Atlantis-初心

Using contract clearing method to predict the downward point:

1 As shown in Chart 1: After a significant drop in $BTC, the lower edge of the trading range is 106500. To completely clear the long positions in the trading range, a 20% drop is required, meaning the clearing point is 85000. Today's low of 95600 has already dropped by 10%, and the clearing distance has covered half. There may be a small rebound over the weekend, but since the direction is downward, the mid-term trend will definitely reach around 85000!

2 Chart 2 shows the weekly trend line of $BTC. When the price drops to 85000, the measurement indicates it will take approximately 30-35 days at the latest, and this level is also roughly the support level of the weekly ma100 (the measurement time is the latest time; the shorter the time, the lower the pin point).

Therefore, according to this method, before reaching 85000, the mid-term trend is suitable for a rebound short. If you want to build a position on the left side, it's best to wait until it breaks 90000!

#加密市场回调

The secondary market has been fluctuating these past two days. Those with more positions at the bottom can consider selling part of it for swing trading, leaving the rest to time. On the other hand, Binance Alpha keeps stirring things up, which is somewhat expected; the secondary market is no longer Binance's focus. To ensure profits, the platform mainly relies on contract market making; if nothing happens, no one will participate in contracts!

Additionally, I am a bit worried that BSC meme is also starting to stir things up again. To be honest, I really dislike this; what’s the point of building on a faded meme play? Building is just a breeding ground for Z P! The ones benefiting are definitely not the vast majority of retail investors. I am also a retail investor, so I absolutely do not recommend such things! It's simply a trading cancer!

After rebounding last night, the day fluctuated all day. According to the pre-market trends of US stocks, it is highly likely that there will be a fluctuating correction in the evening. $BTC small fluctuation range 90,000-94,000; recent major fluctuation range 86,200-96,000 (the probability of breaking 93,000 and touching 96,000 has increased);

As for the reasons for the second probe the day before yesterday and the explosive rise last night, I think there is no need to delve deep. The market trends, aside from following US stocks, are mainly driven by contracts: Before it fell to 80,000, I had mentioned the contract liquidation price using the contract liquidation method. There are two levels, one is 85,000 (see pinned post), and the other is 80,000 (see image one). After reaching 80,000, almost all positions with more than 5x leverage were liquidated, so the main force temporarily lost the motivation to push down, as the profits from contracts far exceed those from spot market dumping;

To start the next market trend, a period of consolidation is necessary, which is to build momentum: Simply put, it is necessary to accumulate enough short and long positions, and the main force will then determine the direction of the next market trend based on the accumulated long and short positions!

Since the short-term trend is fluctuating, one only needs to go long at the support level or short at the resistance level. Looking at the first probe at 80,600 and the second probe at 83,800, the lows are gradually rising, with two lows forming an upward trend line. Before the trend line breaks, I prefer to touch the trend line to go long, and reduce positions at the major resistance level. From the weekly volume analysis, after a volume increase and then a decrease in volume rebound, there still needs to be a low volume bearish candle to indicate the end of the selling pressure. Therefore, there may be a third probe of the trend line, with points at 86,200-87,000;

#BTC走势分析

The US stock market opened up 1 point in the evening, and $btc also surged by 6-7% instantly. Some altcoins also saw significant increases. Currently, the US stock market is in a correction phase, making it unsuitable to chase the rise. The current market is characterized by sharp increases and decreases; even if it moves independently, it is still a fluctuating upward trend. Therefore, for those who missed the opportunity to add positions at the low, it is better to wait for a stable correction!

The four coins mentioned at 8 o'clock (see image one) have also shown good gains:

$FARTCOIN $FET increased by over 20% after 8 o'clock, and $wld also rose by 15%, which is a decent swing. Sell part of it, and look for opportunities to swing again after the correction!

