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Reuters Breakingviews predicts 2026:
In 2022, during the FTX collapse, the Biden administration considered cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin not their problem and held a skeptical attitude towards crypto. Now the situation is very different. Trump and his family are deeply involved in the crypto space. If a collapse similar to FTX occurs in 2026, he might intervene to stabilize the market.
In 2022, during the FTX collapse, the Biden administration considered cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin not their problem and held a skeptical attitude towards crypto. Now the situation is very different. Trump and his family are deeply involved in the crypto space. If a collapse similar to FTX occurs in 2026, he might intervene to stabilize the market.
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JPMorgan Chase launches its first "tokenized money market fund" product, marking further participation of mainstream financial institutions on Wall Street in crypto asset infrastructure. #比特币流动性
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Obedient
$BTC $ETH $ACT
The wind has changed again! The 'big show' of the Federal Reserve Chairman is more thrilling than a Wall Street drama!
Hassett is back in the game! According to the latest predicted data, his probability of being elected has soared to 56%, firmly taking the top seat again. His old rival Walsh's probability is 22%, while current board member Waller is at 12%.
Ambush Mask PU PP IES社区入口欢迎加入🎉('ω')🎉
Within a few days, the wind has drastically changed, and the core issue is: who can satisfy Trump more?
These two individuals represent two completely different paths:
· Hassett: belongs to the 'compliant' faction. He advocates aggressively lowering interest rates to stimulate the economy, aligning his thoughts closely with Trump. If he takes office, the market may be excited in the short term due to expectations of 'liquidity'.
· Walsh: belongs to the 'independent' faction. He is an old acquaintance of Wall Street and has criticized the Federal Reserve's loose policies. If he takes power, he may lower interest rates while tightening the financial system's faucet, potentially leading the market to face 'withdrawal' pains in the short term.
This personnel change is essentially a game between White House politics and the independence of the Federal Reserve. For us, this means that future market fluctuations will be more influenced by personnel news from Washington.
Who do you think will take office? What impact do you think it will have on the cryptocurrency market? Let's discuss.
The wind has changed again! The 'big show' of the Federal Reserve Chairman is more thrilling than a Wall Street drama!
Hassett is back in the game! According to the latest predicted data, his probability of being elected has soared to 56%, firmly taking the top seat again. His old rival Walsh's probability is 22%, while current board member Waller is at 12%.
Ambush Mask PU PP IES社区入口欢迎加入🎉('ω')🎉
Within a few days, the wind has drastically changed, and the core issue is: who can satisfy Trump more?
These two individuals represent two completely different paths:
· Hassett: belongs to the 'compliant' faction. He advocates aggressively lowering interest rates to stimulate the economy, aligning his thoughts closely with Trump. If he takes office, the market may be excited in the short term due to expectations of 'liquidity'.
· Walsh: belongs to the 'independent' faction. He is an old acquaintance of Wall Street and has criticized the Federal Reserve's loose policies. If he takes power, he may lower interest rates while tightening the financial system's faucet, potentially leading the market to face 'withdrawal' pains in the short term.
This personnel change is essentially a game between White House politics and the independence of the Federal Reserve. For us, this means that future market fluctuations will be more influenced by personnel news from Washington.
Who do you think will take office? What impact do you think it will have on the cryptocurrency market? Let's discuss.
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Really?
Some Layer-2 projects merging or "big whale entering" news has been leaked in advance. A trader reportedly used some Rumour.app to capture the news, with prices fluctuating nearly 290% in 18 minutes.👽
Some Layer-2 projects merging or "big whale entering" news has been leaked in advance. A trader reportedly used some Rumour.app to capture the news, with prices fluctuating nearly 290% in 18 minutes.👽
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A recent report claims that North Korean hackers stole over 2 billion dollars in cryptocurrency in 2025, with one single heist reaching as high as 1.5 billion dollars (allegedly targeting Bybit). This has sparked intense discussions within the community about security and real-world hacking capabilities, with some questioning whether insider leaks led to the soaring success rate 😵 #黑客攻击
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I saw many people recommending Abu Dhabi😳
朱老师区块链
--
The ranking of global wealthy people's migration trends, this is the migration ranking for individuals with a net worth of 1 million dollars. The first is the UAE, the second is the USA, while the UK and East Asia have the highest outflow. The UAE attracts a large number of people due to low taxes and high quality of life, while East Asia has such a high outflow rate despite being a developing country; in fact, the gap is quite large, and comrades still need to work hard. $ETH
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Some thoughts on Hainan's closure.
