CryptoQuant Quicktake

This week brings a key signal from LTH that shouldn't be overlooked.

The chart shows the monthly net change sum in the supply categorized as LTH.

But my opinion is that this term can be misleading, it’s not the address that matters, but rather the age of the coins held. In reality, “Long-Term Supply” would be a more accurate label.

Supply is considered long-term held only if the coins have remained unmoved for more than 6 months. In other words, a coin must remain untouched for half a year before being classified as LTH. —

That being said, the current surge in this long-term supply, while BTC trades above $100 000, clearly shows a strong will to hold.

And for good reason as coins that are now entering the LTH category were all purchased in the $95 000 – $107 000 price range.

In Bitcoin’s entire history, such a strong commitment to holding has only occurred 6 times. This makes it a powerful signal that should absolutely be factored into any strategy.

Written by Darkfost

Binance dominates the Bitcoin and Ethereum perpetual futures market among crypto exchanges measured by Open Interest (OI). The exchange open interest share is at 30% for Bitcoin and 31% for ETH, equivalent to $9.8 billion and $5.1 billion respectively. Other exchanges with high OI include Bybit, Gate.io, HTX and OKX.

Binance shows the faster OI expansion in periods where Bitcoin and ETH rally significantly, indicating that traders heavily use the exchange to gain Bitcoin and ETH exposure. For Bitcoin, this was the case in November 2024 and may 2025, as the price crossed the $100K mark and reached new all-time highs. In the case of ETH, Binance showed the fastest OI expansion in the same periods as the price rallied 73% and 44% respectively.

Binance also shows the most activity amid market volatility. On June 21, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East suddenly escalated, Binance showed by far the largest decrease in OI as prices fell– $2.1 billion–, indicating traders closed their long positions in order to take profits off the table.

A high open interest suggests deep liquidity, attracting large traders due to better execution and tighter spreads. It reflects trader confidence in the platform's reliability, fees, execution speed, and available leverage.

Written by CQ Research

The recent fluctuations in Bitcoin's price, combined with notable changes in open interest, indicate a need for traders to exercise caution.

1. Binance Open Interest (OI) Hits 6% for the Third Time in Two Months :

* Recent data from Binance indicates that the 24-hour Open Interest (OI) percentage change has surged above 6% for the third time in two months (May–June 2025), highlighting a significant pattern.

* This pattern suggests historically coincided with areas of profit-taking as highlighted on the chart.

* The previous instances around May 26th and June 10th saw subsequent dips or consolidations in the Bitcoin price.

* This recurring pattern suggests that large inflows into leveraged positions often precede periods where short-term gains are realized, leading to potential price pullbacks or sideways movement as market participants de-risk.

2. Sharp Decline in Long-Term Holder (LTH) Net Position Realized Cap :

* The LTH Net Position Realized Cap—a metric tracking the realized value of Bitcoin held by long-term investors—has plummeted from over $57 billion to just $3.5 billion.

This dramatic reduction indicates that:

- Long-term holders are taking profits, reducing their exposure to Bitcoin after significant price appreciation.

- Market sentiment among LTHs is shifting, possibly due to macroeconomic.

* Their actions often reflect a more strategic and informed view of market conditions, making their reduced exposure a notable signal.

Market Implications: Caution Ahead, But No Immediate Bearish Signal

While the decline in LTH holdings and the repeated OI spikes suggest heightened market activity, they do not necessarily guarantee an imminent Bitcoin price drop.

Instead, these signals highlight:

* Potential near-term profit-taking zones, where traders may lock in gains.

* Increased speculative activity, which could lead to short-term volatility.

Written by Amr Taha

This bubble chart, based on total exchange trading volume, visualizes the market. The size of each circle represents trading volume, while the color indicates the rate of volume change.

Decreasing volume: Cooling

Little to no change: Neutral

Increasing volume: Overheating

Sharp increase: Extreme Overheating

Currently, Bitcoin is near its all-time high, but the market shows a cooling trend without signs of overheating.

To break past its all-time high, macroeconomic catalysts like interest rate cuts or regulatory easing may be needed. However, the market has already established a stable foundation.

Thus, a strategy of patience, keeping an eye on major market events, and waiting for opportunities seems promising.

