On the D1 timeframe, BTC dropped sharply and is now reacting at a major lower support zone. Price swept liquidity and buyers stepped in, and we will have several scenarios:
Scenario 1 (Higher Probability):
- BTC BTCUSD may still make one more sharp move down. This would likely form a long-wick candle that sweeps below support, similar to the Oct 21 setup. Price could dip into the $80k–$83k zone, grab liquidity, and then bounce.
- From there, BTC could form a double bottom, regain strength, and push higher in a much healthier structure. This kind of move fits a patient, low-risk trading approach.
Scenario 2 (Popular Narrative):
- Many believe BTC already broke the short-term downtrend and is ready to rally. This view is spreading fast across crypto news and social media.
- However, the breakout lacks strong momentum. Recent candles have small bodies, showing hesitation. If BTC reaches the $92k–$94k resistance, rejection is still very possible.
Macro Context Matters: Safe-haven assets like gold and silver remain in strong uptrends. This suggests capital is still favoring safety over high-risk assets like BTC, which supports the pullback-first scenario.
Worst-Case Scenario:
A 2022-style downtrend would require time. In the last cycle, BTC spent around 78 days correcting and distributing after breaking the MA200 before a full bearish phase was confirmed. We are not there yet.
-> Stay patient. If scenario 1 or 2 plays out, there will be opportunity. If not, de-risking later is still an option.