1️⃣ Hainan's closure ≠ the release of digital assets.
The EF account addresses cross-border funding path issues, not asset attribute endorsement. For transactions, this means: the policy uncertainty premium has not disappeared; it has just been rephrased.
2️⃣ The essence of a 'clean U' is interpretability, not a decentralized label.
What truly determines whether something can circulate long-term is whether, in extreme censorship scenarios, the source, counterpart, and risk attribution can be clearly explained. On-chain transparency ≠ regulatory acceptability; these are two completely different dimensions.
3️⃣ High-yield stablecoins are a risk signal, not a moat.
The EF account addresses cross-border funding path issues, not asset attribute endorsement. For transactions, this means: the policy uncertainty premium has not disappeared; it has just been rephrased.
2️⃣ The essence of a 'clean U' is interpretability, not a decentralized label.
What truly determines whether something can circulate long-term is whether, in extreme censorship scenarios, the source, counterpart, and risk attribution can be clearly explained. On-chain transparency ≠ regulatory acceptability; these are two completely different dimensions.
3️⃣ High-yield stablecoins are a risk signal, not a moat.
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In trading, I tend to treat this type of content as a sentiment indicator rather than a fundamental confirmation.
清风btc
--
Stop staring at the exchanges! The underground outlets have opened after Hainan's closure, and the countdown to the legalization of USDT has begun, 365 days.
Author: Qingfeng btc (a financial veteran just back from a research trip in Haikou)
Bro, stop fiddling with those small change in the OTC group, the real underground outlets have already been turned on in Hainan.
Last night, I heard this chilling statement in a private club in Haikou. Sitting across the table were a few old-money folks from Jiangsu and Zhejiang who had just opened their EF (multi-functional free trade) accounts.
Just today, on December 19, 2025, Hainan officially closed its borders.
The whole internet is buzzing about buying iPhones at lower prices and luxury goods being tax-free. Naive! Those are just smoke screens for ordinary tourists. The real big sharks are eyeing the financial vacuum created by the first-tier being opened and the second-tier being controlled after the closure.
Bro, stop fiddling with those small change in the OTC group, the real underground outlets have already been turned on in Hainan.
Last night, I heard this chilling statement in a private club in Haikou. Sitting across the table were a few old-money folks from Jiangsu and Zhejiang who had just opened their EF (multi-functional free trade) accounts.
Just today, on December 19, 2025, Hainan officially closed its borders.
The whole internet is buzzing about buying iPhones at lower prices and luxury goods being tax-free. Naive! Those are just smoke screens for ordinary tourists. The real big sharks are eyeing the financial vacuum created by the first-tier being opened and the second-tier being controlled after the closure.
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Stablecoin giant Tether $USDT proposed a full cash acquisition of the Italian football club Juventus for about 1.1 billion euros, which was rejected by the former owner Exor.😅 #稳定币
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Coinbase announces the expansion of services, allowing users to trade stocks and prediction market contracts on the platform, planning to use USDC as a bridging tool. This marks Coinbase's transition from a pure cryptocurrency exchange to a more comprehensive financial trading platform. #coinbase
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SoFi Technologies announced the launch of SoFiUSD — a 1:1 cash-backed US dollar stablecoin, designed to support financial uses such as trading, payments, and remittances. The company's stock price rose slightly after the announcement, reflecting the market's positive feedback on traditional financial institutions' further involvement in the crypto business.
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Insiders revealed that OpenAI is planning a new round of funding of up to 100 billion dollars. If successfully completed, the valuation could rise to 830 billion dollars, with the earliest landing in the first quarter of next year. SoftBank has committed 30 billion dollars and is selling NVIDIA shares to raise funds, with Disney and sovereign funds also participating. #OpenAI
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Asset allocation, BNB has always been held
AB Kuai Dong
--
I listened to CZ's year-end online speech tonight
1. The current focus of personal work remains on charity Giggle, entrepreneurial support YZi Labs, and building the BNB ecosystem, while providing cryptocurrency strategic advice to various countries.
2. Predictive markets are still a relatively early stage, previously during the U.S. election, Polymarket had good trading volume, and next year's World Cup or the next hot topic is a good opportunity for all prediction platforms to capture market share.