Written by Crypto Dan

Bitcoin’s supply is flowing upstream away from weak hands toward big money.

Latest on-chain snapshot reveals 👇🧵

1.Retail (<1 BTC):

📉 1.69M BTC (↓ 54.5K BTC YoY)

Avg. outflow: ~220 BTC/day

🧠 Correlation with price (12m): –0.89

2.Large Holders (≥1K BTC):

📈 16.57M BTC (↑ 507.7K BTC YoY)

Avg. inflow: ~1.46K BTC/day

🔗 Correlation with price: +0.86

3.Institutions are absorbing ~7× more BTC than retail is selling.

Post-halving issuance? Only 450 BTC/day.

📉 Supply squeeze is real.

4.Retail FOMO hasn’t kicked in yet.

Unlike past tops, small holders keep selling.

🧨 Signal that the bull run still has room.

🔍 Data source: @cryptoquant_com

Written by IT Tech

On June 24, Binance’s Net Taker Volume surged above $100 million for the first time since June 9.

While the bullish spike in Binance Net Taker Volume may indicative of robust buying momentum, such surges are often attributed to aggressive retail buying or the forced unwinding of over-leveraged short positions.

In these instances, the spike does not necessarily signify sustainable demand but rather short-term volatility caused by liquidations or speculative FOMO.

This milestone aligns with total stablecoin net outflows from derivative exchanges surpassing $1.25 billion, representing the largest capital withdrawal from these platforms since mid-May.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Hints at Rate Cuts :

* during the second day of his semiannual testimony before Congress, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that “future commercial agreements could allow the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates.”

* This marked a notable shift in tone, hinting at potential monetary easing if certain economic conditions align.

Swiss Franc Hits Multi-Year High as Safe-Haven Demand Surges :

* The Swiss Franc (CHF) broke above 1.24 against the USD for the first time in years, reinforcing its reputation as a traditional safe-haven currency during times of global economic or geopolitical uncertainty.

Decline in U.S. 2-Year Treasury Yields :

explained on chart.

Conclusion: Is Bitcoin on the Verge of a Pullback?

* Jerome Powell’s recent indication that the Federal Reserve may begin considering rate cuts introduces macroeconomic uncertainty and signals a possible shift toward risk-off sentiment.

* The $1.25 billion withdrawal of stablecoins from derivative exchanges considerably undermines the structural support for new long positions. Without an influx of fresh capital into leveraged products, this has historically served as a precursor to market corrections.

Written by Amr Taha

Despite recent price swings, the cost basis—or Realized Price—of short-term holders (STH) continues to rise steadily.

Given that STH accounts for over 40% of Bitcoin's market capitalization, their average cost basis plays a crucial role in identifying short-term support and resistance levels.

Currently, the Realized Price sits at

🔴 $106.2k for the 1w–1m cohort,

🟠 $95k for 1m–3m, and

🟡 $93.3k for 3m–6m holders.

Taking their respective Realized Cap weights into account, the weighted average cost basis for all STH is approximately $97.7k.

With price hovering near the psychologically important $100k level, failure to hold this line could trigger panic selling from short-term holders.

😎 In the end, Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory may depend on whether the $97k–$100k range can hold as strong support. It’s a level worth watching closely.

Written by Yonsei_dent

Despite recent geopolitical risks, Bitcoin has rebounded strongly, reclaiming the $106k level. However, the momentum shown by the MVRV Ratio appears to be stalling.

The MVRV Ratio measures Bitcoin’s market value relative to its realized (intrinsic) value — a useful gauge for identifying overvaluation. Notably, the slope and turning points of the 365DMA have historically aligned with major market cycle tops. Right now, that slope is flattening, suggesting a potential slowdown in momentum.

This doesn’t mean a downtrend is imminent. But it could signal that we are entering the late stage of the bull cycle, making it crucial to focus on capital allocation and risk management.

Historically, bull markets have often ended with explosive price surges — a “final blaze” before the peak. While tactical opportunities may remain, the long-term signals from on-chain data should not be ignored.

Written by Yonsei_dent

In recent years, the TRON network has become one of the top choices for USDT transfers. Thanks to its low fees and fast transaction speeds, it appeals to both individual users and institutional players. But what’s really driving this explosive growth?