Yesterday, U.S. stocks opened low and rose high, with recent fluctuations being the main theme. Similarly, the fluctuation range in the cryptocurrency market has emerged, and we can also trade around the upper and lower limits; the only standout is the AI meme sector:

Previously, there was a $ARC with a 9-fold increase, and then another $pinpin with an 11-fold increase. Unfortunately, my ARC was previously damaged, and the remaining $SWARMS and $FARTCOIN have not increased much. However, as long as Nvidia continues to rebound, the AI sector may still have the potential for another wave of market movement;

As for which one will be the next tenfold? It's hard to judge at the moment. The AI meme gained popularity in November last year and started to plummet in mid-December. After a year of consolidation, those that are still alive should also start to move. There are quite a few AI coins in the secondary market, such as the leading $WLD and $FET, which seem worth a small position to bet on Nvidia's rhythm by the end of the year!

At 5 a.m. on Monday, there was no impact from the U.S. stock market, leading to a sudden drop in $BTC to 84756. It can be considered a second test; we'll see the trend of the U.S. stock market this week.

December is the month for fund settlement, and generally, new year plans will start to take shape around Christmas (which is also New Year's in foreign countries); additionally, recently, the University of Tokyo has been cracking down hard on stablecoin trading, making it more difficult for new investors to enter the market. However, from a broader perspective, it is indeed necessary to strike down on this, as the current cryptocurrency space is no longer suitable for newcomers.

Cases like 1011, where even the roots of new investors are cut, have happened once, and there will be a second and third time. Such terrifying rates of going to zero, compared to increasingly smaller gains, suggest that for large funds, it is better to return to gold and the stock market, as at least they won't drop more than 90% overnight. Since the speculators like to destroy, they should be given some medicine; if you like to cut the roots of new investors, I will blow up the ground for you.

So my stance is that the University of Tokyo is right!

Now in the cryptocurrency space, there are countless altcoins, with thousands of meme coins appearing daily. 99% of VC coins peak right after they launch and do nothing to pump the market. Inferior coins have attracted too much capital in the market; it would be better when all the altcoins are wiped out, leaving only a few mainstream ones!

So, as long as a large number of altcoins have not died off and regulation is not enforced, it is highly likely that there won't be any crazy bull markets in the future; there will only be fluctuations within a certain range. To make money, solid trading skills are required!

In the next two years, every 4-6 months of bear market could bring about a wave of mainstream trends with 50%-100% gains. The number of coins that can achieve tenfold increases will continue to decrease; to earn more, one needs to know how to shift positions or have a keen eye for gold!

Back to the market situation, for now, let's observe the trend of the U.S. stock market this week while also watching if the 81000 level can hold for a second test. If it can hold, the recent fluctuation range will be 81000 to 92000; if it cannot hold, it will continue to decline in a downtrend!

#加密市场回调

$BTC has rebounded directly from 80600 to nearly 92000, an increase of 14%; $eth has risen from 2623 to 3071, an increase of 17%. This rebound, compared to the continuous decline of the previous period, is quite reassuring, at least in the short term, there won't be a new low;

On Monday, I thought there would be a second probe before rebounding, but as it turns out, thanks to the increased probability of interest rate cuts in December, we saw a small V-shaped rebound. Of course, it’s not considered a reversal yet. I’ve mentioned before that a complete trend reversal requires looking at the 96000 position. Now it’s still below 92000, so there’s still some distance from the reversal point; currently, Bitcoin and the U.S. stock market are also showing signs of volatile corrections, and we’ll need to wait and see the trend after the fluctuations;

This position is definitely not suitable for adding positions again. During the previous decline, I used a pyramid-style position addition method at 95000, 90000, 85000, and 80000 (with a ratio of 0.5-0.5-0.5-1.2). I have increased my position by 2.7 layers and have made a profit, and today I reduced 1 layer, which I will use for flexible trading;

For spot trading, the bear market is quite painful because opportunities are not plentiful. Moreover, compared to Bitcoin, it is highly unlikely to have another crazy bull market in the future, and the magnitude of movements will not be as significant as in previous years. Therefore, whether one can make money depends on whether they can handle short to medium-term trading. Those who can't, especially beginners, need to train their trading skills because trading will gradually become the norm!