3. All predictive markets will reference each other in the future, so the execution ability of the team is very important, as needs may change at any time.
4. All AI trading agents have a problem: if they are very profitable, why sell them to others? So if an AI can really make money, then fundraising should be very simple, but I believe AI will be widely used by traders in the future, though most algorithms will be different.
5. Regarding the new stablecoin U, he believes that competition is a good thing. Nowadays, USDT and USDC do not provide much yield, and he hopes for further stablecoin developments, mentioning FDUSD and USD1.
6. The data from the BNB chain this year is very good, possibly one of the best public chains in terms of trading volume this year. He encourages more developers to build on it.
1. The current focus of personal work remains on charity Giggle, entrepreneurial support YZi Labs, and building the BNB ecosystem, while providing cryptocurrency strategic advice to various countries.
2. Predictive markets are still a relatively early stage, previously during the U.S. election, Polymarket had good trading volume, and next year's World Cup or the next hot topic is a good opportunity for all prediction platforms to capture market share.
3. All predictive markets will reference each other in the future, so the execution ability of the team is very important, as needs may change at any time.
4. All AI trading agents have a problem: if they are very profitable, why sell them to others? So if an AI can really make money, then fundraising should be very simple, but I believe AI will be widely used by traders in the future, though most algorithms will be different.
5. Regarding the new stablecoin U, he believes that competition is a good thing. Nowadays, USDT and USDC do not provide much yield, and he hopes for further stablecoin developments, mentioning FDUSD and USD1.
6. The data from the BNB chain this year is very good, possibly one of the best public chains in terms of trading volume this year. He encourages more developers to build on it.
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The new Federal Reserve chair candidate has become the biggest gossip focus: Powell's term will end in May 2026, and Trump plans to nominate a successor in early 2026; the current popular candidates are jokingly referred to as 'the two Kevins' - Kevin Hassett (advocating for aggressive rate cuts) and Kevin Warsh (former governor, recently visited the White House, emphasizing providing interest rate advice to the president) #美联储何时降息？
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On-chain data shows that whales holding 10–10,000 $BTC have been continuously increasing their positions since the end of November; meanwhile, the number of active addresses has decreased by 2% to 692,000, with the proportion of profitable addresses dropping from 95% to 91%, indicating a clear cooling of retail interest.
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Data invalidation and order invalidation are essentially driven by trends rather than news. Before trend confirmation, the optimal strategy is to not bet on direction, but to trade structure.
$ETH 2025-12-17, yesterday the non-farm payroll data was released and it was relatively positive but still flat. Yesterday there were hundreds of thousands of ETH buy orders between 3000-2900, which should have led to a price surge, but currently it hasn't started a rally. It feels more like the bulls have run out of steam and are just luring in more buyers to gather fuel. Considering the larger cycle, I have been worried that the decline trend of the 3-day moving average is about to be confirmed. If the 3-day moving average downtrend is confirmed, it is highly likely to break below 2620 and continue a deep correction trend, with the next target at 2250 and the ultimate goal around 1800-1600. If it can effectively stop the decline, it should be the bottom of the next upward cycle. To break this downtrend, it needs to violently surge above 3345 in the next two days and stabilize, but I personally feel that this is difficult to achieve, as the current position is not like the previous one. If the current position breaks through 3345 and stabilizes, it would have already broken the upper boundary of the descending channel, breaking this downtrend, which is possible, but the likelihood is really low.
Summary: Today's strategy is relatively easy to execute; do not trade during the consolidation, just prepare to position after the consolidation is broken.
Bullish Strategy: Strong support below at 2850-2800 with 500 million buy orders. If it first moves south to around 2800 and consumes the liquidity, getting support and then quickly rebounds with volume to break through 3045-3100-3165-3345 and stabilize, it would officially break this downtrend and start a bullish trend. If the upward momentum is not strong, and it moves in a volatile upward manner, it may reach 3045-3145-3210, where it will encounter resistance and begin to decline again. You can place limit sell orders at these points for phased profit-taking, keeping a portion for a potential breakout. If it truly breaks through 3345 and stabilizes, then wait for a pullback to add to your position.