Looking at the data from two angles provides a clearer picture. The first chart analyzes total transfer volume: since mid-2024, USDT transfers over $1 million have surged dramatically, now exceeding $215 billion. Transfers between $100K and $1M are also climbing, currently around $195 billion. This clearly signals a strong institutional presence, with the total volume reaching $610 billion.

On the other hand, the second chart focuses on transaction counts. Smaller transactions between $100 and $10,000 dominate the network in terms of volume of activity. For instance, transfers between $100 and $1,000 account for over 23 million transactions — highlighting TRON’s widespread use among retail users.

In summary, TRON is not just growing in raw volume — it’s expanding through a diverse user base. While retail traders lead in transaction count, institutions dominate in volume. This dual engine of adoption is what makes TRON a key infrastructure layer for stablecoin movement in today’s crypto market.

Written by BorisVest

Ethereum Approaches 50-Day EMA — A Breakout Could Trigger a Move to $4,000

Ethereum has once again reached its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), but a decisive breakout has yet to occur. I believe this breakout is imminent. For confirmation, we need to see daily closes above the $2,500–$2,600 range.

Once ETH breaks above the 50-day EMA with strong momentum, I expect the $2,800 resistance level to be tested quickly in the short term.

Previously, ETH also consolidated between $2,100 and $2,800 for a period of time. After breaking out strongly from this horizontal rectangular range, ETH surged to $4,000. Now, if we can decisively break above the $2,800 resistance again, I believe ETH can quickly resume its journey toward the $4,000 target.

Additionally, make sure to review my previous key Ethereum analysis, where I mentioned that the 50-week EMA remains the last major barrier preventing ETH from an explosive move.

As always, be aware that geopolitical developments—especially those involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran—can cause sudden volatility in BTC and ETH prices. Please avoid using leverage during this period and stay cautious in the face of potential market turbulence.

Written by İbrahim COŞAR

Bitcoin Successfully Reclaims the 50-Day EMA

Bitcoin has once again managed to reclaim the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

For now, the 50-day EMA remains the key indicator to watch, as it provides crucial signals for identifying bullish and bearish trends in BTC price action.

One notable pattern I’ve observed in BTC’s price chart is that during corrections following upward trends, the 50-day EMA often acts as strong support. However, when this level is briefly broken to the downside and then quickly reclaimed, BTC typically experiences a sharp rally of approximately 10% to 20%.

Currently, we are seeing a similar setup. After a recent uptrend, BTC retraced and briefly closed below the 50-day EMA, only to reclaim it shortly afterward. For the past three days, BTC has been closing strongly above the 50-day EMA.

Based on this analysis, I believe BTC could reach the $120K level in the short term.

That said, geopolitical developments—particularly any positive or negative news involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran—could trigger sudden volatility in BTC’s price. Please avoid using leverage during this period and remain cautious in the face of potential market swings.

Written by İbrahim COŞAR

Two weeks ago I called the STH-Realized Price the “fault line” to watch. It’s still doing its job—here’s what the tape now says.

I. The metric refresher

STH Realized Price (STH-RP) = break-even for coins < 155 days old—where short-term conviction flips to fear.

II. Why this slow grind higher matters

Psychology upgrade: STH-RP is inching toward six figures. Each uptick hardens $100 k as the “fair value” floor in the collective psyche.

Where the line sits now?

- Spot: ≈ $106.4 k

- Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH-RP): $98 k

- Premium (Spot ÷ STH-RP − 1): +7.2 %.

- Long-Term Holder Realized Price (LTH-RP): $32.0 k (unchanged trend).

III. Why this creeping blue curve keeps mattering

• Price Memory – Every ~$500 uptick in STH-RP resets the “new buyers’ comfort floor.” It’s now flirting with six-figure territory; the crowd’s mental stop-loss rises with it.

• Dynamic Support – Look at the chart: two tags of the blue line in the last 10 days, two sharp bounces. That’s classic bull-phase structure; sellers dry up the moment we kiss cost-basis.

• Risk Compression – Shrinking premium = less overheated froth. In prior cycles, a <10 % gap has preceded the next leg up once open-interest rebuilds.