The US stock market is expected to open higher later, approaching 1.8%. Currently, there's a slight pullback, while $btc has been in a pullback state since the afternoon. Even if the US stock market rallies tonight, it still won't change the trend of testing 80,000 again. Therefore, in the short trend, the cryptocurrency market may not necessarily follow the US stock market, and there is a possibility of timing differences: for example, a morning surge may prematurely consume the benefits of the US stock market, and when the US stock market rises, it might make a false move before continuing to pull back!

For such false moves, besides paying attention to the US stock market, we also need to make a judgment on the K-line movements of Bitcoin itself, and not rely entirely on the US stock market!

The short-term trend is still to wait for the results of the second test before taking action!

With no pressure from the US stock market, $BTC rebounded well over the weekend, almost reaching 87000, just one step away from the first resistance level of 87500 on the daily chart. If it stands above, the rebound can rise to the next level. Therefore, before the US stock market opens at 10:30 tomorrow night, it may maintain a slight rebound within a fluctuating range. Whether the US stock market will test again next week to drive $BTC to test 80000 again is a key point in recent trading.

Maintaining the second test of 80000 represents a short-term stop of the decline. As for the mid-term reversal point, it is at 96000. If it stands above 96000 later, it indicates that the mid-term trend has shifted from decline to rise.

Today's secondary market also had a slight rebound, with mainstream assets generally rising by 5-10 points, which should largely come from retail investors' bottom-fishing behavior. There hasn't been a significant sector effect in the leading stocks. The somewhat eye-catching AI sector had $ARC a few days ago, and today there is $pippin, while mining machine-related $ZEC is still fluctuating widely at high levels as previously judged.

Although I didn't catch the biggest gain today, the limit order from two days ago when it hit 80000 was also close to the low points of the past two days. Today's rebound is enough to offset some of the floating losses. Whether it's the mainstream rebound or the account funds' rebound, both can boost one's confidence. Having confidence is actually very important in trading; without confidence, there will be no execution power. Traders also need the results of the short-term rebound to tell themselves that adding positions during the decline is the right thing to do!

Of course, this doesn't mean blindly adding positions is okay, especially for beginners. Two points need to be noted:

1. Position management: Be willing to reduce positions at high points and don't be afraid to sell off because 99.9% of trading is about selling off. Only the main force can sell at the highest point! Only by reducing positions at high levels can there be room and courage to add positions during a decline!

2. Emotional management: Don't regret selling off. Being able to capture a segment of the market and make a profit is success. A great trader doesn't capture the entire trend; instead, they can make profits in each wave of the market. Repeatedly making profits in this way is the ultimate trading strategy!

Encouraging fellow traders and reminding myself!

$arc recently has been really strong. Last year, on-chain aimeme, apart from $virtual being able to perform, everything else has dropped. Only $ARC can pull back 4 times from the bottom. Take $AI16Z and $SWARMS for example; these two founders were born from grassroots, and as soon as they gained some fame, they indefinitely dumped their tokens. Once they exchanged for money, they never invested back, releasing one token after another. Essentially, they are just scams. Such founders should be blacklisted directly. At the end of August, after pushing $ARC and $SWARMS, they were all wiped out again on September 11!

On weekends, without the interference of U.S. stocks, Bitcoin and Ethereum also had no major selling pressure. There were only a few coins performing guerrilla tactics, but this type is completely unpredictable and too hard to catch. You can only rely on luck!

For example, the performance of $BCH yesterday and today has been quite good. This can be considered the largest fork of $BTC, and it belongs to the old mainstream. After the fork controversy in 2018, Bitcoin forks slowly became marginalized, but the main force behind this coin has always been present. After all, Bitcoin is a perennial tree, and its fork coins still have a strong vitality. When the market is down and even MA doesn't recognize anything, perhaps the market will return to Bitcoin itself in search of faith. I also don't know if other Bitcoin-related or fork coins will stir up anything. It might be good to observe this sector for a while!