Bearish Strategy: Observe resistance levels at 3045-3145-3165-3210-3310-3345 for potential shorts. Strong resistance above at the 3000 level, but primarily formed by a single order, so it's likely that this order will be withdrawn, allowing for a breakout. Therefore, just monitor the order book at the 3000 level. If the order is suddenly withdrawn, it means a breakout above 3000 is likely. If this order does not get withdrawn and is instead eaten away little by little, and repeatedly fails to break through 3000, then 3020-3045 may be the top. You can wait for a pin bar to short, placing the stop loss at the top. If the stop loss is hit, then watch and try to short again at the top.
{future}(ETHUSDT)
Summary: Today's strategy is relatively easy to execute; do not trade during the consolidation, just prepare to position after the consolidation is broken.
Bullish Strategy: Strong support below at 2850-2800 with 500 million buy orders. If it first moves south to around 2800 and consumes the liquidity, getting support and then quickly rebounds with volume to break through 3045-3100-3165-3345 and stabilize, it would officially break this downtrend and start a bullish trend. If the upward momentum is not strong, and it moves in a volatile upward manner, it may reach 3045-3145-3210, where it will encounter resistance and begin to decline again. You can place limit sell orders at these points for phased profit-taking, keeping a portion for a potential breakout. If it truly breaks through 3345 and stabilizes, then wait for a pullback to add to your position.
Bearish Strategy: Observe resistance levels at 3045-3145-3165-3210-3310-3345 for potential shorts. Strong resistance above at the 3000 level, but primarily formed by a single order, so it's likely that this order will be withdrawn, allowing for a breakout. Therefore, just monitor the order book at the 3000 level. If the order is suddenly withdrawn, it means a breakout above 3000 is likely. If this order does not get withdrawn and is instead eaten away little by little, and repeatedly fails to break through 3000, then 3020-3045 may be the top. You can wait for a pin bar to short, placing the stop loss at the top. If the stop loss is hit, then watch and try to short again at the top.
{future}(ETHUSDT)
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The Contradictory Nature of the Latest U.S. Non-Farm Data
From data analysis, policy deduction to market games, the linkage between this round of non-farm data and the cryptocurrency market can be summarized as a "weak balance under threefold contradictions." Combined with current key variables, here are a few judgments to share:
Firstly, the "contradictory nature" of the non-farm data is essentially a "structural distortion," rather than a true reflection of the labor market. The addition of 119000 appears to exceed expectations, but the core shortcomings are significant:
First, employment growth is concentrated in part-time dominated industries such as education and health, with weak growth in full-time positions;
Secondly, the previous value has been significantly revised down, coupled with data statistical errors caused by the government shutdown (the Labor Department has indicated that the standard error is higher than usual), with actual employment resilience far weaker than the surface numbers. And with the unemployment rate soaring to 4.44% (a nearly four-year high) and involuntary unemployment surging, it precisely hits the Federal Reserve's policy-sensitive point of "employment downside risk," which also reserves policy space for future easing—not every strong data locks in tightening, and a high unemployment rate does not necessarily lead to interest rate cuts, but rather a continuation of the game of "weak reality + strong expectations."
Firstly, the "contradictory nature" of the non-farm data is essentially a "structural distortion," rather than a true reflection of the labor market. The addition of 119000 appears to exceed expectations, but the core shortcomings are significant:
First, employment growth is concentrated in part-time dominated industries such as education and health, with weak growth in full-time positions;
Secondly, the previous value has been significantly revised down, coupled with data statistical errors caused by the government shutdown (the Labor Department has indicated that the standard error is higher than usual), with actual employment resilience far weaker than the surface numbers. And with the unemployment rate soaring to 4.44% (a nearly four-year high) and involuntary unemployment surging, it precisely hits the Federal Reserve's policy-sensitive point of "employment downside risk," which also reserves policy space for future easing—not every strong data locks in tightening, and a high unemployment rate does not necessarily lead to interest rate cuts, but rather a continuation of the game of "weak reality + strong expectations."
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The structural distortion of non-farm data combined with the internal divergences within the Federal Reserve has determined that a pause in interest rate cuts in January has become the mainstream expectation. $BTC is temporarily trapped in the fluctuation range of 82000-88000; the risk of carry trade fund withdrawal triggered by the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike expectations may become a key variable in breaking through the support at 85000. #美国非农数据超预期 #加密市场观察
$ETH
{future}(ETHUSDT)
Non-farm payrolls disappoint vs unemployment rate hits high! The long and short battle in the crypto market is here, 一起聊聊呗
Having just experienced a 4000-point plunge in BTC, the non-farm report throws out contradictory signals: new jobs increased by 119,000, far exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate surged to 4.44%, a new high since 2021. The crypto market is facing an ultimate choice amidst policy fog!
