misjudged the situation. It thought that relying on military alliances could control Asia, but it forgot that today's nations are very shrewd and will not go against their own interests.
Modi and Lee Jae-myung's emergence is a wake-up call for the U.S.: the rules in Asia are no longer dictated by it. Now, it's not about who has more warships or older treaties, but rather who can genuinely cooperate and provide benefits.

December 1st closing review: The Shanghai Composite Index soared to 3914 points, with a significant increase in volume, marking the start of a bullish main wave. The Shenzhen Composite Index and the ChiNext have rebounded significantly, filling the gap. I remain firmly bullish and will not reduce my positions, believing that persistence will yield returns.
The Nikkei Index dropped by 1.89%, with stocks, bonds, and currencies all falling sharply; it’s time for a drink at dinner. The Korean stock market declined slightly, while global markets saw more declines than gains. The Shanghai Composite Index rose strongly, unaffected by external markets, showing an independent trend that will continue to rise significantly.
The trading volume in both markets reached 1.87 trillion, a substantial increase of 290 billion compared to last Friday. I repeatedly emphasize that rising on low volume is a good thing, indicating very little selling pressure, and it will continue to rise. Once the trading volume increases significantly, the rise will accelerate; this is how the market develops.
The major trend of a weak Shanghai and strong Shenzhen will continue for a long time. The ChiNext rose by 1.31%, artificial intelligence increased by 2.42%, communication equipment rose by 1.66%, and chips increased by 1.81%. The high-tech sector still has a large space for growth, and it is advisable to add positions on dips.
In the strong sectors of traditional industries, rare earths rose by 2.18%, chemicals increased by 1.07%, and leading ultra-hard materials rose by 5.94%. Securities, electricity, and the Hang Seng Tech all saw slight increases. The strong sectors of high-tech and traditional industries are the two main lines of the December market.
In a bull market, chasing after highs and cutting losses is not advisable; avoiding declines can also lead to missing out on significant gains. November saw a significant drop, and those who exited in the bottom area missed the big rise; chasing high makes them fear a second bottom test, leading to a dilemma now. The outlook for December is very optimistic, and the three major indices will rise significantly. Wishing everyone good luck on Tuesday!