Bitcoin’s post-October consolidation is not being driven by renewed long-term accumulation. Instead, on-chain activity shows continued dominance by short-term participants operating within a narrow valuation band.
This article primarily relies on the Highly Active Address, Inflow Count & MVRV chart, with selective reference to exchange inflow behaviour for confirmation. The interaction between activity and valuation is central to understanding the current regime.
Over the past month, inflows from highly active addresses have remained elevated, signalling sustained participation from speculative traders. However, unlike earlier in the year, activity spikes have become less extreme and less frequent. This moderation matters: it suggests that while speculation remains present, urgency and leverage are declining.
At the same time, MVRV has stabilised in a relatively tight band between roughly 1.55 and 1.65. This range reflects a market that is neither deeply undervalued nor meaningfully profitable for the average holder. Rising activity without corresponding valuation appreciation implies churn rather than conviction. Capital is being recycled among short-term participants rather than transitioning to stronger hands.
This dynamic helps explain why rallies struggle to extend and sell-offs fail to accelerate. Speculators continue to trade the range, while longer-term holders largely remain inactive. From a macro perspective, this behaviour aligns with a liquidity-constrained environment where risk appetite exists but remains fragile.
Written by Novaque Research
