On December 4th, in the early morning, the cryptocurrency market showed a unilateral upward trend. Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced a slight pullback after a surge during the Asian trading session, but overall they maintained a strong consolidation pattern. Although the current price is deviating from the intraday high, the four-hour technical pattern indicates that bullish momentum has not yet exhausted, and a short-term pullback may present an entry opportunity for buying on dips.
Strong rise in the early morning, risk aversion sentiment temporarily eased
From midnight to early morning, Bitcoin started from a low of $91,733, reaching a high of $94,185, with an increase of nearly 2.7%. It then retraced to consolidate near the $93,000 round number. Ethereum also rose in tandem, climbing from $3,062 to $3,216, and is currently trading around $3,180, with limited short-term pullback.
The logic behind this round of rising is clear: market expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December have warmed up, combined with the risk aversion sentiment brought by the uncertainty of the Bank of Japan's policy, funds have flowed back into the liquidity-rich cryptocurrency market. In addition, the slight weakening of the US dollar index also provides breathing space for risk assets.
Technical outlook: The four-hour level maintains an upward channel
The current four-hour chart shows a typical oscillating upward structure:
Trend channel health: Prices are steadily operating within the upward channel, with all three Bollinger Bands diverging upwards simultaneously, and the width of the channel continues to expand with rising prices, indicating increased market volatility, creating favorable conditions for accelerated price increases in the next phase.
Momentum indicators are strong: The MACD fast and slow lines remain firmly above the zero axis in a strong region, with buying momentum continuously flowing in, and market confidence has been somewhat restored. At the same time, both KDJ and RSI indicators have entered the overbought zone, indicating that bullish momentum is quite abundant, but caution is also needed for the pullback pressure caused by short-term profit-taking.
Key level assessment: If Bitcoin can effectively hold above $93,000, the first target above will point to $94,500, with further pressure at $95,500 (previous dense trading area). For Ethereum, $3,200 has become a critical dividing line for short-term strength and weakness. A breakout is likely to test $3,270, with strong resistance above at the $3,300 round number.
Operational suggestion: Go long in line with the trend, pay attention to the strength of the pullback
The current market is still dominated by bulls. Although the overbought indicators suggest a risk of pullback, the overall trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to adhere to the idea of 'following the trend and positioning on dips.'
Bitcoin (BTC) strategy:
• Entry range: $92,500 - $93,000
• Stop loss setting: $91,800 (below the four-hour Bollinger Band middle line)
• Target: First target $94,500, second target $95,500
• Position management: It is recommended to control positions within 2-3 times leverage to avoid forced liquidation during increased volatility
Ethereum (ETH) strategy:
• Entry range: $3,170 - $3,200
• Stop loss setting: $3,120 (below the $3,150 support level)
• Target: First target $3,270, second target $3,300
• Risk warning: If unable to hold above $3,200, be wary of the risk of a pullback to $3,100
Risk warning: Overbought signals coexist with macro variables
Despite the positive technical outlook, investors should be wary of two major potential risks:
1. Overbought pullback risk: Both KDJ and RSI are in the overbought zone. If there is a lack of sustained buying in the afternoon session, prices may quickly fall back to around $92,000 for indicator repair.
2. Macroeconomic event disturbance: A Federal Reserve official will speak tonight, and any hints of a hawkish stance regarding the December meeting could trigger profit-taking by bulls. Additionally, the interlinked effects after the US stock market opens also need attention.
Conclusion: The oscillating upward pattern continues, waiting for a secondary confirmation
In summary, while the bullish momentum in the early session on December 4th has diminished, the overall upward trend has not yet ended. This stage is more suitable for short-term traders to buy low and sell high, while medium to long-term investors can wait for price pullbacks to confirm critical supports at $91,000 (BTC) and $3,050 (ETH) before positioning.
Remember, when going long in the overbought area, position management is more important than directional judgment. Controlling risk allows you to capture certainty opportunities amid volatility. #Bitcoin #Ethereum #TechnicalAnalysis #Cryptocurrency #DayTrading $BTC