This delayed data release hides secrets: the seemingly strong non-farm jobs rely on part-time dominated sectors like education and healthcare, and the previous value has been significantly revised down, raising doubts about actual employment resilience. As the unemployment rate approaches the psychological barrier of 4.5%, the number of involuntary unemployed people surges, exposing potential weakness in the labor market, which precisely hits the Federal Reserve's pain point of "concern about the downside risks in employment."
Currently, the internal divisions within the Federal Reserve have become intense, with three dissenting votes in the December rate cut decision. Doves advocate for aggressive rate cuts, while hawks insist on holding steady, and expectations for a pause in rate cuts during Powell's term are rising. For the crypto market, this uncertainty gives rise to a "weak oscillation" pattern: strong non-farm figures suppress easing expectations, the dollar gets short-term support, but the rising unemployment rate leaves room for liquidity easing. Coupled with the implicit support from the Fed's halt in balance sheet reduction, BTC is engaging in a tug-of-war at the critical support level of 85000.
Technical risks remain: the BTC daily RSI is below 50; if it loses 85000, it will test 82000. If it can break through 88000 with the help of easing expectations, it may alleviate short-term downward pressure, but one must remain vigilant against the potential impact of rising rate hike expectations from the Bank of Japan, as the exit of arbitrage funds may exacerbate volatility.
This data game is far from over; the direction of the Fed's policy in January will be a key variable. Do you think BTC can hold the 85000 support and rebound, or will it break down to test 82000? Will the Fed pause rate cuts in January?
Musk concept little dog 🐶【P.u.p.p.i.e.s】is pretty good, you might want to check it out!
#美国非农数据超预期
#BTC走势分析
{future}(ETHUSDT)
Non-farm payrolls disappoint vs unemployment rate hits high! The long and short battle in the crypto market is here, 一起聊聊呗
Having just experienced a 4000-point plunge in BTC, the non-farm report throws out contradictory signals: new jobs increased by 119,000, far exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate surged to 4.44%, a new high since 2021. The crypto market is facing an ultimate choice amidst policy fog!
This delayed data release hides secrets: the seemingly strong non-farm jobs rely on part-time dominated sectors like education and healthcare, and the previous value has been significantly revised down, raising doubts about actual employment resilience. As the unemployment rate approaches the psychological barrier of 4.5%, the number of involuntary unemployed people surges, exposing potential weakness in the labor market, which precisely hits the Federal Reserve's pain point of "concern about the downside risks in employment."
Currently, the internal divisions within the Federal Reserve have become intense, with three dissenting votes in the December rate cut decision. Doves advocate for aggressive rate cuts, while hawks insist on holding steady, and expectations for a pause in rate cuts during Powell's term are rising. For the crypto market, this uncertainty gives rise to a "weak oscillation" pattern: strong non-farm figures suppress easing expectations, the dollar gets short-term support, but the rising unemployment rate leaves room for liquidity easing. Coupled with the implicit support from the Fed's halt in balance sheet reduction, BTC is engaging in a tug-of-war at the critical support level of 85000.
Technical risks remain: the BTC daily RSI is below 50; if it loses 85000, it will test 82000. If it can break through 88000 with the help of easing expectations, it may alleviate short-term downward pressure, but one must remain vigilant against the potential impact of rising rate hike expectations from the Bank of Japan, as the exit of arbitrage funds may exacerbate volatility.
This data game is far from over; the direction of the Fed's policy in January will be a key variable. Do you think BTC can hold the 85000 support and rebound, or will it break down to test 82000? Will the Fed pause rate cuts in January?
Musk concept little dog 🐶【P.u.p.p.i.e.s】is pretty good, you might want to check it out!
#美国非农数据超预期
#BTC走势分析
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USNonFarmPayrollReport
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Breaking News 🚨
The Fed will release the #GDP report today at 8:30 AM (ET) 📊$BTC
• Below 3.1% — Positive support for crypto
• Around 3.2% — Market expected level
• Above 3.3% — Pressure and risk likely to increase..$BNB
A very important data point for the markets 👀
#USNonFarmPayrollReport
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