• Veteran Supply Lock-Up – LTH-RP is still 3× lower than spot; coins in cold storage remain “strong hands” (no incentive to dump). Supply overhang simply isn’t there.

TL;DR

The blue line is climbing relentlessly; as long as BTC lives above it, the prevailing tide is still higher-lows, higher-highs. Lose it on a daily close, and we get our first real gut-check since April—otherwise the bull engine is merely cooling its cylinders.

Written by onchained

Around 98% of BTC sent from miners to Binance comes from the BTC.com mining pool. The behavior is clear in the chart:

🔹 When the Bitcoin price rises, BTC.com’s flow to Binance increases, signaling profit-taking by miners.

🔹 When the flow decreases, miners show confidence in the price, choosing to hold BTC instead of selling.

💡 What do the data tell us?

✅ BTC.com miners are highly strategic: they sell during price peaks and reduce flows during sustained bullish phases.

✅ The BTC.com flow to Binance has dropped sharply in recent months, even with Bitcoin above $100K.

✅ This may indicate expectations of new highs and less selling pressure from miners in the short term.

🌊 Stay alert! Miners are among the smartest players in the market. Watching their moves helps us understand where we are in the cycle.

Written by joaowedson

From Friday, June 22, 2025, until Sunday the 24th, prices across the entire crypto ecosystem plummeted. Bitcoin dropped from $106,441 to $98,215.77, losing more than $8,000 in just 48 hours. This crash was attributed to the Middle East conflict, but was there truly panic among investors?

On-Chain metrics allow us to analyze market behavior with precision. One of them, the Bitcoin NVT Ratio, measures the relationship between market capitalization and real network usage. Low values indicate undervaluation. During this drop, the average NVT was 45.04, and its 30-day EMA stood at 38, both within undervaluation territory.

Another key metric is the Bitcoin Realized Cap, which reflects the total capital invested in BTC based on the price at which each UTXO last moved. Instead of declining, it increased from $946.073 billion to $946.702 billion, a rise of $629 million, disproving the panic-selling narrative.

Moreover, there were no significant sales from whales (1k to 10k BTC) or humpback whales (+10k BTC). The Bitcoin UTXO Value Bands metric, which segments holdings by wallet size, showed stability and even accumulation among high-value addresses. In fact, some slightly increased their holdings, reinforcing the idea that large holders were not behind the price drop.

Finally, most tokens showed simultaneous declines with identical structure, pointing to a coordinated action from a single origin. All signs indicate the involvement of market makers, entities capable of triggering massive movements across the ecosystem for their own gain—and that of the CEXs.

Signed by Carmelo Alemán, Verified On-Chain Analyst at Cryptoquant

📲 Connect with me:

♦️ X: @oro_crypto♦️ YouTube: OroCryptoCanal♦️ Email: [email protected]

For collaborations, questions, or feedback—feel free to reach out.

Written by Carmelo_Alemán

Funding rates on Binance have turned noticeably negative (-0,0033) just as Bitcoin has quickly bounced back since this past weekend.

Negative funding rates indicate that the majority of open positions are currently short, as investors doubt the sustainability of the recent move.

While this might seem bearish at first glance, markets tend to move against the majority, especially when it comes to an overcrowded short side.

It’s important to understand that the natural bias among traders leans toward longing the market, which makes today’s signal particularly noteworthy.

Looking back to September 2024, each time funding rates on Binance dipped into negative territory, whether in the short or medium term, the market consistently moved in the opposite direction.

The only exception occurred during the announcement of new tariff policies, which temporarily disrupted market dynamics.

If shorts continue to pile up on Binance, they could end up fueling the rally that began earlier this week.

Written by Darkfost

ETF companies usually create the strongest buying pressure in the market. If the decline in Bitcoin ETF volume isn’t part of a strategic move, it suggests that ETF companies’ demand for Bitcoin is decreasing. When their demand drops, the buying pressure on the BTC order book weakens, which can lead to a price decline.

Unless the decreasing demand for Bitcoin is offset by a rising interest in Ethereum, this is a negative signal for crypto investors. As seen in the chart, there’s no positive divergence in Ethereum’s volume either — and this indicates that things could take a turn for the worse in the short term.