The U.S. stock market rebounded across the board after touching the weekly MA20 last night, especially the Dow Jones and S&P, which surpassed the Nasdaq from the previous night. The differences among these three major indexes are: the Nasdaq represents technology innovation stocks, the Dow Jones represents traditional industry giants, and the S&P encompasses various industries representing the overall U.S. stock market. The simultaneous rebound of the three major indexes indicates favorable short-term data. If next Tuesday tests this week's low, a short-term rebound will likely occur;

After $BTC touched 80600, it rebounded to 85600 in a short time, followed by fluctuations and corrections, with a need to retest 80,000 again;

The monthly chart for $BTC has shown a death cross above the zero axis, indicating that the medium-term direction is definitely downward with fluctuations, while the weekly chart shows a declining state with increased volume. There is a demand for a rebound, but the signal is not strong enough. In the short term, fluctuations are expected, and it is hoped that after the fluctuations, there will be a rebound before the end of the year, avoiding a stressful year;

From the market rebound situation last night, the secondary market is actually average, but a few cryptocurrencies like Binance Alpha are quite strong, especially $TRUST which reached nearly 5 times the high this morning and $MMT close to 2 times; there are also several others that have doubled. This is actually not hard to understand, as after contract liquidations, continuing to decline or cooling down will definitely cause the exchanges to incur the biggest losses, so it is necessary to create market conditions for continued trading!

As for the secondary market, after testing 80,000 again without breaking, we will see. For those with light positions, whether from a long-term investment or short-term trading perspective, it’s worth adding some positions to try!

#BTC

80600.00 Came so quickly, and this integer 80600 has no decimals or fractions, what does it mean? Is it a code for price levels?

From the perspective of multi-position liquidation in the oscillation range, nominally, $BTC was fully liquidated with more than 5x leverage, and $ETH was fully liquidated with more than 3x leverage; while the total network liquidation statistics show that the intraday liquidation amount is nearly $2.2 billion, this is comparable to the 312 incident, and from the contract perspective, continuing to push down has no profit, at least during the unilateral downward process, the increase in positions for short positions is definitely more than for long positions! This is the contract data aspect!

Looking at the technical side: the daily line has not yet closed, and the volume bars show a trend of doubling, but it is far from reaching the standard of explosive volume (over 2 times yesterday's volume bars, and not lower than 1010 daily trading volume) and the price needs to wait for the close, whether it will close above 86700; if it is merely a doubling and closes as a doji, then the rebound signal is not strong enough, likely a small rebound followed by a period of short-term oscillation!

The US stock market has not opened yet this evening, but it is just a needle's distance from the starting point of this round of the market at 74500, how much further can it drop in the short term? The afternoon orders were all filled, and the short-term increase in positions is sufficient; the rest is just to wait for the high and low points of the range to seek opportunities for a swing!

The Nasdaq index last night took a dive, returning to its original form, dropping to the weekly MA20 position, creating a recent new low, with volume increasing while prices fall, making rebound signals not very clear!

As for $BTC, it is also seeing increased volume with falling prices, and there are no obvious signals yet: generally, there needs to be a huge downward shadow or a subsequent appearance of a doji or inverted hammer combined with daily and weekly volume expansion to signal a good opportunity;

On the 14th, in my pinned post, I mentioned that the liquidation price for contracts in the lower range of 106000 is around 85000. I initially thought it would fluctuate downwards and take some time, but unexpectedly it hit that mark in just a week. Logically, when reaching this position, many long positions being liquidated should create a spike, followed by some shorts taking profit leading to a rapid rebound. However, the candlestick chart seems to show no signs of this, so I have to consider the possibility of liquidating in the next fluctuation range, which is the lower edge of 99000, with the liquidation price at 80000;

But since it is approaching the 85000 position, I still placed half a layer of buy orders 3-5 points below the current price and a full layer of buy orders 10-15 points below (to prevent Bitcoin from hitting 80000).

Why place buy orders without clear signals?

First, the 85000 position is nearly 40% away from the high point, and the cost-effectiveness meets the conditions for regular investment: previously, over 100000, so many brave individuals dared to buy, it makes no sense to become cowards now that the price has fallen significantly from the previous high! Even if it returns to the previous high in the long term, isn't there still a 40% upside?

Secondly, many cryptocurrencies are nearly forming a secondary bottom divergence on the daily chart. For example, in Figure 2: $ETC
The daily MACD crossover point below the zero axis at 1-2 is a first divergence, while 2-3 (not yet forming a crossover point) is a second divergence, and several crossover points are continually creating new lows. This means we are just one golden cross below the zero axis away from the second divergence, although three divergences may occur, the second divergence already meets the conditions for regular investment!

Adding positions in the absence of clear signals is also due to the fact that I cleared most of my positions before the big drop. Slowly calculating, even if it hits 80000, with all orders filled, I still have less than 6 layers of positions, with enough positions to guard against black swans! Therefore, the situation of adding positions still needs to be determined based on one's own position situation!

#加密市场回调

Last night, after the Nasdaq once again tested support, it rebounded in the second half of the night. At the same time, NVIDIA's positive earnings report led to a strong rebound in tech stocks, and the AI sector in the cryptocurrency market actually followed NVIDIA (which I mentioned back in July-August). Therefore, many cryptocurrencies in the AI sector performed well;

For example, $FET, $AI, meme coins like $ALCH and $FARTOIN, I only bought $FET, which had been at a loss for the past few days, but last night a bullish candle turned the loss into a gain! So I believe I was right in saying that at this stage, we shouldn’t expect too much rebound from $BTC and $ETH; as long as they don’t make new lows, other mainstream or some altcoins have room for growth, for instance, $ATOM also had a bullish candle that directly returned to this month's starting point;

Later at 10:30 PM is the U.S. stock market opening time. At this point, there is a bit of fear of falling; it’s safer to wait until the evening U.S. stocks go through half of the market before assessing. As per past customs, it usually corrects in the first half of the night and rebounds close to 4 AM. Experienced traders who stay up late have actually made multiple trades back and forth!

Tonight, as long as the U.S. stock market's major index doesn’t continue to plummet and create new lows, the probability of a rebound in the near future is increasing. Some cryptocurrencies are actually eager to move; once a rebound occurs, the leading coins could potentially achieve a 5x or even 10x increase within a few days. I can't predict which one it will be, but I will allocate a small position to take a gamble, for example, in the AI sector.
If a rebound trend is confirmed later, potential coins will be updated synchronously!

#山寨币市场回暖

Last night, the NASDAQ tested the support level of the weekly MA20, and tonight at 10:30, it opened high and continued to rise. Currently, the rebound strength is stronger than in the past two days; as long as the U.S. stock market stays above the MA5 in the evening, it can breathe a sigh of relief for the week.

In contrast, in the cryptocurrency market, while the U.S. stock market is rebounding, the rebound strength of $BTC and $ETH remains weak. I just hope that by late night they can catch up. At this point, I don't expect Bitcoin or Ethereum to rebound much; as long as the U.S. stock market doesn't have any surprises, Bitcoin and Ethereum can stabilize and move sideways, providing room for other mainstream and altcoins to perform.

As for the rumors that the U.S. and U.K. governments have seized a large amount of Bitcoin, I feel that at the current price level, there is no need to worry too much. Bitcoin is already over 30% away from its peak, and Ethereum is over 40% away. Even if they need to sell, it wouldn't be at this price level; nobody is that foolish!