Written by theKriptolik

In the current context of low volatility and uncertain macro conditions, analyzing BTC inflows, rather than outflows, can often provide a more accurate picture of market sentiment, particularly on Binance, which continues to dominate trading volumes among major exchanges.

To reduce noise from such events like the recent escalation in tensions between Israel and Iran, a smoothed approach is essential.

Looking at the data from 2020 onward, the monthly average of BTC inflows to Binance stands around 12 000 BTC.

But today, even as Bitcoin trades above $105,000, monthly inflows have dropped to just 5 700 BTC, a historically low level, even lower than those recorded during the last bear market. It is almost three time lower than the first time BTC hit the $100 000 milestone.

By contrast, during the FTX collapse in late 2022, monthly inflows on Binance surged to around 24 000 BTC, reflecting panic and large-scale selling.

In fact, each significant inflow spike observed during this current cycle has closely aligned with local market tops, followed by short- to mid-term corrections.

This recurring pattern shows that Binance is a key platform where investors actively transact, and it reinforces the idea that inflow spikes are typically linked to selling pressure or fear-driven behavior.

In the current environment, the sharp drop in inflows strongly suggests that the market has shifted into a holding phase. Selling pressure is clearly subdued, and the data points to a growing appetite for long-term holding, which could lay the foundation for a short-term upward move.

Still, caution is warranted, the market remains fragile, and uncertainty continues to linger.

Written by Darkfost

On June 23rd, Binance experienced a significant wave of withdrawals, with over 4,000 BTC and 61,000 ETH flowing out of the exchange in a single day.

These indicate a potential shift in trader sentiment from short-term speculation to longer-term holding strategies.

Geopolitical Easing: Trump’s Ceasefire Announcement Between Iran and Israel :

* U.S. President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that Israel and Iran had reached a full ceasefire agreement, removing the immediate threat of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints.

* This announcement seems to have alleviated market concerns. A decrease in geopolitical risk frequently serves as a bullish driver for Bitcoin, which tends to thrive during periods of enhanced global stability when investor risk appetite grows.

📈 S&P 500 Reclaims 6,000 Level :

* Adding further confirmation to this broad shift in sentiment, the S&P 500 index reach above 6,000 for the first time since February 2025.

* The recovery of the SPX500 underscores investor confidence, and a decline in geopolitical risks—elements that together foster a favorable environment for cryptocurrency markets.

📉 Crude Oil Slumps -14%, Supporting Disinflation Narrative :

* In parallel, oil prices declined by more than 14%, a substantial and rapid drop.

* This move aligns with expectations of easing inflationary pressures globally.

* Lower fuel and energy costs feed directly into reduced production and transportation expenses, reinforcing the narrative that inflation may continue to decelerate.

🔚 Conclusion: A Pivotal Shift Favors Bitcoin Continuation :

The convergence of significant crypto outflows from Binance, falling oil prices, a bullish breakout in U.S. equities, and the reduction of Middle Eastern tensions presents a striking scenario.

With the geopolitical overhang removed, inflation easing, and macro markets stabilizing, Bitcoin is now well-positioned to resume its upward trajectory.

Written by Amr Taha

In early June, Tron’s (TRX) Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) reached 4.74, the highest reading in recent months. While there have been other instances of profit-taking, this spike stands out due to its size and context.

A SOPR of 4.74 indicates that the coins spent were sold at 4.74 times their original cost, a 374% profit. With TRX priced at $0.268 at the time, the average acquisition price for those coins would have been around $0.0566. The last time TRX traded at that level for an extended period was late 2022.

This suggests the movement came from long-term holders’ wallets that have remained inactive for nearly two years. The activity could be tied to early investors realizing gains, internal transfers, or reallocation decisions.

Written by maartunn

When market interest wanes, trading volume naturally declines. During these periods, the footprints of whales — their market buy and sell orders — tend to become more visible.

On Bybit, whale accumulation has historically appeared when overall market attention is low or when investor sentiment is dominated by fear. In many of these cases, their buying activity preceded actual upward price trends.

This pattern appears to be repeating now, having continued since the price bottom in April. Given this consistency, I believe the reliability of this signal is even stronger at the current stage.

Written by Mignolet