I haven't reduced my position today and am still waiting for a rebound. The more panicked the market gets, the stronger this feeling becomes for me. In trading, the candlestick part only accounts for one-third; the other two-thirds are determined by capital flow and market sentiment, which are difficult to quantify accurately and involve a bit of intuition. At this time, I choose to stay true to my feelings!

Still, as I said, even if a rebound occurs, it doesn't mean that the trend has reversed. So if a rebound comes, I will still sell off a large portion of my position during the rebound!

#加密市场观察

The Nasdaq reached 22560 at 5 AM, marking a second test of last week's low of 22436 (monthly support), followed by a rebound. Meanwhile, $BTC continued to dip after the US stock market closed, even breaking 90,000, which likely caused a wave of panic selling this morning!

Although the medium-term trend of the US stock market is a high-level correction, it is customary for the monthly top to oscillate a bit before breaking. Given the rebound after the second test last night, I still maintain my view from yesterday that the US stock market is likely to stop falling and rebound this week;

Looking at $BTC, breaking 90,000 indicates extremely panicked market sentiment. However, in reverse, during the massive drop on October 11, the major coins like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana didn't drop as much compared to other mainstream and altcoins. This recent decline has seen new lows repeatedly, while many other mainstream altcoins from the October 11 crash haven't even broken their previous lows from that period. Therefore, this can be seen as a catch-up decline of the three major coins! (I mentioned this on October 12)

Secondly, after Bitcoin broke 95,000, most other major coins, aside from a few, haven't dropped significantly, and the rebound strength is getting stronger. Some coins even show independent trends. For example, using my own position data: when I bottomed out yesterday at Bitcoin 94,000, it has now broken 90,000, and my account's total amount has hardly changed;

Thus, I will continue to execute my phase accumulation plan to bet on a rebound. Moreover, the liquidation point I calculated for Bitcoin in my pinned post is around 85,000. Even if another spike occurs, I will continue to add to my position, currently around 4 layers of positions, expecting to add up to 5-6 layers!

Of course, adding positions doesn't mean I expect a significant surge afterward; it's just to bet on a retaliatory rebound. If there is a rebound, I will gradually exit, leaving only 2 layers for long-term positions!

#山寨币市场回暖

$ZEN $XVG has reached a resistance level but was mistakenly written as a support level!

U.S. stocks opened lower but rebounded after the opening, while $BTC fell pre-market and then bounced back with the U.S. stock market. In the short term, we can breathe a little easier. This week, there is a significant probability of a volatile rebound following the U.S. stocks, so continue to enter some positions to capitalize on this rebound. Currently, I am focusing on the resistance levels of 98,000 and 100,000!

As for the targets, I recommend those that can continue to swing trades on the 12th. Additionally, $ZEN and $XVG have mid-term fluctuating upward patterns on the monthly and weekly charts, so I entered a bit of a base position this noon. Currently, it has reached the support level. For coins I am optimistic about, I always enter a base position first and then add more in batches when there is a pullback! This method of building positions is relatively easy to execute!

With relatively few fans, even if someone follows along, it won't cause a heavy load and lead to a crash, so I dare to recommend a bit of coins. Thank you for your support and fellow travelers. Of course, recommendations carry risks and there is a possibility of losses! Please consider carefully!

#zen #xvg

$UNI The 12th prompt callback can be established between 6-7, with two hits to 6.9 in the past two days, effectively providing two opportunities to establish a position. Currently at 8.1, it still shows an upward momentum, which translates to an 18% increase;

In a weak market, the chance for a 20% rebound is quite precious, especially for mainstream cryptocurrencies that can accommodate large funds. Grabbing 20% allows for the reduction of some positions, and with continuous back-and-forth trading, the compounding effect will surely increase the number of coins. If operations are done well, it's not impossible to reduce the holding cost to zero!

#UNI

0.4 is the current support level, 0.33 is the previous low support level. The last point should be between 0.2 and 0.165 (the lower bounds of the two fluctuation ranges of the contract are 0.2 and 0.33, and the contract liquidation points are 0.2 and 0.165)